Serious Question...Has Apple already won the tablet war?

[BergerFan]

I'm old enough to recall when the Apple II "won" the PC "war." Then the IBM PC came along. Victories in technology are frequently short lived.

Those were mere battles.
Wintel won the PC war when Windows 3 arrived and when 95 became ubiquitous, which coincided with Jobs not being at Apple.
The difference today, is that the average consumer Mindshare Wars have also been won already, which is more than half the battle.
Just look at the iPhone - over a year old, and despite rivals trouncing it in specs and features during that year, it's still selling like hot cakes and the clamour for the next one will send it into the stratosphere.

 

[thelookingglass]

Those were mere battles.
Wintel won the PC war when Windows 3 arrived and when 95 became ubiquitous, which coincided with Jobs not being at Apple.
The difference today, is that the average consumer Mindshare Wars have also been won already, which is more than half the battle.
Just look at the iPhone - over a year old, and despite rivals trouncing it in specs and features during that year, it's still selling like hot cakes and the clamour for the next one will send it into the stratosphere.

Yeah, and iCloud has the potential to significantly entrench users in the iOS ecosystem. Too much effort to switch to another ecosystem when all or most of your apps, media and data are contained within iOS. That's the primary reason I don't even really think about switching to Android or webOS. I'm curious about the others, as a tech junkie, but I wouldn't ever seriously consider switching.

 

[spiderman0616]

I think the iPad is akin to iPods. Nobody knew they wanted an MP3 player until iPods came out. Nobody knew they wanted a tablet until iPads came out. Competitors are STILL coming out with competition to the iPod, but can you name more than a handful of standouts, and can you name any that have sold a lot of units?

I think in the smartphone world, people are buying what's a) free, b) available on their carrier, and c) the closest they can get to an iPhone. This is not true for everyone, of course. There are plenty of people out there who don't want iPhones, but there are also plenty of people out there who bought Android phones and still want iPhones--they just couldn't get them and weren't willing to switch carriers to do it.

iPads, much like iPods, are not in the same situation. You are not tied to a carrier or contract. You are not being sold on something by an 18 year old at the cell phone store who has his/her own agenda for making commissions. You are (hopefully) simply doing your research, shopping for your tablet, and buying the one you want. In that situation, the one most people want is the iPad. If these Android tablets were in any way desirable, they'd be selling better. But it just goes to show that despite Android being more widespread on cell phones, it is not necessarily the OS of choice, but rather the one being more or less forced on people.

In light of recent product rumors, releases, sales numbers, and product announcements, I truly have a feeling that we are about to see Apple execute at a level we have not yet seen. I feel like they are getting ready for a huge push in several of their markets. Because of this, I'm glad I have spent the last year slowly migrating my technology over to Apple stuff. My house is getting more and more Apple-y by the day. And whenever I see a new Android tablet review or product release, I am even happier that I picked the iPad.

 

[Cander]

The big problem with tablets are they are still a hard sale. It is not a big surprise to me that Android phones will continue to increase share because when people walk into a carrier store, they are there looking for a phone. And when you have 10 Android phones and 0 or 1 iPhone on display, the average person is only going to think two things, does it look cool and it is it the cheapest one.

But tablets are different. Normal people do not necessarily just walk into Best Buy with buying a tablet on their mind because unlike a phone, it doesnt meet a majority of peoples immediate needs.

I have hard time seeing anyone else gaining momentum in the tablet market over Apple this time for those reasons.

 

[BergerFan]

I think the iPad is akin to iPods. Nobody knew they wanted an MP3 player until iPods came out. Nobody knew they wanted a tablet until iPads came out. Competitors are STILL coming out with competition to the iPod, but can you name more than a handful of standouts, and can you name any that have sold a lot of units?

