Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, January 2010

[rhett7660]

That is insane.. 40+ posts a day. Good lord!

 

[sushi]

That is insane.. 40+ posts a day. Good lord!

Yep, it's a high average post count.

Just think. If it takes 2 minutes per post, it would take almost an hour an a half each day of straight posting.

Or 11 hours per week.

 

[Doctor Q]

"End of Time" Top 50 Posters

Chart #3: "End of Time" Top 50 Posters

Computed by Doctor Q in January, 2010

Proj  Projection      Weighted  Cur   Delta  Last  Delta
Rank  End of Time       Rate    Rank  Rank   EOT    EOT
----  --------------  --------  ----  -----  ----  -----
  1   -aggie-           34.39   ---    ---   ---    ---
  2   jessica.          27.72    12    +10     5     +3
  3   Eidorian          17.10     4     +1     3      0
  4   iJohnHenry        16.31    44    +40     4      0
  5   alphaod           14.94    29    +24     2     -3
  6   r.j.s             14.28    50    +44    28    +22
  7   rdowns            12.88    17    +10     9     +2
  8   DoFoT9            12.64    46    +38    13     +5
  9   mkrishnan         10.94     2     -7     8     -1
 10   nanofrog          10.91   ---    ---   ---    ---
 11   sushi             10.24    27    +16    12     +1
 12   dukebound85       10.21    39    +27    15     +3
 13   bartelby          10.04    10     -3     7     -6
 14   robbieduncan       9.67    18     +4    10     -4
 15   Teh Don Ditty      9.46    41    +26    27    +12
 16   Abstract           9.25     7     -9     6    -10
 17   iBlue              9.16    15     -2    11     -6
 18   leekohler          8.42    49    +31    17     -1
 19   jmann              8.25   ---    ---   ---    ---
 20   Doctor Q           7.48     3    -17    19     -1
 21   SFStateStudent     7.42   ---    ---    21      0
 22   Jaffa Cake         7.40    23     +1    16     -6
 23   Consultant         7.08   ---    ---    26     +3
 24   yg17               7.07   ---    ---    42    +18
 25   TuffLuffJimmy      6.57   ---    ---   ---    ---

Proj  Projection      Weighted  Cur   Delta  Last  Delta
Rank  End of Time       Rate    Rank  Rank   EOT    EOT
----  --------------  --------  ----  -----  ----  -----
 26   iGary              6.52    11    -15    18     -8
 27   twoodcc            6.46    33     +6    25     -2
 28   raggedjimmi        6.45    19     -9    23     -5
 29   thegoldenmackid    6.19   ---    ---   ---    ---
 30   MacNut             5.96    26     -4    24     -6
 31   xUKHCx             5.74    38     +7    20    -11
 32   Blue Velvet        5.60     8    -24    14    -18
 33   edesignuk          5.42     9    -24    29     -4
 34   flopticalcube      4.64   ---    ---    35     +1
 35   MacDawg            4.61   ---    ---    50    +15
 36   ChrisA             4.48   ---    ---    34     -2
 37   Peace              4.42   ---    ---    43     +6
 38   clevin             4.04   ---    ---    32     -6
 39   SilentPanda        4.02   ---    ---   ---    ---
 40   Sun Baked          4.02    24    -16    37     -3
 41   PlaceofDis         4.00    14    -27    31    -10
 42   TheSpaz            3.94   ---    ---   ---    ---
 43   bigandy            3.92   ---    ---    30    -13
 44   Eraserhead         3.89   ---    ---    38     -6
 45   dejo               3.49   ---    ---   ---    ---
 46   WildCowboy         3.48    22    -24    36    -10
 47   wrldwzrd89         3.25   ---    ---    45     -2
 48   QCassidy352        3.24   ---    ---   ---    ---
 49   skunk              3.18   ---    ---    44     -5
 50   yellow             3.12    21    -29    47     -3

Columns:

1. Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
   
2. Projection End of Time = members with the 50 highest projected post counts as time goes to infinity, based on a computed post rate.
   
