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Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, January 2011
- Thread starter Doctor Q
- Start date
- Sort by reaction score
Don't worry. We've got at least a couple months before we have to worry about that!...
50 000 - i3
55 000 - i5
60 000 - i7
And then we run out of Intel CPUs.
Most likely after someone has more than 35 000 posts
35 000 - Core Solo (used in some Mac Minis)
40 000 - Core Duo
45 000 - Core 2 Duo
50 000 - i3
55 000 - i5
60 000 - i7
And then we run out of Intel CPUs
"Xeon" as user title wouldn't work pretty well because the CPUs used in 2006 Mac Pro were Xeons and the CPUs used in current Mac Pros are Xeons as well. Sure, it could go like Xeon 5100, 5300, 5400, 5500, 5600...
No rush.Don't worry. We've got at least a couple months before we have to worry about that!
"End of Time" Top 50 Posters
Chart #3: "End of Time" Top 50 Posters
Computed by Doctor Q in January, 2011
Columns:
Chart #3: "End of Time" Top 50 Posters
Computed by Doctor Q in January, 2011
Code:
Proj Projection Weighted Cur Delta Last Delta
Rank End of Time Rate Rank Rank EOT EOT
---- -------------- -------- ---- ----- ---- -----
1 Hellhammer 23.88 28 +27 3 +2
2 -aggie- 21.72 32 +30 1 -1
3 spinnerlys 20.25 30 +27 6 +3
4 jessica. 20.19 5 +1 2 -2
5 Applejuiced 20.17 37 +32 17 +12
6 GGJstudios 15.68 41 +35 10 +4
7 DoFoT9 15.15 20 +13 4 -3
8 rdowns 12.89 9 +1 5 -3
9 maflynn 12.11 --- --- --- ---
10 Surely 10.78 --- --- 26 +16
11 MacDawg 10.15 43 +32 14 +3
12 robbieduncan 9.92 11 -1 13 +1
13 jav6454 9.60 --- --- 23 +10
14 Eidorian 9.28 4 -10 7 -7
15 iJohnHenry 9.03 38 +23 9 -6
16 alphaod 8.82 27 +11 8 -8
17 nanofrog 8.57 --- --- 12 -5
18 miles01110 8.15 50 +32 28 +10
19 dukebound85 7.58 33 +14 11 -8
20 Doctor Q 7.44 3 -17 20 0
21 r.j.s 7.13 47 +26 16 -5
22 sushi 6.99 24 +2 19 -3
23 yg17 6.95 --- --- 15 -8
24 Consultant 6.82 --- --- 25 +1
25 dmr727 6.66 --- --- --- ---
Code:
Proj Projection Weighted Cur Delta Last Delta
Rank End of Time Rate Rank Rank EOT EOT
---- -------------- -------- ---- ----- ---- -----
26 leekohler 6.43 42 +16 22 -4
27 balamw 5.98 --- --- 48 +21
28 Peace 5.81 --- --- 21 -7
29 iBlue 5.77 17 -12 29 0
30 NT1440 5.36 --- --- --- ---
31 Jaffa Cake 5.35 21 -10 34 +3
32 dejo 5.26 --- --- 36 +4
33 flopticalcube 5.04 --- --- 31 -2
34 Kilamite 4.99 --- --- --- ---
35 TuffLuffJimmy 4.83 --- --- 24 -11
36 Dagless 4.76 18 -18 27 -9
37 Abstract 4.76 6 -31 30 -7
38 mkrishnan 4.66 2 -36 18 -20
39 AidenShaw 4.56 --- --- 42 +3
40 angelwatt 4.49 --- --- 47 +7
41 Blue Velvet 4.37 10 -31 --- ---
42 SilentPanda 4.18 --- --- 39 -3
43 twoodcc 4.12 36 -7 38 -5
44 Teh Don Ditty 3.92 48 +4 32 -12
45 bartelby 3.70 12 -33 33 -12
46 MisterMe 3.66 --- --- 46 0
47 MacNut 3.65 25 -22 37 -10
48 Queso 3.60 46 -2 50 +2
49 skunk 3.51 --- --- --- ---
50 xUKHCx 3.42 44 -6 40 -10- Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
- Projection End of Time = members with the 50 highest projected post counts as time goes to infinity, based on a computed post rate.
