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So apple watch...is this really a flop?

mantan said:
LOL...they are Tesla fans! Which by definition are people who going to be early adopter types.

What made other Apple products special is the broad appeal to consumers. You could pull together 38 owners of Honda, Chevy's, Nissan's, Lexus's, BMW's, Hyundai's, Ford's, Kia's of any age group and likely 40% of them have an iPhone or iPad.

But the AW at it's current price/functionality is a niche product.
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Yes Tesla owners are early adopters but not necessarily geeks. Another interesting thing was that almost half of the AW's were being worn by women.

By definition, AW only sells to owners of iPhones so sales should be much smaller than iPhone sales. I expect AW will make several billion dollars this year. I would love to have a business that size.
 
papbot said:
I think it all depends on people figuring out how these things will fit into their lives. Prior to the iPhone very few people had smart phones now everyone does. We evolve just as technology does.
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It just has to get cheaper. Many people pay less than $200 for their phone every 2 years. I would have kept mine if it was $250 or lower.
 
oghowie said:
It just has to get cheaper. Many people pay less than $200 for their phone every 2 years. I would have kept mine if it was $250 or lower.
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Isn't that what people say about Macs? Price the equivalent Dell. An XPS 15 costs $2500 with 512GB SSD which matches the Macbook Pro although the Macbook Pro has a faster CPU and a faster SSD subsystem. People always say "If Apple would make a $500 laptop they would sell more." Maybe, but that isn't what Apple is about. Apple Watch is a premium product. Despite some reports I bet that if Samsung made an equivalent product (including build quality) that it would cost about the same. I don't think $350 vs. $250 would be some huge tipping point; especially if it resulted in lower build quality or lesser functionality.
 
oghowie said:
It just has to get cheaper. Many people pay less than $200 for their phone every 2 years. I would have kept mine if it was $250 or lower.
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Apples and oranges here, no pun intended lol.


Many phone vendors and such cut deals to get that price lower. Or they eat some loss to get you on their plans. give a little to get a lot. Short term gain is cell provider A can say on reports hey we picked up 1000 new customers this period. Ergo took away 1000 customers from competing providers as a side bene.

Long term goal/gamble....those 1000 stay for a while and they make the money back on the service fees over time. In japan for example in the past to push G networks they would give away for 0 yen (free lol) a brand new Ipad or mini. The plan cost for this though....overtime you'd be better off buying your own and tethering or running off public wifi's.

This model won't work here. Since an apple store/vendor sell....they can't use loss leader model. Based on seeing several true apple stores in Tokyo and some authorized vendors in the prefecture I live in Japan...these places are not struggling to bring in customers to buy stuff to use loss leader model.


Apple is making a high quality watch here by many accounts. Cheapest mechanical watch I have ever owned is in the 200-250 range. Its most advanced feature was the spinning day number. YOu know, the one on months not 31 days you have to hand reset.

Also apple will always sell phones. Its damn near a necessity these days. Watches are kind of niche. Many people just aren't watch people. My wife isn't for example. Needs to know the time...she looks at her, well, iphone or asks me lol.

Less of a market....cost will go up for those who are watch people.
 
oghowie said:
It just has to get cheaper. Many people pay less than $200 for their phone every 2 years. I would have kept mine if it was $250 or lower.
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You're paying a lot more than $200 for that phone. That's just the upfront cost with a new contract. Most carriers are trying to get away from that model and have you pay the full price of the phone usually over time with no contract and a lesser monthly fee. There is no contract with the watch so no subsidy. It's not going to get cheaper and going by the sales numbers I've seen there is no reason for them to even consider doing so.
 
