I've been pretty accurate with my predictions over the years, about the 3GS, iPhone 4, and early rumors indicate that the bulk of the major features requested here will become a reality in the next update... https://forums.macrumors.com/threads/1021233/
And this is what my gut is telling me is going to happen re: Verizon...
a.) Verizon WILL NOT tolerate being left behind in June. Having to sell an old device while their chief competitor gets the new iPhone with a dual core processor, better GPU, no buttons and either a 3.8" or a 4" screen will be a slap in the face. Multiple rumors point to Apple switching to a new antenna chip that supports both CDMA and GSM dual band. They can sell the exact same device to customers on both networks. So it's a no brainer for Apple to release the iPhone 5 for both AT&T and Verizon.
It's basic business sense. If you were Verizon, why wouldn't you want Apple to release their newest product on your network especially since your competitor will be getting it.
And if you were Apple, and you already have an antenna that can work on both CDMA and GSM networks, why wouldn't you want your newest product to be sold as widely as possible. Apple makes some serious cash each time an iPhone gets sold.
b.) Verizon will offer a trade in program for early adopters of the iPhone 4 to get the iPhone 5 for a subsidized price. This keeps their customers happy, and really wouldn't cost Verizon anything. The Verizon iPhone 4's are still in very high demand. Tons of iPhone 4's can be sold refurbished to their current customers for $49 with a 2 year contract renewal. And that still makes Verizon lots of money. I expect that Verizon iPhone 4 owners will be able to trade their iPhone 4 to Verizon, in order to be able to upgrade to the iPhone 5 for likely $199 but possibly for as little as $99. Lots of trade in sites give you $300-400 for old iPhones which they in turn sell to other customers for more, Verizon can do the same.
Thanks to Apple's brand name and the Retina Display, the iPhone 4 and subsequent iPhone versions will always have much higher resale value than other comparable smartphones. Last July, once I got my iPhone 4 for $199, I sold my 3GS unlocked on ebay for $422, and sold my brothers old 3G unlocked on Craigslist for $270. I doubt a 1-2 year old android phone would have fetched anywhere near as much. I made $322 more money selling my 3GS on ebay than I would have if AT&T allowed me to trade in my 3GS to them, and pay $99 to get myself the iPhone 4. Few people realize just how much money their old iPhones command. AT&T and Verizon could and likely will capitalize on this by letting people trade them in, and if nothing else, turning around and reselling them on ebay at a substantial profit.
Apple is not going to push back the iPhone upgrade for the sake of Verizon. The iPhone is sold around the world. Lots of new carriers were added mid year only to get a new iPhone released (available on their network as well), a few months later. What makes Verizon so special?
After 4 years of a new iPhone announcement in June and release in July, customers around the world have an expectation. They know to expect a new iPhone every July. Apple will not let them down. If Apple meant for this Verizon iPhone to be considered the new iPhone model for the whole year, they would have branded it as the iPhone 4V or the iPhone 4S or something. Instead, they are marketing it as the iPhone 4. This is the iPhone 4, the same one they released last July, just with a slightly different frequency. The actual iPhone 5 will be released (on both networks) this July.
Apple has no reason to screw over Verizon either. They will release a new iPhone in July, and it will be available on both AT&T and Verizon. I'll bump this thread in July once it happens, and if it doesn't, I'll eat my hat.
As for Verizon's trade in program. It seems very logical, and basically free for Verizon to do something like this.
They let customers trade in their iPhone 4s, pay $99-$199, and get the iPhone 5. They turn around and sell the iPhone 4s for $49-99 refurbished with a new contract (which is the equivalent of $500 in revenue for them). Their customers are happy. It's win win.
Both AT&T and Verizon supposedly will have their 4G/LTE networks up and running in 2012. Verizon is promising that it will be ready by February 2012, giving Apple plenty of time to abandon CDMA and test out their new network prior to the iPhone 6's release. Here's how I see this playing out...
