The new Mac mini is almost certainly coming

[staypuftforums]

Not seen someone mention M2 Pro for a while, so I'm just reminding everyone that I REALLY want an M2 Pro mini.

My uncle works at Apple. I’ll let him know.

 

[Neodym]

Exactly.

I remember when the excuse was "Apple is stuck waiting for Intel..."

Now what's the excuse?

🤣

To be fair: The global situation with Covid, interrupted supply chains etc. is definitely challenging and was not predictable.

And I guess that perfect storm is here to stay quite some more time (may even worsen, if e.g. TSMC might be affected by China wanting to “re-integrate” Taiwan by force).

 

[Maximara]

Exactly.

I remember when the excuse was "Apple is stuck waiting for Intel..."

Now what's the excuse?

🤣

Supply chains being turned into sludge by Covid and waiting for a more impressive base Mx chip (it seems the M2 wasn't quite up to what Apple wanted) come to mind.

 

[sublunar]

Supply chains being turned into sludge by Covid and waiting for a more impressive base Mx chip (it seems the M2 wasn't quite up to what Apple wanted) come to mind.

To be fair, in the existing Mac mini case, an M2 would not have heat/power consumption related battery life issues and actually has better single core performance, slightly better multi core, and notably improved graphics due to a couple extra cores along with Pro-Res encode support in hardware.

Aside from the likely (high) European price due to weak FX rates and relative lack of ports there's a lot going for it.

If it wasn't for the current deal that the M1 Pro powered laptops appear to be at the moment an M2 would be a decent deal for many in my opinion.

 

[EugW]

Aside from the likely (high) European price due to weak FX rates and relative lack of ports there's a lot going for it.

Interesting. Because of the sharp fall in the US dollar in the last couple of days, the Canadian dollar is now worth more in USD today than it was on Nov. 10, 2020, the day M1 made its debut two years ago.

This bodes well for pricing remaining the same in Canada come spring, and maybe pricing in Europe won’t be quite as bad as it could have been if this keeps up.

 

[reallynotnick]

notably improved graphics due to a couple extra cores along with Pro-Res encode support in hardware.

Don't forget the 50% improvement in memory bandwidth as that helps a ton with the GPU.

 

[Maximara]

Interesting. Because of the sharp fall in the US dollar in the last couple of days, the Canadian dollar is now worth more in USD today than it was on Nov. 10, 2020, the day M1 made its debut two years ago.

This bodes well for pricing remaining the same in Canada come spring, and maybe pricing in Europe won’t be quite as bad as it could have been if this keeps up.

The drop in the US dollar only matters if it is long term. Looking at the Canadian dollar over the last year it had been up and down in the 1.26 to 1.30 until Sept 2022 when it started to go up substantially. People are already predicting a resurgence of COVID which would cause major disruptions.

 

[sublunar]

The drop in the US dollar only matters if it is long term. Looking at the Canadian dollar over the last year it had been up and down in the 1.26 to 1.30 until Sept 2022 when it started to go up substantially. People are already predicting a resurgence of COVID which would cause major disruptions.

Whatever Apple are planning they'll be pricing all these factors into the exchange rate they decide at the time of release of any new products over the expected lifetime of that refresh. Already they'll be aware that refurbished products currently cost less because they were released at pre-crisis prices (when the only crisis was COVID with a side order of component shortages due to COVID).

Don't forget the 50% improvement in memory bandwidth as that helps a ton with the GPU.

Will need to see more benchmarks for specific workflows really. We can't really say for any specific person's needs whether or not M2 is a better deal for them than M1.

What will be a factor for everyone is this:

1. How long will Apple support M1 over M2? We already have a potential software support variance where the M1 MacBook Pro 13" is completely discontinued but the M1 MacBook Air isn't. What happens in 5 years time? Do Apple support the CPU whatever it's in or will M1 MacBook Pro 13" owners feel let down in 2028?

2. Price, especially for Europe and various territories in the rest of the world due to exchange rates. If average performance increases are 10-15% - what if it costs 10-15% more? Is it worth having the M1 over M2 if budget is an issue or are we going back to point 1 where your money will go further because an M2 product will get longer OS support?