- Weighted Rate = # posts per day by that member as a cascading weighted average, giving 50% weight to the most recent 6 months, 25% to the previous 6 months, 12.5% to the previous 6 months, and so on, with adjustments made based on the length of membership. See definition of weighted rate from July 2006.
- Cur Rank = current rank, as of January 2011, or "---" for those who are not in the current Top 50.
- Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank from now until the end of time.
- Last EOT = rank in End of Time projections from 6 months ago (July 2010, Chart #3), or "---" for those who were not in the previous End of Time Top 50.
- Delta EOT = change in rank from End of Time projection 6 months ago to End of Time projection now.
Comments on the End of Time Projections
Compared to the current Top 50 (see Chart #1) the Top 50 changes quite a bit when projected infinitely into the future. This chart starts with the assumptions that all members will live forever, continuing to post at their recent rates. Despite the faults of these assumptions we get to do some amusing navel-gazing.
The Cur Rank and Delta Rank columns compare projected End of Time ranks with current forum ranks to track changes from now until forever. The Last EOT and Delta EOT columns allow us to compare the End of Time projections from 6 months ago to the End of Time projections now, since these tend to be a better basis for comparison than looking at current ranks.
At the top
Hellhammer leads the pack this time, taking over from -aggie-, who topped the list in our last two projections. -aggie- no longer maintains the 30+ posts/day habit from his first year of membership. He's down below 22 posts/day by weighted average so Hellhammer, currently our most freqent poster, edges him out with almost 24 weighted posts/day. Remember that weighted posts means a computed rate that balances past posting habits with current posting habits. For Hellhammer that means balancing his recent rate of 31.7 posts/day (over the last 6 months) with his rate of 16.1 posts/day over the preceding 6 months. His recent rate is equivalent to one post every 45 minutes and 26 seconds for 24 hours a day, or one post every 15 minutes and 9 seconds for 8 hours/day.
Three members are in range of Hellhammer's rate, with more than 20 weighted posts/day themselves.
There's a rate gap between the top 5 and the following 2, GGJstudios (#7) and DoFoT9 (#7) with rates between 15 and 16 weighted posts/day. After another rate gap we find rdowns (#8) and maflynn (#9) with rates between 12 and 13 weighted posts/day. Surely and MacDawg made between 10 and 11 weighted posts/day, but only Surely made the Top 10.
Despite the rates of these frequent posters, it takes only 24 weighted posts per week (not per day) to make the Top 50.
Leaders and followers
Leads by weighted post rate always show the widest disparity at the top of the list:
Biggest post rate lead: Applejuiced (#5) over GGJstudios (#6) by 4.49 weighted posts/day. That's only half the biggest lead from 6 months ago.
Closest post rate finish: Dagless over Abstract by 0.006 weighted posts/day (2.1 posts per year!)
Just missed the Top 50: aristobrat, by 0.099 weighted posts/day, or 1 post every 10 days. If Peace continues to be absent from the forums (as he has been recently) then aristobrat joins the Top 50.
Changed Top 50 membership
19 (38%) of the Top 50 posters at the End of Time are not in the current Top 50. Their post rates will eventually overtake all those with higher post counts but lower post rates.
Members of the End of Time Top 50 who are not in the current Top 50:
These users are active posters and members of the current Top 50 but didn't make the End of Time Top 50:
Getting there is half the fun
Comparing today's Top 50 to the End of Time Top 50:
Highest projected rise in rank: GGJstudios, up 35 slots
Highest projected loss in rank: mkrishnan, down 36 slots
No members are projected to retain their current rank. That's typical for this comparison since users are unlikely to rank the same by both post count and posting rate. Yet jessica., rdowns, and robbieduncan stayed within one position of their rank in the Current Top 50.
Changes in the Top 50 End of Time
This is a comparison of the End of Time projection from 6 months ago with the End of Time projection now. These measures help us identify newly arriving champs.
In the End of Time projections we find only 6 new members, which is less of a change than usual:
The 6 new members above bump these active members off the End of Time list:
Highest projected rise in rank: balamw, up 21 slots
Highest projected loss in rank while staying on the End of Time Top 50: mkrishnan, down 20 slots
Three members are projected to retain their current rank:
Should I be proud or ashamed that I'm the only user to keep my projected rank both this time and in the End of Time projections from 6 months ago?
