So apple watch...is this really a flop?

[Dingo Dave 69]

I like to start off by saying I ain't trolling. And on to the main point of discussion....

At first I was unsure about the watch. To cut a long story short, I have bought one and whilst it is a very different type of product to iPhones/iPads etc I am happy with it. I am used to wearing a watch but the added bonuses of an apple watch are great and I like it.

I don't think it will ever take off in the way iPhones did but I think that's partly down to it being a watch first and foremost. I think it is a product that will grow its user base and develop however. The health and fitness possibilities are great and I have missed it the times I haven't been using it. With Apple pay launching recently in the UK it is even handier.

I don't see why people are disappointed in it, what are those people expecting from it? Grateful for views

 

[applewatch]

No, it's not.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3327505-apple-watch-sales-off-to-a-great-start

 

[oneMadRssn]

I think Apple could have sold millions of anything right at launch based on (1) their very impressive marketing operation and (2) their good will / reputation. Not saying Apple would deliberately sell garbage and totally ruin their good will, but I think Apple could have sold plastic bags of an unknown contents for $350 and still sold millions. That's just a testament to how powerful the Apple brand is.

Thus, more important than sales figures are sales trends. Are sales sloping upwards or downwards? Since I doubt sales slopes are constant, are the slopes of the sales trends (calculus ftw!) steadily increasing or steadily decreasing?

People seem to blow off the Slice Intelligence report, but I think it's the best and most accurate report we're going to see until Apple gives us real numbers. Plus, given their sample size is huge, I would tend to believe their analysis.

Another dataset is the resale market. It can also reveal some insight into how the overall Apple Watch market is doing. I haven't looked at price trends on ebay though.

 

[Dingo Dave 69]

I can't see the second hand market for wearables being good. For a first gen product tho it seems to be doing well. I just wonder where the criticism comes from

 

[Brien]

I think Apple could have sold millions of anything right at launch based on (1) their very impressive marketing operation and (2) their good will / reputation. Not saying Apple would deliberately sell garbage and totally ruin their good will, but I think Apple could have sold plastic bags of an unknown contents for $350 and still sold millions. That's just a testament to how powerful the Apple brand is.

Thus, more important than sales figures are sales trends. Are sales sloping upwards or downwards? Since I doubt sales slopes are constant, are the slopes of the sales trends (calculus ftw!) steadily increasing or steadily decreasing?

People seem to blow off the Slice Intelligence report, but I think it's the best and most accurate report we're going to see until Apple gives us real numbers. Plus, given their sample size is huge, I would tend to believe their analysis.

Another dataset is the resale market. It can also reveal some insight into how the overall Apple Watch market is doing. I haven't looked at price trends on ebay though.

I haven't really seen them in the wild nor heard much buzz from 'normal' folks, but IIRC the original iPhone launch was similar.

 

[moetownslick]

interesting side note...went in to buy a new ipad air 2 and casually asked the salesguy if the watch has been selling well (the try-on tables were packed btw). He said they've been selling really well. And I already had my SG BSB on, so it wasn't like he was trying to sell me up lol

 

[oneMadRssn]

I haven't really seen them in the wild nor heard much buzz from 'normal' folks, but IIRC the original iPhone launch was similar.

I original iPhone launch is a tough comparison for a few reasons: (1) it was exclusive to AT&T and priced ridiculously high as compared to other smartphones at the time - thus the potential pool of buyers was small; and (2) Apple's reputation at that time wasn't as high - Apple was riding on the success of the iPod, but it was still a pretty niche brand back then.

From what I've seen, the original iPhone launch was strong, but sales trended upwards. There was no immediate post-launch decline. There was actually probably a good post-launch uptick in sales when Apple dropped the price significantly a few months later (another reason it's a tough comparison). Indeed, every iPhone launch has been stronger than the one before it. From what one company has revealed about their analysis, it looks like Apple Watch sales may be declining post-launch, which could be a bad sign. That said, maybe because Apple was so efficient and so good at getting pre-orders filled, they met all the demand quickly, and that is why post-launch sales are down - that's not a bad sign but rather a testament to Apple's excellent logistics.

