If they win out - and with the CFP committee establishing doubt in FSU's resume this week - it wouldn't be surprising to see them as a top 2 team.
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The 2014-2015 NCAA Football Season Thread
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If they win out - and with the CFP committee establishing doubt in FSU's resume this week - it wouldn't be surprising to see them as a top 2 team.
I just looked at the playoff committee's web site, which I hadn't seen before. I was wondering whether the order of the top four teams would determine who plays who in the Rose and Sugar Bowl semifinal games, but all it says is that the committee will decide which teams will play in which games, and that they will also determine the match-ups in the Cotton, Fiesta, Peach, and Orange Bowls. I've been assuming that #1 would play #2 in the Rose Bowl, #3 would play #4 in the Sugar Bowl, and the two winners would play in the National Championship. That may be true, but I couldn't find it on the web site.
Yes, but the difference between 1, 2, 3, and 4 are based on opinion (most of these teams don't play each other), so in essense 1, 3, 4, 2 and 1, 2, 3, 4 are essentially identical.
Likely true. In fact, the top six or even eight teams will probably be pretty close to one another. I thought it was interesting that the committee's web site didn't say anything about any team playing any other team by virtue of finishing rank.
So where do y'all think Bama and MSU will end up on Tuesday's ranking after tonight's win by the Tide? Will the committee put both SEC West teams in the top four? Not that it matters a whole lot - it's the final one that'll count.
Once again, Blake Sims showed that he can convert third downs with his feet, as he did on the game-tying drive against LSU last week. Dak Prescott was off his game most of the time - the three picks really cost MSU. I also think that Yeldon played well, especially considering that he wasn't sure to play until game time.
Hopefully, Alabama will get by Western Carolina next week and then it's the Iron Bowl to try to get some payback for the kick six last year.
RTR!
Once again, Blake Sims showed that he can convert third downs with his feet, as he did on the game-tying drive against LSU last week. Dak Prescott was off his game most of the time - the three picks really cost MSU. I also think that Yeldon played well, especially considering that he wasn't sure to play until game time.
Hopefully, Alabama will get by Western Carolina next week and then it's the Iron Bowl to try to get some payback for the kick six last year.
RTR!
Wow. Auburn. Just...wow. If we are ranked better than 20 after this week, I will be shocked.
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Yeeeaaaahhhh...I don't think you have anything to worry about in the Iron Bowl. You could not show up and still win.
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Hopefully, Alabama will get by Western Carolina next week and then it's the Iron Bowl to try to get some payback for the kick six last year.
RTR!
Yeeeaaaahhhh...I don't think you have anything to worry about in the Iron Bowl. You could not show up and still win.
Another tough win. It makes the game a lot more interesting but I can never feel comfortable watching this Alabama team. Mississippi St. had an opportunity to make a comeback but there was some terrible play calling and clock management. Coming off two tough SEC games, I hope Alabama doesn't relax and look past Western Carolina. I'm looking at that game and all I see is a trap game.
So where do y'all think Bama and MSU will end up on Tuesday's ranking after tonight's win by the Tide? Will the committee put both SEC West teams in the top four? Not that it matters a whole lot - it's the final one that'll count.
Once again, Blake Sims showed that he can convert third downs with his feet, as he did on the game-tying drive against LSU last week. Dak Prescott was off his game most of the time - the three picks really cost MSU. I also think that Yeldon played well, especially considering that he wasn't sure to play until game time.
Hopefully, Alabama will get by Western Carolina next week and then it's the Iron Bowl to try to get some payback for the kick six last year.
RTR!
With Oregon on bye, FSU squeaking out another win, TCU and Bama winning, I'll slot the Top 4 as:
(1) FSU
(2) Oregon
(3) Bama
(4) TCU
It's a big IF and it's very early, but as ASU is losing 14-3 right now, I'll assume they lose. Miss. State ends up either 5 or at 7 behind (5) Baylor and (6) OSU. If ASU comes back and wins on the road convincingly, that's another team I think that stays in front of Miss. State. So at best 5, at worst 8. I don't think they fall behind - yet - the next set of teams (Michigan State, UCLA, Arizona), but I wouldn't be shocked if they lose again.
