Sketchy Rumor Says Vision Pro Will Launch in Final Week of January

[G5isAlive]

Even if this tech could be miniaturized and fit inside a pair of normal glasses, I don't believe everyone will start wearing glasses instead of using a phone. When I put my phone down, my attention shifts and I like that. I don't think most people will want to see the world through a 24/7 phone screen. I see AR/VR as an add-on. One can imagine all kinds of cool ways of interacting with and modeling information in a 3D space.

You must be young (ish). You willingly accept the intrusion into your life that a smart phone makes because it apparently seems normal to you. You want to shift attention? Try a CORDED phone attached to the wall. Not a device that fits in your pocket and can follow and interrupt you anywhere you go. Oh no, we draw the line at eyeglasses. Because THAT'S too intrusive. You want to shift attention with eyeglasses, you take them off, and put them in your pocket. Or if you need corrective lenses, you turn off the smart glasses feature.

The whole future of this tech is if it can be miniaturized down to glasses (and affordable). Then it will become as much a part of the lives as the smartphone. Until then the AVP is more a demonstration of what can be, and open the door for developers to improve on, just like the first huge brick size satellite phones with huge luggable battery packs were the harbingers of that device you love so much today.

I dont expect AVP is going to change lives, no more than those early cell phones did, but it will open the door to the future. Some people will pay for that and enjoy the glimpse, the others will sit around arguing about the value and limits of the current version.

 

[deepspacecowboy]

I have a viable use case day one for the AVP.

I'm a writer, working on a very large philosophical project. The project, in the past, has been outlined in post-it notes that fill a full wall. It's been very clunky and not very amenable to editing, moving things around. The gummy part of the post-it notes wear off. They fall. If I move one, I have to move all of them to reorder the list.

I've since moved it all into Apple's Freeform. Much more convenient, but difficult to see and interact with the whole project at once. I need it to be the size of my wall, to be able to stand and look it over and re-arrange the elements. AVP will give me this capability on day one.

Further, in my writing, the biggest thing I need is to enter into "flow" which is a validated psychological state where productivity and thought are enhanced. It's my hope that by immersing myself in environments that I'll be able to hit that flow more readily than just sitting in my office.

This is my day one use case. We'll see how it works, but the AVP is compelling enough for me to give it a shot.

I love this. Having done some writing myself, I know exactly what you're talking about. I think we'll see what you describe coming to some of the writing apps like Ulysses and Scrivener. Interactive story/idea-boards are a very compelling use of this technology, one that has wide appeal and demonstrates tangible benefits over the current way of doing things.

You've touched on something with Freeform. At first I didn't really understand why Apple chose to release such an app. There are tons of similar third party apps. Why go there? But if you think of Freeform as a Vision Pro app first, the macOS and iOS apps make more sense. It will be interesting to see where Freeform fits into the Vision Pro picture.

 

[okieoutwest]

One can imagine all kinds of cool ways of interacting with and modeling information in a 3D space.

I worked for an extremely well resourced, global company in the late 2000s and worked specifically in a department they had started to experiment with AR in the industrial engineering setting we operated in. A prime candidate for AR enhancement, with the necessary database & real time monitoring tech infrastructure needed to make it work. It was always cool to see what was possible; it was another thing to understand the uptake challenges with the actual people who need to use it, who often already have another way of doing the job that is more intuitive to them because of years of practice, etc.

Like you, i'm excited to see what the possibilities are: I have reservations about whether it will ever be the mass consumer hit that Apple needs it to be in the market environment we're in!

I think many folks here are talking past one another, without acknowleding it's possible for many things to be true at the same time:

1) This is an interesting and positive development for computing tech writ large, even with limited initial applications, which isn't so different from all First Products
2) This is not a very good business case for Apple to have pursued following the at-scale success they require for their mainstream products (see iPhone mini vs. Pro, as just one example)
3) AVP's success or failure will not break Apple, because it is such a behemoth w.r.t. resources and cash to spend, and separating expectations about AVP vs. Apple as a whole is prudent -- Apple just isn't known for being a "test lab" type company putting out experimental products just to see what happens (whereas Google is, for better or worse, moreso).

 

[deepspacecowboy]

I worked for an extremely well resourced, global company in the late 2000s and worked specifically in a department they had started to experiment with AR in the industrial engineering setting we operated in. A prime candidate for AR enhancement, with the necessary database & real time monitoring tech infrastructure needed to make it work. It was always cool to see what was possible; it was another thing to understand the uptake challenges with the actual people who need to use it, who often already have another way of doing the job that is more intuitive to them because of years of practice, etc.

Like you, i'm excited to see what the possibilities are: I have reservations about whether it will ever be the mass consumer hit that Apple needs it to be in the market environment we're in!

