Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, July 2006

[Mitthrawnuruodo]

[teaser]The biggest excitement has been the competition for the #9 spot on the End of Time Top 50 List. Stay tuned.[/teaser]

I hope to finish my analysis and post the results tomorrow evening. Publish or perish, as they say.

Cannot wait... the excitement is just too much... statistics rule...

Though personally I'm more interested to see if I'm mad enough to "compete" for a spot in the Top 25...

 

[Applespider]

I've got my new formulas in place and I've been working on the End of Time projections all evening. My largest spreadsheet is now over 200 rows and over 50 columns (that's 10,000 cells!) and I've had to cool my CPU by trucking in liquid nitrogen and buying popsicles. (The popsicles are for me.)

Hah... I'm currently running an Excel spreadsheet that goes to 27,000 rows and to column CF (84 columns)... with multiple lookups, IFs, SUMIFs and QUARTILE calculations and IT wonder why I want a more powerful computer.

 

[PlaceofDis]

Excel Scares me personally.

but i'm on good terms with Word.

 

[Veldek]

Hah... I'm currently running an Excel spreadsheet that goes to 27,000 rows and to column CF (84 columns)... with multiple lookups, IFs, SUMIFs and QUARTILE calculations and IT wonder why I want a more powerful computer.

Ah, this reminds me of my diploma paper where I did calculations in Excel on my iMac DV SE 400. I can't remember how big the spreadsheets were exactly (must have been huge though), but when I finally started the calculations, it took my iMac several hours (!) to complete them. This was one of my little free days while working on this paper...

Excel Scares me personally.

but i'm on good terms with Word.

I, on the other hand, like Excel because it's quite capable. But I HATE Word. It never does what I want it to do.

 

[dmw007]

I've got my new formulas in place and I've been working on the End of Time projections all evening. My largest spreadsheet is now over 200 rows and over 50 columns (that's 10,000 cells!) and I've had to cool my CPU by trucking in liquid nitrogen and buying popsicles. (The popsicles are for me.)

[teaser]The biggest excitement has been the competition for the #9 spot on the End of Time Top 50 List. Stay tuned.[/teaser]

I hope to finish my analysis and post the results tomorrow evening. Publish or perish, as they say.

Looking forward to seeing this report.


How much did that liquid nitrogen cost you to cool your computer?

 

[PlaceofDis]

I, on the other hand, like Excel because it's quite capable. But I HATE Word. It never does what I want it to do.

i can appreciate the capabilities that Excel has, but numbers and spreadsheets are just foreign to me. and i stay away.

writing and all that yummy stuff is my area of fun.

whatever floats your boat.... floats it.

 

[dmw007]

i can appreciate the capabilities that Excel has, but numbers and spreadsheets are just foreign to me. and i stay away.

Same here, I prefer to let others use Excel- but I can use it if need be.

 

[kretzy]

I'm curious Doctor Q, do you get all of the data you use directly from MR by going through everyone's profiles or is there some special way you can collect all of the data?

 

[iGary]

I'm curious Doctor Q, do you get all of the data you use directly from MR by going through everyone's profiles or is there some special way you can collect all of the data?

Oh, good morning, SpamBot™.

 

[kretzy]

Oh, good morning, SpamBot™.

Good evening Pot

I resent that.

 

[dmw007]

I'm curious Doctor Q, do you get all of the data you use directly from MR by going through everyone's profiles or is there some special way you can collect all of the data?

Good question max_altitude, I have often wondered this myself.

Surely Doctor Q must have some sort of contraption to get his statistics- it would take forever to do this sort of thing manually (although, Doctor Q may be super human and capable of this sort of thing).

 

[emw]

I'm curious Doctor Q, do you get all of the data you use directly from MR by going through everyone's profiles or is there some special way you can collect all of the data?

I believe he's stated in the past that the server logs this information for him, although I'm sure there's a fair bit of manual rearranging to do to get it into the format he wants - certain time frames, etc.

