Shortage of OLED-Making Machines Could Potentially Impact Production of 2017 iPhone

[Duane Martin]

In your opinion, when a company designs a phone that is unable to be manufactured to the quantities needed (because of supposedly known manufacturing limits), whose fault is that?

So which company has designed what phone that cannot be manufactured to what needs? Or are you here from the future?

The article is stating that there simply isn't enough manufacturing capacity to supply OLED screens to the millions of iPhones that Apple ships so maybe people should temper their expectations. Reality sucks but it's still not Apple's fault.

 

[nighthawk67]

Taking bets - is the 2017 iphone an iPhone 7S or an iPhone 8?

7s @ +130
8 @ -175
[doublepost=1482427724][/doublepost]

So which company has designed what phone that cannot be manufactured to what needs? Or are you here from the future?

The article is stating that there simply isn't enough manufacturing capacity to supply OLED screens to the millions of iPhones that Apple ships so maybe people should temper their expectations. Reality sucks but it's still not Apple's fault.

This will probably be the reason there's a Pro version of the iPhone 8 and people will complain and blame Apple

 

[Duane Martin]

So, who is to blame if not Apple?

So somehow it's Apple's fault that the technology does not yet exist to manufacture OLED screens for the millions of iPhones Apple sells so people need to seriously temper their expectations? I guess it is Apple's fault because if they didn't actually make a product that millions of people wanted this wouldn't be an issue. Very clever of you, touché!

Oh, wait, given there is no Apple phone with an OLED screen (though careful and attentive reading might lead you to understand why this is the case) and this is all based on speculation of future expectations of a non-existent product, I am really just wasting time here. Given you have probably read "blah blah blah Apple apologist blah blah blah" I have wasted both our time.

 

[nighthawk67]

This is exactly what happened. Jony's ultimate iPhone is a featureless rounded slab, the elemental form, if you will. Apple chose to ship the iPhone 7 as a half-measure with some of the most controversial but necessary features of the 8, so that it would get all the bad press.

• Eliminating the 3.5mm jack and beefing up wireless audio capabilities lets them remove one mechanism and hole.
• Eliminating the mechanical home button with the fake one lets them remove another
• iPhone 8 will eliminate the Lightning port. You will have wireless/magnetic inductive charging for power, W2/bluetooth for audio.
• TouchID will be embedded directly into the glass face, which will cover the entire surface to the rounded edges on all sides.
• They will eliminate the mechanical buttons for volume as well.

The end result is a smooth rounded glass object that feels great in the hand, and interfaces with the world wirelessly. It's the most ambitious redesign ever. Unfortunately Tim is a ****-up so it is going to end up having severe supply constraints as this article speculates, or serious quality issues from being rushed to market too soon.

I will be selling all of my stock before its announcement.

This is absolutely genius, but it's not bad for Apple, many people didn't upgrade to the 7 so that's one more year outdate people will be on their iPhones and when they see this beautiful bezeless/buttonless iPhone they will be lining up for days! Apple has probably been planning this for years, they'll get it out on time, have a little faith!

 

[Mactendo]

Due to burn in feature OLED isn't a good choice for a phone.

 

[Duane Martin]

You have to admit though ... this sort of news has been more consistent than the Iphone release in September

Sorry, but admit what? That Apple "news" is more and more negative speculation and false information about non-existent products with less basis in truth than one half of a US presidential debate? You got me there.

 

[Mildredop]

So somehow it's Apple's fault that the technology does not yet exist to manufacture OLED screens for the millions of iPhones Apple sells so people need to seriously temper their expectations? I guess it is Apple's fault because if they didn't actually make a product that millions of people wanted this wouldn't be an issue. Very clever of you, touché!

Oh, wait, given there is no Apple phone with an OLED screen (though careful and attentive reading might lead you to understand why this is the case) and this is all based on speculation of future expectations of a non-existent product, I am really just wasting time here. Given you have probably read "blah blah blah Apple apologist blah blah blah" I have wasted both our time.

