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It's June 1941. Germany has "currently won" WWII. Winners of "wars" aren't declared when they've barely begun. What is "trivially true" is that Apple has a significant head start in sales of tablet computers.

So when will this 'war' be over? If you take the very long view and define win as 'monopoly' then the question becomes meaningless, which was my point.

The war is never ending, battles might be won. Every year, every new hardware generation brings a new battle. The incumbent if they get complacent risks losing out to the upstart.

I'm not so immature as to tie my identity to some company. I use the products that best fulfill my needs, regardless of what the brand logo might be. No company today gives a darn about anything other than your wallet. Any incentives they give towards supposedly loyalty is to retain your wallet, not because they want to invite you over for dinner.

If the war is never ending, then there can never be a winner, except temporarily, which is also exactly what I've argued. Who is the second paragraph directed at? You should probably read my early posts in the thread if you think I'm writing my posts out of allegiance to a company instead of describing the state of the market, like it or not.
 
Unfortunately, the concept of "multi-tasking" is not well understood by many consumers. Adding to the problem is that Apple intentionally obscures their version of "multi-tasking," largely because the version in iOS is both limited and simplistic.

Perhaps this will help. First, it's important to understand the difference between "running" apps and "in memory" apps. Running apps are those that are actively using CPU cycles. A true multi-tasking OS allows multiple applications to request CPU cycles and schedules the operation of the CPU to meet those demands. When an app is actually "running" it uses information stored "in memory." If the information is not available "in memory," the OS must load that information from "secondary storage." (Apple intentionally obscures the difference between "memory" and "secondary storage" primarily as a marketing choice.)

Think of "memory" as a big room with a bunch of chairs, say 50. When an app "runs" (i.e. uses CPU cycles) it needs some to access data in some of those "chairs." If it needs more chairs than are currently empty, the OS asks some of the chairs to be vacated. When that happens, the information used by non-running apps vacates the chairs and move to other chairs outside the "memory room" in "secondary storage."

Of course, if there are empty "chairs," the OS simply allows a running app to "fill them up" with its own data. In that case the OS doesn't need to "vacate" any additional chairs.

What this all means is that as long as apps "behave themselves" and vacate memory when told to do so, there is no need to "kill" an app simply because it is "in memory." As long as it's not "running," (using CPU cycles) it is not affecting performance.

A sophisticated multi-tasking OS (such as Android) will take into account how many "chairs" an app needs (when it runs) and how often the app actually "runs." It will shuffle the "memory chairs" in such a way that overall performance is maximized.

Apple's iOS is much less sophisticated (for good reason discussed below.) Rather than allow any app to request CPU cycles whenever it likes, iOS has a few "privileged" apps (e.g. Pandora) that are allowed to make such requests while other apps are running. Thus, you can listen to music while surfing the web, but you cannot, say, play Angry Birds while updating a spreadsheet. (Not that you would want to.)

All of this means that when you request an app in iOS, the OS makes decisions about which apps can continue to make CPU cycle requests and which must be "suspended" (i.e. the information about their current state is stored and the app is prevented from making further requests for cpu cycles until it is activated again.)

The basic difference between "true multi-tasking" (e.g. Android) and "pseudo multi-tasking (e.g. iOS) is that a true mult-tasking OS makes no distinction among the privileges of apps. Thus, in Android you can update your email, update a news feed, and listen for text messages (in the background) while you listen to music and work on a spreadsheet. Android doesn't care what combination of apps you ask to run simultaneously. It simply responds to those requests by scheduling CPU cycles and moving data in and out of memory.

In iOS, on the other hand, there a significant restrictions on which apps can run "simultaneously." This is an inherent limitation on the flexibility of the device. On the other hand, it has major advantages.

What it means is that, unlike Android, iOS is much less subject to "lags" as demand on CPU cycles increases. It also means that it is less vulnerable to
"badly behaved" apps that insist on making demands for CPU cycles and don't vacate memory when told to do so.

In effect, Apple decided which user tasks might be used simultaneously with other apps and granted those apps (e.g. Pandora) a privileged status. All other apps must either be running or are forced to suspend themselves when a user stops using them.