Post counts
Among members projected to be in the End of Time Top 50, mkrishnan has the most current posts (28,910). He had this same distinction in the projections 6 months ago, 12 months ago, and 18 months ago. He's stuck in a rut!
Top 50 End of Timer Kilamite has the fewest current posts (6909).
Three users wouldn't make a Top 100 list as of today, based on post counts, but they each post frequently enough that they will eventually rise to the highest echelon -- the Top 50:
The Top 50 End of Time forum members have combined to make 682,820 posts to date, accounting for 5.9% of the total 11.7 million forum posts. That's the same percentage as 6 months ago.
Based on the data from 6 months ago, I predicted that the Top 50 would reach one million posts on January 12, 2013. Based on the data this time, the date has slipped to February 10, 2013. That gives rdowns 29 more days to prepare for the celebratory party at his house.
Club memberships
With aristobrat and iGary no longer in the End of Time list, the IVG (Initial Vowel Group) was reduced from 11 users to 9 users (back where it was a year ago). The remaining 9 are the same as last time. User names beginning with the letter A still dominent:
The MATLOC (MAcrumors Three-LettOr Club) has grown from 5 to 7 users. Members have either 3 letters in their user name or 3 capital letters in a mixed-case user name:
The Numb Club (users whose user name ends with a digit) has also grown from 5 to 7 club members:
Most useless fact
The highest rises in rank from the Top 50 End of Time projections 12 months ago to the Top 50 End of Time projections 6 months ago were for members who went up 21 slots (1st place) and 16 slots (2nd place). The highest rises in rank this time were also 21 slots and 16 slots!
Compared to the current Top 50 (see Chart #1) the Top 50 changes quite a bit when projected infinitely into the future. This chart starts with the assumptions that all members will live forever, continuing to post at their recent rates. Despite the faults of these assumptions we get to do some amusing navel-gazing.
The Cur Rank and Delta Rank columns compare projected End of Time ranks with current forum ranks to track changes from now until forever. The Last EOT and Delta EOT columns allow us to compare the End of Time projections from 6 months ago to the End of Time projections now, since these tend to be a better basis for comparison than looking at current ranks.
At the top
Hellhammer leads the pack this time, taking over from -aggie-, who topped the list in our last two projections. -aggie- no longer maintains the 30+ posts/day habit from his first year of membership. He's down below 22 posts/day by weighted average so Hellhammer, currently our most freqent poster, edges him out with almost 24 weighted posts/day. Remember that weighted posts means a computed rate that balances past posting habits with current posting habits. For Hellhammer that means balancing his recent rate of 31.7 posts/day (over the last 6 months) with his rate of 16.1 posts/day over the preceding 6 months. His recent rate is equivalent to one post every 45 minutes and 26 seconds for 24 hours a day, or one post every 15 minutes and 9 seconds for 8 hours/day.
Three members are in range of Hellhammer's rate, with more than 20 weighted posts/day themselves.
-aggie- (#2), spinnerlys (#3), jessica. (#4), Applejuiced (#5)
There's a rate gap between the top 5 and the following 2, GGJstudios (#7) and DoFoT9 (#7) with rates between 15 and 16 weighted posts/day. After another rate gap we find rdowns (#8) and maflynn (#9) with rates between 12 and 13 weighted posts/day. Surely and MacDawg made between 10 and 11 weighted posts/day, but only Surely made the Top 10.
Despite the rates of these frequent posters, it takes only 24 weighted posts per week (not per day) to make the Top 50.
Leaders and followers
Leads by weighted post rate always show the widest disparity at the top of the list:
Biggest post rate lead: Applejuiced (#5) over GGJstudios (#6) by 4.49 weighted posts/day. That's only half the biggest lead from 6 months ago.
Next biggest:
DoFoT9 (#7) over rdowns (#8) by 2.26 weighted posts/day
Hellhammer (#1) over -aggie- (#2) by 2.16 weighted posts/day
-aggie- (#2) over spinnerlys (#3) by 1.47 weighted posts/day
maflynn (#9) over Surely (#10) by 1.33 weighted posts/day
All other leads are less than one weighted post per day.Hellhammer (#1) over -aggie- (#2) by 2.16 weighted posts/day
-aggie- (#2) over spinnerlys (#3) by 1.47 weighted posts/day
maflynn (#9) over Surely (#10) by 1.33 weighted posts/day
Closest post rate finish: Dagless over Abstract by 0.006 weighted posts/day (2.1 posts per year!)
