If physical media is to survive, than the studios are going to have to step it up much more than a notch above what we get from our OTA, cable and dish HD experiences. 4K provides a big contrast with what the consumer has ever seen. All indications are that the home media manufacturers are priming the pump for 4K now that people are kind of over 1080p and 3D had been met with a collective "meh."
I've mentioned it before, but the problem I have with 4K as savior is easily summed up here.
Most would agree, especially in the context of the Mac, that one of the problems for Blu-Ray is that DVD is
good enough, that streaming from Netflix is
good enough. If that's the main problem, I don't see 4K faring any better.
Much like in music, we've got the masses consuming low quality "good enough" media and then a small selection of wonks insisting on high quality. Blu-Ray is successful, at 1/3 of the disc market, but we're all talking about iTunes and Netflix here and especially in Apple's world view where "good enough" seems to be on the company masthead. A new standard requiring new equipment purchases, new display purchases, new TV purchases, and some form of delivery (or multiple forms including a future optical format), well, I don't see it exactly burning up the market and appealing to the "good enough" crowd any more than what's already on the market with equipment they already own or can buy cheaply.
I'm a technology wonk, and I have a 2560x1600 30" display, and I can't even watch a Blu-Ray on it (in OSX, at least). I'll keep an open mind for 4K when/if I see it, and the new TV I'll have to buy, and the new media format(s) that will be required to enjoy it.
But let's take a stroll down memory lane for the adoption of HD. I saw it in a lab at Bellcore in 1990. The first sets showed up, outrageously priced, somewhere around 1998-1999. Using a VGA display and an OTA antenna, I pulled in the very limited network programming around 1999-2000, back when only a few hours of HD programming were available per week. I think I watched the 2000 Super Bowl over the air. The destruction of the WTC during the 9/11 attacks wrecked OTA HD viewing in NYC as all the HD antennae were on the towers. My cable co. didn't start providing any HD programming for years after that, and only a handfull of channels at first. A prepackaged HD format didn't start percolating until 2004-2005 and then the Blu-Ray vs. HD-DVD war. Unless you want to count D-VHS, which I suppose you could.
So let's start the clock for 4K in that "lab" phase now, we may see something that doesn't cost as much as a small car by 2020. And given the bitrates of 1080p Blu-Ray can reach 50-60 megabits, let's assume 4x that and allow for a more efficient codec than H.264 in the future and make it only 2x, and we probably are looking at another physical format beyond Blu-Ray. As far as OTA delivery, the bandwidth already can't handle 1080p so what do we do, another repartitioning of space, a new standard past ATSC, a new transmission codec, more dealing with the FCC for spectrum? Good luck.