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Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, January 2011

Hellhammer said:
He hasn't logged in since October 20th. Quite weird considering that he became a moderator less than a month before that. Do mods/Gods have some info why did he left?
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Too many people drop off of here. My activity is drastically down but I'm still here. :eek:

GGJstudios said:
I also notice spinnerlys, who's usually very active almost every day, hasn't been on the site for over a month. Any one of us could stop posting on any given day, and no one would know why, unless there's personal contact outside the forum. I guess as "connected" as we are, we're still not.
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You'd notice spinnerlys go nuts like madjew did with trying to help everyone. Nothing like that lately but you notice it in Forum Spy.
 
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Hellhammer said:
He hasn't logged in since October 20th. Quite weird considering that he became a moderator less than a month before that. Do mods/Gods have some info why did he left?
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Im not sure it's their place to say. If Peace wanted us to know he would of posted. It does seem odd though.

Great work as always Doctor Q. Looking forward to the other graphs when you have finished computing them.
 
renewed said:
This blows my mind that people get those high of posts.

Even more so without them being spam posts. :D
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I used to say the same thing. Then it was 6 years later and I was on the list. How the people who post 20, 25, 30 times a day do it is beyond me.
 
Thanks Q. I always enjoy reading your semi-annual stats post. :)

Cynicalone said:
These numbers always surprise me.

I guess I just don't post much, but to get to 10,000 at my current post rate is going to take about another 8 years. :D

And that's wouldn't even get you in the top 50 anymore. Wow.
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I've got 15.2 years more to go to hit 10,000 .... sigh.

(Well, now I have one less post to go....)
 
We or I keep in touch with some of the users who no longer post, including some of the moderators you don't see around. Peace didn't give me a message to share but I think I can say that he's enjoying the peace of the real world and is always welcome around here as well.

I suspect that the people who post 20, 25, 30 times a day have a lot of fun here and that's the simple reason for their habit. They also have no assigned duties that use up their time at MR (that's why some of the admins/mods post less than you'd expect) and they don't spend hours and hours composing a single post full of silly statistics, as I tend to do. :eek:
 
iJohnHenry said:
They usually have "issues" :rolleyes:, or an agenda.

Take your pick.
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So which was it for you, when you posted 24 times on Dec. 28th, or 31 times on Dec. 24th?

I just counted and see that I've made 20 posts today (this one makes 21). I invite you to read the posts I've made today and see if you find evidence of either an agenda or "issues" in my posting, because I have neither.

The fact is, some of us are either more willing or able to respond to more questions that people post. If anyone chooses to lurk in the forums or post sparingly, that's absolutely fine. I'm not going to criticize or belittle anyone for posting infrequently. In the same way, I won't criticize those who post more frequently.
 
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rdowns said:
I used to say the same thing. Then it was 6 years later and I was on the list. How the people who post 20, 25, 30 times a day do it is beyond me.
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It's actually pretty easy if you get in some of the ongoing threads like the various sports threads like the college football, NFL, the "other football" :) etc. On a busy day like an NFL Sunday or college Saturday, it's easy to get into a discussion of the day's events with lots of posts.
 
