Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, January 2011

[Doctor Q]

This is the 16th edition of my semi-annual analysis of the MacRumors Top 50 Posters.

Previous "Top 50 Posters Extrapolated" threads:

2003: July
2004: January, July
2005: January, July
2006: January, July
2007: January, July
2008: January, July
2009: January, July
2010: January, July​

The legend of column headings follows each chart. My comments and analysis follow the charts. Measurements were taken on January 3rd.

Please remember that these charts and this thread are for general interest only. Please do not make posts simply to build your post count.

Chart #1: Current Top 50 Posters

Computed by Doctor Q in January, 2011

                      Cur     Cur   Prev  Delta
Rank  Current Top 50  Posts   Rate  Rank  Rank
----  --------------  ------  ----  ----  -----
  1   mad jew         32,206   0.0    1      0
  2   mkrishnan       28,910   0.6    2      0
  3   Doctor Q        27,634   6.7    3      0
  4   Eidorian        26,172   4.5    4      0
  5   jessica.        25,337  14.9    5      0
  6   Abstract        22,780   3.1    7     +1
  7   Mr. Anderson    22,550   0.2    6     -1
  8   jsw             22,130   0.0    8      0
  9   rdowns          21,464  10.7   10     +1
 10   Blue Velvet     21,436   5.9    9     -1
 11   robbieduncan    19,865   9.9   16     +5
 12   bartelby        19,682   1.2   11     -1
 13   iGary           19,383   1.7   13      0
 14   edesignuk       19,252   0.0   12     -2
 15   PlaceofDis      18,574   1.0   14     -1
 16   ~Shard~         18,282   0.0   15     -1
 17   iBlue           18,235   5.1   17      0
 18   Dagless         17,716   2.9   18      0
 19   wdlove          16,571   0.0   19      0
 20   DoFoT9          16,286  14.3   29     +9
 21   Jaffa Cake      15,943   4.6   22     +1
 22   yellow          15,892   0.7   20     -2
 23   devilot         15,586   0.0   21     -2
 24   sushi           15,267   5.6   26     +2
 25   MacNut          15,141   2.2   24     -1

                      Cur     Cur   Prev  Delta
Rank  Current Top 50  Posts   Rate  Rank  Rank
----  --------------  ------  ----  ----  -----
 26   WildCowboy      15,128   1.9   23     -3
 27   alphaod         15,006   6.0   28     +1
 28   Hellhammer      14,989  31.7  ---    ---
 29   Sun Baked       14,662   1.4   25     -4
 30   spinnerlys      14,339  26.2  ---    ---
 31   bousozoku       13,998   0.0   27     -4
 32   -aggie-         13,951  13.3   37     +5
 33   dukebound85     13,676   4.6   32     -1
 34   Nermal          13,375   2.3   31     -3
 35   Mitthrawnuruodo 13,248   1.0   30     -5
 36   twoodcc         13,241   3.4   33     -3
 37   Applejuiced     12,854  31.6  ---    ---
 38   iJohnHenry      12,629   6.6   39     +1
 39   CanadaRAM       12,335   0.1   34     -5
 40   IJ Reilly       12,268   0.0   35     -5
 41   GGJstudios      12,234  20.5  ---    ---
 42   leekohler       12,171   5.3   41     -1
 43   MacDawg         12,124  10.9  ---    ---
 44   xUKHCx          11,918   2.3   38     -6
 45   eyelikeart      11,894   0.0   36     -9
 46   Queso           11,591   3.9   45     -1
 47   r.j.s           11,354   5.4   50     +3
 48   Teh Don Ditty   11,228   1.7   44     -4
 49   Rower_CPU       11,211   0.0   40     -9
 50   miles01110      11,156   9.8  ---    ---

Columns:

1. Rank = Position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
   
2. Current Top 50 = members with the 50 currently highest post counts.
   
3. Cur Posts = # of posts by that member.
   
4. Cur Rate = average # posts per day by that member over the last 6 months, or for the length of their membership if they joined less than 6 months ago.
   
5. Prev Rank = previous rank, as of 6 months ago (July 2010), or "---" for those who are new to the Top 50.
   
6. Delta Rank = change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank since 6 months ago.

Other stats and charts:

Length of membership (the next post)
6-Month Projected Top 50 Posters (Chart #2)
"End of Time" Top 50 Posters (Chart #3)
​

 

[Doctor Q]

Length of membership

Mean average among posters in the Top 50: 74.9 months (6.24 years), up 2.3 months since last time. The average length of membership doesn't grow by 6 months every 6 months because the longest-term members aren't necessarily the highest posters.

Standard deviation: 25.6 (2.1 years)

eyelikeart, although inactive, becomes the first Top 50 forum member to reach 10 years of membership. He joined January 2, 2001, 2 days over a decade ago.