All in all, an Android device will provide a user with greater flexibility but the price is a faster CPU and more memory (i.e. more chairs in the memory room) compared to a comparable iOS device. Apple places such a high priority on consistency in response to user requests (i.e. "smoothness") that it is unwilling to allow the sort of free-for-all Android allows. Furthermore, the operating system, itself, is simpler to design and operates more quickly (for a given CPU speed.) In short, iOS need not be as "smart" as a true multi-tasking OS like Android. But it may well offer less long-term flexibility as new apps emerge.

The bottom line is that for a device like a phone, Android may be overkill. And even for a tablet the less flexible but more predictable operation of iOS may be preferable. At the same time, however, Apple has a more difficult time juggling demands from apps that want to run in the background unless they're "privileged" to do so. Android faces no such obstacles; it simply needs more "horsepower" to cope with demands of various apps.

There is no need for a "task killer" in either environment (as long as apps are "well behaved.") The Android OS is very good at allocating CPU cycles as needed (and allows a much larger set of apps to run simultaneously). But it is vulnerable to "slowing down" when that happens. iOS "solves" the problem by restricting the number of apps that are "privileged" to multi-task.
 
Q: Serious Question...Has Apple already won the tablet war?

A: Yes, some skirmishes have been heard around the bushes.. But war... that hasn't even started yet..
 
I have an iPad 2 and love it, but once the sub-$200 Android tablets start coming out, Apple is toast. They'll still likely make the largest profit amongst tablet makers, so it depend on what "war" we are speaking of.
 
Bingo. "Won" requires something to be over.

Once upon a time, Palm owned the PDA market. Then something better came along.

RIM owned the smartphone market at one point, it was inconceivable that they'd do anything but continue to dominate. Then something better came along.

Let's not kid ourselves here. RIM never owned the smartphone market. Nokia was always the smartphone leader in the world. RIM might have had a very high USA/Canada market share of smartphones but never was a world leader. Nokia was the world leader in smartphone (now Nokia is in huge trouble themselves).

Will agree Palm did once own the PDA market but they were poorly managed (kept being sold/resold/spun off etc).

So technology is so fleeing. One minute you can be on top of the world, the next, you will be fighting for your corporate lives.

The Motorola Razr was the "it" phone from mid 2004-end of 2006. How quickly that has changed. And I was one of those who paid $400 for one of the first Razr phones.
 
The war is not over, but apple is in the lead. One thing that helped android was the shortage of iPads, some people just decided not to wait and go with android, same with phones, the iphone 4 was so difficult to get at one time that I'm sure it helped android sell more phones. Now that apple has caught up with demand, we should start seeing the lead increase.
 
Great post. I think this says it all. I'll be very interested to see how Windows 8 shapes up. That has the potential to sway a lot of people if MS can pull it off.

defiantly.... simply because android tablets cost the same as the ipad... so if you had to choose most get an ipad... now if an android tablet came with the same specs as an ipad for 200 less then you would see something slightly different its kind of similiar to how to can get a windows with the same specs of a macbook pro for cheaper.....
 
defiantly.... simply because android tablets cost the same as the ipad... so if you had to choose most get an ipad... now if an android tablet came with the same specs as an ipad for 200 less then you would see something slightly different its kind of similiar to how to can get a windows with the same specs of a macbook pro for cheaper.....

I guess to people who are on a budget a $200 tablet would be very appealing, especially if you need to buy more than one.
 
Apple is doing the same thing here as they did to the MP3-player market:

  • Grab a large lead in market share
  • Then they use the volume buying to lock in both lower prices on commodities as well as buying all the market can make
  • This ensures competitors have a hard time getting the parts they need
  • Once competitors catch up, Apple drops the price. Competitors are again caught flat-footed.
  • Finally Apple has a product at every price point the consumer wants, maintains market share, and people talk about an iPad (or iPod) market because that is the default.

It won't be like the phone market which involves necessary devices, sold at giveaway prices, locked into contracts.
 
I have an iPad 2 and love it, but once the sub-$200 Android tablets start coming out, Apple is toast. They'll still likely make the largest profit amongst tablet makers, so it depend on what "war" we are speaking of.

There's already sub $200 Android tablets and their POS. You think Samsung, Motorola, whoever else can make a good tablet for under $200 and make a profit? Good luck with that.