Next closest:
MisterMe over MacNut by 0.011 weighted posts/day (4.1 posts per year)
NT1440 over Jaffa Cake by 0.012 weighted posts/day (4.3 posts per year)
NT1440 over Jaffa Cake by 0.012 weighted posts/day (4.3 posts per year)
Just missed the Top 50: aristobrat, by 0.099 weighted posts/day, or 1 post every 10 days. If Peace continues to be absent from the forums (as he has been recently) then aristobrat joins the Top 50.
Lord Blackadder and JNB are next in line.
Changed Top 50 membership
19 (38%) of the Top 50 posters at the End of Time are not in the current Top 50. Their post rates will eventually overtake all those with higher post counts but lower post rates.
Members of the End of Time Top 50 who are not in the current Top 50:
maflynn -- Top 25!
Surely -- Top 25!
jav6454 -- Top 25!
nanofrog -- Top 25!
yg17
Consultant
dmr727
balamw
Peace
NT1440
dejo
flopticalcube
Kilamite
TuffLuffJimmy
AidenShaw
angelwatt
SilentPanda
MisterMe
skunk
Surely -- Top 25!
jav6454 -- Top 25!
nanofrog -- Top 25!
yg17
Consultant
dmr727
balamw
Peace
NT1440
dejo
flopticalcube
Kilamite
TuffLuffJimmy
AidenShaw
angelwatt
SilentPanda
MisterMe
skunk
These users are active posters and members of the current Top 50 but didn't make the End of Time Top 50:
iGary
Nermal
Sun Baked
WildCowboy
PlaceofDis
Mitthrawnuruodo
yellow
Nermal
Sun Baked
WildCowboy
PlaceofDis
Mitthrawnuruodo
yellow
Getting there is half the fun
Comparing today's Top 50 to the End of Time Top 50:
Highest projected rise in rank: GGJstudios, up 35 slots
Next highest (those up 30 or more slots):
Applejuiced and MacDawg and miles01110, each up 32 slots
-aggie-, up 30 slots
-aggie-, up 30 slots
Highest projected loss in rank: mkrishnan, down 36 slots
Next highest (those down 30 or more slots)
bartelby, down 33 slots
Abstract and Blue Velvet, each down 31 slots
Abstract and Blue Velvet, each down 31 slots
No members are projected to retain their current rank. That's typical for this comparison since users are unlikely to rank the same by both post count and posting rate. Yet jessica., rdowns, and robbieduncan stayed within one position of their rank in the Current Top 50.
Changes in the Top 50 End of Time
This is a comparison of the End of Time projection from 6 months ago with the End of Time projection now. These measures help us identify newly arriving champs.
In the End of Time projections we find only 6 new members, which is less of a change than usual:
maflynn (#9) -- Top 10!
dmr727 (#25)
NT1440 (#30)
Kilamite (#34)
Blue Velvet (#41)
skunk (#49)
Each of them has increased their post rate by at least 5.0 posts/day in the last 6 months compared to the preceding 6 months. Exception: skunk's posting rating has increased by only 0.5 posts/day, just enough to sneak into the Top 50.dmr727 (#25)
NT1440 (#30)
Kilamite (#34)
Blue Velvet (#41)
skunk (#49)
The 6 new members above bump these active members off the End of Time list:
aristobrat
iGary
thegoldenmackid
jmann
SFStateStudent
ChrisA
iGary
thegoldenmackid
jmann
SFStateStudent
ChrisA
Highest projected rise in rank: balamw, up 21 slots
Next highest: Surely, up 16 slots
Highest projected loss in rank while staying on the End of Time Top 50: mkrishnan, down 20 slots
Next highest:
Teh Don Ditty and bartelby, each down 12 slots
Three members are projected to retain their current rank:
Doctor Q (#20)
iBlue (#29)
MisterMe (#46)
iBlue (#29)
MisterMe (#46)
Should I be proud or ashamed that I'm the only user to keep my projected rank both this time and in the End of Time projections from 6 months ago?
Post counts
Among members projected to be in the End of Time Top 50, mkrishnan has the most current posts (28,910). He had this same distinction in the projections 6 months ago, 12 months ago, and 18 months ago. He's stuck in a rut!
