I just love reading from the folks who are convinced that Verizon will never ever ever get the iPhone. Do you honestly believe that nonsense? Apple will essentially double its market share in the U.S.
It's not "never." It's a matter of timing.
I'm not convinced that Verizon will get the iPhone in the next year. I'm thinking more like 2013.
There's a cost associated with developing a handset with a different technology, the COGS would be different, yet Apple would be compelled to sell it at the same price. The margins would be different. There's also the added cost of customer support, engineering, documentation, inventory, etc. for two different devices.
Depending on if you talk to the CDMA or GSM industry groups, they will say that GSM/UTMS captures 80-85% of the global telephony market. It's not just about selling to Verizon Wireless. The worldwide revenue potential for a CDMA handset is considerably less.
There is also a much harder metric to consider. If using the handset on different network technologies results in a different customer satisfaction rating, Apple may have to consider that. That's one reason why I think Apple may wait until 2012 or 2013 to release a CDMA/LTE iPhone. There is an upgrade path for the HSPA handset: HSPA+ 14, HSPA+ 21, or HSPA+ 42. There is no such upgrade path for EV-DO handsets, as far as I can tell.