Serious Question...Has Apple already won the tablet war?

[fertilized-egg]

The tablet war has barely even begun with Windows 8 still a ways away.

I don't think Windows 8 does much for the tablet war as much as it brings the old tablet PCs more up-to-date, which is still an interesting proposition as I am an owner of HP tablet PC.

However being stuck with the keyboard and Intel CPUs, I just don't see how Windows 8 tablets compete against the paper thin profiles, low heat and long battery life of ARM-based tablets. I know Windows 8 will support ARM but as far as I know that means no legacy software support and Windows without legacy software support is not something I want to use, especially on a tablet.

 

[erawsd]

I don't think Windows 8 does much for the tablet war as much as it brings the old tablet PCs more up-to-date, which is still an interesting proposition as I am an owner of HP tablet PC.

However being stuck with the keyboard and Intel CPUs, I just don't see how Windows 8 tablets compete against the paper thin profiles, low heat and long battery life of ARM-based tablets. I know Windows 8 will support ARM but as far as I know that means no legacy software support and Windows without legacy software support is not something I want to use, especially on a tablet.

To be fair the windows 8 tablets are likely to be nothing like their predecessors. One for thing, this is being built ground up with a touch interface and as a consumer device (old tablets were stylus based and targetted at business users). I don't think legacy support will be a big deal, since I don' t really want to use legacy software with a touch screen anyway. Although, I do expect that this will force intel to rethink their business model so that we end up with a much stronger lineup of mobile chips from the company.

What I find most exciting about Win8 is that it isn't trying to be an iPad. While everyone else is trying to take a phone OS and make it fit a tablet screen, MS is doing the opposite and bringing some fresh ideas to the table.

 

[ZGXtreme]

They've won the consumer war but the war for business tablets has just begun.

Going into the confrontation with Windows 8 the iPad certainly has the lead and edge. I believe iOS will edge it out but personally I think it will be hard to predict given the depth of exposure to Microsoft. Apple created this "war" so I could easily see them beating it out seeing as how they also made the rules. Now... this is consumers.

On the business and more so government front, this will only start with the arrival of Windows 8. If it didn't come with Android, I'd place the new Toughbook Tablet in the lead in this area. As a police officer, all of our in car computing software is Windows based. Windows 8 on the Toughbook Tablet would have really made it a player for those in the field. Would I prefer an iPad in my patrol car? Absolutely. Unfortunantly I realise that the iPad just isn't aimed at that usage. If Panasonic tweaks the device for Windows 8 I see the iPad losing this area. But mentioned above, it's not really targeted to this area which is really a niche market.

 

[vrDrew]

What I find most exciting about Win8 is that it isn't trying to be an iPad. While everyone else is trying to take a phone OS and make it fit a tablet screen, MS is doing the opposite and bringing some fresh ideas to the table.

The "fresh idea" being trying to shoehorn a PC operating system into a handheld mobile device. Microsoft can try and dress it up any way they want, but its never going to work.

What has happened with the iPad is an example of a paradigm shift. In the last fourteen months the rules have changed, and the characteristics that used to make a product competitive (ie. USB ports, legacy software support, RAM, etc.) no longer work.

To take one example: Apple itself has been somewhat surprised by how rapidly business has taken an interest in adopting the iPad. And one reason this has happened is precisely because the iPad has no USB port. Businesses IT managers are concerned about security and corporate espionage - and when the biggest leak of classified information in US history is enabled by a kid with a thumb drive - all of a sudden the iPad's biggest "weaknesses" are starting to look a lot like competitive advantages.

 

[kevinof]

So what's to stop somebody opening gmail from their ipad inside their corporate network and attaching a zip file and sending everything that way? I don't buy the usb argument and in fact I see the lack of a USB are being a problem for many businesses in sharing info between coworkers or connecting other stuff.

Ever been in a sales presentation where at the last minute you have to move stuff from one machine to another - and you can't get on your customers wifi because you haven't been "approved". yes I know you have 3g (if you have 3g on your ipad AND you have a 3g signal).

Where MS might win is in the availability of desktop applications running on a tablet - I know we're in a "browser" world but there are still tens of thousands of companies running windows client s/w out there that will take a long time to move to the browser.

The "fresh idea" being trying to shoehorn a PC operating system into a handheld mobile device. Microsoft can try and dress it up any way they want, but its never going to work.

What has happened with the iPad is an example of a paradigm shift. In the last fourteen months the rules have changed, and the characteristics that used to make a product competitive (ie. USB ports, legacy software support, RAM, etc.) no longer work.

