Comments on the 6-Month Projections
I made the chart in the previous post by extrapolating member post counts 6 months into the future, based on current post counts (excluding forums that don't count) and post rates over the last 6 months. That's why I create these threads, for the thrill of making the projections and seeing how they turn out.
The results shown here are only estimates because members' posting habits evolve, some speeding up and some slowing down. Sometimes new members appear who I hadn't realized were approaching the Top 50, although it's getting a lot harder to fool me than in the good old days. I can spot users who are inching up the rankings and it's now very hard to get near the Top 50 in a short amount of time. Big Brother Doctor Q is watching you!
Changed members
A mere two members are projected to join the Top 50, both near the bottom of the list:
Surely (#48)
yg17 (#50)
Two members near the bottom of the current Top 50 are projected to drop off the list in the next 6 months:
Teh Don Ditty (currently #48)
Rower_CPU (currently #49)
Member closest to but not in the Top 50:
Peace missed the Top 50 by 100 posts (0.55 posts/day, or 1 post every 1.8 days) -- the race is usually closer than this
Next closest:
skunk -- by 167 posts (0.91 posts/day)
Teh Don Ditty -- by 233 posts (1.26 posts/day)
jav6454 -- by 246 posts (1.33 posts/day)
No other members were within 500 posts of the Top 50. Poor
arn missed by 1087 posts.
Changes at the top
According to these projections, the Top 3 won't change at all:
mad jew,
mkrishnan, and
Doctor Q. The Top 10 will still have the same users, but in a different order.
jessica will nudge past
Eidorian into the #4 spot.
rdowns will pass
Abstract,
Mr. Anderson, and
jsw, making him #6.
Blue Velvet will also pass
jsw, moving her up one to #9, leaving
jsw at #10.
Calling the race
Largest margin of victory:
Eidorian (#5) over
rdowns (#6) by 3584 posts. In the projections six months ago, the largest margin was also #5 over #6.
Next largest:
mad jew over mkrishnan by 3178 posts
Dagless over Jaffa Cake by 1467 posts
jessica. over Eidorian by 1047 posts
No other margin is more than 1,000.
Smallest margin of victory:
r.j.s over
xUKHCx by 5 posts
Next smallest:
CanadaRAM over r.j.s by 13 posts
The hardest fought battles were for positions #43, #44, and #45!
Least interesting stat: twoodcc beat iJohnHenry by the same margin by which Queso beat IJ Reilly (28 posts).
Highest projected rise in rank:
Applejuiced, up 17 slots from #37 to #20.
Next highest:
Hellhammer, up 16 slots to #12
spinnerlys, up 13 slots to #17
GGJstudios, up 12 slots to #29
No other increases were in double digits.
Highest projected loss in rank:
devilot and
IJ Reilly, each down 9 slots (to #30 and #47)
Next highest:
yellow, MacNut, and WildCowboy, each down 6 slots
~Shard~, wdlove, bousozoku, Nermal, and Mitthrawnuruodo, each down 5 slots
In addition to the Top 3, these 4 members are projected to hold their current rank:
robbieduncan (#11)
alphaod (#27)
iJohnHenry (#38)
Queso (#46)
Excluded and inactive members
MacRumors "bots" (members
Macrumors,
MacBytes, and
DailyTunes) and banned members are excluded from my tracking. Members in time-out are still eligible. If the
MacBytes bot had been eligible, it would have ranked #30.
9 members (18%) of the projected Top 50 have made fewer than 10 posts in the last 6 months:
mad jew (#1)
jsw (#10)
edesignuk (#15)
~Shard~ (#21)
wdlove (#24)
devilot (#30)
bousozoku (#36)
IJ Reilly (#47)
eyelikeart (#49)
Notably absent from the "absent" list:
Mr. Anderson. Those of you who frequent the Mac Pro forum might have noticed his posts in 2010.
Post counts
According to these projections, by July 4 there will have been 888,036 total posts by the Top 50 members, 55,209 more posts than those 50 members have today. Surprisingly, that's 5872 more posts in 6 months than the same statistic from the projections 6 months ago. Posting rates are up!
The average Top 50 member will have 17,761 posts total, having made 1104 posts (6.0 posts/day) in the 6 months between now and July. That's half a post per day more than in the projections 6 months ago, again showing increased activity among the projected Top 50 members.
It is projected to take 11,767 posts to make the Top 50 (currently it's 11,156).
The following 5 members are projected to have 11,000 or more posts without making the Top 50:
Peace, skunk, Teh Don Ditty, jav6454, Rower_CPU, emw
Useless Trivia
Member whose post count is closest to their member number:
mad jew (user #31961) with 32206 posts (difference of 245). Since he never posts he keeps winning in this category!
Second closest: Nermal (user #13233) with 13,800 posts (difference of 567). He came in second last time too. Believe it or not, ~Shard~, in third place with a difference of 845, will eventually beat Nermal because Nermal's difference goes up each time he posts while the margin for inactive ~Shard~ is static.
Least close: -aggie- (user #329797) with 16,363 posts (difference of 313,435). He's got a big lead on everyone else, but his margin is shrinking. Check back in a century or two.
The envelope please
-aggie- wins the Prime Mover Contest as the only projected Top 50 user with a prime number of posts: 16,363.
The winner of the Apple Pi Contest, for having the slot-number to length-of-user-name ratio that is closest to pi:
Dagless (the familiar ratio 22/7, or 3.14)
Each 6 months the member in slot 42 of the projected Top 50 is declared the
Oracle Who Knows the Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything. Congratulations,
miles01110!