SR22pilot said:
Isn't that what people say about Macs? Price the equivalent Dell. An XPS 15 costs $2500 with 512GB SSD which matches the Macbook Pro although the Macbook Pro has a faster CPU and a faster SSD subsystem. People always say "If Apple would make a $500 laptop they would sell more." Maybe, but that isn't what Apple is about. Apple Watch is a premium product. Despite some reports I bet that if Samsung made an equivalent product (including build quality) that it would cost about the same. I don't think $350 vs. $250 would be some huge tipping point; especially if it resulted in lower build quality or lesser functionality.
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I don't think it's about Apple VS competitors, since the Apple Watch is your only option for true iOS integration.

The watch isn't a flop, but it's not a home run either. Just like the first iPad, there's a lot of room for improvement and I I might revisit it when watchOS 2 comes out. I'm almost certain I'll buy it next year if they revise it.

For myself, the $400+ was a lot for a watch that showed me my iOS notifications and let me imessage people. I could not reply to people through Google Hangouts yet or interact with many of the notifications I got, which I think will change with the OS update. The fitness stuff also seemed pretty half baked and didn't work nearly as well as I thought it would.

Overall, it just seems not ready for prime time and watchOS 2 is probably how the OS should've launched.
 
oghowie said:
I don't think it's about Apple VS competitors, since the Apple Watch is your only option for true iOS integration.
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I think that's the reason this has been a success and will be an even bigger one in the future. All my closest friends including family members and even neighbors all had some other phone about 5 years ago now all of them have iPhones. The hospital that my wife works at is now supplying administrative and managerial staff iPhones and dropping their Blackberrys. Many of them have found the watch to be extremely convenient to keep up with workplace matters. My wife uses hers all day long at work.

For you it obviously wasn't or isn't as useful. But for us and everyone I've met that has one we couldn't do without them. Especially those in business or upper management roles or medical staff who are finding them invaluable. It took the iPhone to convince people that they needed a smartphone. I think this may also do the same for wearable devices, and it might not be an Apple product that is the right one for you. How is Google glass doing these days?
 
oghowie said:
I don't think it's about Apple VS competitors, since the Apple Watch is your only option for true iOS integration.
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After getting my Apple Watch, I loaned my Pebble watch to a friend, and she thinks just getting iMessage notifications on a smartwatch is great integration. Plus some iOS fitness apps have compatible Pebble counterpart apps. From the Kickstarter point-of-view, the Pebble and Pebble Time certainly weren't flops, but big hits, and Apple is doing multiple times better with their Watch.
 
firewood said:
After getting my Apple Watch, I loaned my Pebble watch to a friend, and she thinks just getting iMessage notifications on a smartwatch is great integration. Plus some iOS fitness apps have compatible Pebble counterpart apps. From the Kickstarter point-of-view, the Pebble and Pebble Time certainly weren't flops, but big hits, and Apple is doing multiple times better with their Watch.
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You can't reply from the watch though right? I'd even think about the Moto 360 if you could get notifications and reply to messages. That thing is only $150 right now. lol
 
It's a relative term. When compared to an iPhone or even the iPad, I think it's a flap. When compared to just about anything else out there, It's a great success. It's the first device from Apple that I haven't purchased and have no plans to purchase.
 
firewood said:
After getting my Apple Watch, I loaned my Pebble watch to a friend, and she thinks just getting iMessage notifications on a smartwatch is great integration.
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True, I think a lot of people would get by just fine with a less expensive notification watch.

Come to think of it, that's mostly what I use mine for. Time and notifications on my wrist. For apps, I pull out my smartphone or grab a nearby iPad mini.
 
iMi said:
It's a relative term. When compared to an iPhone or even the iPad, I think it's a flap. When compared to just about anything else out there, It's a great success. It's the first device from Apple that I haven't purchased and have no plans to purchase.
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Everything has to start from somewhere. When I first got the original iPhone very few people that I knew had any Apple products other than an iPod. Nobody that I knew had a mac. Now almost all my close friends have iPads, iPhones, macs. Several have the watch. The Pebble was what I was watching closely with plans to purchase if Apple did not come out with their version. I knew right away how useful it would be to me.