June/July 2012 - LTE/4G iPhone 6 announced and released on Verizon and AT&T simultaneously, iPhone 5 reduced to $99 price point, refurbished iPhone 5's sold for $49 or $69, possibly a trade in program for people with an iPhone 5 to upgrade to the iPhone 6, iPhone 4 phased out completely.
June/July 2011 - Dual band GSM/CDMA iPhone 5 (or a seperate but otherwise identical CDMA and GSM iPhone 5) announced and released on Verizon and AT&T simultaneously. iPhone 4 reduced to $99 price point. Refurbished iPhone 4's (purchased by Verizon through the trade in program), sold for $69 or $49.
Cost conscious customers will be able to get their hands on a really awesome refurbished smartphone for a paltry $49/$69 with a two year contract, and that's going to lead to an influx of iPhone adopters. So basically, Verizon will let customers trade in their old iPhone 4 to Verizon, pay $99, $149 or $199, and get their hands on the iPhone 5 with a brand new 2 year contract. Verizon turns around and sells these phones to customers refurbished for $69 with a new two year contract. That $30/$50 in losses they suffer + the cost of refurbishing the phone, will be more than made up for by the 6 month extension that iPhone 4 customers added to their contracts.
If AT&T opts not to move up people's contracts again as they did with past iPhone releases, they would be wise to offer such a similar trade in program. Trade in your iPhone 4, pay $99, sign a new two year contract, and get yourself an iPhone 5. The trade in phones get sold as refurbished units for $49 with a new contract.
Apple has every reason to encourage such an aggressive pricing scheme because it will dramatically increase the sales of their devices. This in turn increases app sales, market penetration, and will help them stay well ahead of Android, BB and Windows Mobile 7 phones. Many people who aren't tech enthusiasts, and thus would never consider paying $199 for a smartphone, even an iPhone, probably wouldn't think twice about paying $49 for one, even if it is refurbished. Unlike, Verizon, AT&T and Apple, many people do not take into account just how much the two year contract renewal is going to cost in the long run. Same applies to young people with limited month to month disposable incomes.
And this is what my gut is telling me is going to happen re: Verizon...
a.) Verizon WILL NOT tolerate being left behind in June. Having to sell an old device while their chief competitor gets the new iPhone with a dual core processor, better GPU, no buttons and either a 3.8" or a 4" screen will be a slap in the face. Multiple rumors point to Apple switching to a new antenna chip that supports both CDMA and GSM dual band. They can sell the exact same device to customers on both networks. So it's a no brainer for Apple to release the iPhone 5 for both AT&T and Verizon.
It's basic business sense. If you were Verizon, why wouldn't you want Apple to release their newest product on your network especially since your competitor will be getting it.
And if you were Apple, and you already have an antenna that can work on both CDMA and GSM networks, why wouldn't you want your newest product to be sold as widely as possible. Apple makes some serious cash each time an iPhone gets sold.
b.) Verizon will offer a trade in program for early adopters of the iPhone 4 to get the iPhone 5 for a subsidized price. This keeps their customers happy, and really wouldn't cost Verizon anything. The Verizon iPhone 4's are still in very high demand. Tons of iPhone 4's can be sold refurbished to their current customers for $49 with a 2 year contract renewal. And that still makes Verizon lots of money. I expect that Verizon iPhone 4 owners will be able to trade their iPhone 4 to Verizon, in order to be able to upgrade to the iPhone 5 for likely $199 but possibly for as little as $99. Lots of trade in sites give you $300-400 for old iPhones which they in turn sell to other customers for more, Verizon can do the same.
