Regarding all this VAT stuff, if a VAT increase in announced in the budget next Tuesday then I think it highly likely (see final paragraph) that the iPhone prices will go up but I also think it incredibly unlikely that it will affect anyone pre-ordering for June 24th.
Firstly, if it happens next Tuesday then it will be an announcement of a VAT increase. Many major retailers have gone on record as saying that they would understand and accept an increase provided they were given enough notice to make the change so the government will have been lobbied hard, and probably successfully, on the timing of any change. Because of this it is virtually inconceivable that the chancellor would stand up on Tuesday and say "from midnight tonight VAT is going up" (he does do this for alcohol, tobacco and fuel duty but that's far easier for retailers to adapt to without needing global changes to their accounting and point-of-sale systems). What is far more likely is that some weeks of warning will be given of a change.
Secondly, if the change does happen quickly then Apple and the networks have a way to protect customers at no cost to themselves. With my iPad I was invoiced a couple of days before delivery, when it was technically deemed to be "shipped". With VAT the critical date is not the date you pay Apple the money, it is the invoice date (except for a small company exemption to use cash accounting for VAT, something that Apple don't do, they use invoice-date accounting) so Apple (or the networks) could invoice on 22nd of June at which point they are under the rules of the current 17.5% VAT rate.
If/when VAT does eventually go up then in theory, for the sellers to recognise the same revenue, they need to increase retail prices (e.g. if they sell something for £117.50 rrp and VAT goes up to 20% then they need to re-price at £120 rrp in order to recognise the same £100 revenue on their books). This is why I think it is "highly likely" that if/when a VAT increase is implemented (again for emphasis, "implemented" not just "announced") the prices will go up. The only way they won't is if the sellers decide to absorb the cost themselves so, in the example above, keep the price at £117.50 but need to make the 20% VAT payment to HMRC so now only bank just under £97.92 themselves. This is the point where we might get an idea of how generous a margin there is in the channel on the iPhone 4.
- Julian