It reminds me of the first cellphone by Motorola.
The DynaTAC's retail price was $3,995 (about $11,300 in 2022).
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The iPhone Will Fail
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It reminds me of the first cellphone by Motorola.
The DynaTAC's retail price was $3,995 (about $11,300 in 2022).
1. The original iPhone was a growth of the highly successful iPod, in that it took something that Apple was already very very good at, and built upon that success to create a new product category.
2. The iPhone was originally priced at a somewhat expensive $599 which Steve Jobs himself justified based on the pricing of similar devices added with the new technology. The Vision Pro is priced out of the range of most consumers.
3. Despite my personal negative feelings on the product, what Apple did with the Vision Pro was to showcase, very publicly, how far ahead the technology is compared with anything else on the market.
4. What Apple also did is set the standard for competitors to reach. The Vision Pro is likely 2-3 years ahead of anything else out there and I’m sure Samsung is already trying to steal the trade secrets to create a Galaxy Pro.
5. The true test of this product comes in two forms of which Apple can only control one:
i. Can Apple deliver a real-world experience like they demonstrate? Will the VP function as smoothly as Apple claims? Will the finger typing and gestures work properly for consumers?
ii. Is the world ready to live in a virtual universe and turn off humanity as we know it.
I have written several posts praising the technology but also remain cognizant, and ever fearful, of how this can change how humans interact; and not in a good way. I think this is the greater barrier: are we, as a society, willing to give up face to face meetings and conversations to meet, emoji to emoji in a virtual, fake, world.
Personally, I hope not.
2. The iPhone was originally priced at a somewhat expensive $599 which Steve Jobs himself justified based on the pricing of similar devices added with the new technology. The Vision Pro is priced out of the range of most consumers.
3. Despite my personal negative feelings on the product, what Apple did with the Vision Pro was to showcase, very publicly, how far ahead the technology is compared with anything else on the market.
4. What Apple also did is set the standard for competitors to reach. The Vision Pro is likely 2-3 years ahead of anything else out there and I’m sure Samsung is already trying to steal the trade secrets to create a Galaxy Pro.
5. The true test of this product comes in two forms of which Apple can only control one:
i. Can Apple deliver a real-world experience like they demonstrate? Will the VP function as smoothly as Apple claims? Will the finger typing and gestures work properly for consumers?
ii. Is the world ready to live in a virtual universe and turn off humanity as we know it.
I have written several posts praising the technology but also remain cognizant, and ever fearful, of how this can change how humans interact; and not in a good way. I think this is the greater barrier: are we, as a society, willing to give up face to face meetings and conversations to meet, emoji to emoji in a virtual, fake, world.
Personally, I hope not.
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I was thinking about that too. Apparently it lasted about 30 minutes and took 10 hours to recharge. The connection quality couldn’t have been good because of the lack of infrastructure at the time. And I couldn’t find information on what calling plans cost back then — does anyone know about this?
My dad had a cellular phone in the 80s and early 90s. The thing was about the side of a briefcase and required power from the vehicle to work. The cost was about $1 / minute plus the cost of the phone. It was so expensive, and with no battery he couldn’t keep it with him, that he still kept the beeper around until the phones miniaturized to the size of a brick.
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According to those that were able to experience the device first hand, it performed just like the demo showed. Every review I’ve read reports the same thing. Sounds like they nailed the UI.
Vision Pro is an AR-first device, so the intent is not for users to live in a “virtual universe”. That is Meta’s goal, and Apple has been clear that it is not theirs. Turning off humanity, checking out, isolating oneself — whatever you want to call it — this can happen while you’re reading a book, keeping your head down, watching media at home or in a theater, or using any number of electronic devices. You’re focused on an activity which may or may not involve others.
Reading is a good example. There are some that love to read constantly, and they are sometimes called “bookworms”. Reading a book is not a social activity. It can be a productive activity though, depending on what you’re reading, and the same can be said for other non-social activities.
Vision Pro isn’t being marketed as a replacement for physical human interaction. Working from home will continue for some, and relying on virtual meetings will be essential for them. In that scenario alone, I see VP as a much better experience. The technology behind the “persona” looks remarkable and it will only improve.
No, but the Apple that put out the iPhone also did not have the vast back-catalog of evergreen hit-products nor the level of fame and icon status that it has today after the industry disrupting success of iPhone.
AVP, being an Apple product, has already "passed the front door" for a lot of consumers just because of the brand behind it, and it will, for many, not need an irl introduction to land a sale.
However, with that said, any number of consumers trusting a brand and simply desiring a new products doesn't lend these consumers more buying power.
I agree that the price is not mainstream.
Not considering who wants to, putting down $3499 in one payment today or in Q1-Q2 2024 is only something a very small minority of consumers could do without going in debt.
So if Apple is seeking genuine mainstream adoption for AVP or in the long-term for future iterations of AVP, then it has to offer the same kinds of payment options that we're used to seeing for smartphones and tablets.
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You actually didn’t read my post. Or seemingly any of my posts in this thread did you?
The Vision Pro is intended for developers who need to get a head start on developing apps for the next generation of devices that everyone will have. That is why it was announced at a developers' conference.
I agree with you.
Similar to the 2007 iPhone that sold nearly 2 million units on its 1st year.
Oh yea, price, that thing you misquoted me on because I actually said there would be a very significant drop, just not to crazy iPhone levels like you stated. Nor do I believe that this is intended as an iPhone replacement.
from The article you posted:
So unlike you, not even Apple is touting this as a phone replacement
So you agree with the person you responded to except their main point about the only people buying VP this gen will be developers, because no one bought the iPhone in 2007 for development purposes.
I stated that I believe the VP could attain a very healthy market at around a $2k price. My other main difference of opinion is that this is not designed to be, nor could it ever realistically be (in its current form factor) a replacement for iPhone.
In 2007 Apple never touted the iPhone as a camera replacement or MP3 replacement.
It showed off its use case and the consumer's value proposition saw the iPhone as all they need for that use case.
But here we are 16+ years later with iPhones shipping nearly quarter billion units annually for a 8+ billion worldwide human population.
By 2040 will people still use the current smartphone form factor to call/text/video each other?
I get that you are looking at this from within the 1st 5-10 years but I have a longer view on it.
Visually they showed the functions of calls/text/FaceTime.
Arent those the core communication features of any smartphone?
1st year of iPhone & Vision Pro were released in countries with Apple's largest developer base like the US and I think the UK?
It was also bought by people who wanted to try it or did not know what to do with $3499.
Succeeding years it was released to other countries.
My interpretation of WWDC 2023 40+ min segment of the Vision Pro is that it is positioned to eventually obsolete almost all Apple's hardware.
For that to occur it needs to be priced within iPhone's $429-1599 by 2040.
Yea, absolutely this. It will never get close to iPhone success in the current form factor. At best, it’s potentially an iPad sized revenue stream.
I completely agree with everything else you said.
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Both statements do not need to exclusively correct.
IIRC China is Apple's largest market and yet no Visual Pro for them in year 1.
Yes but messaging and voice/video calls are not exclusive to phones. My iPad and Mac can both do this.
Bottom line, this thing is not designed to replace iPhone. It cannot fit into a pocket, it cannot last a day plus on battery and never will in the current form factor.
And absolutely no one, and I mean no one, is going to walk around in public with a headset of this type instead of a phone.
A far more likely scenario is that VP is the “at home“ device and they later come out with a much more cut-down product in form, features and power (such as glasses) which could be an iPhone replacement. These devices would be two distinct products and complement each other.