The Gold Watch Problem - My Thoughs on wild predicitions.

[JayLenochiniMac]

Why does Apple need a 3x mark-up like the jewelry industry? I'm sure Apple would love to upsell people away from the Sport watch. Will be tough to do if the SS watch is so much more expensive. And if the gold watch is Rolex territory then that will basically suck all the oxygen out of the room. The media won't be talking about features they'll be obsessing over the price of the gold watch to the point where people who haven't been following might think the gold watch is the only watch Apple is selling.

They're already doing a 3x markup for the iPhone. The component costs for the iPhone runs around $200 and they're selling them at $649 minimum if you buy outright.

Anyone who thinks Apple will give away $1200 worth of gold at cost is out of their mind.

 

[Rogifan]

They're already doing a 3x markup for the iPhone. The component costs for the iPhone runs around $200 and they're selling them at $649 minimum if you buy outright.

Anyone who thinks Apple will give away $1200 worth of gold at cost is out of their mind.

I don't think that at all. I guess if iPhone like margins equate to a 3x mark-up then that's what I would expect. But $10K is a lot more than iPhone margins.

 

[Small White Car]

Guys.

People only buy $10,000+ watches to prove that they can.

Why does someone buy a $30k Rolex over a $10k Rolex? To show that they're your boss' boss, of course. At that level it's not about what's in the watch, it's about making sure certain people can't buy it.

If the gold Apple Watch doesn't cost $10k then the people in those markets won't buy it. And that's the entire point of the thing in the first place; to appeal to those people.

There is absolutely no point to a $3,000 gold Apple Watch. None. At that point they should just make it gold colored and sell it for $1,000.

A $1k Apple Watch makes sense. A $10k Apple Watch makes sense. Anything in between is just a waste of time.

 

[Piggie]

I would love the Edition to be $999 at least with a rubber strap.

It could be done. Apple could do it.
It would make buyers go crazy for it, and they would sell millions.

With correct and clever engineering of the case it could be done, and it would send shock thru the industry.

No one else would be able to do it.

I don't think it will be this price, but oh how I love it, if it was.

And yes, I do think it would be possible. difficult, but possible,

 

[JayLenochiniMac]

I don't think that at all. I guess if iPhone like margins equate to a 3x mark-up then that's what I would expect. But $10K is a lot more than iPhone margins.

True, but most members here are predicting a $4,999 starting price for the Edition models, in line with Gruber's original prediction. Gruber upped that to $10K but not all of us agree with that and we also think he's wrong regarding the Milanese Loop being cheaper than the leather bands and Apple charging more for the Space Gray aluminum model, which is inconsistent with their practice of charging the same price for the Space Gray, Silver and Gold iPhones.

Unless Gruber has additional inside information that he's not letting out, his predictions may or may not become true.

 

[Julien]

Piggie, this is your own work:

Image

....

Wait a minute. You mean this person is now admitting the Watch will contain a weighty quantity of gold (or am I misreading) after spending many months and devoting countless threads debating that the amount of gold would be small and insignificant? Just look at the John Gruber's thoughts on Apple Watch thread starting at post #84.

https://forums.macrumors.com/threads/1780537/

They even wrongly reporting me as trolling (so they are [the only person] on my ignore list and I don't see posts except when quoted) for simply quoiting them and pointing out they were incorrect in saying the Edition would contain only a trivial amount gold (they even said $100 worth of gold maximum) while I was (and still do) saying the Watch would contain about an ounce of Au.

So now not only do they owe me an apology for wrongly reporting me as a troll, they now owe me a 'looks like you were right' too.

 

[cleirac]

Guys.

People only buy $10,000+ watches to prove that they can.

Why does someone buy a $30k Rolex over a $10k Rolex? To show that they're your boss' boss, of course. At that level it's not about what's in the watch, it's about making sure certain people can't buy it.

If the gold Apple Watch doesn't cost $10k then the people in those markets won't buy it. And that's the entire point of the thing in the first place; to appeal to those people.

There is absolutely no point to a $3,000 gold Apple Watch. None. At that point they should just make it gold colored and sell it for $1,000.

A $1k Apple Watch makes sense. A $10k Apple Watch makes sense. Anything in between is just a waste of time.