I think in the smartphone world, people are buying what's a) free, b) available on their carrier, and c) the closest they can get to an iPhone. This is not true for everyone, of course. There are plenty of people out there who don't want iPhones, but there are also plenty of people out there who bought Android phones and still want iPhones--they just couldn't get them and weren't willing to switch carriers to do it.

iPads, much like iPods, are not in the same situation. You are not tied to a carrier or contract. You are not being sold on something by an 18 year old at the cell phone store who has his/her own agenda for making commissions. You are (hopefully) simply doing your research, shopping for your tablet, and buying the one you want. In that situation, the one most people want is the iPad. If these Android tablets were in any way desirable, they'd be selling better. But it just goes to show that despite Android being more widespread on cell phones, it is not necessarily the OS of choice, but rather the one being more or less forced on people.

In light of recent product rumors, releases, sales numbers, and product announcements, I truly have a feeling that we are about to see Apple execute at a level we have not yet seen. I feel like they are getting ready for a huge push in several of their markets. Because of this, I'm glad I have spent the last year slowly migrating my technology over to Apple stuff. My house is getting more and more Apple-y by the day. And whenever I see a new Android tablet review or product release, I am even happier that I picked the iPad.

I could not have worded that any better(and I've tried many times. )
There're so many people who think that the Android tablets will have the lion's share of the market, just like in smartphones, but don't realise that they're different business models, as you describe.

 

[kevinof]

Er no.

see http://www.bgr.com/2011/07/21/andro...arket-windows-tablets-outsold-playbook-in-q2/

Apples tablet share down from 94% to 61.3% and Android up from 2.9% to 30% in the second quarter 2011. Now I always assume that research numbers like these are suspect but even if they are out by 50% then what you've got is the smartphone market experience now making its way into the tablet market. Android will continue to gain market (for lots of reasons) and the ipad will reduce in market share.

So no Apple hasn't won (hate calling it a "war"!) but was first there with a very good product and now the others are catching up. Where we will end up I don't know.

Have they won it? Why or why not?

 

[Dmunjal]

They've won the consumer war but the war for business tablets has just begun.

 

[spiderman0616]

Er no.

see http://www.bgr.com/2011/07/21/andro...arket-windows-tablets-outsold-playbook-in-q2/

Apples tablet share down from 94% to 61.3% and Android up from 2.9% to 30% in the second quarter 2011. Now I always assume that research numbers like these are suspect but even if they are out by 50% then what you've got is the smartphone market experience now making its way into the tablet market. Android will continue to gain market (for lots of reasons) and the ipad will reduce in market share.

So no Apple hasn't won (hate calling it a "war"!) but was first there with a very good product and now the others are catching up. Where we will end up I don't know.

That's comparing Q2 numbers only. I think in the long run this will turn out to be like the iPod. I will also mention that this is numbers shipped, not numbers sold.

 

[kdoug]

Er no.

see http://www.bgr.com/2011/07/21/andro...arket-windows-tablets-outsold-playbook-in-q2/

Apples tablet share down from 94% to 61.3% and Android up from 2.9% to 30% in the second quarter 2011. Now I always assume that research numbers like these are suspect but even if they are out by 50% then what you've got is the smartphone market experience now making its way into the tablet market. Android will continue to gain market (for lots of reasons) and the ipad will reduce in market share.

So no Apple hasn't won (hate calling it a "war"!) but was first there with a very good product and now the others are catching up. Where we will end up I don't know.

The growth in Android tablets has primarily been in the cheap under $200 tablets that I see popping up daily on dealnews.com.
The big boys who are going after Apple's share are struggling mightily. This might explain why Staples is offering $100 coupon on any tablet through the end of the month.
I won't call it a war but I liken it to an @ss kicking contest against a one legged man.

 

[trsblader]

They are winning so far, but as long as others are trying, the war isn't won or over yet. I've read things about a couple "supposed" quad core tablets coming out before next summer that should be good competition.

Until the others give in and stop trying, it's not over.

 

[kdoug]

They are winning so far, but as long as others are trying, the war isn't won or over yet. I've read things about a couple "supposed" quad core tablets coming out before next summer that should be good competition.