Among Top 50 posters, the users with the longest memberships are:

eyelikeart, 120 months (10.00 years)

Second-longest: Rower_CPU, 111 months (9.25 years)

Third-longest: Mr. Anderson, 110 months (9.18 years)
​

Among active members, MacNut has the longest membership: 108 months (9 years exactly as of today)

Shortest among active Top 50 members: -aggie-, 18.5 months (1.5 years). He held this distinction 6 months ago as well.

Second-shortest: Hellhammer, 24.8 months (2.1 years)
​

Although they didn't make the Top 50, it's worth noting that arn (user number 1) and chrberni (user number 2) are active users, although chrberni made only a couple of posts in 2009 and a couple in 2010.

The graph below shows the distribution of length of membership among the Top 50. The current distribution is in blue. The distribution from 6 months ago is in red. Almost two thirds (62%) of Top 50 members are now in the 5-to-7-year range or the 8-to-9-year range.

 

[Doctor Q]

Comments on the Current Top 50 Posters chart

Changed members

Six members joined the Top 50 list, none making the Top 25:

Hellhammer (#28)
spinnerlys (#30)
Applejuiced (#37)
GGJstudios (#41)
MacDawg (#43)​

Two members missed the Top 50 despite each having over 11,000 posts. They are in order from highest to lowest post count.

emw (was #42)
Peace (was #49)​

11 members missed the Top 50 but had 10,000 or more posts: Applespider, skunk, yg17, Chundles, dmw007, arn, Lau, vniow, wrldwzrd89, Eraserhead, nagromme

Changes in rank

Average change in rank of those remaining in the Top 50: -0.1

Highest rise in rank: DoFoT9, up 9 slots and into the Top 20, from #29 to #20. He also had the highest rise in rank from a year ago to six months ago (up 17 slots from #46 to #29).

Next highest:

tie: robbieduncan and -aggie- (up 5 slots)
r.j.s (up 3 slots)
​

The highest loss in rank was a 9-slot tie:

eyelikeart and Rower_CPU

Next highest:

xUKHCx (down 6 slots) -- administrators don't always have time to post!​

Down 3 slots:

Mitthrawnuruodo
CanadaRAM
IJ Reilly
​

A new record (10) for number of members retaining their position in the Top 50 list:

mad jew (#1 eight times in a row)
mkrishnan (#2 five times in a row)
Doctor Q (#3 five times in a row)
Eidorian (#4 three times in a row)
jessica. (#5 two times in a row)
jsw (#8 two times in a row)
iGary (#13 two times in a row)
iBlue (#17 two times in a row)
Dagless (#18 two times in a row)
wdlove (#19 two times in a row)
​

emw missed the Top 50 by 29 posts (0.16 posts per day, the equivalent of 1 post every 6.3 days).

Peace missed the Top 50 by 136 posts (0.74 posts per day, or 1 post every 1.4 days).​

Changes in the Top 10 and Top 25

There are usually changes to the order of the top-posting members over each 6-month period, but this time the Top 5 all stayed in position.

mad jew hasn't posted since September 4, 2008 but is still 3296 posts ahead of #2 mkrishnan. The gap continues to shrink.

Abstract has passed Mr. Anderson for the #6 spot, dropping Mr. Anderson to #7. rdowns and Blue Velvet have swapped places at #9 and #10, with rdowns now ahead.

DoFoT9 and sushi have joined the Top 25.

WildCowboy and Sun Baked have dropped out of the Top 25.

Post counts

The number of members with 20,000 or more posts rose from 9 to 10, as rdowns joined the group.

For the first time, everyone on the Top 50 has 11,000 or more posts. I predicted that it would take 10,972 posts to make the Top 50. The actual number is 11,156, so the threshold came in a bit higher.

Together, the Top 50 members have made a total of 834,874 posts at MacRumors (an average of 16,697 each). If you read 1 post every second 24 hours a day it would take you only 9 days and 16 hours to read them all. If you're a slower reader or need an occasional nap then you might need to allocate more time for the task.

Posts in the last 6 months

This section excludes members who were not on my radar screen 6 months ago since I didn't track their post histories. I try to spot up-and-coming posters who might join the Top 50 before the next 6-month period.

Highest number of posts in 6 months: Hellhammer, 5831 posts, 31.7 posts per day

Next-highest, in a photo finish:

Applejuiced, 5820 posts, 31.6 posts per day

Followed by:

spinnerlys, 4813 posts, 26.2 posts/day
GGJstudios, 3767 posts, 20.5 posts/day
​

They were the only members with over 3000 posts in 6 months.​

Four members had post counts between 2000 and 3000 in 6 months:

jessica. (2735 posts)
DoFoT9 (2625 posts)
-aggie- (2438 posts)
MacDawg (2002 posts, just enough to make this category)
​

My Predictions from 6 months ago

Here are my projections from 6 months ago, predicting today's rankings.

I was correct on 10 out of 10 predictions for the Top 10, although I had rdowns at #7 instead of #9.

I was correct on 47 out of 50 predictions for the Top 50. I had emw, Peace and yg17 in the Top 50 instead of Applejuiced, GGJstudios, and miles01110.