I really need to say this, people who keep stirring the pot that Apple should sell Apple Watch Edition for less than $2k (even if they believe it costs more than $1k to make it) are more delusional than JG. His estimates basing it on or vs. current market of the most luxurious watches in the world is more reasonable. More if upgradeable but not too much or still lower enough than most luxurious expensive timeless pieces.

With the millions Apple has to spend now paying or investing to the supermodels / fashionistas etc, rents in some luxury jewelry stores, more security costs in securing / reconfiguring every Apple Stores in the world, Apple is not going to sell AWE just to break even. Or considering all the hassles and risks with this new product. The real market for this will pay for it at any price. The higher or more exclusivity for them, the better.

They hired Angela and co. to even elevate Apple's premium status so they can charge Burburry premium or more on this.

Having said that, Apple Watch Edition will cost between $5k-$10k or maybe more. I will buy wihout batting an eyelash if it costs less than $5k.

 

[ButteryScrollin]

some people (OP included) are going to lose their **** when the real prices are announced. $999? c'mon son.

 

[cleirac]

some people (OP included) are going to lose their **** when the real prices are announced. $999? c'mon son.

OP's setting up lot of people for massive disappointments ... or conditioning some people to make some sort of anarchy vs. Apple. jk

 

[DakotaGuy]

Well, that seems to be, for now Apple's Attitude.

Matt silver, or Shiny Silver
Coloured Rubber, Leather or Silver metal bands.

If you like gold, but don't have thousands to spend on a watch, which will be 95% of all customers.

Then you can't have a gold look, tough luck.

I find that odd.

If they made a "fake" gold watch wouldn't that completely destroy the value of the real gold watch? Why would anyone even buy the real gold watch if they make one for thousands less that looks the same?

Many believe that a decent percentage of Apple customers are wealthy so I don't see the real gold watch out of their price range. The real issue is if they want to invest that kind of money into a product that will quickly become obsolete.

If they make a fake gold one it pretty much ruins the whole idea of making a real one. If you can't afford the gold one then you just have to settle for aluminum or stainless. There is a reason why certain people have to drive a Ford Focus and others can drive a Mercedes Benz. It's just the way the world works.

By the way, I thought that you didn't even want one of these watches?

 

[Julien]

...By the way, I thought that you didn't even want one of these watches?

You have to own an iPhone before you even think about buying an Watch.

 

[Piggie]

If they made a "fake" gold watch wouldn't that completely destroy the value of the real gold watch? Why would anyone even buy the real gold watch if they make one for thousands less that looks the same?

Many believe that a decent percentage of Apple customers are wealthy so I don't see the real gold watch out of their price range. The real issue is if they want to invest that kind of money into a product that will quickly become obsolete.

If they make a fake gold one it pretty much ruins the whole idea of making a real one. If you can't afford the gold one then you just have to settle for aluminum or stainless. There is a reason why certain people have to drive a Ford Focus and others can drive a Mercedes Benz. It's just the way the world works.

By the way, I thought that you didn't even want one of these watches?

I find it baffling this anti plating hatred held by some here.

We have had Silver Plate and Gold Plate for decades, Centuries even I suspect.

By your own words, why would anyone buy a solid gold watch if they can buy a gold plated one for the same price.

Ok, that is a logical point of view.

So, given that, answer me this:

Why does anyone buy a solid gold neck chain, a solid gold ring?
You can buy gold plated ones for a fraction of the price.

Why do people buy Diamonds?
You can buy Cubic zirconia ones that any normal person would never be able to tell the difference.

Explain this to me?

You are saying, if Apple made, let's say a 18K gold watch for $10,000 and a gold plated model for $1000, then all the rich people would not bother with the $10,000 one and just go for the plated one?

Sorry, but I don't agree.

If that was the case, everyone would be wearing plated good and fake stones, and man made items that are copies of the genuine article.

Sorry, but your views are wrong, and real life proves it.

 

[Rogifan]

some people (OP included) are going to lose their **** when the real prices are announced. $999? c'mon son.

Gruber speculates on Twitter that Apple might put up a slide showing off prices of high end luxury watches to make the Edition price seem cheap in comparison. Except the Edition watch isn't a luxury timepiece.

