Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, July 2016

Discussion in 'Community Discussion' started by Doctor Q, Jul 4, 2016.

  1. Doctor Q, Jul 4, 2016
    Last edited: Jan 7, 2017

    Doctor Q Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
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    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #1
    This is the 27th edition of my semi-annual analysis of the MacRumors Top 50 Posters.

    Previous "Top 50 Posters Extrapolated" threads:
    2003 (July); 2004 (January, July); 2005 (January, July); 2006 (January, July); 2007 (January, July); 2008 (January, July); 2009 (January, July); 2010 (January, July); 2011 (January, July); 2012 (January, July); 2013 (January, July); 2014 (January, July); 2015 (January, July), 2016 (January)​

    The legend of column headings follows each chart. Measurements were taken yesterday (July 3, 2016).


    Chart #1: Current Top 50 Posters

    Computed by Doctor Q in July 2016

    Code:
                          Cur     Cur   Prev  Delta
    Rank  Current Top 50  Posts   Rate  Rank  Rank
    ----  --------------- ------  ----  ----  -----
     1    maflynn         47,307  19.8    2    +1
     2    GGJstudios      43,833   0.2    1    -1
     3    Applejuiced     35,924   3.2    4    +1
     4    GoCubsGo        35,677   0.4    3    -1
     5    Doctor Q        33,726   1.6    5     0
     6    mad jew         32,194   0.0    6     0
     7    mkrishnan       29,638   0.0    7     0
     8    Eidorian        29,018   0.0    8     0
     9    C DM            27,801  30.0   14    +5
    10    rdowns          27,200   0.5    9    -1
    11    robbieduncan    24,480   0.0   10    -1
    12    Abstract        24,281   0.2   11    -1
    13    jsw             22,798   0.0   12    -1
    14    MRU             22,451   8.0   17    +3
    15    Mr. Anderson    22,409   0.0   13    -2
    16    Hellhammer      21,950   2.1   16     0
    17    SandboxGeneral  21,711   5.1   20    +3
    18    Blue Velvet     21,638   0.0   15    -3
    19    Weaselboy       21,229   7.5   21    +2
    20    Dagless         20,980   0.9   19    -1
    21    alphaod         20,953   0.4   18    -3
    22    Jaffa Cake      19,801   0.0   22     0
    23    bartelby        19,790   0.0   23     0
    24    MacNut          19,627   1.1   25    +1
    25    iGary           19,583   0.0   24    -1
    26    miles01110      19,264   0.0   26     0
    27    PlaceofDis      19,232   0.0   27     0
    28    iBlue           19,175   0.0   28     0
    29    edesignuk       19,077   0.0   29     0
    30    balamw          18,661   1.7   32    +2
    31    Peace           18,547   0.9   30    -1
    32    ~Shard~         18,385   0.0   31    -1
    33    Intell          18,345   0.2   33     0
    34    MacDawg         18,136   0.8   34     0
    35    dukebound85     17,617   0.2   35     0
    36    Nermal          17,588   1.0   37    +1
    37    DoFoT9          17,462   0.0   36    -1
    38    Scepticalscribe 16,860  19.7  ---   ---
    39    -aggie-         16,710   0.1   38    -1
    40    wdlove          16,570   0.0   39    -1
    41    IJ Reilly       16,409   0.9   40    -1
    42    WildCowboy      16,042   0.6   41    -1
    43    samcraig        16,028   4.6   48    +5
    44    yellow          15,919   0.0   42    -2
    45    dejo            15,725   1.2   45     0
    46    Rogifan         15,711   5.3  ---   ---
    47    sushi           15,630   0.0   43    -4
    48    ucfgrad93       15,576   1.3   46    -2
    49    devilot         15,532   0.0   44    -5
    50    twoodcc         15,259   0.1   47    -3
    Columns:
    Rank = Position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
    Current Top 50 = members with the 50 currently highest post counts.
    Cur Posts = # of posts by that member.
    Cur Rate = average # posts per day by that member over the last 6 months.
    Prev Rank = previous rank, as of 6 months ago (January 2016), or "---" for those who are new to the Top 50.
    Delta Rank = change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank since 6 months ago.

    Observations
    1. maflynn has taken over the #1 spot from GGJstudios.

    2. Over the previous 6 months, C DM had a seemingly unsustainable post rate of 29.6 posts/day. Lo and behold, C DM's post rate has actually increased, to 30.0 posts/day, earning a Top 10 spot for the first time.