As of tomorrow, Miss. State is going to be 0-1 against Top 10 teams and their quality wins are looking weaker and weaker as overrated SEC teams (LSU, TA&M) lost games they should've won and Auburn is falling apart. I don't buy into the 3-1 "Top 10" (at the time) record, I see it as 0-1.
I can buy FSU as #1 (still undefeated) and Oregon as #2. And Bama definitely deserves to move into the top four. But it's hard to justify moving former #1 MSU to #5 based on their loss yesterday, unless the committee is hell bent on keeping two SEC teams from being in from now on.
If Miss. St doesn't drop to 5 on Tueday, they will eventually. A one loss Big 12 champ in Baylor/TCU is going to get that spot over a 2nd place in their division SEC team. If they really value conference championships as much as they say they do.
And now that I think about it, with Oregon on a bye, I wouldn't be surprised if Bama jumps them, too, based on perception. CFB voters are very fickle with 'what have you done for me lately' influencing their rankings. We shall see.
Agreed. The SEC doesn't deserve two CFB spots. Mississippi State's wins are getting worse as the season rolls on, and they aren't set to make the SEC final.
I knew Alabama was going to crack the top 4 but I really thought Florida St. would retake the no. 1 spot just off the fact that they were at number one before and they're still undefeated. I don't get how Mississippi St. only drops to 4.
EDIT: That's a WEAK explanation as to why Mississippi St. dropped to 4....smh
EDIT: That's a WEAK explanation as to why Mississippi St. dropped to 4....smh
I'm also shocked that Bama moved into the top spot - I thought that they'd be #3, with Oregon and FSU in the top two. But FSU's falling to #3 is probably a signal from the committee that they don't think much of the Seminoles' come-from-behind wins and overall strength of schedule. If either Boston College or Florida pulls an upset, they're out (unlikely, I know). Mississippi State at #4 isn't that much of a surprise, though they will likely move out unless Alabama melts down.
As a Tide fan, I'm hoping that their new status won't distract them. The Iron Bowl is going to be a tough game, regardless of Auburn's less than stellar play of late.
If there is one thing you can count on, it's that Saban will know how to prepare for Auburn - no way in hell he lets what happened last year, happen again this year. If Auburn does win, it won't be because Alabama was not prepared (I'll be shocked if it did). It also helps that the game will be played in Tuscaloosa.
The path is clear for Alabama and things seem to be on their side especially the way Auburn is playing. Win and they're in.
The committee is a huge joke....and not the "haha" kind....
-Miss St. has the worst non-con schedule of all the top 7 and they play the two worst SEC East teams. Half their schedule is against awful competition (granted, half of Baylor's is pretty bad but they have better OOC teams surprisingly enough and I think Tech and Kansas are on par with Kentucky and Vanderbilt). They have 1 top-25 win at this point as all the reasons they jumped to #1 are pretty much gone.
-Injuries seem to matter with respect to Oregon and Ohio St but not Baylor? Baylor has lost half its starting OL, had their top 5 WR's out for the better part of the first half of the season and Petty got hurt early and was working back from the injury until very recently.
-Game Control is such a nebulous, garbage statistic that only serves as a cop out when the facts don't fit the committee's biases.
-Alabama gets the #1 spot because they beat MSU and have top offensive, defensive and special teams units. Baylor is nationally ranked #1 in total offense, #14 in total defense (I don't know how to even rank special teams, but they aren't bad) - yet they get no mention?
And last but not least:
BAYLOR BEAT TCU.
And they have a better margin of victory against 5 common opponents (which included the game they played against each other).
Baylor and TCU are 1/2 in literally every statistical category in the Big 12 - and by that I mean Baylor is #1 and TCU is #2 in most everything.
At the end of the day, I really hope Florida St loses because they just don't look like one of the best teams in the country and none of the statistics make their case very well. In my mind, the best top 4 would be:
(1) Alabama
(2) Oregon
(3) Baylor
(4) Ohio St.
With TCU, Miss St. and Florida St. on the outside looking in (and in that order).
-Miss St. has the worst non-con schedule of all the top 7 and they play the two worst SEC East teams. Half their schedule is against awful competition (granted, half of Baylor's is pretty bad but they have better OOC teams surprisingly enough and I think Tech and Kansas are on par with Kentucky and Vanderbilt). They have 1 top-25 win at this point as all the reasons they jumped to #1 are pretty much gone.