 

[EugW]

Because Apple is still selling M1, I’m gonna guess M2 will get OS support for 1 more year, not necessarily two more years.

 

[grandoflex]

So, what are people's best guesses as to when the new Mac mini might actually come out? Are there particularly windows in the spring that Apple favours for new hardware releases? I'm hoping it will be March, as I can wait that long, though if it ends up being May or later I'll probably be wishing I'd bitten the bullet now on an M1...

 

[Boyd01]

"The next ‌Mac mini‌ is expected to launch at some point in 2023, likely early in the year."

Apple's Next Mac Mini Refresh: Everything We Know

Apple is working on updated versions of the Mac mini, and at least one of the Mac mini machines in the works is likely to replace the Intel version...

www.macrumors.com

 

[theluggage]

So, what are people's best guesses as to when the new Mac mini might actually come out?

Any time between next year and never. None of the rumours seem particularly compelling, and it's a long way from "Apple is working on" to "Apple is about to release".

Apple are still selling 2018 Intel Minis.

Before that, the Mini went 2014-2018 without an update.

It's never been Apple's top priority. The original M1 Mini was probably needed as a developer machine for the Apple Silicon transition (the A12 DTK being landfill as soon as the M1 processor was released). This thread is 746 pages long for a reason.

 

[EugW]

So, I've been watching used Mac Studio sales. One base model here in Canada just went for CA$1900. That doesn't seem bad considering they all still have some Apple warranty, and CA$1900 + shipping is only ~US$1450. However, looking at it another way, Apple Canada sells the base model on their edu store for CA$2249, which is only ~US$1695. IOW the discount from new edu to used pricing was only 14%. (Mac Studio is US$1799 edu in the US so edu pricing in Canada is also cheaper than edu pricing in the US.)

BTW, USB4/Thunderbolt 4 hubs finally can add actual Thunderbolt ports and are mostly in the CA$210-285 (US$160-215) range. These hubs take one Thunderbolt 4 port and convert that into 3 Thunderbolt 4 ports plus one USB-A port. Prior to Thunderbolt 4, most of the hubs converted 1 Thunderbolt 3 to 1 Thunderbolt 3 plus a bunch of USB-A ports.

It's looking more and more like I'm going to get a 24 GB M2 Mac mini (edu), probably with 512 GB storage, plus Thunderbolt 4 hub, unless I can get a good deal on a used Mac Studio, and assuming the M2 Pro Mac mini doesn't exist. Unless Apple Canada raises prices, that M2/24/512 SKU might go for CA$1529 / US$1150 edu.

 

[sublunar]

So, I've been watching used Mac Studio sales. One base model here in Canada just went for CA$1900. That doesn't seem bad considering they all still have some Apple warranty, and CA$1900 + shipping is only ~US$1450. However, looking at it another way, Apple Canada sells the base model on their edu store for CA$2249, which is only ~US$1695. IOW the discount from new edu to used pricing was only 14%. (Mac Studio is US$1799 edu in the US so edu pricing in Canada is also cheaper than edu pricing in the US.)

BTW, USB4/Thunderbolt 4 hubs finally can add actual Thunderbolt ports and are mostly in the CA$210-285 (US$160-215) range. These hubs take one Thunderbolt 4 port and convert that into 3 Thunderbolt 4 ports plus one USB-A port. Prior to Thunderbolt 4, most of the hubs converted 1 Thunderbolt 3 to 1 Thunderbolt 3 plus a bunch of USB-A ports.

It's looking more and more like I'm going to get a 24 GB M2 Mac mini (edu), probably with 512 GB storage, plus Thunderbolt 4 hub, unless I can get a good deal on a used Mac Studio, and assuming the M2 Pro Mac mini doesn't exist. Unless Apple Canada raises prices, that M2/24/512 SKU might go for CA$1529 / US$1150 edu.

I'm actually of the opinion that if you need more ports than a Mini and don't already have a Thunderbolt dock then the Mac Studio remains the better deal.

Periodically you can pick up a refurbished Mac Studio base model for £1799 in the UK which for me makes it look the better deal against current M1 refurbs if you need more ports and more than 16Gb RAM.