    3. C DM's ascent has bumped robbieduncan (inactive since 2014) out of the Top 10.

    4. Other than their order, the Top 25 remain the same.

    5. Scepticalscribe and Rogifan are new to the Top 50.

    6. KnightWRX and Surely (both inactive since 2013) have dropped off the Top 50.

    7. Largest rise in rank: C DM and samcraig, each up 5.

    8. Largest drop in rank: devilot (inactive since 2013), down 5 and nearly off the list.

    9. Total posts by the Top 50: 1,095,459, which is 4.7% of all posts ever made at MacRumors.

    Other stats and charts
     
  2. OLDCODGER macrumors 6502a

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    #2
    Some people have waaay too much time on their hands. :)
     
  3. MRU macrumors demi-god

    MRU

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  4. OLDCODGER macrumors 6502a

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    #4
    To clarify, I meant posters, lol.
     
  5. ucfgrad93 macrumors P6

    ucfgrad93

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    #5
    As always, these stats are fascinating to see. Thanks for all the time and effort you put into making them @Doctor Q it is much appreciated.
     
  6. mobilehaathi macrumors G3

    mobilehaathi

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  7. Scepticalscribe, Jul 4, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2016

    Scepticalscribe Contributor

    Scepticalscribe

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    #7
    Many thanks, @Doctor Q - I know that you put a lot of time and trouble into compiling these stats and tables.

    Personally, I have always found them extraordinarily interesting, and have long read them with absorbed fascination.

    Strange to have made it to the 'Top 50'; when I joined MacRumors, back in 2008, - the first online community that I have ever joined, I never envisaged that I would have such fun, nor that I would ever have become one of the names that would feature on any sort of list.
    --- Post Merged, Jul 4, 2016 ---
    Actually, comparing and contrasting it to the second chart from January 2016 ('six month projections'), I am struck by how extremely accurate most of the projections and predictions are, not least the names, predicted and the placings - or rankings - expected to be held by those names.

    And, no, I am not merely referring to myself, here.

    Fascinating.

    My inner Mr Spock thrills to this sort of thing.
     
  8. Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
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    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #8
    6-Month Projections

    Chart #2: 6-Month Projected Top 50 Posters

    Computed by Doctor Q in July 2016

    Code:
    Proj  Projection      Proj    Cur   Delta
    Rank  Jan 4, 2017     Posts   Rank  Rank
    ----  --------------- ------  ----  -----
     1    maflynn         50,978    1     0
     2    GGJstudios      43,870    2     0
     3    Applejuiced     36,521    3     0
     4    GoCubsGo        35,756    4     0
     5    Doctor Q        34,023    5     0
     6    C DM            33,346    9    +3
     7    mad jew         32,194    6    -1
     8    mkrishnan       29,645    7    -1
     9    Eidorian        29,027    8    -1
    10    rdowns          27,294   10     0
    11    robbieduncan    24,480   11     0
    12    Abstract        24,323   12     0
    13    MRU             23,926   14    +1
    14    jsw             22,798   13    -1
    15    SandboxGeneral  22,661   17    +2
    16    Weaselboy       22,620   19    +3
    17    Mr. Anderson    22,409   15    -2
    18    Hellhammer      22,342   16    -2
    19    Blue Velvet     21,637   18    -1
    20    Dagless         21,152   20     0
    21    alphaod         21,027   21     0
    22    Scepticalscribe 20,510   38   +16
    23    MacNut          19,836   24    +1
    24    Jaffa Cake      19,801   22    -2
    25    bartelby        19,790   23    -2
    26    iGary           19,583   25    -1
    27    miles01110      19,264   26    -1
    28    PlaceofDis      19,232   27    -1
    29    iBlue           19,175   28    -1
    30    edesignuk       19,077   29    -1
    31    balamw          18,972   30    -1
    32    Peace           18,714   31    -1
    33    ~Shard~         18,390   32    -1
    34    Intell          18,384   33    -1
    35    MacDawg         18,275   34    -1
    36    Nermal          17,771   36     0
    37    dukebound85     17,650   35    -2
    38    DoFoT9          17,462   37    -1
    39    samcraig        16,873   43    +4
    40    -aggie-         16,720   39    -1
    41    Rogifan         16,692   46    +5
    42    IJ Reilly       16,573   41    -1
    43    wdlove          16,570   40    -3
    44    WildCowboy      16,159   42    -2
    45    dejo            15,955   45     0
    46    yellow          15,919   44    -2
    47    ucfgrad93       15,821   48    +1
    48    sushi           15,630   47    -1
    49    AidenShaw       15,545   ---  ---
    50    devilot         15,532   49    -1
    Columns:
    1. Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
    2. Projection Jan 4, 2017 = members with the 50 highest projected post counts based on current post count and rate for the last 6 months.
    3. Proj Posts = projected # of posts by that member.
    4. Cur Rank = current rank, as of July 2016 (see Chart #1 above), or "---" for those who are not in the current Top 50.
    5. Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank over the next 6 months.

