The Gold Watch Problem - My Thoughs on wild predicitions.
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DakotaGuy
macrumors 601
My prediction is $4,995 and honestly I think plenty of people will no issue forking that over for a real gold watch. If you can't afford it then it's not for you. I have no problem admitting that I can't afford it. Well I probably could, but $4,995 is a major purchase for me so I don't think I'd be spending that on a watch! I spent $299 on my LG G Watch R and that was one of my major tech purchases for the year.
Mad Mac Maniac
macrumors 601
I'm not entirely sure why you felt the need to create a thread for this issue, as you've peppered this exact sentiment in about 80% of the threads in this forum
But that aside (I mean I actually take take the time to read this after all) I will respond to each of these 3 points...1) The Apple Watch Sport is the mass market device. It is blatantly FALSE that every Apple product is for the mass market (look no farther than the Mac Pro). I would agree with you if the product line began in the thousands, but the sport collection fills this niche.
2) Just as Apple puts their Mac Mini next to their Mac Pro. I really don't see how this can stop Apple from pricing appropriately
3) This is a repeat of 1. I direct your attention to the sport collection.
Now I see your point of "people may just want to gold color" which may be true. But if Apple wanted to give the gold color to the masses they would have it be simply gold colored (as they do with the iPhone). But they want to have an expensive, luxury, fashion item so they not even just gold plate it, but make it solid gold. Now surely you can understand that if (hypothetically) Apple releases a solid gold $6,000+ watch, there is absolutely no way they would include a gold colored/plated watch in the $400-$1000 range just for people who want the gold color... that would dilute the appeal/exclusivity of the edition collection.
When I read your posts I can't help but think that this is your way of trying to rationalize this to yourself (even if it's subconscious) because you want to buy the edition, but don't want to spend $6,000+.
You're arguments ONLY make sense from the perspective of "Apple wants to be be our friend and doesn't care about profits". From a business perspective it makes ALL the sense in the world to have a super expensive/exclusive/luxury/fashion watch collection that is for the super rich that can afford it. That elevates the entire Apple Watch brand just by having that $6,000+ collection.
I don't have any Apple stock and I don't plan on getting the gold watch, so I don't care either way. I have no skin in the game. But if I were a stock holder, you'd better believe that I'd be hoping for a $10,000 gold watch (with a 600% profit margin). Even if they barely sell any, it'd be better for Apple's bottom line than a $1,500 gold watch (with a 5% profit margin)
I'm not entirely sure why you felt the need to create a thread for this issue, as you've peppered this exact sentiment in about 80% of the threads in this forum
1) The Apple Watch Sport is the mass market device. It is blatantly FALSE that every Apple product is for the mass market (look no farther than the Mac Pro). I would agree with you if the product line began in the thousands, but the sport collection fills this niche.
2) Just as Apple puts their Mac Mini next to their Mac Pro. I really don't see how this can stop Apple from pricing appropriately
3) This is a repeat of 1. I direct your attention to the sport collection.
Now I see your point of "people may just want to gold color" which may be true. But if Apple wanted to give the gold color to the masses they would have it be simply gold colored (as they do with the iPhone). But they want to have an expensive, luxury, fashion item so they not even just gold plate it, but make it solid gold. Now surely you can understand that if (hypothetically) Apple releases a solid gold $6,000+ watch, there is absolutely no way they would include a gold colored/plated watch in the $400-$1000 range just for people who want the gold color... that would dilute the appeal/exclusivity of the edition collection.
When I read your posts I can't help but think that this is your way of trying to rationalize this to yourself (even if it's subconscious) because you want to buy the edition, but don't want to spend $6,000+.
You're arguments ONLY make sense from the perspective of "Apple wants to be be our friend and doesn't care about profits". From a business perspective it makes ALL the sense in the world to have a super expensive/exclusive/luxury/fashion watch collection that is for the super rich that can afford it. That elevates the entire Apple Watch brand just by having that $6,000+ collection.
I don't have any Apple stock and I don't plan on getting the gold watch, so I don't care either way. I have no skin in the game. But if I were a stock holder, you'd better believe that I'd be hoping for a $10,000 gold watch (with a 600% profit margin). Even if they barely sell any, it'd be better for Apple's bottom line than a $1,500 gold watch (with a 5% profit margin)
Lol, there will be a separate and more elaborate Piggie ranting on & on about this post-Apple Watch Media Event, then some more whinging a few days before and after launch day, regardless of the commercial outcome of the AW, guaranteed.
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Rogifan
macrumors Penryn
What's interesting about Watch is this will be one of the few Apple products where the functionality and capabilities will be the same whether you get the $349 Sport watch or a much more expensive gold version. There is no evidence the SS or gold watch will charge faster or contain sensors the Sport watch doesn't have. At most the other watches will probably come in a nicer box.
So the notion that the Edition watch signals Apple products aren't for everybody anymore is false as the cheapest watch will function exactly the same as the expensive ones. Look at car companies. Toyota sells Corollas and Lexus. Does someone buying a Corolla think they're inferior because they can't afford a Lexus? I wonder if Apple will pitch this as sort of democratizing fashion. I'd much rather have them do something like that then try and position the Edition watch as equivalent to a very high-end traditional watch.