 

[Doctor Q]

"End of Time" Top 50 Posters

Computed by Doctor Q on July 6, 2006

Proj  Projection       Weight  Cur   Delta
Rank  End of Time      Rate    Rank  Rank
----  --------------   -----   ----  -----
  1   mad jew          28.51     3     +2
  2   iGary            18.70    10     +8
  3   jsw              16.23     8     +5
  4   ~Shard~          16.09     7     +3
  5   devilot          13.75    35    +30
  6   mkrishnan        12.93    12     +6
  7   yellow           12.90    15     +8
  8   Doctor Q         12.39     4     -4
  9   2nyRiggz         11.05   ---    ---
 10   CanadaRAM        11.04    32    +22
 11   dmw007           10.74    50    +39
 12   Blue Velvet      10.55    19     +7
 13   katie ta achoo   10.28    47    +34
 14   Mitthrawnuruodo  10.08    26    +12
 15   Lacero           10.04    28    +13
 16   Chundles          9.91   ---    ---
 17   Applespider       9.76    30    +13
 18   Abstract          9.68    18      0
 19   clayj             9.22    41    +22
 20   emw               9.15    31    +11
 21   eva01             8.79   ---    ---
 22   raggedjimmi       8.68    45    +23
 23   bousozoku         8.35    11    -12
 24   Chip NoVaMac      8.24    21     -3
 25   lilstewart        8.24   ---    ---

 26   PlaceofDis        8.23    23     -3
 27   EricNau           7.72   ---    ---
 28   ITASOR            7.42   ---    ---
 29   iMeowbot          7.39    38     +9
 30   edesignuk         7.28     5    -25
 31   iBlue             7.05   ---    ---
 32   Nermal            6.68    17    -15
 33   nagromme          6.44    33      0
 34   vniow             6.28    22    -12
 35   Mr. Anderson      6.24     1    -34
 36   GFLPraxis         5.92   ---    ---
 37   Hector            5.75    43     +6
 38   grapes911         5.70    48    +10
 39   Counterfit        5.57    39      0
 40   max_altitude      5.43   ---    ---
 41   robbieduncan      5.23   ---    ---
 42   zelmo             4.99   ---    ---
 43   SiliconAddict     4.52    42     -1
 44   Platform          4.43   ---    ---
 45   Mechcozmo         4.39    44     -1
 46   Sun Baked         4.34    16    -30
 47   Jaffa Cake        4.29   ---    ---
 48   iGAV              4.26    27    -21
 49   maya              4.04   ---    ---
 50   jelloshotsrule    4.00    14    -36

Columns:

1. Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
   
2. Projection End of Time = members with the 50 highest projected post counts as time goes to infinity, based on a computed post rate.
   
3. Weight Rate = # posts per day by that member as a cascading weighted average, giving 50% weight to the most recent 6 months, 25% to the previous 6 months, 12.5% to the previous 6 months, and so on.
   
4. Curr Rank = current rank, as of July 2006, or "---" for those who are not in the current Top 50.
   
5. Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank from now until the end of time.

 

[Doctor Q]

Comments on the Computations

--- New formula ---

Compared to my End of Time projections last January and in previous years, these End of Time projections were much harder to compute. I based these rankings on a new formula: a weighted post rate computed for each member as follows:

weighted post rate = average(A,average(B,average(average(C,...average(Y,Z)...))))
where

A is the post rate over the most recent 6-month period
B is the post rate over the 2nd-most recent 6-month period
C is the post rate over the 3rd-most recent 6-month period
...
Y is the post rate over the 2nd-least recent 6-month period
Z is the post rate over the least recent 6-month period and any partial 6-month period before it​

I also described the new method in a previous post.

Why such a complicated formula? Because it reflects all previous posts, while giving more importance to the most recent posting rate and the least importance to the oldest posting rates. That's why I'm more confident about these extrapolations and pleased with them than I've been in the past.

It's true that a post made 350 days ago will be considered to be of equal importance with one made 360 days ago, while a post made 370 days ago will be considered to be only half as important, but that's due to the nature of my data, which tracks post counts only in 6-month intervals, making the computation a type of step function.

--- Qualification and disqualification ---

To be included, each member was required to pass three tests:

Test 1: They must have been a member at least 6 months.

Test 2: Their post recent 6-month post rate must be at least 10% of their overall rate since joining. Otherwise, I consider them "inactive" or at least "decelerating" members.

Test 3. The member must be in good standing - no banned or unregistered members.
​

In this report, no members were disqualified by Test 1 or Test 3.

Test 2, intended to root out less active members, disqualified wdlove, who would otherwise have been #32.

One member slipped by Test #2: Lacero was projected to be the #1 End of Time poster a mere 6 months ago and still has a 6-month post rate (since January 2006) of 2.09 posts/day, a long-term rate (since joining) of 12.54 posts/day, and a weighted post rate of 10.04. However, Lacero hasn't posted since January 20, 2006 and would be considered "inactive" by common sense. Since my spreadsheets use formulas that only simulate common sense, Lacero remains on the list.