To take one example: Apple itself has been somewhat surprised by how rapidly business has taken an interest in adopting the iPad. And one reason this has happened is precisely because the iPad has no USB port. Businesses IT managers are concerned about security and corporate espionage - and when the biggest leak of classified information in US history is enabled by a kid with a thumb drive - all of a sudden the iPad's biggest "weaknesses" are starting to look a lot like competitive advantages.

 

[fertilized-egg]

Ever been in a sales presentation where at the last minute you have to move stuff from one machine to another - and you can't get on your customers wifi because you haven't been "approved".

Agreed that iOS needs a quicker and easier device-to-device file transfer outside the realms of iCloud. For that reason I'd love to see Air Drop implemented on the iOS devices. That should be awesome.

Where MS might win is in the availability of desktop applications running on a tablet

Yes but I think that's also the downfall of Windows. If you want to use desktop applications, you haveto use a Intel processor along with a keyboard and a trackpad. Once you use a Intel processor of reasonable performance (i.e. not Atom) and add a keyboard, you get a relatively expensive, heavy machine with poor battery life. While I'm excited that my tablet PC will finally get a usable touch interface, I just don't see how I can use this heavy machinery in place of my iPad.

 

[jsh1120]

...
Yes but I think that's also the downfall of Windows. If you want to use desktop applications, you haveto use a Intel processor along with a keyboard and a trackpad. Once you use a Intel processor of reasonable performance (i.e. not Atom) and add a keyboard, you get a relatively expensive, heavy machine with poor battery life. While I'm excited that my tablet PC will finally get a usable touch interface, I just don't see how I can use this heavy machinery in place of my iPad.

You're pointing to the most critical current problem among manufacturers, I think. The "sweet spot" that balances functionality, portability, and freedom from AC power is still elusive. After many years of shrinking, smart phones are adding bulk like my relatives at a picnic. "Right sizing" a tablet remains an issue. Ultra-portable PC's are great but they promise more in terms of serious computing than they can currently deliver.

Technology advances will help and already have. (e.g. second generation integrated graphics; better batteries) But ultimately there are some physical constraints for a user device that are very difficult to overcome.

 

[erawsd]

The "fresh idea" being trying to shoehorn a PC operating system into a handheld mobile device. Microsoft can try and dress it up any way they want, but its never going to work.

What has happened with the iPad is an example of a paradigm shift. In the last fourteen months the rules have changed, and the characteristics that used to make a product competitive (ie. USB ports, legacy software support, RAM, etc.) no longer work.

To take one example: Apple itself has been somewhat surprised by how rapidly business has taken an interest in adopting the iPad. And one reason this has happened is precisely because the iPad has no USB port. Businesses IT managers are concerned about security and corporate espionage - and when the biggest leak of classified information in US history is enabled by a kid with a thumb drive - all of a sudden the iPad's biggest "weaknesses" are starting to look a lot like competitive advantages.

Apple has only sold ~ 30million iPads vs hundreds of millions of traditional USB havin, legacy software supportin' PCs in the same period. We still far away from any serious shift.

Apple shoehorned a phone OS into a tablet, so I don't see how MS strategy is any worst... especially when people are more apt to use tablets in the same way that they would a traditional desktop. Now, I'm not nostadamus; I'm not going to predict whether or not it will work, all I will say is that I'm very interested in the ideas we've seen so far.

 

[erawsd]

Yes but I think that's also the downfall of Windows. If you want to use desktop applications, you haveto use a Intel processor along with a keyboard and a trackpad. Once you use a Intel processor of reasonable performance (i.e. not Atom) and add a keyboard, you get a relatively expensive, heavy machine with poor battery life. While I'm excited that my tablet PC will finally get a usable touch interface, I just don't see how I can use this heavy machinery in place of my iPad.

If you want to use the desktop apps you won't have to have a KB, mouse, or intel processor. Presumably you'd only plug in the KB/Mouse when you want to get some serious work done -- this is how a lot of folks currently use their iPad.

According to intel, you'll need an intel processor to run legacy software. MS says that is actually not true, which means they are probably working on some way to emulate x86.

 

[gnasher729]

You forgot to mention Gil Amelio. He's the reason we have Jobs!

Gil Amelio actually did a very good job. When he started, Apple was in deep ****. When he left, Apple wasn't losing money, the white elephant named "Copland" was cancelled, MacOS development wasn't paralysed anymore, NeXT with MacOS X was purchased, and Steve Jobs was back. Compare that to Elop: When he started at Nokia, they were in trouble. Shortly later, they are in deep deep trouble, sales dropped by a third, and the company made huge losses.

 

[MacPhilosopher]

A lot of good posts on this thread. I think Apple is winning the war for now in this arena, but I think the next half of the war will be less about hardware and OS and more about the cloud. This is where Goggle can make major advances on Apple in the hardware and OS front. Though, Apple seems to see this paradigm shift approaching and has taken major steps to become the leader. We shall see....