So the notion that the Edition watch signals Apple products aren't for everybody anymore is false as the cheapest watch will function exactly the same as the expensive ones. Look at car companies. Toyota sells Corollas and Lexus. Does someone buying a Corolla think they're inferior because they can't afford a Lexus? I wonder if Apple will pitch this as sort of democratizing fashion. I'd much rather have them do something like that then try and position the Edition watch as equivalent to a very high-end traditional watch.
Piggie
macrumors G3
It does not bother me personally as I only see the watch as technology and would buy it in plastic if it worked the same.
I am talking about this from a wider non personal point of view.
Let me just say this, and in years to come you can tell me I'm wrong
Either the edition will be priced far less than some of the wild estimates on here.
Or
Apple will make a cheaper gold version in the future. Be that gold plated, gold anodised of some other method.
Now tell me I'm wrong and this won't happen.
I am talking about this from a wider non personal point of view.
Let me just say this, and in years to come you can tell me I'm wrong
Either the edition will be priced far less than some of the wild estimates on here.
Or
Apple will make a cheaper gold version in the future. Be that gold plated, gold anodised of some other method.
Now tell me I'm wrong and this won't happen.
Yes, I believe they will employ a similar strategy, however, Apple products are not for everyone anyway plus, that is not quite right IMO, the Sport & Standard are still Lexus-the low-end ones with the Edition-the Lexus highest edition regardless if there are Easter bunnies features exclusive to the Edition or not.
Lennyvalentin
macrumors 65816
You're half right, IMO.Now tell me I'm wrong and this won't happen.
Watch Edition won't cost $10k+ is my guess. I'd expect like 6k at most, maybe plus/minus a bit depending on the strap, and even that would be pushing it IMO, but Apple's known for getting away with overpricing their gear for many years now, so I'm being extra generous just to make sure I don't underestimate. *shrug*However, they'll never do a faux gold or gold plated version as long as they have a solid gold version in the lineup because for the friggin umpteenth time, that dilutes the high-end offering!
Do you see any swiss luxury watchmakers offering gold plated stainless steel versions of their flagship timepieces? Heck, any gold plated stuff at all?
iPhones don't come in solid gold because that would be ridiculous (and it couldn't hold up mechanically anyway due to the softness of the metal), but a gold-plated watch is just tacky in comparison to the real thing, and high-end buyers know it. It would drag down the brand instead of elevate it.
And yeah, before you disagree and say the Watch Edition isn't a luxury item comparable to swiss brands - it's made of solid gold man. How would it NOT be a luxury item...?
Rogifan
macrumors Penryn
I would feel uneasy if Apple wasn't selling the $349 Sport watch or if the Edition came with faster processor, more storage, better screen etc. My only concern is messaging and how Apple keeps the price of the Edition watch from dominating the conversation.
It does not bother me personally as I only see the watch as technology and would buy it in plastic if it worked the same.
I am talking about this from a wider non personal point of view.
Let me just say this, and in years to come you can tell me I'm wrong
Either the edition will be priced far less than some of the wild estimates on here.
Or
Apple will make a cheaper gold version in the future. Be that gold plated, gold anodised of some other method.
Now tell me I'm wrong and this won't happen.
You're wrong and it won't happen. The entire point of the gold watch is that it costs 10k and jealous people (you keep posting about this damn topic for some reason despite being shown all evidence to the contrary that this lower pricing never happens in the watch market) can't afford it. When someone sees the watch, therefore, it will be very clear what that person is wearing.
Night Spring
macrumors P6
Let us try another angle. Some people like luxury goods, but they do not like the color gold. They might want the Apple watch in white gold or platinum, but Apple doesn't offer such options. If they want a silver colored Apple watch, they have to settle for the relatively cheap stainless steel option, or get nothing at all. Oh noes, Apple is neglecting an important market segment!
MojoRisinSD
macrumors regular
You say that a reasonably priced gold watch "never happens in the watch market", but this isn't the traditional "watch market" that we are talking about here. When Apple is involved, traditional ways of thinking get pushed to the side pretty quickly! How do you think they shake up every market they move into?
Anyways, none of us know exactly what will happen a week from now in terms of pricing, it wouldn't be a huge surprise to me if
Watch Edition was priced around $2000 but it would surprise me if it were over $5000.You say that a reasonably priced gold watch "never happens in the watch market", but this isn't the traditional "watch market" that we are talking about here. When Apple is involved, traditional ways of thinking get pushed to the side pretty quickly! How do you think they shake up every market they move into?
Anyways, none of us know exactly what will happen a week from now in terms of pricing, it wouldn't be a huge surprise to me if
You are correct that this is a new market and I really have no idea how a gold Apple watch will fly. I am directly in the target market and have no intention of buying one, but I understand the watch market well. I will however point out that the Gold Apple watch does not need to succeed on its own ... The mere existence of it has good marketing and halo effects for the rest of the line. And two, when has Apple ever tried to be the low cost leader in something? That's entirely opposite to their pricing strategy.