    Observations
    1. maflynn, retaining the top spot, is projected to cross the 50,000 threshold, the first person ever to do so.

    2. C DM is projected to pass:
      • mad jew, who was the #1 poster form 2007 to 2012.
      • mkrishnan, who peaked at #2 from 2009 to 2011.
      • Eidorian, who was #4 from 2010 and 2011.

    3. MRU's 1451 posts edge out jsw for position #13. jsw was #3 in 2007-2008 and has been dropping since going inactive in 2014.

    4. The only other increases in rank among the Top 20 are SandboxGeneral (up 2) and Weaselboy (up 3).

    5. The biggest increase among the Top 50 is no contest, with Scepticalscribe moving up an astounding 16 slots and into the Top 25.

    6. A few members dropped by 2 slots, while only one dropped by 3. That was the once prolific wdlove, who was the #2 behind Mr. Anderson in 2005 and 2006.

    7. AidenShaw is the only member new to the Top 50, bumping twoodcc off the list.

    8. It takes 15,259 posts to qualify for the current Top 50, and it is projected to take 273 more posts (a total of 15,532) to qualify for the Top 50 in 6 months.

    9. In a Top 100 list, arn would rank #62 right now and would be projected at #64 in 6 months.
     
  9. Scepticalscribe Contributor

    Scepticalscribe

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2008
    Location:
    The Far Horizon
    #9
    Well, I am still astonished at how extremely accurate the projections of January 2016 (in the second list - '6 month projected top 50 posters') proved to be, when looking at the first chart - the actual top 50 posters in July, that is, now.

    However, these are clearly predicated on maintaining a steady - and thus, predictable - rate of posting, and assuming that everyone does more or less what they are predicted to do.

    Once again, my thanks for these stats - they really are very interesting to read, and must be extraordinarily interesting to compile.
     
  10. Gav2k macrumors G3

    Gav2k

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    Jul 24, 2009
  11. Apple fanboy macrumors Core

    Apple fanboy

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    Feb 21, 2012
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    Behind the Lens, UK
    #11
    Fascinating as always @Doctor Q. As usual proving yourself to be the stato of MR.
    And well done to @Scepticalscribe for jumping into the top 50.
    For me it always seems better when these slots are actually full of people who still currently post, rather than people I've never seen.
     
  12. Doctor Q, Jul 4, 2016
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2017

    Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #12
    "End of Time" Top 50 Posters

