Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, July 2012

Discussion in 'Community Discussion' started by Doctor Q, Jul 4, 2012.

  1. Doctor Q, Jul 4, 2012
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2012

    Doctor Q Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #1
    This is the 19th edition of my semi-annual analysis of the MacRumors Top 50 Posters.

    Previous "Top 50 Posters Extrapolated" threads:
    2003: July
    2004: January, July
    2005: January, July
    2006: January, July
    2007: January, July
    2008: January, July
    2009: January, July
    2010: January, July
    2011: January, July
    2012: January

    The legend of column headings follows each chart. Measurements were taken yesterday (July 3rd).

    These charts and this thread are for general interest only and not meant to encourage posting to build post counts. Shame on you for even thinking of such a thing!


    Chart #1: Current Top 50 Posters

    Computed by Doctor Q in July 2012

    Code:
                          Cur     Cur   Prev  Delta
    Rank  Current Top 50  Posts   Rate  Rank  Rank
    ----  --------------  ------  ----  ----  -----
      1   mad jew         32,199   0.0    1      0
      2   Doctor Q        30,773   3.2    2      0
      3   GGJstudios      30,390  39.1    8     +5
      4   mkrishnan       29,749   0.8    3     -1
      5   jessica.        29,700   8.7    4     -1
      6   Eidorian        28,026   2.6    5     -1
      7   rdowns          25,584   5.1    6     -1
      8   Abstract        24,005   1.7    7     -1
      9   robbieduncan    23,042   3.2   10     +1
     10   Mr. Anderson    22,550   0.0    9     -1
     11   jsw             22,143   0.0   11      0
     12   Blue Velvet     21,817   0.0   12      0
     13   Applejuiced     21,809  13.4   16     +3
     14   Hellhammer      21,273   2.7   13     -1
     15   bartelby        19,775   0.2   14     -1
     16   iGary           19,583   0.0   15     -1
     17   edesignuk       19,259   0.0   17      0
     18   Dagless         19,179   2.0   20     +2
     19   PlaceofDis      19,146   1.8   19      0
     20   iBlue           19,143   0.9   18     -2
     21   Jaffa Cake      18,335   3.9   22     +1
     22   ~Shard~         18,318   0.2   21     -1
     23   miles01110      18,212  13.9   28     +5
     24   DoFoT9          17,113   0.4   23     -1
     25   alphaod         16,651   4.0   27     +2
    Code:
                          Cur     Cur   Prev  Delta
    Rank  Current Top 50  Posts   Rate  Rank  Rank
    ----  --------------  ------  ----  ----  -----
     26   wdlove          16,571   0.0   24     -2
     27   -aggie-         16,458   6.3   32     +5
     28   MacNut          16,362   2.4   26     -2
     29   iJohnHenry      16,104   6.1   34     +5
     30   yellow          16,015   0.1   25     -5
     31   dukebound85     15,693   4.3   35     +4
     32   MacDawg         15,681   3.5   33     +1
     33   sushi           15,618   0.2   30     -3
     34   devilot         15,591   0.0   29     -5
     35   WildCowboy      15,429   0.4   31     -4
     36   maflynn         15,308  15.4   46    +10
     37   simsaladimbamba 14,806  31.0   ---   ---
     38   Sun Baked       14,663   0.0   36     -2
     39   Nermal          14,583   1.7   37     -2
     40   Surely          14,528   6.4   42     +2
     41   r.j.s           14,277   6.8   43     +2
     42   twoodcc         14,194   2.1   39     -3
     43   balamw          14,173   8.4   44     +1
     44   bousozoku       13,998   0.0   38     -6
     45   Peace           13,996   9.4   48     +3
     46   leekohler       13,914   2.4   41     -5
     47   Mitthrawnuruodo 13,558   0.0   40     -7
     48   yg17            12,701   3.1   50     +2
     49   IJ Reilly       12,663   2.2   49      0
     50   xUKHCx          12,588   0.0   45     -5
    Columns:
    1. Rank = Position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
    2. Current Top 50 = members with the 50 currently highest post counts.
    3. Cur Posts = # of posts by that member.
    4. Cur Rate = average # posts per day by that member over the last 6 months, or for the length of their membership if they joined less than 6 months ago.
    5. Prev Rank = previous rank, as of 6 months ago (January 2012), or "---" for those who are new to the Top 50.
    6. Delta Rank = change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank since 6 months ago.

    Observations
    • simsaladimbamba is new to the Top 50.
    • CanadaRAM has dropped off the Top 50.
    • GGJstudios has passed mkrishnan, jessica., Eidorian, rdowns, and Abstract.
    • The five highest posters in the last 6 months were GGJstudios (7124 posts), simsaladimbamba (5643 posts), maflynn (2797 posts), miles01110 (2523 posts), and Applejuiced (2438 posts).
    • Nobody new has broken into the Top 10.
    • Nobody new has broken into the Top 20.
    • Two members broke into the Top 25: miles01110 and alphaod.