I think the true first test of Apple Watch's success will be holiday shopping. If Apple Watch can dominate holiday shopping, and be the must-get consumer electronic this season, then it's a success. If you see big discounts at Best Buy and Target and similar stores on Apple Watch way into December (like we did with the iPad this past year), then it's a sign they're not moving as many of them as Apple had hoped.

 

[Mac2me]

I think Apple could have sold millions of anything right at launch based on (1) their very impressive marketing operation and (2) their good will / reputation. Not saying Apple would deliberately sell garbage and totally ruin their good will, but I think Apple could have sold plastic bags of an unknown contents for $350 and still sold millions. That's just a testament to how powerful the Apple brand is.

Thus, more important than sales figures are sales trends. Are sales sloping upwards or downwards? Since I doubt sales slopes are constant, are the slopes of the sales trends (calculus ftw!) steadily increasing or steadily decreasing?

People seem to blow off the Slice Intelligence report, but I think it's the best and most accurate report we're going to see until Apple gives us real numbers. Plus, given their sample size is huge, I would tend to believe their analysis.

Another dataset is the resale market. It can also reveal some insight into how the overall Apple Watch market is doing. I haven't looked at price trends on ebay though.

While a lot of people/media have made that comment about selling anything, I started off thinking a watch was a dumb idea for Apple. Since it didn't get released for a while, I actually spent a decent amount of time learning about it after it was announced. I didn't go it to it blindly. By the time the second week rolled around during the pre-release decided I was willing to give it, and the whole wearing-watches-again, a try. Went for a try-on and after some indecision on which one and what band, got my order in. Learned more while waiting. I may not be typical but I don't think people who bought bought one just because it was an Apple product.

Started off with the features I most thought I would use, and last week added Heath/activities. I'm not a group exercise person and didn't think I'd like the Stand reminder or Activities rings but after a week of turning them on, find that I really do and for some reason actually find myself wanting to do better each day. Can only see that as a positive to my overall health. More to explore in the weeks ahead. I already know that I like my watch so I'm sold on it as a good purchase for me. Yesterday I was surprised to have a sales clerk ask me about my watch. Husband was buying some jeans and the clerk a guy obviously knew what it was. Third person to see it on me and ask about it. Other two were barristas at Starbucks.

I think people are interested in it. I'm actually shocked how many people in general I see with watches on these days. Thought it was a pretty dead market. I think when more people see it in person and know that they can personalize it to such an extent including third party bands, there's a good chance they will be good candidates for it. Of course iPhone users are the best adoption base. With the watch out in the wild for many months before the holiday season, I think that will be time we'll see a good upswing in AW on people's wrists. My hubby who hasn't expressed too much interest in it so far asked to put it on yesterday and checked his heart rate. He likes to hike and is very competitive with himself pushing himself so I think he may adopt one at some point.

 

[mcdj]

I think the Watch is basically the TV for your wrist. That is to say, it is not, nor will likely ever be, Apple's most popular product, but one which complements its ecosystemic approach to its lineup of products, sells enough to warrant future versions, and will maintain profitability.

Apple clearly understands that not every product they make will be iPhone-hot.

The TV is in its 8th year and 3rd version. It has sold millions. I see no reason the Watch can't follow a similar path. And make no mistake, that path is not one of a flop.

 

[Amplelink]

I think the Watch is basically the TV for your wrist. That is to say, it is not, nor will likely ever be, Apple's most popular product, but one which complements its ecosystemic approach to its lineup of products, sells enough to warrant future versions, and will maintain profitability.

Apple clearly understands that not every product they make will be iPhone-hot.

The TV is in its 8th year and 3rd version. It has sold millions. I see no reason the Watch can't follow a similar path. And make no mistake, that path is not one of a flop.