Excluded members and posts

MacRumors "bots" (members Macrumors, MacBytes, and DailyTunes) are excluded from my tracking. Members in temporary "time-out" status are still included but not members who have been banned.

If the MacBytes bot had been eligible, it would have ranked #23.

 

[MacDawg]

^^
Impressive work as always Q

Interesting read to see all of the trends

 

[Lord Blackadder]

Badges of honor or shame, as you prefer.

Ever since I joined I've maintained pretty much the same posts-per-day numbers, which I find interesting. A creature of habit.

 

[iGary]

I'm slacking, better hop on it.

 

[Jaffa Cake]

Badges of honor or shame, as you prefer.

They're losers, the lot of them.

Oh.

Nice work as ever, Doc.

 

[Hellhammer]

Damn, 150 posts and I would have made it to the top 25 Have to start posting more! Great job Q, like always.

 

[MacNut]

Among active members, MacNut has the longest membership: 108 months (9 years exactly as of today)

I forgot that today was my anniversary, damn 9 years.

 

[rdowns]

Nice work as always Doctor Q. So many long time members in the Top 50 who don't come around here no more.

Highest number of posts in 6 months: Hellhammer, 5831 posts, 31.7 posts per day
Next-highest, in a photo finish:
Applejuiced, 5820 posts, 31.6 posts per day

Followed by:
spinnerlys, 4813 posts, 26.2 posts/day
GGJstudios, 3767 posts, 20.5 posts/day

Definitely 12 step material there.

I forgot that today was my anniversary, damn 9 years.

Since pottery is the appropriate gift for 9 years, please expect my Chia Pet in the mail any day now.

 

[MacDawg]

Nice work as always Doctor Q. So many long time members in the Top 50 who don't come around here no more.

You are correct, and they are greatly missed
I especially miss jsw and devilot

For so long, the top 50 had posters so far ahead of everyone else
It seems like many of them have been in that category for so long without a single post

But now, there is a large group of active posters who are ascending the ranks rather quickly

 

[OutThere]

Badges of honor or shame, as you prefer.

Ever since I joined I've maintained pretty much the same posts-per-day numbers, which I find interesting. A creature of habit.

Yeah I've also been very steady at around 2 posts per day for most of my career here. I've perhaps been a bit higher in the past few months now that I'm out of college, where I had lots more going on and would go weeks without posting.

 

[Abstract]

Judging from my post rate, it appears that I'm less of a loser than before.


But I still moved up a rank.

 

[S.B.G]

It looks like a lot of work putting all of that information together. It's really cool to see statistics like that, good job!

 

[Doctor Q]

The fact that wdlove (who hasn't posted since March 18, 2007) stayed at the same rank is a sure sign that not much has changed in the Top 20. Those who have departed from the forums can still have long legacies!

By the way, how long would it really take somebody to read 834,874 posts? I don't have a good estimate of the average time it takes to read an average-size post.

 

[Lord Blackadder]

By the way, how long would it really take somebody to read 834,874 posts? I don't have a good estimate of the average time it takes to read an average-size post.

It depends on the post; are we talking about a rambling screed in the PRSI forums, or a snarky one-liner in the iWhatever forums?

 

[DoFoT9]

great results here Q.

i am glad to be in the top 25! my results would have been quite better if i had continuted to post in the previous 2 months of 2010 - had a few personal issues *makes up lame excuse for not having higher posts*.

predictions out soon?

 

[leekohler]

Thanks for posting the results, Q!

 

[Eidorian]

I haven't seen Peace since mid-2010. I still haven't bought that iPad either.

 

[GGJstudios]

Definitely 12 step material there.

Hello! I'm GGJstudios, and I'm a poster.

Thanks, Doctor Q, for your work!

 

[Cynicalone]

These numbers always surprise me.

I guess I just don't post much, but to get to 10,000 at my current post rate is going to take about another 8 years.

And that's wouldn't even get you in the top 50 anymore. Wow.

 

[rhett7660]

I love these threads. Thanks for posting!!!!

 

[Hellhammer]

I haven't seen Peace since mid-2010. I still haven't bought that iPad either.

He hasn't logged in since October 20th. Quite weird considering that he became a moderator less than a month before that. Do mods/Gods have some info why did he left?

 

[GGJstudios]

He hasn't logged in since October 20th. Quite weird considering that he became a moderator less than a month before that. Do mods/Gods have some info why did he left?

I also notice spinnerlys, who's usually very active almost every day, hasn't been on the site for over a month. Any one of us could stop posting on any given day, and no one would know why, unless there's personal contact outside the forum. I guess as "connected" as we are, we're still not.

 

[Hellhammer]

I also notice spinnerlys, who's usually very active almost every day, hasn't been on the site for over a month. Any one of us could stop posting on any given day, and no one would know why, unless there's personal contact outside the forum. I guess as "connected" as we are, we're still not.

I have noticed that too. I was just wondering as Peace used to be a moderator so he must have said something to the other mods/Gods, at least that he is going away.