The history is always repeating itself (negative reactions and expectations). Just go back in time.
![IMG_3069.jpeg]( "IMG_3069.jpeg")
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The iPhone Will Fail
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Jobs stated their goal to capture just 1% of the mobile phone market in 2008, which would mean 10M iPhones. They hit that before the year was up. To date, Apple has sold over 2B iPhones.
Tony Fadell even said recently that Apple “jumped the shark” with Vision Pro. What he and Mark Z seem to forget is that the internet doesn’t forget…
Tony Fadell even said recently that Apple “jumped the shark” with Vision Pro. What he and Mark Z seem to forget is that the internet doesn’t forget…
AVP is years ahead the competition, even with that price tag for the “beta”.
It’s like a time capsule, and people always repeat things.
The iPhone was never $3499.
At that price range only people who could afford a Mac Pro would buy one.
For Vision Pro to achieve "iPhone success" it needs to drop to iPhone's $429-1599 price range.
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What is success though? That’s always a tricky thing to define.
1/3rd of a billion shipped annually worldwide of Apple devices selling for $429-1599.
This is inflated adjusted from today's worldwide population of 8+ billion humans to a peak of 10.4 billion.
Apple's currently pushing a 1/4th of a billion iPhones at that price points.
Sadly, we are going to see a ton of similar hit pieces for the Vision Pro because the world is filled with Apple haters, and because anti-Apple news have proven to be fairly effective in driving clicks and views. You would think that after more than a decade, people would have learnt to give Apple the benefit of a doubt, but no, I guess it's just a lesson Apple will have to keep teaching (and which detractors will keep ignoring, to their own detriment).
The original iPhone was $500 - the closest equivalent was the T-Mobile G1 (the first Android phone) at $150. Apple took all the high end. That I can get a *modern* iPhone with all the updates from the last 16 years at *below* $500 is insane.
In the future (say 5 years maybe?) you'll be able to get VisionPro 2 for maybe $2500. 3 will sell for $1999. These will be 'SE' versions with maybe some fancier features left off. Eventually you'll end up w/ Air vs Pro versions, or something like that.
I’m not really sure what you’re saying, but it sounds like you’re saying AVP is successful if it hits one of those numbers. Ok that’s fine, but what I really meant by my previous comment was that everyone has their own expectations and definition of success, but it’s hard to find a definition of success that everyone or even most can agree on.
I mean this is not just an Apple thing. A device isn't successful until it's proven so. I can understand why many didn't expect the iPhone to be a success at that time, the reasons were mostly reasonable based on what was known at the time about the market and the iPhone.
I can understand why people are doubting the Vision Pro, again, the reasons are reasonable based on what we know about the device and the market today. It will be a success once it's proven to be. In the meantime, speculation is all there is.
The world is not just filled with Apple Haters, it has haters for everything. Only Apple users believe it's only about Apple.
I can understand why people are doubting the Vision Pro, again, the reasons are reasonable based on what we know about the device and the market today. It will be a success once it's proven to be. In the meantime, speculation is all there is.
The world is not just filled with Apple Haters, it has haters for everything. Only Apple users believe it's only about Apple.
But the price points you listed will not allow for 1/3rd of a billion units shipped worldwide annually.
During the 2007 iPhone event Steve Jobs pointed to functions & devices the iPhone would replace namely:
- game consoles (PlayStation, Xbox & Nintendo)
- digital cameras (Canon, Nikon, Sony, etc)
- MP3 players (iPod, Zune, etc)
- PCs (Macs & Windows)
- Mobile Phones (Motorola, BlackBerry, Palm, Nokia, etc)
Over 16 years later
- Apple Makes More on Games than PlayStation, Xbox, Nintendo + Activision + Windows COMBINED
- Digital camera units shipped dropped from a 2010 all time high back to year 1999 to 2000 low.
- iPods are dead
- PCs stagnated to shipping units equal to iPhone + iPad combined
- Motorola was bought by Google then sold to Lenovo, BlackBerry went into bankruptcy and was bought by a Chinese company, Palm got dismantled & sold, Nokia was bought by Microsoft, dismantled and sold back to the Fins
From 2007 to today our mobile Internet experience improved from 3G, 4G and now 5G.
