The iPhone Will Fail

[Longplays]

Yes but messaging and voice/video calls are not exclusive to phones. My iPad and Mac can both do this.

Bottom line, this thing is not designed to replace iPhone. It cannot fit into a pocket, it cannot last a day plus on battery and never will in the current form factor.

What you describe are the use cases that Vision Pro is positioned to replace in a decade+ time.

I was mentioning that M3 will be a free upgrade in 2024 after its official launch. It would help in the reportedly 2hr battery life.

And absolutely no one, and I mean no one, is going to walk around in public with a headset of this type instead of a phone.

Same was said about AirPods...

A far more likely scenario is that VP is the “at home“ device and they later come out with a much more minimal product in form and function such as glasses which could be an iPhone replacement. These devices would be two distinct products and complement each other.

That route may be valid for the 1st decade or so.

My point of view is how 2024 Vision Pro be like by 2040 when it hopefully ships 1/3rd of a billion units annually to a 10.4+ billion worldwide human population.

 

[kpluck]

Disclaimer: I’m not comparing the iPhone with the Apple Vision Pro.

Ok, then what was the point? Just a history repeating thing?

If so, this article was a pretty bad example IMHO. It was written before the iPhone came out and before anyone knew what its actual capabilities would be. The author seems to be going on the assumption that the iPhone would be nothing more than an iPod and phone mashup. Which, or course, it wasn't. The criticisms of the Vision Pro are based on its actual features and capabilities that Apple demoed for everyone.

☮️

-kp

 

[oneMadRssn]

The difference is iPhone (and every other successful product) offered a clear solution to everyday problems. Before iPhone, messaging devices were limited to small-screen keyboard phones like Sidekick or Blackberry, and pretty much no mobile device offered a good web browsing experience. iPhone was an immediate solution to both issues.

VP is technologically very cool, but I don't see a single thing it offers as a solution to everyday problems. I don't doubt Apple will see some success with it, but I don't see VR/AR in general moving beyond the very niche as it is now unless someone comes up with a more compelling use case, if ever.

 

[SlCKB0Y]

The Vision Pro is intended for developers who need to get a head start on developing apps for the next generation of devices that everyone will have. That is why it was announced at a developers' conference.

Whilst I agree that except for hardcore early adopters the VP at $3.5k basically represents a publicly available dev kit, its release at WWDC does not necessarily point to this. Apple has released many, many mass market consumer ready products at these events.

 

[SlCKB0Y]

The criticisms of the Vision Pro are based on its actual features and capabilities that Apple demoed for everyone.

The vast majority of criticism is really about price. Even without a substantial collection of 3rd party apps designed to take advantage of VP, it’s current Apple-only feature set is extremely compelling to me.

but as with pretty much every modern new Apple product (iPhone, MBA, iPad, Watch, iPod), they reach full maturity at about the 3rd or 4th gen, which is likely when I’ll take a look at VP.

 

[SlCKB0Y]

VP is technologically very cool, but I don't see a single thing it offers as a solution to everyday problems. I don't doubt Apple will see some success with it, but I don't see VR/AR in general moving beyond the very niche as it is now unless someone comes up with a more compelling use case, if ever.

It is definitely the clearest example in the “Modern” Apple era of a solution in search of a problem and therefore market.

it’s not like everyone owns AR/VR right now but they’re all just unhappy with the current solutions available.

 

[oneMadRssn]

It is definitely the clearest example in the “Modern” Apple era of a solution in search of a problem and therefore market.

it’s not like everyone owns AR/VR right now but they’re all just unhappy with the current solutions available.

That's exactly right.

When the iPhone came out, we all looked down at our dumbphones or Blackberries and thought "holly shoot this thing I have suuuucks in comparison. Apple seems to address nearly every frustration I have with my current phone." I don't think anyone feels that way looking at VP.

Another thing about AR/VR in general, and maybe I'm alone here, but I am very wary of bringing more cameras and always-on microphones into my house. I've resisted the voice-assistant push over the past decade. I certainly wouldn't want to hang out with anyone wearing a dozen cameras, microphones, and scanners on their head.

 

[Longplays]

That's exactly right.

When the iPhone came out, we all looked down at our dumbphones or Blackberries and thought "holly shoot this thing I have suuuucks in comparison. Apple seems to address nearly every frustration I have with my current phone." I don't think anyone feels that way looking at VP.

Another thing about AR/VR in general, and maybe I'm alone here, but I am very wary of bringing more cameras and always-on microphones into my house. I've resisted the voice-assistant push over the past decade. I certainly wouldn't want to hang out with anyone wearing a dozen cameras, microphones, and scanners on their head.