3. Weighted Rate = # posts per day by that member as a cascading weighted average, giving 50% weight to the most recent 6 months, 25% to the previous 6 months, 12.5% to the previous 6 months, and so on, with adjustments made based on the length of membership. See definition of weighted rate from July 2006.
   
4. Cur Rank = current rank, as of January 2010, or "---" for those who are not in the current Top 50.
   
5. Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank from now until the end of time.
   
6. Last EOT = rank in End of Time projections from 6 months ago (July 2009, Chart #3), or "---" for those who were not in the previous End of Time Top 50.
   
7. Delta EOT = change in rank from End of Time projection 6 months ago to End of Time projection now.

 

[Doctor Q]

Comments on the End of Time Projections

Compared to the standings as of today (in Chart #1, the Top 50 gets quite shaken up when projected infinitely into the future. We base all this on the shaky assumptions that all members will live forever and all will continue to post at their recent rates, but making these assumptions is what lets us have all this fun!

The Cur Rank and Delta Rank columns compare projected End of Time ranks with current forum ranks to track changes from now until forever. The Last EOT and Delta EOT columns allow us to compare the End of Time projections from 6 months ago to the End of Time projections now.

I've added another digit of precision to the Weighted Post Rate column this time due to the number of ties that show up when I use less precision.

Making headlines

Let's start with some controversy that's sure to interest the tabloid newspapers. The rules for Chart #3 are that the user must have been a forum member for at least 6 months, must be a member in good standing, and must not have a post rate that has signficant signs of slowing. These factors are always built into my formulas and spreadsheets. The rules had two big effects this time. First of all, the #1 End of Time poster from six months ago, Tallest Skil, is no longer a forum member, so his current post rate is 0.0 and he's not included at all in our charts.

Second, member -aggie- joined exactly 198 days before these measurements were taken. That's only 2 weeks over the (arbitrary) minimum to be counted. If the minimum had been 6.5 months he would have just gotten in. If the minimum had been 6.5 months plus a day he would not have qualified. Why do we have a cutoff at all? Because a member who joins on Monday and has 100 posts by Friday is very unlikely to keep up that pace (even if they don't get in trouble for spamming the forums). But a new member who makes a lot of posts every day for a year is more likely to stay around and continue their participation. I had to choose some cutoff point so I chose 6 months. Technically it's not a consistent measure since there are more days in the second 6 months of the year than in the first 6 months! Usually the exact cutoff isn't important, but this time it made a big difference by determining whether -aggie- would be #1 or completely excluded!

At the top

Most members have an overall post rate (since they joined) that differs from their post rate over the last 6 months. For -aggie- they are the same, and it's the highest rate among all members: 34.4 posts/day, or the equivalent of 1 post every 21 minutes for 12 hours each day. He's #1 in our End of Time list of top posters.

jessica. is #2, with 27.7 posts per day (1 post every 26 minutes for 12 hours per day). Her posting rate has increased each time we looked at a 6-month interval.

Six other members have post rates over a dozen posts/day: Eidorian (#3), iJohnHenry (#4), alphaod (#5), r.j.s (#6), rdowns (#7), DoFoT9 (#8)

mkrishnan (#9) and nanofrog (#10) round out the Top 10.

The only other members with more than 10 posts/day are sushi (#11), dukebound85 (#12), and bartelby (#13).

Leaders and followers

Measuring leads by absolute weighted post rate, we always find that the widest disparity is at the top of the list:

Biggest post rate lead: jessica. (#2) over Eidorian (#3) by 10.62 weighted posts per day

Next biggest:

-aggie- (#1) over jessica. (#2) by 6.67 weighted posts per day

DoFoT9 (#8) over mkrishnan (#9) by 1.70 weighted posts per day

r.j.s (#6) over rdowns (#7) by 1.41 weighted posts per day

iJohnHenry (#4) over alphaod (#5) by 1.37 weighted posts per day
​

All other leads are less than one weighted post per day.
​

Closest post rate finish: SilentPanda over Sun Baked by 0.001 weighted posts per day (1 post every 2.8 years!)