 

[Piggie]

Wait a minute. You mean this person is now admitting the Watch will contain a weighty quantity of gold (or am I misreading) after spending many months and devoting countless threads debating that the amount of gold would be small and insignificant? Just look at the John Gruber's thoughts on Apple Watch thread starting at post #84.

https://forums.macrumors.com/threads/1780537/

They even wrongly reporting me as trolling (so they are [the only person] on my ignore list and I don't see posts except when quoted) for simply quoiting them and pointing out they were incorrect in saying the Edition would contain only a trivial amount gold (they even said $100 worth of gold maximum) while I was (and still do) saying the Watch would contain about an ounce of Au.

So now not only do they owe me an apology for wrongly reporting me as a troll, they now owe me a 'looks like you were right' too.

It's amazing how some people (this person) does not read things correctly.
I forgive them, as they are not English I'm guessing, so their grasp of the language may not be that could.

I did say the word "could"

We are all speculating and it's find to say, something "could" have this or "could" have that.

It's a vast difference from saying "will"

Right now, it could be $999, it could be $9999

Anything could be the truth until we see what Apple have done.

----------

Gruber speculates on Twitter that Apple might put up a slide showing off prices of high end luxury watches to make the Edition price seem cheap in comparison. Except the Edition watch isn't a luxury timepiece.

Indeed.
I know, and agree with you.

I really would struggle to watch Apple putting up slides of high end mechanical timepieces all built by hand, and then putting up, basically an iPod Touch scaled down into a watch shaped shell and trying to make out they are the same thing.

May as well price your LCD screen in a gold wooden frame the same as a Master Oil Painting as look, they both can display the same image.
Only the LCD screen is better as it can display any work of art on it.

So it's the same.... yes?

 

[MojoRisinSD]

Like I posted in a similar thread, anyone who thinks Apple is just going to follow lockstep with the rest of the fashion/watch industry when it comes to the Watch Edition haven't been paying attention to what Apple has done over the past decade. Let's think about which of these scenarios seems more Apple-like:

Follow the traditional path, mark up the Watch Edition massively, and sell a handful of them to the top 1%.

or

Think Different, set the Watch Edition price at $1500 - $2500, and sell truckloads to the top 25%.

 

[Lennyvalentin]

I find it baffling this anti plating hatred held by some here.

< ... >

Sorry, but your views are wrong, and real life proves it.

No hatred here, I have no horse in this race and not really interested in a gold watch - certainly not a plated gold watch - due to things like price, and/or scratch proneness.

I - and at least one other person - simply and logically point out to you that it's just not in Apple's interest to offer a plated mock-gold watch just to appease a demanding budget segment which you argue exists.

A plated gold Watch would absolutely cannibalize sales of the actual-gold Watch, as well as devalue its more expensive sibling, you're just being obtuse by refusing to acknowledge this.

And sorry, but YOU are wrong - obviously - since Apple isn't offering a plated gold watch. If you were right, they would. But they're not.

 

[Piggie]

No hatred here, I have no horse in this race and not really interested in a gold watch - certainly not a plated gold watch - due to things like price, and/or scratch proneness.

I - and at least one other person - simply and logically point out to you that it's just not in Apple's interest to offer a plated mock-gold watch just to appease a demanding budget segment which you argue exists.

A plated gold Watch would absolutely cannibalize sales of the actual-gold Watch, as well as devalue its more expensive sibling, you're just being obtuse by refusing to acknowledge this.

And sorry, but YOU are wrong - obviously - since Apple isn't offering a plated gold watch. If you were right, they would. But they're not.

Sorry but I still do not grasp your logic here.

Why have gold played neck chains not decimated the solid gold neck chains?
Why have gold played rings with fake diamonds not decimated the real gold with real diamond industry!

Why do people buy diamonds when no one other that a trained professional can tell the difference ?

I'm sure you may loose a few sales here and there, but people who enjoy real gold watches, I cannot see being steered towards the gold played model instead.
All I could see happening in any numbers would be that you could up sell a big percentage of people from the stainless version up to the gold plated version for say $ 100 more.

People who like the look/colour would pay a bit more, but I really don't think you would see much damage to the real gold model.

People are generally not like that.
Otherwise, as I say everyone would be going around in fake Jewelly anyway, but most don't

 

[k3ith]

I completely disagree.

If the watch costs ~ $350, gold costs ~ $1200, the watch will be $1599 - $1799. And the price will fluctuate based on the cost of gold. If it goes up, the price changes, if it goes down, the price changes. It's the way gold, silver, even lobster is priced.