Goodness me, you get angered easily.

 

[admob71]

Due to burn in feature OLED isn't a good choice for a phone.

Please give documented evidence, not anecdotal where 2016/17 devices.suffer from burn in, and we r not taking about shop.units that are on 24/7 which is not real world usage.

 

[bwintx]

Due to burn in feature OLED isn't a good choice for a phone.

That was a big part of why I ended up upgrading to a 7 Plus rather than moving to the Google Pixel. It's also why I'm fine with Apple's staying mostly LCD-with-LED as long as the same display quality as on the 7 Plus can be achieved -- which is much nicer than on the 6 (not 6 Plus) I had before.

 

[Analog Kid]

In your opinion, when a company designs a phone that is unable to be manufactured to the quantities needed (because of supposedly known manufacturing limits), whose fault is that?

Ok, keeping in mind that this is a rumored potential shortage by a rumored potential supplier of equipment to a rumored potential supplier of components for a rumored product rumored to be a year away, I'll say this:


It can be manufactured to the quantities needed. The challenge here is how many people can have it in their hands on day 1.

Apple sells something like 200 million iPhones in a year. That OLED making monstrosity is something like 100 meters of machinery per production line. This leaves Apple with three choices:

1. What they do today, which is ramp up production some time before release day to work out kinks and supply some of the initial demand but make some people wait in line.
2. Build 200 million units before release day and make everyone wait before anyone gets one.
3. Raise the price of the phone so they and their suppliers can overspend on capital and factory capacity to build all the units upfront in less time and then idle all of that capacity for the rest of the year.

I know people enjoy trying to make Apple look greedy, stupid and evil, but I can't think of anything else of this complexity that is manufactured at this scale. Sometimes it isn't greed, stupidity or ill will, sometimes it's just hard.

 

[kdarling]

Due to burn in feature OLED isn't a good choice for a phone.

I personally haven't seen burn on one of my OLED phones in a long time now. All you have to do is not keep your phone at max brightness on the same screen all the time.

Also, OLEDs have gotten better.

There are various ways around it even if it happens. The coolest solution I've seen keeps track of how much each pixel has been used, and can boost their power, if you wish, to compensate. Demos are pretty cool - you can see an image beforehand, but then turn on the software compensation and bam! any burn disappears like magic. Of course, this slightly lessens the display life, but we're already talking years anyway.

I'm sure that Apple has taken all this into account.

 

[Kiwikat88]

Please give documented evidence, not anecdotal where 2016/17 devices.suffer from burn in, and we r not taking about shop.units that are on 24/7 which is not real world usage.

Just go do a google search, you'll find hundreds if not thousands of cases of newer phones having issues. I don't know what your standard for evidence is, but there's plenty of data points out there if you're willing to actually look. Both my old S3 and my current Note 4 have the issue (N4 got it within a couple months of usage), and I expect that my Pixel XL will as well in the future. Lots of pixel owners are already reporting burned-in screens where the buttons are. Luckily that isn't noticeable under most normal usage cases.

Burn-in IS a real problem. I'm a little annoyed that manufactures think OLED is necessary when Apple is shipping LCD screens with incredible color gamuts and brightness. As it is I have to set my Note 4 to a lower saturation setting because it looks absolutely absurd otherwise.

 

[jkichline]

$85 million a piece! Hot damn. For anyone suggesting Apple get into manufacturing, this is one of the reasons I think this idea is dumb. Manufacturing is cost intensive and ongoing considering the need to re-tool when introducing new tech. That's not including R&D and other stuff. It would eat profits like a lumberjack convention at a buffet.

$85 million? A piece? GTELHOH (get the ever loving hell outta here)

For $85 million a piece, you'd think they could make them look a bit nicer than a white trash version of Wall-E.