Having said people younger than me who will likely be in their preteens and teens by 2024 will likely be very comfortable using this device by the 2040s.

This is why I keep yammering about "iPhone success" for the Vision Pro in 16+ years time.

Functionality-wise it supersedes all of Apple hardware + other consumer devices like 4K TVs and services like theaters, sport venues and even domestic/international travel.

Many here explicitly refuse to think beyond what is said. You only have to see what they were demoing...

Take a watch of 2007 iPhone event 16+ years ago.

Are the companies and product categories mentioned not gobbled up by iPhone & Android by now?

 

[oneMadRssn]

Having said people younger than me who will likely be in their preteens and teens by 2024 will likely be very comfortable using this device by the 2040s.

This is why I keep yammering about "iPhone success" for the Vision Pro in 16+ years time.

Functionality-wise it supersedes all of Apple hardware + other consumer devices like 4K TVs and services like theaters, sport venues and even domestic/international travel.

Many here explicitly refuse to think beyond what is said. You only have to see what they were demoing...

Take a watch of 2007 iPhone event 16+ years ago.

Are the companies and product categories mentioned not gobbled up by iPhone & Android by now?

Not all of gen-z is video obsessed. There is a pretty sizeable chunk actually going the other way - back to dumbphones - for their simplicity and ability to disconnect. Also, in my experience, gen-z puts a very high premium on authentic experiences. They're not going to accept VR as a substitute for going to live sports in person.

Another thing - when iPhone came out, nearly everyone already had a cell phone. It's easier to slide into an existing upgrade cycle than to convince people to buy an entirely new category of product. For example, look at Apple Watch where Apple tried to create an entirely new category. It's been 8 years since it launched, and some people love it and use it and some people don't. I'd say at this point it's pretty much plateaued. I don't think smartwatches will ever see the kind of mass-market adoption that smartphones saw.

Also your example is interesting. iPhone (and the converged device revolution) did gobble up categories of products but not entire categories. What remains is sharper than ever. As one example, cheapo consumer point-and-shoot digital cameras are gone, but that doesn't mean standalone photo and video products stopped evolving. Between drone cameras, 360 action cameras, and MILCs, the camera market is still innovating.

 

[Longplays]

Also your example is interesting. iPhone (and the converged device revolution) did gobble up categories of products but not entire categories. What remains is sharper than ever. As one example, cheapo consumer point-and-shoot digital cameras are gone, but that doesn't mean standalone photo and video products stopped evolving. Between drone cameras, 360 action cameras, and MILCs, the camera market is still innovating.

I also observed that as well... for traditional digital cameras what remained was dSLR then MILCs.

To me that's just the last 20% of the market of digital still cameras.

Same with video cameras.

For general use case you're better off with a smartphone but when image/audio quality matters and rugged/remote cameras are in need then dedicate/specialized devices are better.

Apple could try to pursue it but like Mac Pro users demanding i9 & RTX 4090... it isn't worth the effort.

 

[KaiFiMacFan]

The Vision Pro is not for "developers only"; that is a cope. So the 15" MacBook Air is a developer product, that's why it was released at WWDC? Of course developers will be developing new content for this new device, but the presentation was intended for the masses, to sell people on "spatial computing". To say that it's for "developers only" is to excuse possible poor sales. We don't know how it will sell, but if it sells poorly, that won't be because it's only for developers. The first iPhone sold millions of units, the first iPad sold even more. Even if some people thought the iPhone would fail or thought the iPad was just a big iPhone, their first iterations were immensely successful. The Vision Pro will have to be successful too; there's no excuse that turns poor sales into a success.

However, I also agree with those who say that the Vision Pro does not need to be "the next iPhone" to be successful. It does not need to be Apple's most popular product. Does everyone have a Mac Studio or HomePod or even a MacBook Pro? No, but those are all still good products.

I also completely reject the notion that the Vision Pro is intended to replace all currently existing Apple tech. Apple has never been about replacing multiple products with something new. They want you to own as many of their products as possible and be locked into their ecosystem. They don't want you to throw away your laptop, phone, and tablet for the AVP.