Until the others give in and stop trying, it's not over.

You're missing the point. How is quad core going to help when your ecosystem is running along like a Ford Pinto? If everybody purchased a computer based on hardware, Apple would have been buried years ago.
I really don't think anybody, including myself have a problem with the hardware on these tablets, they just aren't fun to use nor do they make you feel creative.
This is EXACTLY why people buy and KEEP their iPads.

 

[gnasher729]

Have they won it? Why or why not?

Microsoft was said to have won the operating system war, and the browser war. In Europe, Nokia definitely won the smartphone war. And look at them now. If you take a long enough time frame then the war hasn't even begun.

Apple may have some advantages right now, but nothing that hiring a Ballmer or Elop as CEO couldn't destroy in very few years.

 

[henchman]

Why do Apple users need continual validation.

 

[chown33]

there is a tablet war?

Definitely.

If I don't keep my Xanax separate from my Librium, they'll battle it out inside my medicine cabinet. The noise keeps me awake at night, and cleaning up the aftermath is ugly.

 

[kdoug]

Microsoft was said to have won the operating system war, and the browser war. In Europe, Nokia definitely won the smartphone war. And look at them now. If you take a long enough time frame then the war hasn't even begun.

Apple may have some advantages right now, but nothing that hiring a Ballmer or Elop as CEO couldn't destroy in very few years.

You forgot to mention Gil Amelio. He's the reason we have Jobs!

 

[Carouser]

So Apple hasn't won the tablet war because they might lose it in the future? This makes the original question meaningless, since there's zero frame of reference.

Also, for those of you who've answered 'no', I wonder what state of affairs would make you answer 'yes'.

 

[trsblader]

You're missing the point. How is quad core going to help when your ecosystem is running along like a Ford Pinto? If everybody purchased a computer based on hardware, Apple would have been buried years ago.

Not everyone is smart. You mention big number, and people assume it's great. All they have to do is say something like "Our new and improved OS along with quad core processor make it the fastest tablet on the market. xx times faster than iPad 2" and people buy it without thinking twice or even really playing with it before buying.

And TONS of people buy things based on hardware who have no clue otherwise. Smart? No. Does it happen? All the time. Heck half the people with 27" iMacs for example bought it for the big numbers. How many of those people are truly taking advantage of the high end model and how many are just using it for email (just look at all the "21 or 27 imac" threads). Same thing applies to tablets, and is exactly why inferior tablets continue to sell.

 

[DeathChill]

Er no.

see http://www.bgr.com/2011/07/21/andro...arket-windows-tablets-outsold-playbook-in-q2/

Apples tablet share down from 94% to 61.3% and Android up from 2.9% to 30% in the second quarter 2011. Now I always assume that research numbers like these are suspect but even if they are out by 50% then what you've got is the smartphone market experience now making its way into the tablet market. Android will continue to gain market (for lots of reasons) and the ipad will reduce in market share.

So no Apple hasn't won (hate calling it a "war"!) but was first there with a very good product and now the others are catching up. Where we will end up I don't know.

I'd take that report with a grain of salt. There are a hell of a lot more reports showing that Android tablets aren't selling. In fact, many Android manufacturers are apparently doubling down on smartphones because their tablets are not selling. I'm too lazy to dig up the link.

 

[kdoug]

Not everyone is smart. You mention big number, and people assume it's great. All they have to do is say something like "Our new and improved OS along with quad core processor make it the fastest tablet on the market. xx times faster than iPad 2" and people buy it without thinking twice or even really playing with it before buying.

And TONS of people buy things based on hardware who have no clue otherwise. Smart? No. Does it happen? All the time. Heck half the people with 27" iMacs for example bought it for the big numbers. How many of those people are truly taking advantage of the high end model and how many are just using it for email (just look at all the "21 or 27 imac" threads). Same thing applies to tablets, and is exactly why inferior tablets continue to sell.

I guess this is where perception and reality come into play.
Kind of like now..........