Any time between next year and never. None of the rumours seem particularly compelling, and it's a long way from "Apple is working on" to "Apple is about to release".

Apple are still selling 2018 Intel Minis.

Before that, the Mini went 2014-2018 without an update.

It's never been Apple's top priority. The original M1 Mini was probably needed as a developer machine for the Apple Silicon transition (the A12 DTK being landfill as soon as the M1 processor was released). This thread is 746 pages long for a reason.

Apple could easily keep the M1 mini around without a price change if they thought they needed a budget option round the world.

If they need to raise prices in Europe due to FX pressure then I would definitely want them to update it to the M2 like they did with the M2 MacBook Pro 13" - it would be a slap in the face to just unilaterally raise prices like they have done with the M1 iPad Air and iPad mini 6.

At least Apple put an M2 in the iPad Pro before they hiked the price on that in Europe.

Yes, there is serious evidence of Apple opting to leave the Mini untouched for years but they aren't waiting on Intel to produce a CPU to their liking. They will want to stop producing the M1 as they bring newer processors on stream.

 

[EugW]

I'm actually of the opinion that if you need more ports than a Mini and don't already have a Thunderbolt dock then the Mac Studio remains the better deal.

Periodically you can pick up a refurbished Mac Studio base model for £1799 in the UK which for me makes it look the better deal against current M1 refurbs if you need more ports and more than 16Gb RAM.

It depends on need and local pricing of course, but if my pricing scheme holds true, that means a Mac mini M2/24/512 + TB4 hub would be CA$1739 edu (US$1306) whereas Mac Studio would be $2249 edu (US$1689). One way of looking at it is that it’s only a US$383 difference but another way of looking at it is that it’s a 29% price difference.

But like I said, I’m keeping my eyes peeled for deals on the Mac Studio. Right now the Mac Studio refurb pricing here in Canada is exactly the same as edu pricing (for which I qualify) so there is no advantage to getting a refurb. Also, if I pay with my credit card I get an extra year of warranty, but this only is valid on new purchases. Refurbs don’t qualify for this credit card extended warranty, not even Apple refurbs.

 

[Maximara]

Any time between next year and never. None of the rumours seem particularly compelling, and it's a long way from "Apple is working on" to "Apple is about to release".

Apple are still selling 2018 Intel Minis.

Before that, the Mini went 2014-2018 without an update.

Given the mini is an entry level/transition Mac you wouldn't (or shouldn't) expect anything resembling a regular update schedule.

 

[reallynotnick]

Given the mini is an entry level/transition Mac you wouldn't (or shouldn't) expect anything resembling a regular update schedule.

Because the high end products like the Mac Pro have such a regular update schedule.

 

[Maximara]

Because the high end products like the Mac Pro have such a regular update schedule.

Interestingly if you go by Machine model (Macmini x; Macpro x,) both the Mini and the Mac Pro had a very aggressive update schedule until 2013/2014:

*Mini: PowerPC — Jan 11, 2005/July 26, 2005/Sept 27, 2005; Intel — Feb 28, 2006/Sept 6, 2006; Aug 7, 2007; March 3, 2009/Oct 20, 2009; June 15, 2010; July 20, 2011; Oct 23, 2012; Oct 16, 2014

*Mac Pro: Aug 7, 2006/April 4, 2007; Jan 8, 2008; March 3. 2009/Dec 4, 2009; July 27, 2010; June 11. 2012; Late 2013 (Trash can)

IIRC 2013/2014 was around the time Intel started having problems with meeting the times of their CPU roadmap and Skylake (2015) certainly didn't inspire confidence.

 

[CWallace]

@Maximara - *strong affirmative nod*

Intel started skipping CPU generations with the "B Model" 65W CPUs the Mac mini used so that inherently meant annual updates were not possible. Intel also started to make "Xeons for every occasion" because the high-end was where they were making the most profit which meant that those models also started to see slower refresh cycles as Intel was spreading itself thinner and thinner with so many models.

 

[Piggie]

I've not read all 750 posts on this topic so forgive me if this has already been said.
It's crossed my mind a few times. Given the M2 isn't exactly mind blowing when placed against an M1, and given the age of the M1 Mac Mini, do you think Apple will simply Skip M2 and go straight to M3 for the Mini?

