I remember in video games, the Nintendo GameCube sold the worst in the 6th gen not including the Sega Dreamcast which was DEAD after a couple years. Sony PlayStation 2 and the Microsoft Xbox were superior machines, but both companies were losing money in the beginning because manufacturing cost so much and Nintendo knew how to sell their first-party games at a premium and not drop it to $20 after a year in some greatest hits line. They also fought piracy the best.
This is how Apple is doing it. Who cares about volume sales when you take in more than HALF of the profits? Apple will NEVER really beat Samsung or Nokia at volume sales though. Their spectrum is too broad. I am curious how quickly apps downloading will decline in the future and if having an "ecosystem" will be necessary. Again, Nokia has no real ecosystem and they are still #1 in volume sales as of today.
Image
Piracy kills profits. It is happening in Android right now where you can easily get games for free that you are supposed to pay for. Remember when buying CD's were cool? Then illegal downloading killed that. And if you want movies or games, there is streaming and The Pirates Bay. Once people get ALL THE ESSENTIAL APPs they need, who knows if the software profits start drying up for Apple or anyone else? And Apple gets a 30% from app developers. I remember a decade ago when music was the #1 most illegally downloaded content. Now it is movies and porn.
Image
I think you're touching on a crucial bit here, how does one make "rich ecosystem" transform into "sustainable competitive advantage". Granted, Apple has dominance in the smartphone field, just like MSFT has in general (personal) computing. Thing is though, like you stated, what happens when the iOS market place is saturated? Not only will there be severe margin pressure (due to increased competition), but also an increased struggle for each new (potential) customer.
What will developers do? Well, i doubt they'll sit idly by and just say "it was fun while it lasted". Ironically, one of the main strengths of the iOS ecosystem - its size - will inevitably work towards re-enforcing others (e.g. the grass may not be as green, but there is a hell of a lot fewer cows grassing on it). Also, one has to acknowledge the current trend towards platform-independency, fueled both by technology itself (e.g. HTML5) and (for ex.) Apples business model (circumventing Apples 30% cut). We've seen it happen already in print media (news, books etc.). That others will not follow, given the overall "leap to the cloud" is a naive thought.
What then? Well, personally i think we're headed for exciting times. In a world where service is key, and technology pushes apps toward becoming an "industry asset" the obvious route to take to get ahead is partnering - not only in the mobile space, but rather in the every day space that is life. "Only" by creating partnership networks (e.g. co-specialization*) will competitors be able to offer substantially superior value propositions to the end customer, in a non-replicable fashion --- and, the more complex the network, the harder it will be to replicate.
Episode 1 of the Mobile wars came down to hardware (e.g. Nokia, Ericsson, Motorola).
Episode 2 was the era of software (e.g. Apple, Google, MSFT).
Episode 3 will be the age of partnerships. (e.g. ? ? ?)
....and people say the trilogies suck :- )
* nice article by Teece touching on these things.
http://www.google.se/url?sa=t&rct=j...uOmqAQ&usg=AFQjCNEWf1J3-OmsdHlpNqhGsbdmMumdbg