Survey Sees Pent-Up iPad Demand, Some Cannibalization of Other Apple Products

[charlituna]

A bit stunned at the proportion of people wanting the $829 model. You could buy a very decent laptop at that price with a real OS.

those with an imac at home might not feel they need a REAL computer for the occasional out of town trip, the commute to work etc. All they need is something for email, watching a movie or the last ep of Lost etc. video takes up a lot of space.

not everyone is a computer geek who feels that it's a toy/piece of junk if you can't run World of Warcraft and CS4 on it.

 

[Hattig]

The high end models are a better deal than the midrange models, so the demand curve makes sense.

The iPhone halo has certainly had an effect here too.

I'm sure that in person the device will sell itself. Right now I think I would want to wait a couple of months to see what software appears, or wait for the v.2 device.

It's certainly going to be the yardstick by which tablet/slate devices are measured, in terms of usability. Whether or not there is a massive slate demand, beyond the initial market, remains to be seen. I'm sure there is a business there though.

 

[*LTD*]

iPod phenomenon, part II.

(2001) Why would anyone want an iPod? The Nomad has more storage . . .

 

[MMX]

those with an imac at home might not feel they need a REAL computer for the occasional out of town trip, the commute to work etc. All they need is something for email, watching a movie or the last ep of Lost etc. video takes up a lot of space.

not everyone is a computer geek who feels that it's a toy/piece of junk if you can't run World of Warcraft and CS4 on it.

Diablo III would be great though

 

[charlituna]

The potential of the iPad platform is insane. It was apparent from the first minute it was demo'd by Jobs.

some of the Apple stores are doing Apps workshops. there's one I saw doing one on Medical Apps for the iphone, which of course will becomes 'for the ipad' when it is released. Seems there's quite a few apps (reference mostly) out there.

there's also a number of professional photo and film apps and so on.

that's where the potential is likely to surprise folks.

 

[*LTD*]

http://apple.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=22940&cid=2467504

by LoudMusic (199347) on Tuesday October 23 2001, @01:52PM (#2467504)
Raise your hand if you have iTunes ...

Raise your hand if you have a FireWire port ...

Raise your hand if you have both ...

Raise your hand if you have $400 to spend on a cute Apple device ...

There is Apple's market. Pretty slim, eh? I don't see many sales in the future of iPod.

~LoudMusic

 

[Chupa Chupa]

A bit stunned at the proportion of people wanting the $829 model. You could buy a very decent laptop at that price with a real OS.

This sort of argument was batted around when the iPod mini came out -- the full sized iPod had more capacity for the $. Of course the argument failed as consumers valued the smaller footprint and more durable flash RAM to the iPod's larger, but more vulnerable, HDs.

People buying the top of the line model don't want a laptop, just an ultra lightweight device that will handle basic computing tasks. The top end iPad is the anti-laptop.

 

[killmoms]

I know for a fact I'm planning to buy an iPad instead of a MacBook.

That said, I am planning on buying an iMac to replace my current aging MacBook Pro as my primary machine.

 

[OllyW]

This sort of argument was batted around when the iPod mini came out -- the full sized iPod had more capacity for the $. Of course the argument failed as consumers valued the smaller footprint and more durable flash RAM to the iPod's larger, but more vulnerable, HDs.

The iPod mini had a hard drive.

 

[Chupa Chupa]

Interestingly, the most popular versions are the cheapest and most expensive.

Makes perfect sense really. The entry model is perfect for those that want to supplement their laptop and/or are price conscience. The top end model suits those that want a portable computing device, just not a laptop. In the middle is a mix of these two buyer who are either justifying an extra $100 or compromising b/c they can't justify spending an extra $100.

 

[charlituna]

Rule of Thumb. Never buy a new model of anything. Newbies are guinea pigs.

Some of us are willing to take one for the team and be the testers and help make the improvements.

And what about Flash?

What about it? It's not multi touch friendly plus Adobe has done nada to deal with multiple issues in the Mac OS version for the years. It's a resource hog on all but the most souped up systems. If it was on a mobile device like the Iphone/ipod/ipad series it would kill battery life.

And many of the services that use Flash are embracing a move away from it. Youtube has an html5 beta going, hulu is talking about a flashfree app for the ipad, facebook did an app etc.

The only folks demanding Flash on the iPad are again the technogeeks that aren't going to buy an iPad anyway cause it's not a full laptop

 

[twoodcc]

This is a good sign for the ipad. I really think it'll do well, just might take awhile

 

[guzhogi]

My friends, the Great Experiment... the iPad, ready for trial runs.

"Now why would anyone want that bucket of bolts?"

"An Apple is an Apple"

I still can't figure out why anyone wouldn't want that piece of crap.

Well, some people want something simple they can listen to music, watch movies & read books on. Not everyone wants/needs a full fledged computer all the time.

 

[Chupa Chupa]

The iPod mini had a hard drive.

I stand corrected.

 

[Eye4Desyn]

iPad has the potential to be bigger than the iPhone. People will be surprised when they hold one. It does about 95% of what normal people use their computers for. It does about 50% or less of what us geeks use our computers for. Geeks are what--five percent of the population at best? I'm not going to open up Photoshop, Illustrstor, Indesign, and Dreamweaver on the iPad. It's for bringing to class, using in the livingroom, it's for my wife. I'll use my MBP for my real work. It's not like CS4/5 would run on iPad even if it did have full OSX.