    Other stats and charts

     
  2. Doctor Q, Jul 4, 2012
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2013

    Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #2
    Years of membership

    Let's see how long our Top 50 forum members have been at MacRumors. The Top 5 have now been members over a decade, while simsaladimbamba has been here only 1.6 years.

    Years of Membership

    click for the full-size graph

    120703-years-of-membership.png
     
  3. Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #3
    Changes in rank

    This graph shows who has moved up and who has fallen behind. Seven of the Top 50 members stayed at the same rank as 6 months ago.

    Increase (or decrease) in rank

    click for the full-size graph

    120703-increase-in-rank.png
     
  4. Jaffa Cake macrumors Core

    Jaffa Cake

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2004
    Location:
    The City of Culture, Englandshire
    #4
    Smart work as ever, Doc.

    Mind, as I noted in the last extrapolation thread...

    Sure enough – I'm 21. :D

    This is like that episode of Star Trek: The Next Generation when the Enterprise gets stuck in a time loop and keeps getting destroyed. This probably means that Doctor Q is actually Kelsey Grammer.

    Here's to position 23 in six months time! :)
     
  5. Abstract macrumors Penryn

    Abstract

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2002
    Location:
    Location Location Location
    #5
    I'm easily swayed. You put up more charts than ever, so I'm more impressed than ever, even before I look at them. ;)


    Maybe it's just me, but I feel like most of the Top 50 posters don't post much anymore. I don't remember seeing post rates this low overall.

    This is even more true of the Top 25. I never see GGJStudios, same with AppleJuiced, so there are ~5 names in the Top 25 who I frequently see.
     
  6. -aggie- macrumors P6

    -aggie-

    Joined:
    Jun 19, 2009
    Location:
    Where bunnies are welcome.
    #6
    So, GGJStudios should be passing mad jew in about two months. That's going to be a sad day.:(
     
  7. 184550 Guest

    Joined:
    May 8, 2008
    #7
    I've been keeping an eye for this, I enjoy looking at the stats.

    You say it like it's a bad thing... :p ;)
     
  8. Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
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    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #8
    The rate has fluctuated. It's actually up during the first half of this year compared to the second half of last year.

    The Top 50 (whose composition changes each time) made
    • 47731 posts from July 2010 to January 2011
    • 40644 posts from January 2011 to July 2011
    • 34488 posts from July 2011 to January 2012
    • 40005 posts from January 2012 to July 2012
     

    Attached Files:

  9. Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
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    #9
    You are definitely a steady participant, although your post rate has slowed slightly.
     

    Attached Files:

  10. MacDawg macrumors P6

    MacDawg

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2004
    Location:
    "Between the Hedges"
  11. SandboxGeneral Moderator

    SandboxGeneral

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    #11
    Very cool Q. I always like to see these statistics you post.
     
  12. Jb07 macrumors 6502

    Joined:
    Oct 31, 2011
    Location:
    Dallas
    #12
    Mad Jew left MacRumors forums, didn't he? I never see him post anymore.
     
  13. SandboxGeneral Moderator

    SandboxGeneral

    Staff Member

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    #13
    Yeah, his Last Activity: Sep 5, 2008 00:27
     
  14. Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #14
    Yes, it's exactly a bell curve. ;)
     

    Attached Files:

  15. MacDawg macrumors P6

    MacDawg

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2004
    Location:
    "Between the Hedges"
    #15
    Ha, Ha
    My bad, I didn't look close enough
    I thought it was graphing the post rate, and I know mine has declined :p
     
  16. Doctor Q, Jul 4, 2012
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2012

    Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
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    #16
    6-Month Projections