I think many folks here are talking past one another, without acknowleding it's possible for many things to be true at the same time:

1) This is an interesting and positive development for computing tech writ large, even with limited initial applications, which isn't so different from all First Products
2) This is not a very good business case for Apple to have pursued following the at-scale success they require for their mainstream products (see iPhone mini vs. Pro, as just one example)
3) AVP's success or failure will not break Apple, because it is such a behemoth w.r.t. resources and cash to spend, and separating expectations about AVP vs. Apple as a whole is prudent -- Apple just isn't known for being a "test lab" type company putting out experimental products just to see what happens (whereas Google is, for better or worse, moreso).

Excellent take, grounded in reality, a rare gem of a post in these Vision Pro threads!

I don't see AR/VR becoming mainstream like the phone, ever. People who think we're going to wear AR glasses 24/7 and live in some sort of Minority Report reality have been watching way too much sci-fi, in my mind. Or, perhaps, not enough, when you consider that, in most sci-fi, AR/VR never plays an important role, if it even exists at all.

1) I agree. And I also expect Apple to have some additional compelling features on day one that they've been keeping under wraps.

2) That's a matter of perspective, right? Does Apple see this as a mainstream product? I don't think so. I don't think we should be comparing Vision Pro to the iPhone. When it comes to units sold, every other Apple product pales in comparison to iPhone. I think Apple has modest sales expectations for Vision Pro. The problem I see is developer support. Without it, the Vision Pro App Store looks like the Apple TV App Store and that isn't going to get potential Vision Pro buyers excited. So Apple does have to move enough units to get developers to fully embrace visionOS as a platform.

3) Totally agree. If Vision Pro isn't successful, Apple will be just fine. It will be a bit of egg on their faces, but it won't matter much to the bottom line.

 

[deepspacecowboy]

Exactly.

I now imagine FreeForm as a fully wrap-around screen where I can doodle ideas and thoughts, and have my writing monitor fixed in space in front of me, while having all my random notes and bits and pieces constantly able to be seen and grabbed, thrown into my writing.

Yes, if the board we see on macOS and iOS disappears in Vision Pro and you are immersed in your board...that will be very cool!

 

[MilaM]

What does this have to do with AVP?

I'm not against taking pictures at family events. What I find strange is constantly taking pictures of kids instead of engaging with them. There is always the screen between you and the people around you.

I'm just worried that the AVP will reinforce these tendencies even more. That is also the vibe I get when I see Apple's promotional materials. It's very off-putting and remids me of Black Mirror episodes.

 

[Surf Monkey]

I find your reply rather condescending.
That said, you did not reply to anything I said. The difference between categories and products is an important one. Both are cherry picking indeed, but he did give way, way better examples than you did - and more valid ones: categories, not products, and newer ones.
That was my point.
I will not be condescending back, as I do believe in being civilized. Cheers.

My point stands. You can pick Apple successes to list and Apple failures to list. Proves nothing.

 

[Surf Monkey]

You are replying to your own ideas about what I said. As you suggest phones can be used in the OR (thus the controversy) and whether or not the AVP is considered a medical device depends on what role it is playing. I don’t know how examples help with your internal distress.

Use of Vision Pro in a surgery context is not going to happen. To be used in surgery it would need FDA approval. The whole argument use in a surgical theater is going to happen with Vision Pro is completely and totally unrealistic.

 

[Surf Monkey]

You are replying to your own ideas about what I said. As you suggest phones can be used in the OR (thus the controversy) and whether or not the AVP is considered a medical device depends on what role it is playing. I don’t know how examples help with your internal distress.

So you can’t provide any real world examples. Got it.

 

[Surf Monkey]

On your own.

And there’s nothing wrong with that. But for me this is the fundamental flaw of this device, yes you can watch films, view 3D photos and have immersive sports but non of these experiences can you share with anyone. And a lot of the time these are all things you do with others.

Basically anyone with a wife or a girlfriend:

Her - “You watched it without me??!!”

The idea that an isolated movie watching experience will be optimal or preferred by the mainstream viewer? Utterly absurd.

 

[Surf Monkey]

WHy 3D failed is a very complicated issue...but in part Hollywood did it to themselves. Only James Cameron seemed to actually take the tech serious and so he produced the one amazing 3D experience in Avatar which kept 3D limping around for a decade more while the rest of the movies produced were usually converted to 3D or had terrible 3D. Very few other 3D experiences compared and so the tech died not just because the glasses but because the media was trash.

This problem still exists and is why as pure consumption tool the AVP is probably doomed...because most media made will be cheap garbage 3D. Why is the only demo movie shown Avatar 2? Because it is the only other movie that is truly great in 3D. But the TV and glasses are still better than the AVP because you can watch with multiple people.

So...unless AVP is actually useful productively it dies because there isn't enough great media to be worth a single user viewing device that costs $3500. So the question will come down to can real people use it productively? I think people experimenting with it in productivity environments (like me) will try it out to get to a gen 2 but unless it ultimately can be productive it will die. It only needs to sell in small numbers to continue.