I decided not to include an additional test where each member would have to answer three questions asked by a troll living under the bridge.

 

[Doctor Q]

Comments on the End of Time Projections

--- At the Top ---

As expected, mad jew tops the End of Time projections, with a weighted post rate (28.51 post/day) that is 50% higher than #2 iGary, at 18.70 posts/day. Next are the two members with weighted post rates in the 16 to 17 posts/day range: #3 jsw and #4 ~Shard~, followed by the 12 to 14 posts/day crowd: #5 devilot, #6 mkrishnan, #7 yellow, and that Doctor Q fellow at #8.

The competition (if you could call it that) for 9th place was a thrilling photo finish, between #9 2nyRiggz and #10 CanadaRAM. CanadaRAM has been a member over 20 months, almost exactly twice as long as 2nyRiggz. In the last 6 months, CanadaRAM has had the higher post rate, 12.88 posts/day to 2nyRiggz's 11.05 posts/day. Using higher precision and averaging CanadaRAM's 12.8840 with his 9.1938 weighted average from the past produces a weighted average of 11.0389. Meanwhile, by my formula for members of less than a year, 2nyRiggz's weighted average is equal to his overall average of 11.0473. So 2nyRiggz wins the #9 spot by 0.0084 posts/day, or about 1 post every 4 months! (Of course, if I had taken my measurements an hour earlier or an hour later, the results might have been different!)

Big leads (over 10% over the next in line): mad jew has a 52% lead over iGary, ~Shard~ 17% over devilot, iGary 15% over jsw, Doctor Q 12% over 2nyRiggz, and zelmo 10.5% over SiliconAddict.

Mr. Anderson, still #1 in post count, who once had a post rate of 17.19 posts/day, has had a steadily dropping weighted average, which would have been 10.97 a year ago and 8.23 six months ago. It is now 6.24, dropping him to #35 in the End of Time projection.

--- Changed members ---

Compared to the Top 50 today, the End of Time Top 50 is vastly different.

Fourteen members (the same count as six months ago!) are projected to join the Top 50 list:
2nyRiggz (#9), Chundles (#16), eva01 (#21), lilstewart (#25), EricNau (#27), ITASOR (#28), iBlue (#31), GFLPraxis (#36), max_altitude (#40), robbieduncan (#41), zelmo (#42), Platform (#44), Jaffa Cake (#47), maya (#49)

Fourteen members projected to fall off the current Top 50 list:
wdlove, eyelikeart, Rower_CPU, jefhatfield, MacBandit, MrMacman, scem0, arn, iJon, shadowfax, rainman::|:|, wrldwzrd89, AlphaTech, Backtothemac

Despite the (wacky) new formula, Abstract (#18), nagromme (#33), and Counterfit (#39) are projected to retain their same positions.

Member projected to miss staying in the Top 50 list by a mere 0.0933 posts/day (one post every 10 days): puckhead193

--- Changes in rank ---

Highest projected rise in rank:
dmw007, up an amazing 39 slots, from last place to one short of the Top 10

Next highest:
katie ta achoo, up 34 slots
devilot, up 30 slots
raggedjimmi, up 23 slots
CanadaRAM and clayj, each up 22 slots

Highest projected loss in rank:
jelloshotsrule, down 36 slots into last place

Next highest:
Mr. Anderson, down 34 slots
Sun Baked, down 30 slots
edesignuk, down 25 slots
iGAV, down 21 slots

Special mention:
Platform is not currently in the Top 100, but is projected to be #44 in the End of Time list. A similar prediction was made for Platform 6 months ago.

--- What if ---

A good way to evaluate my new weighted post rate formula is to compare the results above with those I would have gotten using the metrics I have used in the past.

If End of Time rankings had been determined by each member's overall post rate since joining MacRumors, the following members would lead the rankings with over 10 posts/day each:

#1 mad jew
#2 devilot
#3 jsw
#4 iGary
#5 Mr. Anderson
#6 Lacero
#7 wdlove
#8 2nyRiggz
#9 mkrishnan
#10 dmw007
#11 katie ta achoo
#12 ~Shard~
#13 Blue Velvet​

It's mostly a shuffling of the same members, but the inclusion of Mr. Anderson and the high ranking of Lacero and wdlove shows the over-reliance on posts from the past.