Within the same time period the Vision Pro would receive 6G, 7G and 8G by year 2040.
In 2007 broadband Internet was less than 10Mbps at $50/month.
Fiber to the Home would likely be more than 10Gbps at $50/month by year 2040.
With the Vision Pro the keynote showed it replacing/supplementing
- iPhones
- Wearables
- iPads
- Macs
- Apple TV 4K
- Large 4K TVs
- Movie Theaters
- Travel
- Zoom
"Successful" by Apple standards would be to replace all their devices with the Vision Pro.
I quantified so it is measurable.
2024 will likely have 1-2 million Vision Pros sold to developers and people who dont know what to do with $3499.
At that price point it classes out at least 95% of Apple's customers. It has to brought down to iPhone prices (inflation adjusted) for it to reach iPhone success.
Wait, you’re saying Apple’s definition of success is to replace all their devices with the AVP? Where did that come from?
And are you saying it has to reach iPhone level success or anything less is not successful? If so, again, that’s one person’s definition of success.
Apple's a $3 trillion company largely because of the iPhone.
Tim has to look for the next iPhone killer and his team thinks it is the Vision Pro.
If you look at the use cases the Vision Pro is expected to do it replaces the functionality of almost all Apple hardware in the consumer space.
If Apple fails then then they may become another Motorola, BlackBerry, Palm, Nokia, etc/
It has to to increase its market cap beyond its peak of $3 trillion.
Why else spend so little time on other hardware and software announcements and spend 40+ minds of 2:06hrs on the Vision Pro?
It’s a completely false assumption that the success of Vision Pro is tied to it reaching iPhone level numbers. It likely never will. Given that iPhone prices are only trending up, and the VP is substantially more complex than iPhone, it will never reach iPhone-like prices without severe compromises in functionality, which is not characteristic of Apple.
it can still be a significant success without meeting any of your overly ambitious goals. If they can get it down to pricing around the $2k - $2.5k range it will meet significant success with a much broader market.
The Vision Pro in anything like its current form will not replace iPhone and this was not even hinted at as a goal by Apple. There were no examples of people in the keynote using this as a portable device, especially given the 2 hour battery. iPhone will be their ”on the go” device for the foreseeable future and Vision Pro aimed at the home. Or even enterprise I suppose.
The VP failing does not put Apple in the same category as those other companies because for them, their primary revenue source was disrupted by a competitor. If Apple fails they are still the market leader. A much bigger existential threat to Apple is their seeming complete absence of a strong AI strategy.
All your points and those similar to it were raised 16+ years ago. Apple never mentioned they'd kill the competition.
And here we are today at another product poised to disrupt the consumer electronics industry.
When the Vision Pro moves to the M3 and newer Mac chips it will improve its 2hr battery life.
A decade ago laptop battery life was 2hrs. Today its 22hrs.
The 1/3rd billion units annually is the end goal within 1-2 decades.
I'd be amazed if it sold 1-3 million in 2024.
Your argument is all over the place. You’re arguing that the VP needs to get to iPhone like prices and it will what? Basically replace all other Apple products?
I’m arguing that it will Never, ever get to iPhone prices and can still get broad appeal in the mid-level MacBook Pro price area. The VP seems far more likely to completely disrupt the iPad, consumer laptop and entertainment markets. We will still need iPhones for out and about and still need high end computers where that processing power is needed.
And no, laptop battery life a decade ago was not two hours, what are you even talking about? It was easily 8-9 for the MBA. 2 hour battery life was standard circa late 90s.
This is too funny. I do not why tech execs haven’t learned to keep their mouths off of Apple when Apple introduces new tech. The internet does not forget.
For the Vision Pro to be "iPhone successful" it has to sell as much as iPhones. The price points as it is right now will limit it to at about 5% of all Mac customers.
So a $3.5k Vision Pro with reportedly 2hrs battery life will disrupt the $329 iPad, $999 MBA and $129 Apple TV?
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