I either see two options here. Either it won't be a big deal and side-loading on iOS is as beneficial and used as on Android which makes these lawsuits, investigations, complains useless. Or Epic will do what they do on PC to really make App Store hurt.I have no idea what Steam or the Epic store are like these days, it’s been years since I owned a gaming PC. But I know for a fact that Apple can do more to improve the App Store just by looking at its many shortcomings that exist today.
Ultimately, I’m sure some devs will pull out of the App Store, and some of those may return, but I just don’t think it’s going to be at a scale that most people would notice or care about. Devs already deprecate apps all the time because competition is tough, so they’d have to have really done the math before pulling out of a store that lists their app in the pocket of billions of people by default.
Basically, I think it’s going to be far less of a big deal than you seem to, and will give devs whose apps can actually offer new functionality a chance to reach a whole new audience. Tiny downside—potential for big upsides. But I do acknowledge that we’re both just guessing and know one really knows how this will play out.
People seem to be on board with this to make the App Store hurt, so I see the second option being the most likely. Could be the first, but I seriously doubt Epic will just make a store and that is it. We will just have to see but this is the perfect time to have these conversations because once it is open, especially due to a order by the government, it cannot be closed up again.