Top 50 End of Timer Kilamite has the fewest current posts (6909).
Three users wouldn't make a Top 100 list as of today, based on post counts, but they each post frequently enough that they will eventually rise to the highest echelon -- the Top 50:
NT1440 (#30)
Kilamite (#34)
SilentPanda (#42)
The number of combined posts per minute for the entire Top 50 dropped from one post every 3.42 minutes to one post every 3.49 minutes. Even with 500 new threads appearing in the forums every day, we apparently can't find as much to talk about.Kilamite (#34)
SilentPanda (#42)
The Top 50 End of Time forum members have combined to make 682,820 posts to date, accounting for 5.9% of the total 11.7 million forum posts. That's the same percentage as 6 months ago.
Based on the data from 6 months ago, I predicted that the Top 50 would reach one million posts on January 12, 2013. Based on the data this time, the date has slipped to February 10, 2013. That gives rdowns 29 more days to prepare for the celebratory party at his house.
Club memberships
With aristobrat and iGary no longer in the End of Time list, the IVG (Initial Vowel Group) was reduced from 11 users to 9 users (back where it was a year ago). The remaining 9 are the same as last time. User names beginning with the letter A still dominent:
Abstract, -aggie-, AidenShaw, alphaod, angelwatt, Applejuiced, Eidorian, iBlue, iJohnHenry
The MATLOC (MAcrumors Three-LettOr Club) has grown from 5 to 7 users. Members have either 3 letters in their user name or 3 capital letters in a mixed-case user name:
dmr727*, DoFoT9, GGJstudios, jav6454*, r.j.s, Teh Don Ditty, TuffLuffJimmy
* = new to the club
* = new to the club
The Numb Club (users whose user name ends with a digit) has also grown from 5 to 7 club members:
dmr727*, DoFoT9, dukebound85, jav6454, miles01110, NT1440*, yg17
* = new to the club
* = new to the club
Most useless fact
The highest rises in rank from the Top 50 End of Time projections 12 months ago to the Top 50 End of Time projections 6 months ago were for members who went up 21 slots (1st place) and 16 slots (2nd place). The highest rises in rank this time were also 21 slots and 16 slots!
Oops, sorry - a copy/paste error. It's rdowns who joined the 20K+ group. I fixed the post.
How have I only dropped 1 place?
thank god...
I've met robbieduncan and he's no rdowns.
thank god...
Don't worry. We've got at least a couple months before we have to worry about that!
You never know if mad jew comes back, then MR might run out of user titles
Q, I thought you admins had hands full of real work to do? Great job, as usual, these are always so interesting
tap
tap
tap
Here you go red, save carpal tunnel, for future annoyances.
I understand that there is no forever, but 15th. OMG, kill me now.
Yup. But there are only a few hundred users desperate for help with registration or forum problems whose anguished pleas I've ignored for days. I'm sure that every one of them understood that they simply weren't a priority when there were numbers to crunch.
To be honest, I'm surprised I don't see more [WW] players in the Top 50. LOL
Cool. Hellhammer will be immortal-- just like his avatar!
Cool. Hellhammer will be immortal-- just like his avatar!
I believe those threads get wastelanded when done, and those posts don't count in the user's total
I'll probably post more, but I really don't get much chance at work.
I haven't posted Out Here in quite a while because of a part-time job with a fruit company.
I haven't posted Out Here in quite a while because of a part-time job with a fruit company.
I hadn't noticed that, although the move makes sense.
/slaps forehead, "couldahadaV8" style
thanks again Doctor Q. i look forward to these every 6 months now.
and hey, this time i'm a stat!
and hey, this time i'm a stat!
POWER7 chips should be after the i7
But not used by Apple
But not used by Apple
no durr
i wish apple decided to change back, imagine the bragging rights!
PC: hello mac, i have a quad core machine and 8GB RAM!
Mac: hello PC, i have 256 threads and 32GB RAM in built
now running fullscreen iPhoto is SUPER snappy!
Oooh, The Thread of Shame again!
Thank goodness. As you can see, I don't need a bigger post count.
Always fun to see these, Q. Thanks.
Thank goodness. As you can see, I don't need a bigger post count.
Always fun to see these, Q. Thanks.