-Injuries seem to matter with respect to Oregon and Ohio St but not Baylor? Baylor has lost half its starting OL, had their top 5 WR's out for the better part of the first half of the season and Petty got hurt early and was working back from the injury until very recently.
-Game Control is such a nebulous, garbage statistic that only serves as a cop out when the facts don't fit the committee's biases.
-Alabama gets the #1 spot because they beat MSU and have top offensive, defensive and special teams units. Baylor is nationally ranked #1 in total offense, #14 in total defense (I don't know how to even rank special teams, but they aren't bad) - yet they get no mention?
And last but not least:
BAYLOR BEAT TCU.
And they have a better margin of victory against 5 common opponents (which included the game they played against each other).
Baylor and TCU are 1/2 in literally every statistical category in the Big 12 - and by that I mean Baylor is #1 and TCU is #2 in most everything.
At the end of the day, I really hope Florida St loses because they just don't look like one of the best teams in the country and none of the statistics make their case very well. In my mind, the best top 4 would be:
(1) Alabama
(2) Oregon
(3) Baylor
(4) Ohio St.
With TCU, Miss St. and Florida St. on the outside looking in (and in that order).
Well, one thing that was easy to predict with a four-team playoff - supporters of teams 5, 6, 7, and so on wouldn't be happy. Truth is, any system that's based on human opinion is going to be imperfect, whether it's by committee or polls. And the computer BCS ranking wasn't perfect, either, since the factors used were also subject to opinion.
Personally, I'd like to see an eight-team playoff, though.
Yes and one that takes out as much of the subjectivity as possible.
5 power conference champions, 3 wild cards/at-large bids.
Non-conference schedules don't matter because if you win your conference you are in. Allows teams to schedule bigger, better non-con matchups.
Better for everyone all around.
And of course 5, 6, and 7 would have a beef. I just wish they were consistent with the facts/data available. By any statistic/metric Baylor is a top 4 team at this point. Certainly so over MSU, tOSU and TCU.
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Then you REALLY see who the best team is.
The big argument against this is "What if a 7-5 division champ beats a 11-1 division champ and wins their conference? One bad game ruins the playoff because an undeserving 7-5 team gets in."
A couple of points against that -
(1) One bad game can already ruin a team's season. Look at Baylor with WVU. Despite all the evidence to the contrary, they get blasted for losing this game. It could very well keep one of the top 4 teams in the country out because they had a bad game (not to mention the atrocity that was the officiating).
(2) With the 8-team playoff, 3 wild cards would be chosen so that 11-1 team (11-2 after conference champ game loss) could definitely still get in if it was deserving. This scenario won't happen enough to where we leave out multiple teams that were the best in conference the whole year, but just didn't get it done in the champ game.
(3) No one has a problem when the NFL crowns a 9-7 Super Bowl winner. If that 7-5 team goes on to beat people, who are we to say they weren't the better team that year. Lord knows it would be more accurate than what we have now.
I believe we will eventually have an expanded playoff. I believe the thinking was if they did do a four-team playoff, the four best teams would be clear and would sort of clear up any doubt with the old BCS system. Obviously this didn't work out that way as we have the Ohio St's, Baylor and TCU teams which can make their case as why they should be in the playoffs. While we can still argue about the 4-team system, I truly believe it's a good step and I hope the committee does review at the end of the season. While an eight-team playoff would remove all doubts, I would even take a 6-team playoff where top 2 teams get a buy and 3-6 play it out.
Next weekend should be interesting: three SEC teams in potential spoiler roles - Ole Miss, Florida, and Auburn. I'd say Auburn has the best chance. Except for the 2012 Iron Bowl, which Alabama could have won with third strings, they're tough games. Bama will hopefully be more motivated than yesterday, but the injuries have been piling up. I expect that Cooper and Yeldon will both play, but whether they'll be anywhere near 100% is open to question.
Honestly, they're number 5 at this point and I would put them over Mississippi State, honestly. They're blowing teams out.
I believe the CFP should be an 8 team playoff. Does number 5 deserve a shot at the National Championship? Yes, absolutely. Does number 9? Meh, not really.