Tmobile is going to be selling the G slate for $399 with a two year contract with a $39.99 a month plan How is that a good deal? Tablets on contract won't work, at least with the iPad you don't have to be on contract.
 
Apple is doing the same thing here as they did to the MP3-player market:

  • Grab a large lead in market share
  • Then they use the volume buying to lock in both lower prices on commodities as well as buying all the market can make
  • This ensures competitors have a hard time getting the parts they need
  • Once competitors catch up, Apple drops the price. Competitors are again caught flat-footed.
  • Finally Apple has a product at every price point the consumer wants, maintains market share, and people talk about an iPad (or iPod) market because that is the default.

It won't be like the phone market which involves necessary devices, sold at giveaway prices, locked into contracts.

Absolutely. It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings, but she's backstage warming up her vocal cords.
 
Apple is doing the same thing here as they did to the MP3-player market:

  • Grab a large lead in market share
  • Then they use the volume buying to lock in both lower prices on commodities as well as buying all the market can make
  • This ensures competitors have a hard time getting the parts they need
  • Once competitors catch up, Apple drops the price. Competitors are again caught flat-footed.
  • Finally Apple has a product at every price point the consumer wants, maintains market share, and people talk about an iPad (or iPod) market because that is the default.

It won't be like the phone market which involves necessary devices, sold at giveaway prices, locked into contracts.

good analyses never noticed that...
 
Apple is doing the same thing here as they did to the MP3-player market:.

That is all true, and all the factors you listed contributed to Apple's domination of MP3 players, but IMHO you overlooked the most important.

Apple created an platform ecosystem around the iPod. Starting with the iTunes Store, but also the rich accessory and (ultimately) App Stores. These were things that Apple's competitors failed to even try and match until it was too late.

Apple is doing the same thing with the iPad. Sure - it has a great App Store. But the iPad can also beam video and music content to the Apple TV. It can do realtime video chat with iPhones and Macs. And I think the music-storage and synching capabilities of iCloud are (literally) only the beginning of what will be possible.

Apple knows that playing a "specifications" game is unlikely to be a long-term winning strategy. So while Samsung and RIM are chasing processors speeds and Flash players - Apple is quietly building the Platform Ecosystem they'll never be able to approach.
 
Good points, vrDrew. The spec game is what the iPod competitors constantly tried to play, and could never figure out why people weren't flocking to their "superior" devices. The problem with the spec game is that this is a geek obsession. Most people are not geeks and couldn't care less about specs. So you had this stark contrast in advertising:

MP3-player competitor: Specs, specs, specs!

Apple: Silhouette dancer grooving to music.

You are an average consumer, which one speaks to you? No wonder Apple wiped the floor with those confused computer makers who thought specs sold devices.

The same mistakes are happening in the tablet market. Android tablet fans come here and bray about better specs as if that mattered in the least. They still haven't figured out what people want is an experience. Apple gets it and that's one of the reasons they might soon be the largest market capitalized company on Earth.
 
Apple is doing the same thing with the iPad. Sure - it has a great App Store. But the iPad can also beam video and music content to the Apple TV. It can do realtime video chat with iPhones and Macs. And I think the music-storage and synching capabilities of iCloud are (literally) only the beginning of what will be possible.

Apple knows that playing a "specifications" game is unlikely to be a long-term winning strategy. So while Samsung and RIM are chasing processors speeds and Flash players - Apple is quietly building the Platform Ecosystem they'll never be able to approach.

This and price (for similar quality) are the key. The only real competitor I see is Amazon:
1) They have the branded ecosystem;
2) They can cut the price.

Amazon is quite willing to live with a 5% margin on the hardware sales due to their ecosystem's add-on sales. Samsung, RIM, etc.. do not have the business model to support single-digit margins on hardware; Amazon does. Their business model is built on retailer margins.

jdg
 
not just the tablet war they have won the pc war

Steve Jobs said something to the effect of "the post-PC era has arrived" because he wants you to use cloud computing so they control your data. Eventually you WILL give up your laptop and get an ereader (read 14th generation souped up ipad that does everything they want you to be able to do [for a recurring fee of course]) So they are going to ram cloud computing down our throats until we quit gagging and forget that we once in the past had control over our data. A true tablet would take us down the wrong road to that end and is therefore at odds with the concept of the cloud. Mac is the category killer in the tablet market and that will allow them to take over the laptop market by default (natrual replacment)
 
Steve Jobs said something to the effect of "the post-PC era has arrived" because he wants you to use cloud computing so they control your data.