As for type, I'm still deciding between 32gb WIFI and 32gb 3g. I don't want to wait another month for 3g.

+1, I'm in the same boat with you. Difference being that it'll be 3G certainly for my household but unsure about 32GB or 64GB.

 

[justinfreid]

Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU iPhone OS 3_1_2 like Mac OS X; en-us) AppleWebKit/528.18 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/4.0 Mobile/7D11 Safari/528.16)

I want a big iPhone to sit on the coffee table: builtin storage will be used only for apps, and 3G does nothing for me. I understand the strong desire for the lowend model.

 

[miles01110]

Not exactly surprising. Cannibalization will happen when you introduce a product halfway between two existing products that gives you less functionality than either.

 

[*LTD*]

240,000,000 units sold by 2020.

 

[Hattig]

240,000,000 units sold by 2020.

And in addition the actual term for a slate computer will be "iPad", just like "iPod" became the term for a portable music player. It'll be the default product to buy when someone says "get me one of those ipad things".

 

[liven2]

100% Agree!!

Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU iPhone OS 3_1_2 like Mac OS X; en-us) AppleWebKit/528.18 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/4.0 Mobile/7D11 Safari/528.16)

I want a big iPhone to sit on the coffee table: builtin storage will be used only for apps, and 3G does nothing for me. I understand the strong desire for the lowend model.

I have to say I totally agree with you. My wife saw this thing and totally fell in love with it. She does not care for a laptop because the track pad can be frustrating for her. She saw this and just got it! AS it clicked for her and said it gives her everything that she needs: email, web surfing, Contact, books, Calendars in a very natural and easy to use interface.

From my Techie perspective once you include the value Apps will add to this thing, it is almost unlimited in what it can and could do. I do wish Multitasking would be an option but that may be added in 4.0. Folks, this thing will be huge, give it 12 months and see!... For example: people like my wife and others will be big buyers of this type of product.

 

[kdarling]

According to the survey, 13% of respondents are either somewhat or very likely to purchase an iPad, compared to only 9% in a similar survey conducted prior to the launch of the original iPhone.

My first thought was, how did they do with their original survey results? Not so good, it turns out. Let's say that they only talked to USA adults, which is 240 million.

According to their old survey, 9% were somewhat or very likely to purchase the original iPhone, or 21 million. In fact, a little over 5 million (2%) did.

Extrapolating to their current survey, that would indicate an actual rate would be around 3% for the iPad.

 

[sjo]

According to the survey, 13% of respondents are either somewhat or very likely to purchase an iPad, compared to only 9% in a similar survey conducted prior to the launch of the original iPhone.

While the survey results suggest possible strong early adoption of the iPad and upside compared to previously-estimated customer purchasing plans, RBC continues to predict a base case of five million iPads sold for calendar year 2010, adding $2.4 billion in revenue and an additional $0.33 per share of earnings to Apple's bottom line.

Assuming this is US based study wouldn't 13% translate into like 35m devices sold? Probably at least the same amount outside the US, so if the analysts believes the study he would comfortably predict sales of 70m devices.

RBC thinks the results of the survey they have conducted are pretty crappy?

 

[str1f3]

iPad has the potential to be bigger than the iPhone. People will be surprised when they hold one. It does about 95% of what normal people use their computers for. It does about 50% or less of what us geeks use our computers for.

Sorry but you are lying to yourself. What doesn't it do that the average customer may need:

-Play Flash. I hate Flash and don't care for it but the average consumer you mention won't like not being able to play simple games, view certain websites and watch videos.

-You cannot hook up you Flip camera or any camcorder

-You cannot sync your iPhone/iPod to it which means you still need a real computer

-They cannot backup their files with something as easy to use as Time Machine. You can't even hook up an external hard drive because it has one proprietary port and Apple is seemingly cashing in on it with expensive cables that are at least 5x the price.

-It doesn't have Office. The average person may not use most of the features but compatibility has always been it's biggest strength.

You people are crazy if you think it will sell as well or better than the iPhone because of some report where 3,200 were asked a question of interest. Common sense would tell you that a phone is more important than, what is essentially, a luxury device since it essentially replaces nothing.

The only area where they would dominate are in nursing homes where the elderly can play with their Wii and they barely know what a computer is.

 

[diabolic]

Extrapolating to their current survey, that would indicate an actual rate would be around 3% for the iPad.

And if only 3% did buy one, that would surely be considered a huge success for a computer. I don't think they're necessarily expecting mobile phone type numbers for these.

Sorry but you are lying to yourself. What doesn't it do that the average customer may need:

-Play Flash. I hate Flash and don't care for it but the average consumer you mention won't like not being able to play simple games, view certain websites and watch videos.

Flash, in it's current implementation isn't touchscreen friendly anyway. Not having a mouse cursor to mouse-over things throws a wrench in the way a lot of current Flash sites work. Less and less people will care about Flash, and popular sites are already figuring out how they will serve their content to iPad users.

 

[GeekLawyer]

And in addition the actual term for a slate computer will be "iPad", just like "iPod" became the term for a portable music player. It'll be the default product to buy when someone says "get me one of those ipad things".

Yep. I think you're right on the money. I wonder what "padcasting" will look like by then.