 

[Carouser]

Not everyone is smart. You mention big number, and people assume it's great. All they have to do is say something like "Our new and improved OS along with quad core processor make it the fastest tablet on the market. xx times faster than iPad 2" and people buy it without thinking twice or even really playing with it before buying.

Yet if we consult reality, we find that this doesn't explain what's happening in the market at all, since the people making their decisions on 'numbers' are statistically insignificant. If quad core tablets are going to be good competition, it won't be because people say 'wow, quad core'.

 

[trsblader]

I guess this is where perception and reality come into play.
Kind of like now..........

Yes, and reality is, the war is still going, and will continue for quite some time. Maybe they won the battle, but last time I checked, a war wasn't won until all sides called truce, or one side gave up and surrendered

 

[Carouser]

Yes, and reality is, the war is still going, and will continue for quite some time. Maybe they won the battle, but last time I checked, a war wasn't won until all sides called truce, or one side gave up and surrendered

By those criteria, winning a war in a marketplace strikes me as impossible, so the question and discussion about whether or not Apple has achieved impossible (or at least unrealistic) goals is silly.

 

[NebulaClash]

Here are the facts as I see them:

FACT 1: Apple owns the tablet market AT THIS TIME. You might as well call it the iPad market since almost every tablet sold is an iPad.

FACT 2: The tech industry is full of examples of market leaders losing their position. So that Apple rules the tablet market right now is immaterial to what the market might look like ten years from now.

FACT 3: Apple owned the MP3 market in 2003, and still does today. So sometimes a market leader can remain the market leader for a long time. Think Windows in the business market.

FACT 4: Yes, the battle for the business use of tablets is just starting, but hey, the consumer side is just starting too so what are you trying to prove? Apple is winning the business side too so far.

FACT 5: Some people hate Apple and will never, ever, ever give them credit for anything. So for them, there will always be a hope for some other tablet to come along and crush Apple. Such people can be safely ignored since facts do not enter the equation with them.

BOTTOM LINE: Apple has won the tablet war in year one and year two and looks to have a safe lead for years three and four. Beyond that, who knows? But as with the iPod market, Apple is not going to rest on its laurels. They are going to be hard to beat for a long time.

 

[chown33]

Er no.

see http://www.bgr.com/2011/07/21/andro...arket-windows-tablets-outsold-playbook-in-q2/

Apples tablet share down from 94% to 61.3% and Android up from 2.9% to 30% in the second quarter 2011.

Something doesn't add up.

The company providing that market report is Strategy Analytics. Here's their report on Q4 2010:
http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=pressreleaseviewer&a0=5005

Boston, MA - January 31, 2011 – According to the latest research from Strategy Analytics, global tablet shipments reached 10 million units in the fourth quarter of 2010. Apple maintained first position, while Android soared and captured a record 22 percent global share.
​

So in Q4 2010, Android had 22% global share, according to Strategy Analytics.

And according to a table on that page, the big quarter-to-quarter percentage change came between Q3 and Q4 2010.


Here's a link quoting their Q2 2011 report:
http://eon.businesswire.com/news/eon/20110721005326/en/apple/ipad/ios

BOSTON--(EON: Enhanced Online News)--According to the latest research from Strategy Analytics, global tablet shipments reached 15 million units in the second quarter of 2011. Apple maintained first position with 61 percent share, drifting from 94 percent a year earlier.
​

Oh, so it looks like the "94%" is referring to previous-year numbers, not previous-quarter numbers. Which makes sense, since there were effectively no Android tablets at all in Q2 2010.

Oh, and for that report, "Shipments refer to sell-in." That's delivery to retailers, not sell-through, which would be to consumers.

 

[vrDrew]

I'd shut it down and give the money back to the shareholders

Michael Dell, talking about Apple in 1997.

Fun fact: Apple sold $6 billion worth of iPads in the quarter just ended. More than TWICE Dell's consumer PC business.

Its probably too early to say the tablet war is over. But Apple is off to a pretty good start.