Thanks to Apple's brand name and the Retina Display, the iPhone 4 and subsequent iPhone versions will always have much higher resale value than other comparable smartphones. Last July, once I got my iPhone 4 for $199, I sold my 3GS unlocked on ebay for $422, and sold my brothers old 3G unlocked on Craigslist for $270. I doubt a 1-2 year old android phone would have fetched anywhere near as much. I made $322 more money selling my 3GS on ebay than I would have if AT&T allowed me to trade in my 3GS to them, and pay $99 to get myself the iPhone 4. Few people realize just how much money their old iPhones command. AT&T and Verizon could and likely will capitalize on this by letting people trade them in, and if nothing else, turning around and reselling them on ebay at a substantial profit.
Apple is not going to push back the iPhone upgrade for the sake of Verizon. The iPhone is sold around the world. Lots of new carriers were added mid year only to get a new iPhone released (available on their network as well), a few months later. What makes Verizon so special?
After 4 years of a new iPhone announcement in June and release in July, customers around the world have an expectation. They know to expect a new iPhone every July. Apple will not let them down. If Apple meant for this Verizon iPhone to be considered the new iPhone model for the whole year, they would have branded it as the iPhone 4V or the iPhone 4S or something. Instead, they are marketing it as the iPhone 4. This is the iPhone 4, the same one they released last July, just with a slightly different frequency. The actual iPhone 5 will be released (on both networks) this July.
Apple has no reason to screw over Verizon either. They will release a new iPhone in July, and it will be available on both AT&T and Verizon. I'll bump this thread in July once it happens, and if it doesn't, I'll eat my hat.
As for Verizon's trade in program. It seems very logical, and basically free for Verizon to do something like this.
They let customers trade in their iPhone 4s, pay $99-$199, and get the iPhone 5. They turn around and sell the iPhone 4s for $49-99 refurbished with a new contract (which is the equivalent of $500 in revenue for them). Their customers are happy. It's win win.
Both AT&T and Verizon supposedly will have their 4G/LTE networks up and running in 2012. Verizon is promising that it will be ready by February 2012, giving Apple plenty of time to abandon CDMA and test out their new network prior to the iPhone 6's release. Here's how I see this playing out...
June/July 2012 - LTE/4G iPhone 6 announced and released on Verizon and AT&T simultaneously, iPhone 5 reduced to $99 price point, refurbished iPhone 5's sold for $49 or $69, possibly a trade in program for people with an iPhone 5 to upgrade to the iPhone 6, iPhone 4 phased out completely.
June/July 2011 - Dual band GSM/CDMA iPhone 5 (or a seperate but otherwise identical CDMA and GSM iPhone 5) announced and released on Verizon and AT&T simultaneously. iPhone 4 reduced to $99 price point. Refurbished iPhone 4's (purchased by Verizon through the trade in program), sold for $69 or $49.
Cost conscious customers will be able to get their hands on a really awesome refurbished smartphone for a paltry $49/$69 with a two year contract, and that's going to lead to an influx of iPhone adopters. So basically, Verizon will let customers trade in their old iPhone 4 to Verizon, pay $99, $149 or $199, and get their hands on the iPhone 5 with a brand new 2 year contract. Verizon turns around and sells these phones to customers refurbished for $69 with a new two year contract. That $30/$50 in losses they suffer + the cost of refurbishing the phone, will be more than made up for by the 6 month extension that iPhone 4 customers added to their contracts.
If AT&T opts not to move up people's contracts again as they did with past iPhone releases, they would be wise to offer such a similar trade in program. Trade in your iPhone 4, pay $99, sign a new two year contract, and get yourself an iPhone 5. The trade in phones get sold as refurbished units for $49 with a new contract.
Apple has every reason to encourage such an aggressive pricing scheme because it will dramatically increase the sales of their devices. This in turn increases app sales, market penetration, and will help them stay well ahead of Android, BB and Windows Mobile 7 phones. Many people who aren't tech enthusiasts, and thus would never consider paying $199 for a smartphone, even an iPhone, probably wouldn't think twice about paying $49 for one, even if it is refurbished. Unlike, Verizon, AT&T and Apple, many people do not take into account just how much the two year contract renewal is going to cost in the long run. Same applies to young people with limited month to month disposable incomes.
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