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Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, July 2012

"End of Time" Top 50 Posters

Chart #3: "End of Time" Top 50 Posters

Computed by Doctor Q in July 2012

Code: 
Proj  Projection      Weighted  Cur   Delta  Last  Delta
Rank  End of Time       Rate    Rank  Rank   EOT    EOT
----  --------------- --------  ----  -----  ----  -----
  1   GGJstudios        32.34     3     +2     1      0
  2   simsaladimbamba   26.79    37    +35     2      0
  3   Applejuiced       15.42    13    +10     3      0
  4   maflynn           14.33    36    +32     5     +1
  5   miles01110        12.74    23    +18     8     +3
  6   KnightWRX         12.47   ---    ---     6      0
  7   jessica.           9.78     5     -2     9     +2
  8   Hellhammer         9.49    14     +6     4     -4
  9   Surely             8.28    40    +31    10     +1
 10   balamw             7.99    43    +33    13     +3
 11   rdowns             7.22     7     -4    11      0
 12   iJohnHenry         6.71    29    +17    15     +3
 13   Peace              6.41    45    +32   ---    ---
 14   r.j.s              6.29    41    +27    20     +6
 15   MacDawg            5.81    32    +17    12     -3
 16   samcraig           5.51   ---    ---    17     +1
 17   Rodimus Prime      5.41   ---    ---    21     +4
 18   robbieduncan       5.29     9     -9    14     -4
 19   Doctor Q           5.13     2    -17    16     -3
 20   AidenShaw          5.13   ---    ---    19     -1
 21   kdarling           4.81   ---    ---    25     +4
 22   Consultant         4.61   ---    ---    18     -4
 23   gnasher729         4.60   ---    ---    34    +11
 24   Jaffa Cake         4.45    21     -3    27     +3
 25   dejo               4.45   ---    ---    37    +12
Code: 
Proj  Projection      Weighted  Cur   Delta  Last  Delta
Rank  End of Time       Rate    Rank  Rank   EOT    EOT
----  --------------- --------  ----  -----  ----  -----
 26   dukebound85        4.34    31     +5    30     +4
 27   stridemat          4.21   ---    ---    28     +1
 28   alphaod            4.14    25     -3    31     +3
 29   Small White Car    4.10   ---    ---    36     +7
 30   Eidorian           3.96     6    -24    24     -6
 31   dhlizard           3.90   ---    ---    47    +16
 32   yg17               3.70    48    +16    32      0
 33   OllyW              3.46   ---    ---    41     +8
 34   annk               3.41   ---    ---   ---    ---
 35   nanofrog           3.37   ---    ---    22    -13
 36   jav6454            3.36   ---    ---    23    -13
 37   rhett7660          3.35   ---    ---    46     +9
 38   daneoni            3.33   ---    ---    50    +12
 39   leekohler          3.31    46     +7    33     -6
 40   Chupa Chupa        3.31   ---    ---   ---    ---
 41   ucfgrad93          3.31   ---    ---    40     -1
 42   appleguy123        3.22   ---    ---    29    -13
 43   Lord Blackadder    3.17   ---    ---   ---    ---
 44   QuarterSwede       2.94   ---    ---    39     -5
 45   TwinCities Dan     2.85   ---    ---    44     -1
 46   aristobrat         2.82   ---    ---   ---    ---
 47   Kilamite           2.78   ---    ---   ---    ---
 48   Dagless            2.71    18    -30    45     -3
 49   -aggie-            2.66    27    -22   ---    ---
 50   thelatinist        2.65   ---    ---    35    -15
Columns:
  1. Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
  2. Projection End of Time = members with the 50 highest projected post counts as time goes to infinity, based on a computed post rate.
  3. Weighted Rate = # posts per day by that member as a cascading weighted average, giving 50% weight to the most recent 6 months, 25% to the previous 6 months, 12.5% to the previous 6 months, and so on, with adjustments made based on the length of membership. See definition of weighted rate from July 2006.
  4. Cur Rank = current rank, as of July 2012, or "---" for those who are not in the current Top 50.
  5. Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank from now until the end of time.
  6. Last EOT = rank in End of Time projections from 6 months ago (January 2012, Chart #3), or "---" for those who were not in the previous End of Time Top 50.
  7. Delta EOT = change in rank from End of Time projection 6 months ago to End of Time projection now.

Observation

It's interesting to notice the changes in weighted post rates of the members who became moderators a year ago, as reflected in their "Delta EOT" changes in rank:
  • balamw: up 3
  • Hellhammer: down 4
  • maflynn: up 1
  • OllyW: up 8
  • robbieduncan: down 4
(Moderator 840quadra is not a Top 50 end-of-time poster.)
 
End of Time projections: changes in rank

This graph shows the changes in rank from the End of Time projections from 6 months ago to the End of Time projections now. In other words, it shows rank changes based on changes in the post rate of each member.

Six members are projected to hold their spots in the End of Time Top 50.

Increase (or decrease) in rank

click for the full-size graph

120703-increase-in-rank3.png​
 
Koodauw said:
Looking at the older charts makes me a bit nostalgic. I wonder what happens to those who post so much but then leave.
Click to expand...