I agree with this, but I also think it's a little early to set the Apple Watch on the Apple TV path. The problem with Apple TV was (and is) that its major component - content - is not something that Apple controls. Look at how long it's taken to get content deals in place. Nor has Apple really opened the operating system up for third party development. So its usability has been really hampered.

Apple Watch is clearly on a different path. Watch OS 2 opens things up significantly for third party developers. The usefulness of the watch is more a function of software limitations than anything else. Once we get interesting and useful software that works with the watch, the sky really could be the limit.

 

[yaboyac29]

lower the price to $249/299 for the sport and they'll fly off the shelves imho.

$349/$399 to start is too much.

 

[Steve686]

It's a market that will grow over time as more and more traditional style watches enter a declining period.

At first I had a hard time not wanting to wear my Tag, but as I used the AW more and more, it has started to become my goto device throughout the day for sifting through messages, emails, and sports news/scores(Bleacher report is excellent on AW).

The other issue, if you want to call it that, is that the watch is slaved to an iPhone. I'm sure there are a lot of people who would buy the watch if it was compatible with other phone maker's devices. This takes me back to the days of the original iPhone launch and only AT&T having the rights to offer the service for iPhone for the first few years.

A lot of people probably wanted an iPhone, but were stuck with other carriers under the specter of ETFs and the fact that AT&T's service coverage area back then wasn't nearly as good as it is now.

 

[Shinigami301]

They seem to be flying off the shelves at my local Apple store now. Not sure what a margin decrease would do for Apple, this isn't for everyone.

 

[Mad Mac Maniac]

It's far too early to determine if it's "going to" be a flop. Regarding whether the first 2.5 months have been a flop, I think that has to be a resounding no way. Sure there has been a lot of negative press, but negative apple press has been clickbait for 5 years. Apple is making as many AW as they can and have been selling them faster than they can make them. The recent satisfaction survey (regardless of how statistically significant) shows that many people are happy with it (myself included).

My personal opinion is that it will not be a flop, but "flop" means different things to different people depending on expectations. I don't think the AW needs to sell in iPhone numbers to be successful. As it stands now, AW's purpose is to reinforce the apple ecosystem, especialy the iPhone. I think AW sales will be a merge of iPhone/iPad sales patterns (and honestly the worst of both), but should still be considered a success. I think Gen 1 will have the slow/moderate sales of iPhone 1 and then pick up better with Gen 2. Then it will grow at a satisfactory rate and reach maturation within a few years (similar to iPad).

 

[enzo thecat]

interesting side note...went in to buy a new ipad air 2 and casually asked the salesguy if the watch has been selling well (the try-on tables were packed btw). He said they've been selling really well. And I already had my SG BSB on, so it wasn't like he was trying to sell me up lol

That's a turn of events. I went to the Apple store the day they were unveiled on the stores. IT was PACKED. But the tables with the watches were empty. No one cared. The Mbs, ipad, and iphone tables had lines. I couldnt believe it. I even felt sorry for the Apple employees. I saw posts here on MR with people that had similar experiences. Nice to hear the interest has picked up now that its available for sale.

 

[Even Longer]

It can't be a flop, - I bought two.

 

[applewatch]

It can't be a flop, - I bought two.

Me two.

 

[Klaatu63]

I agree that it way to early to determine the success or failure of the Apple Watch. I bought one bur returned it for a number of issues - that I am sure will be fixed with future software upgrades.

But I am amazed at the lack of "in store" Apple Watch activity. I live near two Apple stores and rarely do I see anyone looking at the product. Especially now when most of the watches are now in stock and immediately available.

 

[silverblack]

I think Apple could have sold millions of anything right at launch based on (1) their very impressive marketing operation and (2) their good will / reputation. Not saying Apple would deliberately sell garbage and totally ruin their good will, but I think Apple could have sold plastic bags of an unknown contents for $350 and still sold millions. That's just a testament to how powerful the Apple brand is.