 

[Longplays]

The Vision Pro is not for "developers only"; that is a cope. So the 15" MacBook Air is a developer product, that's why it was released at WWDC? Of course developers will be developing new content for this new device, but the presentation was intended for the masses, to sell people on "spatial computing". To say that it's for "developers only" is to excuse possible poor sales. We don't know how it will sell, but if it sells poorly, that won't be because it's only for developers. The first iPhone sold millions of units, the first iPad sold even more. Even if some people thought the iPhone would fail or thought the iPad was just a big iPhone, their first iterations were immensely successful. The Vision Pro will have to be successful too; there's no excuse that turns poor sales into a success.

However, I also agree with those who say that the Vision Pro does not need to be "the next iPhone" to be successful. It does not need to be Apple's most popular product. Does everyone have a Mac Studio or HomePod or even a MacBook Pro? No, but those are all still good products.

I also completely reject the notion that the Vision Pro is intended to replace all currently existing Apple tech. Apple has never been about replacing multiple products with something new. They want you to own as many of their products as possible and be locked into their ecosystem. They don't want you to throw away your laptop, phone, and tablet for the AVP.

Anyone could buy it but 1st adapters for a new product category tend to be devs.

Like say the Watch.

I only bought it when the Series 4 came out for the ECG health sensor.

With Vision Pro I'd likely get one as soon as a killer app comes out or a decade from now.

 

[4087258]

Ok, then what was the point? Just a history repeating thing?

If so, this article was a pretty bad example IMHO. It was written before the iPhone came out and before anyone knew what its actual capabilities would be. The author seems to be going on the assumption that the iPhone would be nothing more than an iPod and phone mashup. Which, or course, it wasn't. The criticisms of the Vision Pro are based on its actual features and capabilities that Apple demoed for everyone.

☮️

-kp

Your vision is correct. However, I had in mind all the comments I’ve seen in MR and other places after a new technology jump announcement. The iPhone article was just a summary of how hard it is - sometimes - to be positive about new ideas - to imagine and comprehend too.

Unfortunately I don’t have time to print screen other examples, but I recommend going back in time on the threads; it can be pretty funny.

 

[4087258]

I think some of us are still developing imagination to fully realize what are the great potentials of AR glasses. That’s fine, no problem with that. We are still in the very beginning.

Like we saw in this thread article, our understanding of things changes from time to time.

 

[h.gilbert]

The history is always repeating itself (negative reactions and expectations). Just go back in time.

View attachment 2216226

Why the Apple phone will fail, and fail badly

It's the Pippin all over again

www.theregister.com

No. AR/VR is a much bigger shift. You're going from viewing information that is displayed in 2D on physical thing to something where information superimposed onto 3D space. The former is how we've done it for thousands of years, the latter only came about decades ago.

 

[4087258]

No. AR/VR is a much bigger shift. You're going from viewing information that is displayed in 2D on physical thing to something where information superimposed onto 3D space. The former is how we've done it for thousands of years, the latter only came about decades ago.

That’s a nice observation, however my point wasn’t about comparing things.

 

[Night Spring]

unless someone comes up with a more compelling use case,

To me the compelling use case is it replaces my monitor(s). For instance, people are complaining Apple currently doesn't offer a 27" iMac. With Vision Pro, you could have any size monitor you want. You can also have multiple monitors without them taking up space on your desk. That's great for those of us with small desks.

I'm also thinking VP could replace my iPad Pro. Right now, I only use it at home, so battery life is not an issue. The only question is how comfortable it is to wear the VP for extended periods. But if VP is comfortable enough, and the price comes down to below $2000, I can totally see myself getting VP instead of an iPad Pro.

 

[SlCKB0Y]

Same was said about AirPods...

Why would people have said no one will actually walk around in public with AirPods on? That makes no sense to me.

Either way, even if this WAS said, it's a strawman argument as the very unobtrusive AirPods are not even a rough approximate of a very bulky AR headset.

 

[SlCKB0Y]

Anyone could buy it but 1st adapters for a new product category tend to be devs.

Like say the Watch.

There are far more technology-enthusiast early adopters than there are developers purchasing 1st gen products.

Using your Apple Watch example, I suppose Apple made all of those precious metal 1st gen Watches for devs? uh no.

 

[SlCKB0Y]

Functionality-wise it supersedes all of Apple hardware + other consumer devices like 4K TVs and services like theaters, sport venues and even domestic/international travel.

Anyone who truly thinks an AR headset can supersede the experience of travelling, either hasn't travelled or is doing it wrong.

 

[4087258]

Why would people have said no one will actually walk around in public with AirPods on? That makes no sense to me.

Yes, makes no sense. I remember people saying that it would fall easily and get lost and few people wanted to get rid of the P2 standard. I actually have seen memes of that in this very year, 2023…