Studios have been trying to make 3D succeed for over 70 years. It fails every time because it doesn’t offer anything of value to the movie watching experience.

 

[Surf Monkey]

My wife has no interest in watching football with me. On occasion I get friends together to watch the game. But more frequently, we're texting each other about it during the game. The AVP has no impact on this. And, I watch a lot of shows on my own without my wife or my children. And then we come together and watch things as a family, too. It's not either/or.

Cool anecdote. But there’s a reason what I said is a stereotype. Your personal habits don’t change that.

And, as I continue to say, those of you fixated on single ideas about what the AVP is are missing the point. It's that one thing you're fixated on and 100 things more.

And again with this idea of "mainstream?"

False accusation. I was discussing a single criticism. I’m not “fixated” on it at all. There are PLENTY of other blatantly obvious problems with Vision Pro.

 

[Jensend]

On your own.

And there’s nothing wrong with that. But for me this is the fundamental flaw of this device, yes you can watch films, view 3D photos and have immersive sports but non of these experiences can you share with anyone. And a lot of the time these are all things you do with others.

I recently watched a movie in VR with a few friends. I think VR is the best way to connect with people who are physically distant.

 

[Surf Monkey]

I worked for an extremely well resourced, global company in the late 2000s and worked specifically in a department they had started to experiment with AR in the industrial engineering setting we operated in. A prime candidate for AR enhancement, with the necessary database & real time monitoring tech infrastructure needed to make it work. It was always cool to see what was possible; it was another thing to understand the uptake challenges with the actual people who need to use it, who often already have another way of doing the job that is more intuitive to them because of years of practice, etc.

Like you, i'm excited to see what the possibilities are: I have reservations about whether it will ever be the mass consumer hit that Apple needs it to be in the market environment we're in!

I think many folks here are talking past one another, without acknowleding it's possible for many things to be true at the same time:

1) This is an interesting and positive development for computing tech writ large, even with limited initial applications, which isn't so different from all First Products
2) This is not a very good business case for Apple to have pursued following the at-scale success they require for their mainstream products (see iPhone mini vs. Pro, as just one example)
3) AVP's success or failure will not break Apple, because it is such a behemoth w.r.t. resources and cash to spend, and separating expectations about AVP vs. Apple as a whole is prudent -- Apple just isn't known for being a "test lab" type company putting out experimental products just to see what happens (whereas Google is, for better or worse, moreso).

People like to talk about it as if Apple just invented VR/AR, but that isn’t the case. The Vision Pro is a late comer to an existing market segment. Their “innovation” in this case appears to be the OS and little more.

 

[Surf Monkey]

I recently watched a movie in VR with a few friends. I think VR is the best way to connect with people who are physically distant.

No doubt, but that isn’t going to move tens of millions of units.

 

[Surf Monkey]

I think the AVP resets the cost of software for it. I don't think its app store will be dominated by 99¢ games and toy apps like most IOS devices; rather, I think it will be full of $99 or $299 or $599 apps for high-end work and creativity. It will take more work to develop compelling apps for the platform, but done right, such apps have the possibility of transforming industries and workflows. Like Industrial Engineering. Architecture. Sculpting combined with 3D printing. Theoretical Math. Theoretical Physics. Professional Audio Production. Film Production. Etc.

It is this possibility that I think will capture the imagination of enterprising developers who have grown tired of selling their apps for 99¢.

Sure, you may have a 3D version of Fruit Ninja...but I don't think this is going to be the core of the AVP. Nor will movies. But, as I mentioned before...I'd pay a ton for in-field 3D views of football.

Expensive software won’t benefit the Vision Pro.

 

[citysnaps]

It isn’t going to happen, no matter how many times you double down and qualify your initial comments.

Once more, read carefully. I didn't say it is going to happen. I'm saying if Apple wanted to pursue that market they could.

Try and not let that upset you. There's no reason to let that happen.

 

[G5isAlive]

Basically anyone with a wife or a girlfriend:

Her - “You watched it without me??!!”

The idea that an isolated movie watching experience will be optimal or preferred by the mainstream viewer? Utterly absurd.

almost as absurd as an isolated music listening experience ever taking off...

oh wait. wasn't there a company called Sony that made a huge profit off of a device called the Walkman, or a company called Apple that made tons of a device for personal music listening called the iPod?!

and look around, you saying you never see anyone staring at a portable small screen watching movies, certainly not on a plane, or train, or bus, or on lunch break.. like who flies these days?!

NOT saying the Vision Pro will hit those numbers, clearly not, but there are certainly times when a number of people dare I say many people if not most are ALREADY engaging in isolated movie watching experiences. Totally absurd not to acknowledge that reality.