Next closest:

dejo over WildCowboy by 0.002 weighted posts per day (1 post every 13.6 months)
​

Just missed the Top 50: MisterMe, by 0.08 posts/day, or one post every 13 days. Chundles and Mitthrawnuruodo would have been next in line.

Changed members

Forty-two percent (21 of 50) of the Top 50 posters at the End of Time are not in the current Top 50:

-aggie-
nanofrog
jmann
SFStateStudent
Consultant
yg17
TuffLuffJimmy
thegoldenmackid
flopticalcube
MacDawg
ChrisA
Peace
clevin
SilentPanda
TheSpaz
bigandy
Eraserhead
dejo
wrldwzrd89
QCassidy352
skunk
​

They displace these 21 members who are projected to fall off the Top 50 list if you wait long enough:

mad jew
Mr. Anderson
jsw
~Shard~
wdlove
devilot
bousozoku
Mitthrawnuruodo
CanadaRAM
IJ Reilly
Nermal
eyelikeart
Rower_CPU
emw
Applespider
dmw007
Lau
vniow
Chundles
Queso
arn
​

The changes above reflect long-term participation that is growing or shrinking.

Changes in rank

Comparing today's Top 50 to the End of Time Top 50:

Highest projected rise in rank: r.j.s, up 44 slots, not a surprise given that his post rate over the past 6 months has more than doubled from the preceding 6 months.

Three other members are up 30 or more slots:

iJohnHenry, up 40 slots

DoFoT9, up 38 slots

leekohler, up 31 slots
​

These advances are much higher than we usually see.​

Highest projected loss in rank: yellow, down 29 slots, even though his post rate has remained consistently between 3 and 4 posts/day for the last year and a half. It just doesn't compare with the rates of others.

Next highest (those down 20 or more slots)

PlaceofDis, down 27 slots

WildCowboy and edesignuk and Blue Velvet, each down 24 slots
​

No members are projected to retain their current rank.

Changes in the Top 50 End of Time

This is a comparison of the End of Time projection from 6 months ago with the End of Time projection now. These measures help us identify newly arriving champs.

In the End of Time projections, we find 9 new members, two of them in the Top 10:

-aggie-
nanofrog
jmann
TuffLuffJimmy
thegoldenmackid
SilentPanda
TheSpaz
dejo
QCassidy352
​

That bumped these members from the End of Time list:

IJ Reilly
CalBoy
Lau
EricNau
jsw
Queso
LimeiBook86
Mitthrawnuruodo
​

Highest projected rise in rank: r.j.s, up 22 slots and into the Top 10

Next highest:

yg17, up 18 slots, into the Top 25

MacDawg, up 15 slots

Teh Don Ditty, up 12 slots, into the Top 25
​

Highest projected loss in rank while staying on the End-of-Time Top 50: Blue Velvet, down 18 slots and out of the Top 25

Next highest:

bigandy, down 13 slots

xUKHCx, down 11 slots

Abstract and WildCowboy and PlaceofDis, each down 10 slots
​

Three members are projected to retain their current rank:

Eidorian (#3)

iJohnHenry (#4)

SFStateStudent (#21)
​

Trivia

Among members projected to be in the End of Time Top 50, mkrishnan has the most current posts (27,629). He had this same distinction in the projections 6 months ago. Top 50 End-of-Timer SilentPanda has the fewest current posts (5,577).

Since six months ago, the IVG (Initial Vowel Group) gained -aggie- and lost EricNau and IJ Reilly, going from 10 to 9 members:

Abstract, -aggie-, alphaod, edesignuk, Eidorian, Eraserhead, iBlue, iGary, iJohnHenry​

The MATLOC (MAcrumors Three-LettOr Club) now consists of only one member: r.j.s

The number of Top 50 End-of-Time members whose user name ends with a digit has stayed steady at 5. Concidentally, the number 5 also ends in a digit!