There's a lot of wishful thinking happening here. It's going to be expensive ... Bet on it. I think comparable pricing to other gold watches is likely.
As ridiculous as that sounds, what IF Apple released an 18k Gold iPhone 6 (6G) and priced it at $15k. Who in their right mind would pay $15k for a phone with the same internals as a regular $800 model?
Maybe for a year or two some people would be impressed that you are wealthy enough to make such an over-the-top purchase for a status symbol. However, there would be a certain percentage of people who would just think you are a fool with money to purchase something that will soon be functionally obsolete.
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I think there will be quite a wide price range in the stainless steel model. If it takes off, the stainless steel may likely become the bread and butter, though I'm guessing the focus will be on the Sport at first. I can completely see the Stainless Steel ranging from $500 with a sport band to $1200 or more with a stainless steel link band. In future years, we could see Apple add models in the $2000 range with precious metal trim or plating (e.g. sterling silver, or white gold or platinum plating).
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I think it's entirely possible Apple hadn't decided on the pricing back in September. Unlike a Rolex, it may be hard to justify $20,000 without some sort of upgrade program, since technology itself doesn't last that long (screens have a finite life, etc. even without considering the fact that technology advances rapidly).
But with Gruber out there saying that there might be a $20,000 Edition, and that it will be at least $10,000, what if it turns out it is "only" $7,500 for most models, or even lower with the sport band? All of a sudden the discussion no longer is about how insane Apple is for trying to sell a watch for so much, but rather how "off" all the insanely high predictions were?
Also, is it possible that Apple doesn't actually reveal the pricing of the Edition yet? Maybe it becomes a "limited edition" that is not available at the initial launch, and you sign up for it and they send you a quote later? Eventually the price would get out, but that's entirely a way for them to say that the Sport and stainless steel are for the masses.
matrix07
macrumors G3
Like I posted in a similar thread, anyone who thinks Apple is just going to follow lockstep with the rest of the fashion/watch industry when it comes to the
Follow the traditional path, mark up the
or
Think Different, set the
I'm thinking about it. Still can't see how come the second choice is instituting a thinking different when it just follows LG or Lenovo path instead of hi-end watch market? ???
Also, if you didn't know that Apple had hired a CEO from fashion firm as their stores VP, you didn't pay attention at all.
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Twice today I've seen reports that say the all gold model which is the top of the line retails for a modest $19,999.
While that's higher than my guess it does make sense. Apple is assuming they can compete in the luxury lifestyle arena, where watches that range from $40,000 to $120,000 are worn by the well heeled men and women. To insure a degree of exclusivity Apple has priced it accordingly.
www.idigitaltimes.com/apple-watch-p...50-20000-according-latest-release-date-418392
While that's higher than my guess it does make sense. Apple is assuming they can compete in the luxury lifestyle arena, where watches that range from $40,000 to $120,000 are worn by the well heeled men and women. To insure a degree of exclusivity Apple has priced it accordingly.
www.idigitaltimes.com/apple-watch-p...50-20000-according-latest-release-date-418392
Night Spring
macrumors P6
The number of times a rumor is repeated doesn't increase the chances of it being correct. We are getting an echo effect here -- speculation in forums are picked up by blogs, then people see those blogs and report them again on forums. It looks like we are getting rumors from multiple sources but actually they are just the same speculation being repeated.
JayLenochiniMac
macrumors G5
Exactly correct.
Lennyvalentin
macrumors 65816
Extremely true, especially with the rampant hype that always starts to spread whenever an Apple event is drawing close. Echo chamber effect has happened SO many times in the past with previous Apple products.
Edit:
I had a look at the link and yeah, that's the same image that was created by a forum user (here?) and posted as speculation. It's made-up and completely fake. $20k is for the fake, non-existing solid gold link bracelet which Apple hasn't invented (yet, anyway, heh.)
That website must have an awesome fact checking department! lol...
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dylman
macrumors regular
I think the Edition watch will cost at the very top end of the estimates, ie $10,000+ (and it could be $20,000). But I don't believe Apple will reveal the price either. It'll be listed as $POA and left there as otherwise the price would dominate the media coverage and it's all anyone will be talking about.
Rogifan
macrumors Penryn
If Apple doesn't announce the price that's all anyone will be talking about. And throwing out ridiculous figures. If Apple has chosen to position the Edition as equivalent to a very high end time piece they have to announce it and be able to defend it. There's no way Apple can get around it or hide it.
Julien
macrumors G4
Agreed, I think controlling the way it's announced and getting it over with if is a far better method than letting it fester. This way Apple can spin it (easy to do since it is true) so that even $5,000 or $10,000 looks like a bargain compared to the rest of the industry.
For those who think the Edition will cost $20,000 take a look at This Rolex Submariner which is a very desirable watch and 18 Carot gold and steel at $11,600.
http://www.jomashop.com/rolex-submarine-watch-116613-bkso.html
http://www.jomashop.com/rolex-submarine-watch-116613-bkso.html