Yes... It's the same now as it was back in the nineties.
LOL, you just said it now, but on that die part, I never mentioned it either.
Until HTML 5 is adopted across the board(Microsoft being key) and FireFox switches to H.264 like
Adobe and the rest of the bunch, no, HTML
5 will not kill Flash's video relevance any time soon, if ever. Not when Microsoft has its own video format, which it has so nicely integrated into Silverlite. Not when the entertainment industry wants more control over their content, something an open system really doesn't allow.
Also, when did IE and Flash not have serious competition? When Flash was Macromedia early on, I heard SVG will push it out! Then Go Live comes along and I hear that it will replace Flash! I've personally wanted IE to die, but those pesky rabbits over at Microsoft go and release a new OS and market it.
I didn't miss the point. First off, that's you reading way beyond anything I wrote and you inserting your own assumption. I also know that both companies are adjusting and have been. Something you're unwilling to really give them credit for, since your responses have been about they should do this, they'll need to do this, etc. Why on your part you'd assume they're not taking measures to adjust to the changing times, and then offer advice is somewhat arrogant, as if you know best.
The only predicament I see, is that HTML 5 brings the same "problems" that HTML 4 has, it doesn't bring on a resolve as no one can agree on which standards to support, it only adds to the confusion and won't smooth out for years. Just like AJAX HTML 4, it's still a limited-hack with the same cross-browser compatibility issues when compared to a plug-in like Flash.
And Kings dictating... What? OK, push Microsoft aside, and as yourself, how is an optional plug-in dictating how things work? It's not. If you want dictation, look at Steve Jobs and his recent HISSY-FIT. The guy throws a "strategic" fit and Mac/HTML 5 zealots crawl out of the wood works to convey his message of FUD as if it's fact. As if they were deputized by Jobs to go forth and spread his agenda that a CLOSED off system is good.
This is what I get for visiting sites like SlashDot and so on, which stated they were abandoning Safari all together.
Potential is one thing, but currently HTML 5 is still a draft, so even it's not yet;
http://www.w3.org/QA/2009/05/_watching_the_google_io.html
You see potential, I see a step back. BTW, have you tried HTML 5 apps on your closed off device? I crashed my Touch more than once trying some of these HTML 5 examples. :]
Here, read this guy's blog, your views on Adobe/Flash can use a fresh perspective;
http://blogs.adobe.com/jnack/2010/02/adobe_isnt_in_the_flash_business.html