    Chart #2: 6-Month Projected Top 50 Posters

    Computed by Doctor Q in July 2012

    Code:
    Proj  Projection      Proj    Cur   Delta
    Rank  Jan 4, 2013     Posts   Rank  Rank
    ----  --------------- ------  ----  -----
      1   GGJstudios      37,631    3     +2
      2   mad jew         32,199    1     -1
      3   Doctor Q        31,369    2     -1
      4   jessica.        31,307    5     +1
      5   mkrishnan       29,897    4     -1
      6   Eidorian        28,514    6      0
      7   rdowns          26,519    7      0
      8   Abstract        24,327    8      0
      9   Applejuiced     24,287   13     +4
     10   robbieduncan    23,629    9     -1
     11   Mr. Anderson    22,550   10     -1
     12   jsw             22,152   11     -1
     13   Blue Velvet     21,824   12     -1
     14   Hellhammer      21,772   14      0
     15   miles01110      20,777   23     +8
     16   simsaladimbamba 20,542   37    +21
     17   bartelby        19,807   15     -2
     18   iGary           19,583   16     -2
     19   Dagless         19,545   18     -1
     20   PlaceofDis      19,473   19     -1
     21   iBlue           19,301   20     -1
     22   edesignuk       19,259   17     -5
     23   Jaffa Cake      19,065   21     -2
     24   ~Shard~         18,318   22     -2
     25   maflynn         18,151   36    +11
    Code:
    Proj  Projection      Proj    Cur   Delta
    Rank  Jan 4, 2012     Posts   Rank  Rank
    ----  --------------- ------  ----  -----
     26   -aggie-         17,627   27     +1
     27   alphaod         17,390   25     -2
     28   iJohnHenry      17,241   29     +1
     29   DoFoT9          17,185   24     -5
     30   MacNut          16,805   28     -2
     31   wdlove          16,571   26     -5
     32   dukebound85     16,483   31     -1
     33   MacDawg         16,321   32     -1
     34   yellow          16,026   30     -4
     35   balamw          15,731   43     +8
     36   Peace           15,731   45     +9
     37   Surely          15,708   40     +3
     38   sushi           15,656   33     -5
     39   devilot         15,591   34     -5
     40   r.j.s           15,535   41     +1
     41   WildCowboy      15,499   35     -6
     42   Nermal          14,896   39     -3
     43   Sun Baked       14,663   38     -5
     44   twoodcc         14,586   42     -2
     45   KnightWRX       14,458  ---    ---
     46   leekohler       14,352   46      0
     47   bousozoku       13,998   44     -3
     48   Mitthrawnuruodo 13,559   47     -1
     49   yg17            13,280   48     -1
     50   Consultant      12,791  ---    ---
    Columns:
    1. Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
    2. Projection Jan 4, 2013 = members with the 50 highest projected post counts based on current post count and rate for the last 6 months.
    3. Proj Posts = projected # of posts by that member.
    4. Cur Rank = current rank, as of July 2012 (see Chart #1 above), or "---" for those who are not in the current Top 50.
    5. Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank over the next 6 months.

    Observations
    • KnightWRX and Consultant are projected to join the Top 50.
    • IJ Reilly and xUKHCx are projected to drop off the Top 50.
    • GGJstudios is projected to become the #1 poster.
    • Applejuiced is projected to join the Top 10, bumping Mr. Anderson off the Top 10 for the first time since I've kept statistics.
    • miles01110 and simsaladimbamba, who are not married to each other, are projected to join the Top 20, bumping out iBlue and edesignuk, who are married to each other.
     
  17. Koodauw macrumors 68040

    Koodauw

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2003
    Location:
    Madison
    #17
    Looking at the older charts makes me a bit nostalgic. I wonder what happens to those who post so much but then leave.
     
  18. MacDawg macrumors P6

    MacDawg

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2004
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    "Between the Hedges"
    #18
    We have to assume they are either assimilated by the Borg or rejoin the Matrix
     
  19. iJohnHenry macrumors P6

    iJohnHenry

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2008
    Location:
    On tenterhooks
    #19
    Looking to achieve the first page, soon.

    And WTH is with this??? :eek: I thought I didn't have a life. I was wrong!!! ;)

     
  20. Abstract macrumors Penryn

    Abstract

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    Dec 27, 2002
    Location:
    Location Location Location
    #20
    This changes nothing, old man. ;-)

    Some of these people will burn out in a year or so. Slow and steady spam wins the race, I say. I'll take my time, thanks.
     
  21. iJohnHenry macrumors P6

    iJohnHenry

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2008
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    On tenterhooks
    #21
    MR underestimates my longevity at their peril. ;)
     
  22. Hellhammer Moderator

    Hellhammer

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2008
    Location:
    Finland
    #22
    Been there, done that.

    From January 2010 stats:

    July 2012 stats:

     
  23. PlaceofDis macrumors Core

    Joined:
    Jan 6, 2004
    #23
    my post rate has always fluctuated depending on whats going on IRL. but i am still surprised that i'm in the top 25. i would have thought that i'd fallen lower by now.
     
  24. Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #24
    Here are your counts of posts made over each 6 month period.
     

    Attached Files:

  25. Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #25
    Six month projections: changes in rank

    This graph shows who is projected to move up or down over the next 6 months and by how many positions.

    simsaladimbamba's projected rank increase (up 21 slots) is way beyond what we're used to seeing.

    Five members are projected to hold their spots in the Top 50.

    Increase (or decrease) in rank

    click for the full-size graph

    120703-increase-in-rank2.png
     

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