I believe it this time.
I've been saying for the better part of a year that the timeline would be:
1. iphone 4 is released for AT&T only in the US
2. AT&T sells a butt-ton of them (while boosting their ETF as well)
3. AT&T has more or less finished "Release day" sales, and BANG announcement goes out for VZW
AT&T gets new subscribers and hardware sales, plus ETF for everyone who's been waiting to jump to VZW...at which point VZW gets to sell hardware and subscriptions, apple gets to sell hardware, AT&T collects subs they've already sold, and the ETF.
Everybody wins except joe consumer