6-Month Projections

Chart #2: 6-Month Projected Top 50 Posters

Computed by Doctor Q in January 2011

Code: 
Proj  Projection      Proj    Cur   Delta
Rank  Jul 4, 2011     Posts   Rank  Rank
----  --------------- ------  ----  -----
  1   mad jew         32,206    1      0
  2   mkrishnan       29,028    2      0
  3   Doctor Q        28,849    3      0
  4   jessica.        28,042    5     +1
  5   Eidorian        26,995    4     -1
  6   rdowns          23,411    9     +3
  7   Abstract        23,347    6     -1
  8   Mr. Anderson    22,591    7     -1
  9   Blue Velvet     22,514   10     +1
 10   jsw             22,130    8     -2
 11   robbieduncan    21,669   11      0
 12   Hellhammer      20,757   28    +16
 13   bartelby        19,909   12     -1
 14   iGary           19,686   13     -1
 15   edesignuk       19,253   14     -1
 16   iBlue           19,160   17     +1
 17   spinnerlys      19,100   30    +13
 18   DoFoT9          18,882   20     +2
 19   PlaceofDis      18,747   15     -4
 20   Applejuiced     18,611   37    +17
 21   ~Shard~         18,282   16     -5
 22   Dagless         18,248   18     -4
 23   Jaffa Cake      16,781   21     -2
 24   wdlove          16,571   19     -5
 25   -aggie-         16,363   32     +7
Code: 
Proj  Projection      Proj    Cur   Delta
Rank  Jul 4, 2011     Posts   Rank  Rank
----  --------------- ------  ----  -----
 26   sushi           16,284   24     -2
 27   alphaod         16,106   27      0
 28   yellow          16,014   22     -6
 29   GGJstudios      15,960   41    +12
 30   devilot         15,586   23     -7
 31   MacNut          15,539   25     -6
 32   WildCowboy      15,465   26     -6
 33   Sun Baked       14,917   29     -4
 34   dukebound85     14,522   33     -1
 35   MacDawg         14,104   43     +8
 36   bousozoku       13,998   31     -5
 37   twoodcc         13,851   36     -1
 38   iJohnHenry      13,823   38      0
 39   Nermal          13,800   34     -5
 40   Mitthrawnuruodo 13,427   35     -5
 41   leekohler       13,129   42     +1
 42   miles01110      12,942   50     +8
 43   CanadaRAM       12,357   39     -4
 44   r.j.s           12,344   47     +3
 45   xUKHCx          12,339   44     -1
 46   Queso           12,296   46      0
 47   IJ Reilly       12,268   40     -7
 48   Surely          12,174  ---     ---
 49   eyelikeart      11,894   45     -4
 50   yg17            11,767  ---     ---
Columns:
  1. Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
  2. Projection Jul 4, 2011 = members with the 50 highest projected post counts based on current post count and rate for the last 6 months.
  3. Proj Posts = projected # of posts by that member.
  4. Cur Rank = current rank, as of January 2011 (see Chart #1 above), or "---" for those who are not in the current Top 50.
  5. Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank over the next 6 months.
 
Comments on the 6-Month Projections

I made the chart in the previous post by extrapolating member post counts 6 months into the future, based on current post counts (excluding forums that don't count) and post rates over the last 6 months. That's why I create these threads, for the thrill of making the projections and seeing how they turn out.

The results shown here are only estimates because members' posting habits evolve, some speeding up and some slowing down. Sometimes new members appear who I hadn't realized were approaching the Top 50, although it's getting a lot harder to fool me than in the good old days. I can spot users who are inching up the rankings and it's now very hard to get near the Top 50 in a short amount of time. Big Brother Doctor Q is watching you! :eek:

Changed members

A mere two members are projected to join the Top 50, both near the bottom of the list:
Surely (#48)
yg17 (#50)
​

Two members near the bottom of the current Top 50 are projected to drop off the list in the next 6 months:
Teh Don Ditty (currently #48)
Rower_CPU (currently #49)
​

Member closest to but not in the Top 50:

Peace missed the Top 50 by 100 posts (0.55 posts/day, or 1 post every 1.8 days) -- the race is usually closer than this

Next closest:
skunk -- by 167 posts (0.91 posts/day)
Teh Don Ditty -- by 233 posts (1.26 posts/day)
jav6454 -- by 246 posts (1.33 posts/day)
​
No other members were within 500 posts of the Top 50. Poor arn missed by 1087 posts.​

Changes at the top

According to these projections, the Top 3 won't change at all: mad jew, mkrishnan, and Doctor Q. The Top 10 will still have the same users, but in a different order. jessica will nudge past Eidorian into the #4 spot. rdowns will pass Abstract, Mr. Anderson, and jsw, making him #6. Blue Velvet will also pass jsw, moving her up one to #9, leaving jsw at #10.

Calling the race

Largest margin of victory: Eidorian (#5) over rdowns (#6) by 3584 posts. In the projections six months ago, the largest margin was also #5 over #6.
Next largest:
mad jew over mkrishnan by 3178 posts
Dagless over Jaffa Cake by 1467 posts
jessica. over Eidorian by 1047 posts
​
No other margin is more than 1,000.
​

Smallest margin of victory: r.j.s over xUKHCx by 5 posts
Next smallest:
CanadaRAM over r.j.s by 13 posts

The hardest fought battles were for positions #43, #44, and #45!