    Chart #3: "End of Time" Top 50 Posters

    Computed by Doctor Q in July 2016

    Code:
    Proj  Projection      Weighted  Cur   Delta  Last  Delta
    Rank  End of Time       Rate    Rank  Rank   EOT    EOT
    ----  --------------  --------  ----  -----  ----  -----
     1    C DM              26.97     9     +8     2     +1
     2    maflynn           22.10     1     -1     1     -1
     3    Scepticalscribe   17.04    38    +35     3      0
     4    Newtons Apple     11.80   ---    ---     4      0
     5    eyoungren         10.49   ---    ---     7     +2
     6    Apple fanboy      10.17   ---    ---     8     +2
     7    Weaselboy          9.70    19    +12     6     -1
     8    Rogifan            8.67    46    +38     5     -3
     9    MRU                8.57    14     +5     9      0
    10    I7guy              8.37   ---    ---    12     +2
    11    SandboxGeneral     7.11    17     +6    10     -1
    12    JayLenochiniMac    6.71   ---    ---    11     -1
    13    tiggger            6.52   ---    ---    25    +12
    14    Michael Goff       6.25   ---    ---    24    +10
    15    Night Spring       6.23   ---    ---    30    +15
    16    Tech198            6.02   ---    ---    28    +12
    17    sunking101         5.98   ---    ---    14     -3
    18    The Doctor11       5.98   ---    ---    15     -3
    19    lordofthereef      5.89   ---    ---    23     +4
    20    Max(IT)            5.89   ---    ---    19     -1
    21    Huntn              5.87   ---    ---    20     -1
    22    Armen              5.65   ---    ---    22      0
    23    mattopotamus       5.56   ---    ---    13    -10
    24    Meister            5.31   ---    ---    18     -6
    25    Applejuiced        5.02     3    -22    16     -9
    26    KPOM               4.67   ---    ---    21     -5
    27    Gav2k              4.57   ---    ---    26     -1
    28    Traverse           4.55   ---    ---    29     +1
    29    jamezr             4.46   ---    ---    39    +10
    30    OllyW              4.18   ---    ---    34     +4
    31    samcraig           4.11    43    +12    41    +10
    32    Fishrrman          4.09   ---    ---    50    +18
    33    The Game 161       4.08   ---    ---    40     +7
    34    Altemose           3.98   ---    ---    17    -17
    35    kdarling           3.91   ---    ---    38     +3
    36    HenryDJP           3.87   ---    ---    31     -5
    37    apolloa            3.76   ---    ---    42     +5
    38    Technarchy         3.48   ---    ---    37     -1
    39    cynics             3.44   ---    ---    33     -6
    40    dannyyankou        3.43   ---    ---   ---    ---
    41    T5BRICK            3.35   ---    ---    45     +4
    42    AustinIllini       3.33   ---    ---    47     +5
    43    Chupa Chupa        3.30   ---    ---   ---    ---
    44    gotluck            3.26   ---    ---   ---    ---
    45    bushido            3.21   ---    ---   ---    ---
    46    batting1000        3.13   ---    ---    27    -19
    47    spinedoc77         3.13   ---    ---    49     +2
    48    firedept           3.08   ---    ---    48      0
    49    AppleScruff1       2.90   ---    ---    44     -5
    50    ucfgrad93          2.87    48     -2    32    -18
    Columns:
    1. Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
    2. Projection End of Time = members with the 50 highest projected post counts as time goes to infinity, based on a computed post rate.
    3. Weighted Rate = # posts per day by that member as a cascading weighted average, giving 50% weight to the most recent 6 months, 25% to the previous 6 months, 12.5% to the previous 6 months, and so on, with adjustments made based on the length of membership.
    4. Cur Rank = current rank as of July 2016 (Chart 1), or "---" for those who are not in the current Top 50.
    5. Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank from now until the end of time.
    6. Last EOT = rank in End of Time projections from 6 months ago (January 2016, Chart #3), or "---" for those who were not in the previous End of Time Top 50.
    7. Delta EOT = change in rank from End of Time projection 6 months ago to End of Time projection now.
    These are the true "top posters" at MacRumors since they currently make the most posts over any given time period. The results are limited to posters with at least 5000 posts and enough history for me to track their rate.


    Observations
    1. Only 10 of 50 members in the Top 50 End of Time are among the current Top 50 posters, showing the big difference between post count and post rate.

    2. C DM and maflynn are again the leaders, this time with C DM in the lead by nearly 5 posts/day.

    3. Compared with the End of Time projections from 6 months ago, I7guy joins the Top 10, edging out SandboxGeneral.

    4. New to the Top 50 End of Time: dannyyankou, Chupa Chupa, gotluck, and bushido.

    5. Out of the Top 50 End of Time: Julien, Renzatic, Jessica Lares, and Intell.

    6. Largest increase from End of Time 6 months ago: Fishrrman up 18 slots, followed by Night Spring, up 15 slots.

    7. Largest decrease: batting1000 (down 19 slots), ucfgrad93 (down 18 slots), and Altemose (down 17 slots).

    8. This time you can make the Top 50 End of Time list with fewer than 3 posts per day. A rate of 2.87 posts/day is sufficient.

    9. Longest memberships among the End of Time Top 50: Chupa Chupa, who is 12 days short of 14 years as a member.

    10. Newtons Apple continues to be the Top 50 End of Time member with the shortest forum membership, now 2 years and 3 months.

    11. If we expanded the list to the Top 100 End of Time, arn would be #91. I'd be #64.
     
  13. Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #13
    Chart #4: Currently Active Top 50 Posters

    These users have posted in the last 6 months.

