I'm a real watch collector and high end watches aficionado, from Panerais to the Hublots of Jean Claude Biver to vintage Rolex and Pateks, above all. I'm saying this because you need to know very well this market to understand its behavior, so please
those of you who are not really interested in watches and inside this world don't think this is a standard market and that you can throw whatever comes to your mind and be right comparing it to cars or something.This is a very special market if not one of the most special markets you can find, and very elitist if you want to go for the high end.
That being said, IMO, the iWatch will be a very serious threat to low, low-mid brands, particularly to sport watches under 1000-1500USD, even 2000USD, or what is the same, all the brands under Omega of the swatch group. I would like it to have a base price of 600-1200USD. I wouldn't like it to cost 250-300USD just because I don't think you can create a good looking piece to my eyes for that kind of money. If it costs 250-300USD I would prefer it to be a bracelet or band of some kind so I can wear both a watch and the iwatch, although actually I would prefer this anyway.
BUT, this will never be a threat to high end watches or haute horlogerie, not just because it won't be mechanical, but because high end watches are all about their aesthetics, their charisma, their quality, but also about
their differentiation, how do they feel. You can't make a 200 watch, improve it a lot and decorate it and sell it for 10000USD, it doesn't work like that, it's not about precious metals, there are a lot of watches over 10000USD made of ceramic, steel, titanium... even most sport Rolexes, although mostly cheaper than that but very famous (submariner, daytona...) are made of steel at least in 2 or 3 versions, that's why swatch needs several brands to sell to several price sensitive targets. It needs its own personality and charm, and apple, because it's mainstream, can't create that with its own brand at least. They would need to create a new brand, swiss based if possible, and make an entirely different watch if they want to go high end. Why? Not because its profits, but because its appeal, to give prestige to their low end iwatches.
And by the way, nowadays high end sport watches tend to be quite big and bulky, like 44mm diameter, so it would be tremendously disappointing if it's a slim female-vintage like watch like some of you are pointing. Really, most of you have no clue at all about watches. You can check 1950 Luminor case Panerais, Hublot Big Bangs... that is the correct direction. Get informed:
http://watchanish.tumblr.com
http://thewatchspotter.tumblr.com