Yes, because things were so much better in the good old days.

Like when "controlling your data" meant you kept your music on a dusty stack of cassette tapes. And if one of them got cooked in the sun; "borrowed" by a friend; or simply mangled by a froward tape deck - well, you were just SOL.
 
Yes, because things were so much better in the good old days.

Like when "controlling your data" meant you kept your music on a dusty stack of cassette tapes. And if one of them got cooked in the sun; "borrowed" by a friend; or simply mangled by a froward tape deck - well, you were just SOL.

Actually they were, when you buy music/movies from itunes, it has no intrinsic value, you can't resell it to someone else if you don't like it, at least that dusty old CD/DVD/Bluray (retail disc) can be loaned, traded or resold. I like having control of my media.
 
Actually they were, when you buy music/movies from itunes, it has no intrinsic value, you can't resell it to someone else if you don't like it, at least that dusty old CD/DVD/Bluray (retail disc) can be loaned, traded or resold. I like having control of my media.

The used marketplace for physical media is nearly dead. CDs and DVDs are not worth the cost of shipping. Bringing it in to a local reseller like Half Price Books and they'll offer 25 to 75 cents. A really hot title they might pay $1.25 for. Ebay is filled with failed auctions from people wanting just a few bucks.

You can earn more money in 1 hour at McDonald's than you can with five hours of holding a garage sale or setting up online sales to sell your media.

As the cost of fuel, shipping, and postage all go up, it gets even harder. $3 in gas to drive to the local Half Price Books doesn't seem like much until they offer you a measly $5 for a giant box of media. And it's been a long, long, time since used shops have been willing to negotiate on their offers.
 
If someone walks into a crowded bar, instigates a brawl among all the patrons inside over the last bottle of gin, but then walks out with the gin without ever participating in the fight while everyone else occupied beating the crap out of each other, is that actually called "winning", or is it something else?

At this point, I think that's exactly what Apple has done. At some point they may get dragged into the fight, but right now, Apple is the one who instigated the fight among all the others because of their success. As of right now, they're sitting at a safe distance on a terrace looking down at everyone else fighting while enjoying a nice glass of gin. :)
 
To me yes they have but also here where the next big thing that the cell phone companys are going to get into your pocket for .It the socalled Data Plan for your tablet no matter who make's it or what cell phone company you get through they are going to bend you over and stick it long and deep without any lube in that area ...

The main reason i got rid of the Iphone and went to a Android power cell phone was a cheaper data plan from Cricket ..My data plan alone was around $140.oo dollar a month without any ding's from the phone's company for going over the socalled limit of data plan i had .

I'm getting tired of beening nickeled & dimed to death over a simple phone plan and all i was really doing was makeing phone calls and Video chat & geting directions for use as need ..So i went to a phone that had Wifi hotspot bult in and it was in the price of the data plan at $65.oo dollars a month compared to the $140.oo plus a month sometime's ..

The ipad now does Facetime with video chat with the front camera unit for family & friends video chat

I do not know about you Guy & gal's on this forum but i can use the extra $75.dollar's a month that i'm saving and it going back into my pocket for use on something else ..
 
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What it means is that, unlike Android, iOS is much less subject to "lags" as demand on CPU cycles increases.

However we have two sets of lags here. One is that Android suffers when there are many apps running - also let's not forget Android is very aggressive at killing tasks in the background and suspending it, which negates the multitasking argument in practice - and the other lag is simply, Android's touch tracking and image handling isn't as good as iOS'.

Contrary to your claim, on my Android phone, even if I turn off all the background services, turn off all programs running, turn off all widgets, and make the phone go into the airplane mode, it still cannot match iOS in terms of smoothness and touch response. Instead of using "Android is laggy because it's more sophisticated," we can simply conclude Android just isn't as sophisticated at handling graphical UI with touch.
 
The tablet war has barely even begun with Windows 8 still a ways away. Is it winning? For sure.

In the meanwhile, I just enjoy my iPad 2.
 
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