I didn't think the new ultraslim 12" MacBook is sell all that well (less than half a million?), neither was the super expensive MacPro. The $$$$ seems to be a common factor here.

 

[Newtons Apple]

The Watch will NEVER be as popular as the iPhone. Apple never expected it to be.

I trust that Apple know what it is doing and they will do just fine. It is a brand new product in an entirely different class. I am enjoying mine but would not mind a little update or two.

 

[Dingo Dave 69]

Lots of good comments here. I echo thoughts that it will never be as popular as the iPhone but the iPhone truly was/is a unique success story. I am surprised when people say they are disappointed in the watch, what exactly is it missing?

For a gen one product it's great and hope it continues to grow. I have the sport and have been eyeing up the steel, but will be waiting for gen 2 for that upgrade

 

[syphern]

Should have been lower price may be bundled with iPhone 6+

Needed better battery

Needs better software currently it sucks and I have tried beta 2

Overall amazing hardware though the heart rate monitor bands and the design is amazing but the top things need to change

 

[KPOM]

Luca Maestri said that the Watch sales beat internal expectations and were higher than the iPhone and iPad at the same point after launch. We know it took the iPhone 74 days to sell 1 million. The iPad's first full quarter sales were 3.27 million. Even a raw extrapolation of 67 days selling days (vs 89 for the iPad in its first quarter) suggests around 2.5 million Watch sales or more.

http://www.dailydot.com/technology/apple-watch-sales-perspective/

 

[Michael CM1]

I think the Watch is basically the TV for your wrist. That is to say, it is not, nor will likely ever be, Apple's most popular product, but one which complements its ecosystemic approach to its lineup of products, sells enough to warrant future versions, and will maintain profitability.

Apple clearly understands that not every product they make will be iPhone-hot.

The TV is in its 8th year and 3rd version. It has sold millions. I see no reason the Watch can't follow a similar path. And make no mistake, that path is not one of a flop.

Pretty good analogy, although they're obviously different. Wall Street seems to be so NOW NOW NOW about this thing. By the financial numbers in the "other" category and the fact that it surely was not buoyed by three-year-old iPods or cheaper Apple TVs, I'd say it's at least "doing fine" for now. It really feels a bit like a video game system that hooked a bunch of us "YES APPLE, WE WILL BUY" people but others are waiting for the Zelda or Halo of the Apple Watch. I can't say what that will be, but it could be right.

It's definitely helping me work out more. I wish it were able to sense when I'm lifting weights, but I understand that it's not magic. I have found that I get tons of workout credit from using my indoor bike but don't from taking a walk out in the back yard. When they say brisk walk, they mean you have to look like one of the walkers that is moving fast because they gotta hold in a poo. My ankle is still recovering, so the bike is a really good option for me.

Apple just gets crazy expectations and can only "win" in the eyes of some by creating the next iPhone. By that I mean the next product as awesome as the iPhone. That's just crazy to expect. It's a thing people almost always need on them now and that gets upgraded about every two years by most people. The technology surrounding it changes significantly enough to coerce upgrades (3G, LTE, Bluetooth, Touch ID, display quality) way more than for iPads and Macs right now.

I own a couple shares of Apple stock, which is why this whole "Apple makes bajillion dollars in record third quarter, stock drops 8 percent" stuff baffles me. But thankfully Apple is rolling in the dough and isn't a company to yank a product that is likely doing pretty well. This obviously isn't a Surface or Fire Phone. But you get more clicks if HA HA APPLE FAILED, so there that is.

 

[hufflematt]

I think the Watch is basically the TV for your wrist.

I hope it is. And I hope it isn't.

I hope it is, because the form factor of the TV has basically not changed at all. No desperate need to upgrade to the latest style.

But I hope it isn't, because they've been incredibly lazy with TV. I actually recently sold mine and replaced it with an Amazon Fire TV, which is basically the same thing but much better implemented. It's equally good looking, and far more functional.