Except for the people who hate Apple, everyone knows Apple has NEVER charged a premium like $500 for 'no reason'. They won't start now, because nobody would pay that premium. Apple is smart, and will charge the most it can get for something which will also sell. They'll get too much bad press from something priced $2000 higher than it should be with NO benefits.

Apple used to sell the old black macbook for $100 more than its white counterpart. So this isn't so unprecedented.

 

[Lennyvalentin]

People who like the look/colour would pay a bit more, but I really don't think you would see much damage to the real gold model.

Apple obviously differs in that opinion. I'm pretty sure that somewhere along the line the thought struck them that they might want to offer an "el cheapo Edition" plated gold Watch. After all, they're pretty smart over there in Cupertino. Yet they didn't go for it, and the obvious reason is that it would damage their true luxury offering. They want the gold color of the Edition to actually mean something.

Exclusivity actually means just that, after all.

 

[jafingi]

I don't see the problem. Apple will market the Edition Watch as a high-fashion accessory. Its target audience will be people happily buying $3000 handbags.

The gold watch will not devalue the other models; target audiences are not the same.

Guess the split of sales volume will be like this:
Watch Sport: 3/6
Watch: 2/6
Watch Edition: 1/6

 

[cleirac]

If they made a "fake" gold watch wouldn't that completely destroy the value of the real gold watch? Why would anyone even buy the real gold watch if they make one for thousands less that looks the same?

Many believe that a decent percentage of Apple customers are wealthy so I don't see the real gold watch out of their price range. The real issue is if they want to invest that kind of money into a product that will quickly become obsolete.

If they make a fake gold one it pretty much ruins the whole idea of making a real one. If you can't afford the gold one then you just have to settle for aluminum or stainless. There is a reason why certain people have to drive a Ford Focus and others can drive a Mercedes Benz. It's just the way the world works.

By the way, I thought that you didn't even want one of these watches?

To Piggie, you may have already answered this, if this post last statement/question is true, and because I basically skimmed or did not read your most recent epic long posts, why do you spend so much time on something you did not even want?

 

[DakotaGuy]

I find it baffling this anti plating hatred held by some here.

We have had Silver Plate and Gold Plate for decades, Centuries even I suspect.

By your own words, why would anyone buy a solid gold watch if they can buy a gold plated one for the same price.

Ok, that is a logical point of view.

So, given that, answer me this:

Why does anyone buy a solid gold neck chain, a solid gold ring?
You can buy gold plated ones for a fraction of the price.

Why do people buy Diamonds?
You can buy Cubic zirconia ones that any normal person would never be able to tell the difference.

Explain this to me?

You are saying, if Apple made, let's say a 18K gold watch for $10,000 and a gold plated model for $1000, then all the rich people would not bother with the $10,000 one and just go for the plated one?

Sorry, but I don't agree.

If that was the case, everyone would be wearing plated good and fake stones, and man made items that are copies of the genuine article.

Sorry, but your views are wrong, and real life proves it.

Let me ask you this question... Does Rolex offer a fake gold plated watch that looks just like their real gold models for thousands less?

They don't? I wonder why?

Look we understand that you want Apple to offer a luxury real gold model and then offer a cheaper fake look alike gold model, but you honestly can't see how that devalues the real thing? How would anyone even tell which one was real without a very close inspection?

Do you even understand the luxury market? The gold is exclusive for "the have's" and if there is a cheap fake look alike for "the have not's" then the gold watch is no longer an exclusive.

 

[j26]

Seems to me there's people here desperately trying to reassure themselves that Apple=Luxury, when in reality it's a mass market producer, albeit a quality one.

Maybe it's the genius of Apple marketing that it genuinely does make its customers feel like they are privileged.

 

[Piggie]

Seems to me there's people here desperately trying to reassure themselves that Apple=Luxury, when in reality it's a mass market producer, albeit a quality one.

Maybe it's the genius of Apple marketing that it genuinely does make its customers feel like they are privileged.

Nailed it. Spot on.
And yes, you have it exactly right.
Well done.

 

[cleirac]

You should get a room, and keep making a fool of yourselves.

Apple is not really trying to be the Ferrari or Masseratti with Apple Watch Edition (and their current & past offerings), it will just be a kind of affordable luxury category, like the BMW and Mercedes ,to put it in simpler terms that both of you can understand.

Yeah, if they price the AWE to be more than >$20k, let's talk. And continue with your BS.