If End of Time rankings had been determined by each member's post rate only over the last 6 months, the following members would lead the rankings with over 10 posts/day each:

#1 mad jew
#2 iGary
#3 jsw
#4 ~Shard~
#5 yellow
#6 mkrishnan
#7 Doctor Q
#8 devilot
#9 CanadaRAM
#10 Applespider
#11 Abstract
#12 Mitthrawnuruodo
#13 2nyRiggz
#14 Blue Velvet
#15 dmw007
#16 bousozoku
#17 vniow
#18 eva01​

The list is longer than the previous one because the number of members having high post rates has increased over time. In comparison with rankings by weighted post rate, the Top 4 remain mad jew, iGary, jsw, and ~Shard~ and the rest are also familiar names. bousozoku, who has had a noticeably higher post rate in the last 6 months, moves up, and CanadaRAM stays safely ahead of 2nyRiggz.

--- Trivia ---

U.S. or U.K. residency is not a requirement to be a top poster at MacRumors.

One female member is in the Top 10, 4 in the Top 20, and 6 in the Top 50.

The total number of posts by the combined Top 50 members at the End of Time will be... oh come on, you should know the answer to this one without my having to say it!

 

[iGary]

*trips JSW with leg*

 

[skunk]

He does go on, doesn't he?

 

[Mitthrawnuruodo]

Computed by Doctor Q on July 6, 2006

Proj  Projection       Weight  Cur   Delta
Rank  End of Time      Rate    Rank  Rank
----  --------------   -----   ----  -----
 14   Mitthrawnuruodo  10.08    26    +12

Oh, bugger... I had hoped I was a bit lower on the list than that...

I need a life...

However, Lacero hasn't posted since January 20, 2006 and would be considered "inactive" by common sense. Since my spreadsheets use formulas that only simulate common sense, Lacero remains on the list.

Just as well... Lacero and common sense never was much of a match, anyway...

 

[applemacdude]

So much math o.o


well im not on the top 50 anymore... meh

 

[Jaffa Cake]

47 on the end o' time list. Blimey.

At least I have something resembling a life at the moment.

 

[w_parietti22]

thats all I have to say...

 

[robbieduncan]

Oh Yes! I make the all time top 50. I rule. Or something

 

[Blue Velvet]

I decided not to include an additional test where each member would have to answer three questions asked by a troll living under the bridge.

Hence the obvious flaws in your projections. Your entire edifice is built on shifting sands... I mean, how on earth can we take this seriously now? I demand a recount... bring forth the troll.

 

[Mord]

sweet, though i'll probably make it under 30 over the summer, it's where the bulk of my posts lye. unless i get a proper full time job.

 

[Doctor Q]

So many questions

Hah... I'm currently running an Excel spreadsheet that goes to 27,000 rows and to column CF (84 columns)... with multiple lookups, IFs, SUMIFs and QUARTILE calculations and IT wonder why I want a more powerful computer.

Let's see, how many cells is that? 27,000 x 84 is, um, er, that's too hard a math problem for me.

Excel Scares me personally.

but i'm on good terms with Word.

For me it's the reverse. I dislike Word and find so much of it counterintuitive, even after years of use, that I avoid it when I can.

On that topic, I once read a very interesting article in a computer journal about how Excel could be extended to support user-defined functions in a way that would match Excel users' expectations very naturally, by letting them use a named worksheet in a spreadsheet as if it were a built-in function. For example, if you made a worksheet named Myfunction that takes numbers in the top left cells and uses formulas to compute some result in the bottom right, you could use the expression Myfunction(value1,value2,...) elsewhere in the spreadsheet and it would use the same formulas, as if Myfunction was part of Excel's function library.

How much did that liquid nitrogen cost you to cool your computer?

I don't know. I told them to put it on arn's credit card and didn't look at the bill.

I'm curious Doctor Q, do you get all of the data you use directly from MR by going through everyone's profiles or is there some special way you can collect all of the data?

For the first few times, I gathered the stats one member at a time, copying/pasting by hand from the forum's Top Posters page and from profile pages. Now instead of copying and pasting I use a program that I wrote to extract the numbers from that page and from profile pages. In other words, I get a web page, throw out the bad part (words), and keep the good part (numbers), and then I can import the result into Excel.

Surely Doctor Q must have some sort of contraption to get his statistics

I've asked Q Division for the thing I really need to make it easier: an 8-day week.

I believe he's stated in the past that the server logs this information for him, although I'm sure there's a fair bit of manual rearranging to do to get it into the format he wants - certain time frames, etc.

I get all information from the same public pages you can look at. I've been doing these stats since before I was a moderator and then an administrator, so I didn't have access to any server data or private information, and I still don't use any.