Last winter cemented my thinking when my phone was buried in the pockets of the parkas I was wearing or even worse in my pants pocket underneath the parkas. I really hadn't thought the health and fitness applications would be that important to me but I am definitely using them every day. I'm still convinced, whether it's an Apple product or no,t these devices are going to be quite common. And, as just about every other device they've made has shown, the odds are not that bad that their's will dominate.
 
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oghowie said:
It just has to get cheaper. Many people pay less than $200 for their phone every 2 years. I would have kept mine if it was $250 or lower.
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It does not matter, still generate more revenue than xbox or than Surface.
If it is not selling with price it is right now, where is revenue come from?
 
oghowie said:
It just has to get cheaper. Many people pay less than $200 for their phone every 2 years. I would have kept mine if it was $250 or lower.
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It's a different value proposition. First, the phone is worth $650 or more. People paying $200 forget that they are paying for the rest of the cost through their plan, one way or another. Second, the Apple Watch is a watch, first and foremost, and a fashion accessory for many. It's something you'll likely keep longer than a phone, or sell if you upgrade. A newer Fitbit is $150-250 and doesn't do several of the things that the Apple Watch does.

But each buyer has their own criteria. And some of the value of the Apple Watch won't be apparent until OS 2.0 and beyond.

oghowie said:
You can't reply from the watch though right? I'd even think about the Moto 360 if you could get notifications and reply to messages. That thing is only $150 right now. lol
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Does that mean you'll swap your iPhone for an Android as well? I think you have to if you want that kind of watch to be fully functional. The choice of phone and smartwatch are tightly linked.
 
Apple Watch sales expected to drop this year despite wider availability and new models
9to5mac.com
While this year marks the first time Apple Watch has been on the market for a full 12 months, one analyst believes year-over-year sales will be down and not higher. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of KGI Securities (via Business Insider) has issued a report that says new Apple Watch shipments have decreased by 15-25% which affects the firm’s annual sales prediction.

The report notes that KGI cites four reasons for relatively limited interest in Apple Watch: no clear killer app, poor battery life, dependence on iPhone, and the experience multi-touch offers on a wearable.

Aside from the fashion aspect, you could argue that health and fitness tracking is the...
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wow, some excellent necromancy/trolling exhibited. mods, pls lock.
 
Consumers in general love their Apple Watches. Apple has a low return rate and consumer satisfaction remains at the top. Apple is the number 2 watch manufacturer by revenue. That's of ALL watches, smart or otherwise.

The thing is, smart watches are not a device like a smartphone; that nearly everybody owns. The market is smaller. We're used to seeing explosive and extraordinary sales of iPhones; but that doesn't make the Apple Watch a 'flop'. By what metric is it a flop? It outsells other smart watches, people who own them like them according to J.D. Power, Consumer Reports, et al. I'd say it's a good launch for Apple.

I think the best reviews are summed up thusly: "You still don't need one". The Apple Watch is a luxury item, just like watches have always been. If someone will spend thousands of dollars for a watch that looks nice, it's no so far fetched that people are going to want an Apple Watch as well. IMHO, the best thing Apple did was make the Apple Watch look as much like a fine watch as a gadget can look. Unlike the competition, it's not a piece of plastic. So it's going to continue to dig into that market.
 
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I don't really get the need to sell xx millions or else it is a flop. Is 10mm the magic number to not be a flop? Is the Apple TV a flop or Beats headphones? Maybe they are all flops because they will never sell as many as an iPhone.

What is the measurement of a flop? Not all products will sell more than 10-20mm per year. Is Apple making money on the product? If so, it really isn't a flop. Everything is compared to the iPhone. In that case, maybe the MacBook Pro 15" Retina fully load is a flop?

They estimated about 10-12mm sold in the first 12 months and another 6-8 until 12/31. Add in thousands and thousands of bands and accessories with massive margins might say the Apple Watch has been a hit for a 18 month product. Definitely outsold the iPhone in the same timeframe. js
 
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