The difference with the AVP is cost. Will it sell 400,000 units? Most likely. Mind blowing to me the number of people that seem to take that personally and manufacture any excuses to put it down.

 

[G5isAlive]

No doubt, but that isn’t going to move tens of millions of units.

except we are only talking about 400,000 units.

 

[MilaM]

Take xmas, for example. I filmed my daughters excitement at first seeing what Santa brought to her. Then I spent the next many hours playing with her with the toys and gifts she got.

I have experienced exactly the same thing this Christmas, with the difference that it was my niece and not my daugther. Parrents and grandparrent of course could not resist taking videos of everything. But this was just a small digression.

My point is that, in my mind, the VR headset is a very antisocial experience. It creates a barrier between you and your surroundings that is much more profound than say watching TV on a big screen or doing something on your phone or tablet. I can see how this can be desirable in some circumstances. But in a family context, I just can't see it working in a positive way.

 

[citysnaps]

One of many professions that will find Apple's AVP interesting and useful are home and building architects. And of course landscape architects and interior designers.

No doubt architects/designers along with app developers will be all over that. It will be a huge step up in how customers of the above currently review plans and designs with 3D walk-throughs, allowing some changes to be accommodated in real time with clients.

Today that's done with paper drawings and 3D-simulated computer screen displays that are pretty crude and don't give the feeling of actually being in designed spaces/rooms or gardens.

 

[citysnaps]

Exactly. This is a sign that many people have some weird personal issue with the AVP. Criticisms like this are NOT based in a logical analysis of the device and its capabilities. But in picking some random issue and trying to make that a central criticism. Such a strange phenomenon that has totally overtaken MacRumors in the last several years. Spending hours upon hours attacking a product of a company that you don't like and wont' buy.

Yeah... it's a real shame and really drags this place down.

There good news is there are other forums where that doesn't happen.

 

[Surf Monkey]

This is what I mean about fixating on single issues. The idea that movies are what is going to make the AVP successful or not completely misses the point of the AVP. The person you were responding too wasn't suggesting that watching movies in VR is "the killer app" for the AVP. Only that it's a viable use. One use of many.

False accusation. There are many issues with this device beyond isolated media consumption.

 

[deepspacecowboy]

People like to talk about it as if Apple just invented VR/AR, but that isn’t the case. The Vision Pro is a late comment to an existing market segment. Their “innovation” in this case appears to be the OS and little more.

I'd say the "innovation" is the Apple Secret Sauce (which, of course, includes the OS). This is another example of Apple strategically arriving late to the party. They've enjoyed several massive successes following this strategy, most notably iPod and iPhone. If you think about it, these are their only two products that truly disrupted a large existing market.

(Both of those products more than laid the foundation for success in wearables with the Watch and headphones with the Airpods line. Without the iPod and iPhone, Apple would not be the #1 watch and headphone brand in the world. They probably wouldn't even be in those markets.)

Vision Pro is different in the sense that the AR/VR market is very small and no device has gained much traction with consumers. By the time the iPod came along, billions of people around the world were listening to cassettes and CDs on portable music players. A few MP3 players had started to gain traction. Apple timed it right. File sharing was happening. Internet access was becoming more affordable and accessible. Storage costs were coming down. Creative and a few others had more than proved the concept. It was time to ditch the cassette tapes and CDs. iPod really is the product that made Apple.

With Vision Pro there isn't a big AR/VR market to disrupt - unless they aren't trying to disrupt the AR/VR market but consider Vision Pro's market to be the entire computing market, personal, business, and mobile. I think some would argue that is precisely what Apple is trying to do. I don't think so.

I think Vision Pro is an example of Steve's old car vs. truck metaphor. Different tools for different tasks. I believe an iPhone-like device will always be our primary device. I don't believe people want to experience reality through video feeds or wear glasses in order to have screens in front of them 24/7. But there are many tasks that could be enhanced by working in a three dimensional space.

Existing AR/VR products haven't gotten much traction. One of the reasons, I would argue, is that they are essentially stand-alone devices and, as such, feel somewhat lacking. Vision Pro benefits greatly from the Apple ecosystem. It's another arrow in the quiver. Unlike iPod, iPhone, Watch and Airpods, however, this time Apple has to convince the consumer to adopt a new technology, not merely sell them a better mousetrap.

On a side note, I'd like to see them ditch all of the VisionOS features and strip Vision Pro down to an amazing portable movie screen with a built-in 6-8 hours of battery for $599 as an accessory. They'd sells hundreds of millions and I'd be first in line!

 

[Surf Monkey]

Productive software. Well made. Providing previously unavailable tools.

That won’t move millions of units. It needs casual software to succeed.

But look, you hate this product. We get it.

I don’t hate it. It just find it amusing how far supporters will bend over backwards to defend it, even in light of a long list of serious issues it presents.