 

[TheWheelMan]

Apple shoehorned a phone OS into a tablet

I believe the iPhone idea was born from their work on a tablet. So, since the tablet came first, they actually shoehorned a tablet OS into a phone.

 

[erawsd]

I believe the iPhone idea was born from their work on a tablet. So, since the tablet came first, they actually shoehorned a tablet OS into a phone.

Not necessarily. The idea of the iPhone came from early touch screen tech demos that they had put together for a tablet. iOS itself was built ground up for the iPhone. In fact, Apple temporarily shelved the idea of a tablet, and didn't return until after the iPhone had proven to be a huge success.

 

[fizzwinkus]

Apple must not have been thinking about it at all while building the phone. Nope, not one bit.

 

[erawsd]

Apple must not have been thinking about it at all while building the phone. Nope, not one bit.

Looking back at iPhone OS 1.0.. I doubt it. If this was a tablet OS all along why did Apple take an extra 5-6 months to refine 4.0 for the iPad?

BTW, I'm not saying that this was a bad route for Apple to take, all I'm saying is that I'm interested to see how a product with the reverse philosophy turns out.

 

[MrWillie]

Yes but I think that's also the downfall of Windows. If you want to use desktop applications, you haveto use a Intel processor along with a keyboard and a trackpad. Once you use a Intel processor of reasonable performance (i.e. not Atom) and add a keyboard, you get a relatively expensive, heavy machine with poor battery life. While I'm excited that my tablet PC will finally get a usable touch interface, I just don't see how I can use this heavy machinery in place of my iPad.

Apple used Rosetta to run PPC applications on Intel Macs. I don't see why MS can't run Intel code on ARM with Windows 8.

I would gladly pay $1,000 + for a tablet that had a keyboard dock that allowed me to ditch the laptop. There is the Acer 121, but after playing with one, its not yet ready for prime time. Win8 and Apples answer (Sep's iPad release running Lion?), might be the ticket. Developers will release touch designed software once these products become available. When Apple brings out a tablet running OS whatever that bootcamps/VMs Win8, my laptop goes bye-bye.

 

[Sydde]

Apple used Rosetta to run PPC applications on Intel Macs. I don't see why MS can't run Intel code on ARM with Windows 8.

Years ago, there was a very low power but fast processor called "Crusoe". It ran x86 code entirely under emulation and pretty well, at least for a while, IIRC. The real advantage to ARM, the reason you see these integrated Tegra and A5 designs, is that ARM has a very good coprocessor interface to the CPU. This could be an excellent means for emulating x86 code, and Intel is probably a little nervous about losing a huge share of the market. Effective emulation leads directly to transition. By the end of the decade, Intel (along with AMD) will probably be a marginal player.

 

[h4lp m3]

iOS itself was built ground up for the iPhone.

Apple also built the phone up FROM THE GROUND!!!


YOU MUST THINK I'M A JOKE!!!

 

[kdarling]

Not necessarily. The idea of the iPhone came from early touch screen tech demos that they had put together for a tablet.

Right, which most likely was running OSX at the time.

iOS itself was built ground up for the iPhone.

Not exactly from scratch, since it was a port of OSX, but yes it was done specifically for the iPhone. As Wired's history put it:

"Apple's hardware engineers had spent about a year working on touchscreen technology for a tablet PC and had convinced (Jobs) that they could build a similar interface for a phone."

...

"Engineers looked carefully at Linux, which had already been rewritten for use on mobile phones, but Jobs refused to use someone else's software.

"They built a prototype of a phone, embedded on an iPod, that used the clickwheel as a dialer, but it could only select and dial numbers — not surf the Net.

So, in early 2006, just as Apple engineers were finishing their yearlong effort to revise OS X to work with Intel chips, Apple began the process of rewriting OS X again for the iPhone."

 

[BostonBrawler]

They are the current market creator and leader, and I don't see how they get knocked off. Much like the iPod vs MP3 players. There are many many MP3 players, but iPod is clearly king. Sure, Sony will always manufacture a model, but it will never be an iPod.

Not to mention, they will always be a generation ahead. All of these new tablets coming out look like ipad1. And as soon as the next gen galaxy comes out, there will be a newer advanced iPad.

Lastly there is iPad, and then everyone else. For someone else to 'win' they would first have to break through the 'other' category pack. How are they going to do that when they are all essentially clones of each other?

 

[rockinred]

While I like my iPad better than other tablets....I do believe it is destroying the competition more because of the app store. The other tablets are solid pieces of hardware, just crappy in apps and functional features.

 

[TheGenerous]

Is this thread serious? I mean, is there a tablet war? c'mon