 

[justperry]

$85 million a piece! Hot damn. For anyone suggesting Apple get into manufacturing, this is one of the reasons I think this idea is dumb. Manufacturing is cost intensive and ongoing considering the need to re-tool when introducing new tech. That's not including R&D and other stuff. It would eat profits like a lumberjack convention at a buffet.

$85 million? A piece? GTELHOH (get the ever loving hell outta here)

I bet the picture below of a chipmaking machine from ASML costs even more, it's probably a third of the size of the one mentioned above but there's even much more technology inside, it's their new Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine.

 

[admob71]

Just go do a google search, you'll find hundreds if not thousands of cases of newer phones having issues. I don't know what your standard for evidence is, but there's plenty of data points out there if you're willing to actually look. Both my old S3 and my current Note 4 have the issue (N4 got it within a couple months of usage), and I expect that my Pixel XL will as well in the future. Lots of pixel owners are already reporting burned-in screens where the buttons are. Luckily that isn't noticeable under most normal usage cases.

Burn-in IS a real problem. I'm a little annoyed that manufactures think OLED is necessary when Apple is shipping LCD screens with incredible color gamuts and brightness. As it is I have to set my Note 4 to a lower saturation setting because it looks absolutely absurd otherwise.

S3? Lol really.. a 4 year old device.. I specifically said modern devices as tech comes on every year.

 

[WRChris]

Then stop buying Apple products. Nothing Tim Cook has done would warrant a firing.

The iPhone 7 is the best phone I've ever used.

That's what has happened? Sales are down across the board on all devices. We are all glad you are happy with buying an iPhone 6 every year. Look this one has 3 cameras and you won't be able to get the color you want for 2-3 months after launch.
I'll never understand why Apple chooses to not produce enough iPhones at launch. Do they not know they are releasing them? I understand creating artificial demand but honestly when I saw 2 months shipping estimates I decided right there I'll wait 12 months.

 

[jpn]

Got one more: Simless

i was thinking the same thing.

if apple succeeds in eliminating physical home button, lightning port, etc, it wouldn't make sense to still have a SIM port.

so the digital apple SIM needs to be in place.

i think that actual verifiable information about apple getting carriers into this digital SIM framework will able to reported on IF this is indeed happening. or maybe they will do a classic apple maneuver, and go ahead with no SIM port and only have the main USA carriers on board at time of launch and use the fact of needing to get more world wide carriers on board on a phased in approach to control (limit / match) the rumored supply chain constraints for the screen.

at any rate, it will suck if there is no SIM port and all the carriers I use monthly in various countries are not participating by the time I want to buy this phone.

 

[AFDoc]

After picking up an LG OLED Tv I'm pretty much sold on the looks of the screens... .not so much before that.

 

[johannnn]

I'm saying I want the newest of the newest tech (like OLED now). I don't want the tech that 20 factories can do with 0% error (like regular LCD now).

Why should there be a shortage in components every single year? Are you saying this is supposed to create some sort type of supply and demand?

You quoted "They are not pushing technology enough." Well technology can only be pushed so far until it's been ready and tested for the market. And you do realize that technology is usually tested 3–5 years prior to the actual product being released. You make it sound as if technology evolves overnight and should be ready for the market in less than a year.

Take the first generation Apple Watch for example, that was actually one of Steve Jobs last project he had his hands on. They actually started working on the Apple Watch back in 2011 prior to his death, when it actually released in April 2015. So with experimenting with heart rate sensors, fitness applications, and an OLED screen, likely took almost 5 years for the Apple Watch to be ready for the market. (And Apple
Is slower in releasing compared to competitors).

I think most don't truly understand, including myself, how far in advance technology is worked on until it's been ready for a public release. Engineering, implementation, design and functionality are all things to consider when looking at future products.

There's one thing for certain. Tech companies have to think about the future. They have to be a forward thinkers years from now. They have to be able to see where technology is going and the cycle of constantly evolving. I think that's with Steve Jobs did so well and some have said Apple has lost since his passing.