    Computed by Doctor Q in July 2016

    Code:
    Rank  Active Top 50    Cur Posts
    ----  ---------------  ---------
     1    maflynn           47,307
     2    GGJstudios        43,833
     3    Applejuiced       35,924
     4    GoCubsGo          35,677
     5    Doctor Q          33,726
     6    mkrishnan         29,638
     7    Eidorian          29,018
     8    C DM              27,801
     9    rdowns            27,200
    10    Abstract          24,281
    11    MRU               22,451
    12    Hellhammer        21,950
    13    SandboxGeneral    21,711
    14    Weaselboy         21,229
    15    Dagless           20,980
    16    alphaod           20,953
    17    MacNut            19,627
    18    balamw            18,661
    19    Peace             18,547
    20    ~Shard~           18,385
    21    Intell            18,345
    22    MacDawg           18,136
    23    dukebound85       17,617
    24    Nermal            17,588
    25    Scepticalscribe   16,860
    26    -aggie-           16,710
    27    IJ Reilly         16,409
    28    WildCowboy        16,042
    29    samcraig          16,028
    30    dejo              15,725
    31    Rogifan           15,711
    32    ucfgrad93         15,576
    33    twoodcc           15,259
    34    AidenShaw         14,948
    35    Sun Baked         14,834
    36    gnasher729        14,722
    37    yg17              14,715
    38    kdarling          14,494
    39    OllyW             13,992
    40    arn               13,633
    41    Consultant        13,267
    42    eyoungren         12,937
    43    nagromme          12,411
    44    Apple fanboy      12,322
    45    Lord Blackadder   12,312
    46    KPOM              12,246
    47    Night Spring      12,065
    48    wrldwzrd89        12,017
    49    Chundles          11,912
    50    JayLenochiniMac   11,534
    Columns:
    Rank = Position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
    Active Top 50 = members with the 50 currently highest post counts among those who have posted in the last 6 months.
    Cur Posts = # of posts by that member.​
     
  14. Scepticalscribe Contributor

    Scepticalscribe

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2008
    Location:
    The Far Horizon
    #14
    Once again, thanks very much, @Doctor Q - very impressive work.

    Are you using July 2015, (as you mentioned in the post above) or January 2016 (Chart 3) as the basis for the comparison between this (July 2016) and earlier periods of time?

    In any case, there are a great many names here that I do not know at all, - but I assume that they are found in areas of the forum that I don't frequent - along with some I recognise whom I know to be currently active, and a few others who were active during the first years when I joined the forums.
     
  15. macs4nw macrumors 601

    macs4nw

    #15
    We're just envious right? :D I can't type fast enough to get to those levels, lol
     
  16. MRU macrumors demi-god

    MRU

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    #16
    It really is impressive work. It's fascinating going back over the years and looking at the names, it also is a little sad when you see some names that used to be regulars and you would often have chats with but have subsequently moved on for one reason or another.

    Thanks again Doctor Q, we appreciate this.
     
  17. dukebound85 macrumors P6

    dukebound85

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    #17
    a lot of newcomers. I miss a lot of the past active members. It is almost a new forum for me
     
  18. stridemat Moderator

    stridemat

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    #18
    Great stats as always Q. Always look forward to having a read of them.
     
  19. Jessica Lares macrumors G3

    Jessica Lares

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    Oct 31, 2009
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    Near Dallas, Texas, USA
    #19
    I knew I was going to fall off the EOT this time around. Have been mostly lurking around these last six months. Not surprised the average post count as a whole went down to be honest.
     
  20. Scepticalscribe Contributor

    Scepticalscribe

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2008
    Location:
    The Far Horizon
    #20
    At last, a list where I recognise most - if not all - of the names who post.

    And, once again, @Doctor Q, many thanks to you for taking the trouble, and putting in the time, - and effort - to compile these statistics.

    They make for fascinating reading.
     
  21. SandboxGeneral Moderator

    SandboxGeneral

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    #21
    Fascinating statistics Q; I always appreciate your work on these and read them with great interest.
     
  22. Apple fanboy macrumors Core

    Apple fanboy

    Joined:
    Feb 21, 2012
    Location:
    Behind the Lens, UK
    #22
    Yay up two places! Who said having no life outside of work and MR was sad! Makes all my worthless witterings seam worthwhile!
    Thanks for putting these together.
     
  23. maflynn Moderator

    maflynn

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    May 3, 2009
    Location:
    Boston
    #23
    Thanks Q, that's some amazing set of statistics. I cannot believe I'm within reach of 50,000 posts, that's just crazy to think - especially when I really don't like talking to people :eek:
     
  24. SandboxGeneral Moderator

    SandboxGeneral

    Staff Member

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    #24
    You're awfully chatty for someone who doesn't like talking. :p
     
  25. maflynn Moderator

    maflynn

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    May 3, 2009
    Location:
    Boston
    #25
    That's the irony, perhaps I get my social interaction more comfortably at the end of a keyboard then face to face.
     

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