Things in people's lives change but macrumors (and likewise internet, being pre-twitter/facebook) was also a different place back then. Many just feel their time is better spent elsewhere. I see hints of what I liked about this place, such as Q threads like this, so I return out of habit but that's happening less frequently. Just one of those things. :eek: :)
 
Doctor Q said:
It's interesting to notice the changes in weighted post rates of the members who became moderators a year ago, as reflected in their "Delta EOT" changes in rank:
  • balamw: up 3
  • Hellhammer: down 4
  • maflynn: up 1
  • OllyW: up 8
  • robbieduncan: down 4
(Moderator 840quadra is not a Top 50 end-of-time poster.)
Click to expand...

The Moderator thing does make a difference but IRL changes probably more so. I basically don't post at all at weekends now...
 
I've never been a prolific poster. Even in my most active periods, I usually hovered between 8-12 posts per day.

However, in the posts that I make, I like to believe that my contributions are thought-provoking, insightful, witty, delusional, and filled with adjectives.
 
Does that mean, MR has to finally create new user titles within the next six months now? Because at that rate, Mister GGJstudios will probably not be a G5 for long.

And I am probably not going to reach the projected spot, as I am posting less and less due to different work and no access to a computer during that time, unlike at my previous job, where I was sitting in front of a computer the whole time.

PS: I would really like to see the curve for my posting habits over the last six months, as there should have been a big drop at the beginning of May.
 
Quite honestly, if Apple does not get it's s*** together and start doing some incredible stuff, I won't be on that all time list. Innovation on iToys is one thing (and yes, iToys are important, I get that), but they need some serious work on the professional computer workstation end, so that we can make good apps for the iToys.

I have been a passionate fan of Apple since the 80's. But they need to address pro needs ASAP, or risk letting Microsoft do it. If we pros go to Microsoft, Apple will eventually be at their mercy for all their iToys, and we'll see the late 80's/early 90's for Apple repeated.

I'm not just bored Apple, I'm insulted. You tossed us out with the trash, when we were the ones who supported you in the first place and kept you alive in the tough years.

Get your s*** together, and remind people why you are the best.

You're most recent "accomplishment" was a thinner flash based laptop with a display you did not invent. How neat. Wow- fancy. We already have the MBA. Now we just got an MBA with a video card and a better screen. Really- nobody saw that coming. And BTW- I have a TV already.

How about this? Tell me how you're going to make my job easier. Tell me how my workflow can be improved. That's what you used to do, and why I was a fan.
 
Last edited:
SandboxGeneral said:
Q, if it's not too much trouble, I'd be interested in seeing my chart. :)
Click to expand...
Sorry but you won't be in my tracking range until you have about 8000 posts. I keep stats only for members in the Top 50, formerly in the Top 50, or approaching the Top 50.

simsaladimbamba said:
I would really like to see the curve for my posting habits over the last six months, as there should have been a big drop at the beginning of May.
Click to expand...
I have the numbers only for my "snapshot" dates of January 3 and July 3 each year. Since I don't have much historical data for you, I extrapolated your most recent 6-month post rate a few years out. Perhaps some new user titles will be needed after all! :)
 

Attachments

  • simsaladimbamba Post Count.png
    simsaladimbamba Post Count.png
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Last edited:
Doctor Q said:
I have the numbers only for my "snapshot" dates of January 3 and July 3 each year. Since I don't have much historical data for you, I extrapolated your most recent 6-month post rate a few years out. Perhaps some new user titles will be needed after all! :)
Click to expand...

Thank you very much, Dr. S. Q.. Hopefully it will never come to that foretold future about possible post counts, but since Mister GGJstudios will probably continue to post, new titles will be needed. Maybe we can hold a competition like the avatar ones about new titles, or we just go the Intel road. Or we keep G5 until the bitter end - the destruction of the database.
 
leekohler said:
Quite honestly, if Apple does not get it's s*** together and start doing some incredible stuff, I won't be on that all time list. Innovation on iToys is one thing (and yes, iToys are important, I get that), but they need some serious work on the professional computer workstation end, so that we can make good apps for the iToys.

I have been a passionate fan of Apple since the 80's. But they need to address pro needs ASAP, or risk letting Microsoft do it. If we pros go to Microsoft, Apple will eventually be at their mercy for all their iToys, and we'll see the late 80's/early 90's for Apple repeated.

I'm not just bored Apple, I'm insulted. You tossed us out with the trash, when we were the ones who supported you in the first place and kept you alive in the tough years.

Get your s*** together, and remind people why you are the best.

You're most recent "accomplishment" was a thinner flash based laptop with a display you did not invent. How neat. Wow- fancy. We already have the MBA. Now we just got an MBA with a video card and a better screen. Really- nobody saw that coming. And BTW- I have a TV already.

How about this? Tell me how you're going to make my job easier. Tell me how my workflow can be improved. That's what you used to do, and why I was a fan.
Click to expand...

Amen, the day the developers have to start making applications on a MS box will be a very sad day for Apple.
 
Dr.Q Any chance of doing an all time end of time taking in account all of your data from the beginning.
 
MacNut said:
Dr.Q Any chance of doing an all time end of time taking in account all of your data from the beginning.
Click to expand...
The End of Time chart I posted this time already accounts for the long-term posting rates of all forum members. However, I could make a list of the historical top posting rates using each member's peak rate, e.g., compare Mr. Anderson in 2003, Lacero in 2006, mad jew in 2007, -aggie- in 2010, and most recently GGJstudios and simsaladimbamba. I'll start assembling the data.
 
Great job Q,

Looks like I've been a busy poster these last 6 months :eek:
 
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