 

[bennyboy197]

Apple should have a special launch price at say $300 above the normal price for those who absolutely need to own these new iPhones on day one. Nothing wrong with Apple profiting from insane demand, and it's a price many of us would be willing to pay in order to guarantee an iPhone at launch. Once demand cools the price can go back down for the normals.

[doublepost=1482502305][/doublepost]Good idea in theory but also shows how heavily elitism plays a role in your opinion. How about instead, Apple improve on being more productive with a solution regarding manufacturing shortages instead of trying to create said 'shortage'

 

[Mactendo]

I personally haven't seen burn on one of my OLED phones in a long time now. All you have to do is not keep your phone at max brightness on the same screen all the time.

Also, OLEDs have gotten better.

There are various ways around it even if it happens. The coolest solution I've seen keeps track of how much each pixel has been used, and can boost their power, if you wish, to compensate. Demos are pretty cool - you can see an image beforehand, but then turn on the software compensation and bam! any burn disappears like magic. Of course, this slightly lessens the display life, but we're already talking years anyway.

I'm sure that Apple has taken all this into account.

The problem is real and regardless of solutions OLED screen will have a shorter life than LCD. Given the current great specs and quality of iPhone screens, switching to OLED is more like another marketing gimmick than a real necessity. OLED issues outweight its small benefits.
[doublepost=1482532696][/doublepost]

S3? Lol really.. a 4 year old device.. I specifically said modern devices as tech comes on every year.

Kiwikat88 specifically said just google it. There're reports for any devices.

 

[MrX8503]

I thought it was obvious that he was meaning the ip7 was better than last year's iPhone and so on...

And I said the iPhone 7 is the best PHONE I've ever used.

 

[MrX8503]

That's what has happened? Sales are down across the board on all devices. We are all glad you are happy with buying an iPhone 6 every year. Look this one has 3 cameras and you won't be able to get the color you want for 2-3 months after launch.
I'll never understand why Apple chooses to not produce enough iPhones at launch. Do they not know they are releasing them? I understand creating artificial demand but honestly when I saw 2 months shipping estimates I decided right there I'll wait 12 months.

Sales are down, but that's only because the 6 did so well. I see the iPhone stabilizing at this point and explosive growth is a thing of the past.

Apple doesn't choose to not produce enough phones. It's because they can't because of lower yields. Take for example the water proofing and mirror finish of the Jet Black iPhone.

OLEDs will be no different and will have major shortages. People complain ALL the time about how Apple isn't doing XYZ, but never even take a second to think about the hurdles involved to deliver 50M iPhones.

Other phone companies don't have this problem because they don't sell that many phones!

 

[kdarling]

The problem is real and regardless of solutions OLED screen will have a shorter life than LCD. Given the current great specs and quality of iPhone screens, switching to OLED is more like another marketing gimmick than a real necessity. OLED issues outweight its small benefits.

Yes, clearly manufacturers are moving to OLED because its benefits are so small

Or perhaps, just perhaps, the fact that they're thinner, lighter, have greater saturation and contrast, and can even be folded, might have something to do with it.

 

[WRChris]

Sales are down, but that's only because the 6 did so well. I see the iPhone stabilizing at this point and explosive growth is a thing of the past.

Apple doesn't choose to not produce enough phones. It's because they can't because of lower yields. Take for example the water proofing and mirror finish of the Jet Black iPhone.

OLEDs will be no different and will have major shortages. People complain ALL the time about how Apple isn't doing XYZ, but never even take a second to think about the hurdles involved to deliver 50M iPhones.

Other phone companies don't have this problem because they don't sell that many phones!

Those hurdles are there every single year and they never have sufficient stock at launch. I love Apple but you sound like a major fanboy. Black paint and no headphone jack warrants 2 months worth of backorder?
And keep telling yourself sales have leveled off because of the iPhone 6 doing so well. I use my iPhone 6 still and won't replace it with another