The number of combined posts per minute for the entire Top 50 has stayed the same: one post every 3.5 minutes.

The Top 50 End-of-Time forum members have combined to make 615,560 posts to date, accounting for 6.8% (down from 7.5%) of the total 9 million forum posts. They will have a total of 1,047,994 posts when the world ends on December 21, 2012!

 

[iBlue]

A lot of long time members, especially those in the list, see it as a list of shame.

Indeed. Though it is very interesting and I love that Q does these.

 

[SilentPanda]

Closest post rate finish: SilentPanda over Sun Baked by 0.001 weighted posts per day (1 post every 2.8 years!)

What a slacker. Sun Baked you need to learn to keep up!

I'm actually surprised I even made the EOT list. I'm not a terribly prolific poster. For ever 3 posts I make there's probably 2 that I just closed the window... sometimes I type enough that I confuse myself and don't feel you guys need to be subjected to that too.

 

[Doctor Q]

I'm actually surprised I even made the EOT list.

Maybe your user name should be NoisyPanda.

I can't remember a post rate match as close as yours with Sun Baked. Congratulations to both of you!

 

[Eraserhead]

I can't believe I'm in the top 50 EOT when I keep dropping out of the standard top 50 .

 

[bartelby]

Indeed. Though it is very interesting and I love that Q does these.

It's all pretty cool.
Shame he doesn't do the charts jsw used to do...

 

[leekohler]

Good god, I could end up number 18 at the end of time?

 

[Teh Don Ditty]

It's really interesting when you see the numbers.

15th eh? Not too shabby if you ask me.

Thanks again for the stats, Doctor Q. A fun read as always.

 

[rdowns]

Damn unemployment. I know my post level will return to its norm if I ever find another job.

 

[bartelby]

Damn unemployment. I know my post level will return to its norm if I ever find another job.

Of course they will, you just keep telling yourself that!

 

[MacNut]

Damn unemployment. I know my post level will return to its norm if I ever find another job.

So does this mean you won't be looking for work.

 

[Eidorian]

There's almost always a shakeup in the end of time projections.

 

[MacNut]

There's almost always a shakeup in the end of time projections.

It better happen fast we only have 2 years left.

 

[GGJstudios]

Is there any ranking of top "posts per day" averages, irrespective of the total number of posts? Other than the top 50 or near-top 50?

 

[SilentPanda]

Is there any ranking of top "posts per day" averages, irrespective of the total number of posts? Other than the top 50 or near-top 50?

If you guys keep asking for miscellaneous stats, you'll drive Doctor Q into a stat crunching frenzy and I'm pretty sure it will negate his end of time stats as the world will implode.

 

[dmr727]

Very cool, Q! An impressive amount of work you've put into this.

 

[Clix Pix]

Fascinating reading, Doctor Q!!!!!! Now I'm dizzy, with all those numbers floating around.....

 

[GGJstudios]

If you guys keep asking for miscellaneous stats, you'll drive Doctor Q into a stat crunching frenzy and I'm pretty sure it will negate his end of time stats as the world will implode.

LOL! I wouldn't want to cause the end of the world before 2012! I also wouldn't ask for Doctor Q to waste his time digging up more stats. I just wondered if such info already existed, maybe in a thread I've missed when searching.

 

[r.j.s]

Highest projected rise in rank: r.j.s, up 44 slots, not a surprise given that his post rate over the past 6 months has more than doubled from the preceding 6 months.

What?! I should do more work ... Pffft. No way.

The MATLOC (MAcrumors Three-LettOr Club) now consists of only one member: r.j.s

How did that happen?

 

[-aggie-]

View attachment bullseye aggie2.bmp

 

[rdowns]

When you get to the top. we're going to start calling your -naggie-.

 

[rdowns]

How did that happen?

jsw is still there, even though he rarely posts these days.

The others have moved on (dcv, mpw, emw) and fallen off the top 50 list.