If they put M2 in a new Mini next year then it's going to seem out of date VERY quickly isn't it when M3 arrives?

 

[gusping]

I've not read all 750 posts on this topic so forgive me if this has already been said.
It's crossed my mind a few times. Given the M2 isn't exactly mind blowing when placed against an M1, and given the age of the M1 Mac Mini, do you think Apple will simply Skip M2 and go straight to M3 for the Mini?

If they put M2 in a new Mini next year then it's going to seem out of date VERY quickly isn't it when M3 arrives?

Maybe they should just put an M2 Pro chip in a mini and be done with it....

 

[EugW]

I've not read all 750 posts on this topic so forgive me if this has already been said.
It's crossed my mind a few times. Given the M2 isn't exactly mind blowing when placed against an M1, and given the age of the M1 Mac Mini, do you think Apple will simply Skip M2 and go straight to M3 for the Mini?

IMHO, there is basically no chance chance the next Mac mini will be M3. In fact, I don't expect M3 until 2024.

And yes, M2 is only an incremental improvement over M1, but what do you expect? And for some of us the "incremental" improvement is actually kinda of a big deal. For me it's the option to get 24 GB RAM, and for others it's the hardware ProRes acceleration. For some video editor types, M2 can be almost twice as fast as M1 in some workloads.

If they put M2 in a new Mini next year then it's going to seem out of date VERY quickly isn't it when M3 arrives?

No. It's not as if you're buying a slow Intel machine now, and then 8 months later an Apple Silicon Mac comes out that's 3X as fast and is fanless.

BTW, 2020 Intel MacBook Air used pricing has dropped into the sewer. In contrast, 2020 M1 MacBook Air used pricing is often nearly twice as much. I just saw a 16 GB / 256 GB 2020 Intel MacBook Air with a few minor edge dents go for CA$445 / US$335 on eBay. In contrast, lightly scratched 16 GB / 256 GB 2020 AS MacBook Air went for CA$940 / US$708 a few days ago.

 

[Nicole1980]

Maybe they should just put an M2 Pro chip in a mini and be done with it....

Yes please. Let's get it done.

 

[sublunar]

IMHO, there is basically no chance chance the next Mac mini will be M3. In fact, I don't expect M3 until 2024.

And yes, M2 is only an incremental improvement over M1, but what do you expect? And for some of us the "incremental" improvement is actually kinda of a big deal. For me it's the option to get 24 GB RAM, and for others it's the hardware ProRes acceleration. For some video editor types, M2 can be almost twice as fast as M1 in some workloads.

And don't forget the extra 2 GPU cores for people who want that kind of performance - in video timeline rendering. Depending on the eventual price in Europe, an M2 mini would have all of that plus 2 more years support over an M1 mini.

It's crossed my mind a few times. Given the M2 isn't exactly mind blowing when placed against an M1, and given the age of the M1 Mac Mini, do you think Apple will simply Skip M2 and go straight to M3 for the Mini?

If they put M2 in a new Mini next year then it's going to seem out of date VERY quickly isn't it when M3 arrives?

The thought actually comes to mind that the M3 is the CPU that's been broadly linked to a move to the 3NM architecture which is meant to be a leap ahead for power consumption and battery life in laptops.

The power consumption bit isn't of interest for desktop users per se but in a mini it makes a significantly smaller enclosure with less beefy power supply (which is actually overdue since the M1 to be fair) feasible.

If Apple have decided to save some money and keep the existing 'classic' for the M2 generation perhaps the sea change will come with the M3.

And unlike Intel who publish roadmaps in advance (which then slip horribly ) we're left speculating on whether or not Apple are going to produce a CPU weblike based purely on their Ax phone CPU strategy.

 

[crowe-t]

So, what are people's best guesses as to when the new Mac mini might actually come out? Are there particularly windows in the spring that Apple favours for new hardware releases? I'm hoping it will be March, as I can wait that long, though if it ends up being May or later I'll probably be wishing I'd bitten the bullet now on an M1...

I'm starting to feel the same way.