Least interesting stat: twoodcc beat iJohnHenry by the same margin by which Queso beat IJ Reilly (28 posts).
​

Highest projected rise in rank: Applejuiced, up 17 slots from #37 to #20.
Next highest:
Hellhammer, up 16 slots to #12
spinnerlys, up 13 slots to #17
GGJstudios, up 12 slots to #29
​
No other increases were in double digits.
​

Highest projected loss in rank: devilot and IJ Reilly, each down 9 slots (to #30 and #47)
Next highest:
yellow, MacNut, and WildCowboy, each down 6 slots
~Shard~, wdlove, bousozoku, Nermal, and Mitthrawnuruodo, each down 5 slots
​
In addition to the Top 3, these 4 members are projected to hold their current rank:
robbieduncan (#11)
alphaod (#27)
iJohnHenry (#38)
Queso (#46)
​

Excluded and inactive members

MacRumors "bots" (members Macrumors, MacBytes, and DailyTunes) and banned members are excluded from my tracking. Members in time-out are still eligible. If the MacBytes bot had been eligible, it would have ranked #30.

9 members (18%) of the projected Top 50 have made fewer than 10 posts in the last 6 months:
mad jew (#1)
jsw (#10)
edesignuk (#15)
~Shard~ (#21)
wdlove (#24)
devilot (#30)
bousozoku (#36)
IJ Reilly (#47)
eyelikeart (#49)
​
Notably absent from the "absent" list: Mr. Anderson. Those of you who frequent the Mac Pro forum might have noticed his posts in 2010.

Post counts

According to these projections, by July 4 there will have been 888,036 total posts by the Top 50 members, 55,209 more posts than those 50 members have today. Surprisingly, that's 5872 more posts in 6 months than the same statistic from the projections 6 months ago. Posting rates are up!

The average Top 50 member will have 17,761 posts total, having made 1104 posts (6.0 posts/day) in the 6 months between now and July. That's half a post per day more than in the projections 6 months ago, again showing increased activity among the projected Top 50 members.

It is projected to take 11,767 posts to make the Top 50 (currently it's 11,156).

The following 5 members are projected to have 11,000 or more posts without making the Top 50:
Peace, skunk, Teh Don Ditty, jav6454, Rower_CPU, emw​

Useless Trivia

Member whose post count is closest to their member number: mad jew (user #31961) with 32206 posts (difference of 245). Since he never posts he keeps winning in this category!
Second closest: Nermal (user #13233) with 13,800 posts (difference of 567). He came in second last time too. Believe it or not, ~Shard~, in third place with a difference of 845, will eventually beat Nermal because Nermal's difference goes up each time he posts while the margin for inactive ~Shard~ is static.

Least close: -aggie- (user #329797) with 16,363 posts (difference of 313,435). He's got a big lead on everyone else, but his margin is shrinking. Check back in a century or two.
​

The envelope please

-aggie- wins the Prime Mover Contest as the only projected Top 50 user with a prime number of posts: 16,363.

The winner of the Apple Pi Contest, for having the slot-number to length-of-user-name ratio that is closest to pi:
Dagless (the familiar ratio 22/7, or 3.14)​

Each 6 months the member in slot 42 of the projected Top 50 is declared the Oracle Who Knows the Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything. Congratulations, miles01110!
 
Doctor Q said:
Each 6 months the member in slot 42 of the projected Top 50 is declared the Oracle Who Knows the Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything. Congratulations, miles01110!
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We're never going to hear the end of that :D
 
GGJstudios said:
I also notice spinnerlys, who's usually very active almost every day, hasn't been on the site for over a month. Any one of us could stop posting on any given day, and no one would know why, unless there's personal contact outside the forum. I guess as "connected" as we are, we're still not.
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i miss spinners to be honest, he was always beating me to the first post of threads ;)
 
DoFoT9 said:
HAHA yup it was often us 3 posting the exact same thing ;)
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Hey, you forgot me! :p I kinda miss him even though I didn't know him that well. I have to agree with you GGJ, we always post(ed) the same things, it is/was just a matter of your fingers' speed :D
 
Hellhammer said:
Hey, you forgot me! :p I kinda miss him even though I didn't know him that well. I have to agree with you GGJ, we always post(ed) the same things, it is/was just a matter of your fingers' speed :D
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hahaha you werent really in the timezone i was in, so the posts were staggered - youve taken my spot for now ;)
 
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