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If it was a $500 device, it would still sell less units than an iPhone mini.
Get a grip. If it were a $500 device, it still would have only sold 400k units because that’s all that could be manufactured due to supply constraints on the micro-OLED displays.
 
I know you and I disagree on this, but I just fundamentally disagree that anyone at Apple seriously expected a mass market hit out of a $3500 device. It just defies my imagination - they have pricing down to a science. Talking up the device, about how advanced it is etc., how it's tomorrow's technology today makes sense to me to hype it as a halo product.

I'm not even saying it's doing as well as they expected it to, it wouldn't surprise me if they sold 50-100k less than they thought. But the idea that they thought it was immediately going to be as successful as the iPad or Apple Watch just doesn't make sense if you've even taken an undergraduate business 101 course, let alone have multiple MBAs from Duke, Harvard, Penn, Georgetown etc. on staff and have decades of selling products at all sorts of price ranges.

You just can't convince me that the way Tim was talking about "it's here" ... and him allowing himself to be photographed in it ... didn't mean that he thought this was his "iPhone moment"

Vanity Fair full spreads aren't things you do for v1 concepts meant to just "get something out there"

That's not who VF hits with

Definitely will have to agree to disagree on this one

To me this is egg on the face and folks have been, since then, trying to convince everyone Apple never even meant for this under cooked 1 egg omelette to be fed to anyone.

I'm just not buying it
 
you keep saying this. Have you seen it? source please

Apple has long been known to work on a decade horizon with products worked on 3 years in advance and new product categories developed for far longer than that.

You can trace this to the development of new categories like the iPhone which started as an iPad first in development in 2002 and became the iPhone released in 2007. The iPad itself released 3 years later in 2010. That cadence has continued in modern Apple with Vision Pro starting development in 2015 and released 9 years later.

Apple was the CEO in 2011 when he died, hence there was a standard 8-10 year long roadmap that he envisioned because he was CEO and that he would've executed on but he died so that was his final roadmap.

Nobody is saying he left a literal map specifically written in gold leaf for Tim Cook knowing he was going to die. In fact, Steve told Cook to be his own CEO. But Steve's at the time current roadmap at Apple was the final guidance for Apple's future. How much of that Cook executed on, we don't know but we do know that Steve's last big move was acquiring Siri and implementing it in the iPhone4S, released on October 4, 2011. Steve Jobs died October 5th. Tim Cook either decided to throw out Steve's intentions for Siri, or didn't understand them. Either of those have proven a terrible decision.
 
I have to disagree here

The below quote from the Vanity Fair piece, and the lead up in the article about the "years building to this point" (paraphrasing that a bit) really paints a different picture from Apple from the launch time period.

Tim is speaking about AVP like "this is it" ... "we've gotten there after years and years"

Yes, it's referred to as the "first one", but nothing about the way it was all spoken about feels like it was meant to be this much of a hyper niche thing.

You don't do Vanity Fair pieces for that type of release.


"What Cook didn’t know is how his engineers were going to take this thing that needs a supercomputer in another room, and fans and multiple screens, and shrink it down to the size of a pair of goggles that weighs a little more than a box of spaghetti. “I’ve known for years we would get here,” Cook told me. “I didn’t know when, but I knew that we would arrive here.”

Now that time is finally here. The first Vision Pro, in a perfect white cube the size of a large shoebox, will arrive in stores on Friday, with tens of thousands of Apple obsessives and early adopters already having preordered it. Of course, the niche crowd is easy. What Cook and his army of executives know is that the company still has to convince everyone else that, in their own daily lives, for work or entertainment or meditating or capturing the most surreal family memories, or all of the above, they need to spend $3,500 on a spatial computer"




I really think people are retconning this situation

Short memories is exactly right. All the debate about the AVP, people seem to forget that 12 months ago, Cook was banging on about how augmented reality was the future that had now, miraculously, arrived.

Fast forward 6 months, and after a much slower than expected AR uptake, both in AVPs sold (with a return rate off the charts) and in the mindset of consumers, he then pivoted to AI as the “next big thing” as the competition ramped up. Primarily in order to stay relevant, he tried to shoehorn gimped functionality into an already retarded Siri and then, until last week, knowing it was a dud, continued to dishonestly sell it hard as the killer upgrade feature of the new iPhone 16 range.
 
Whoever led Vision Pro was very very good at driving towards shipping. Was there good product-market-fit? Doubtful. But in terms of leading teams towards executing, I would want that same urgency and focus that was brought to Vision Pro
…Driving towards shipping a product which is too heavy (giving people neck and headaches), needs a huge external battery, etc. And then no one buys it, so developers lose interest.
I’m not sure that’s the right kind of “driving towards shipping.”
 
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Short memories is exactly right. All the debate about the AVP, people seem to forget that 12 months ago, Cook was banging on about how augmented reality was the future that had now, miraculously, arrived.

Fast forward 6 months, and after a much slower than expected AR uptake, both in AVPs sold (with a return rate off the charts) and in the mindset of consumers, he then pivoted to AI as the “next big thing” as the competition ramped up. Primarily in order to stay relevant, he tried to shoehorn gimped functionality into an already retarded Siri and then, until last week, knowing it was a dud, continued to dishonestly sell it hard as the killer upgrade feature of the new iPhone 16 range.

Exactly right

A dispassionate analysis of what's actually gone on before our eyes is honestly somewhat alarming.

It shows leadership pivoting from pillar to post trying to find something ... figure something out ... it feels like the total opposite of a coherent vision for the future, what it looks like, where consumers are within it and what product roadmap would support that vision.
 
Give us John Ternus as CEO please!

View attachment 2494211
Why not. John has a personality and is someone many would be pleased to spend time with unlike the wet dishrag and zombie Cook who could not even wave a flag with some energy at a car race. Bring on Ternus. Give Cook a cardboard box and tell him to pack up his personal effects and be out of Cupertino by 5PM March 21.
 
Short memories is exactly right. All the debate about the AVP, people seem to forget that 12 months ago, Cook was banging on about how augmented reality was the future that had now, miraculously, arrived.
If you've used it for any length of time, then yes, the future is here. It will be lighter and cheaper and more attractive, but it's definitely the future.

Fast forward 6 months, and after a much slower than expected AR uptake, both in AVPs sold (with a return rate off the charts) and in the mindset of consumers, he then pivoted to AI as the “next big thing” as the competition ramped up. Primarily in order to stay relevant, he tried to shoehorn gimped functionality into an already retarded Siri and then, until last week, knowing it was a dud, continued to dishonestly sell it hard as the killer upgrade feature of the new iPhone 16 range.
Source for return rates "being off the charts"? Because everything I've read says that is untrue.
 
Maybe not a commercial success. But from a technical standpoint? Yes - it's an absolute success. Have you used one?
Are you kidding? A technical success that thing with scary fake eyes in front l, heavier than all headsets without integrating a battery and with less field of view than cheaper competitors? The only good thing about it was the screen and that wasn’t even designed by Apple.
 
Are you kidding? A technical success that thing with scary fake eyes in front l, heavier than all headsets without integrating a battery and with less field of view than cheaper competitors? The only good thing about it was the screen and that wasn’t even designed by Apple.
So, no, you haven't used one.
 
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Apple has long been known to work on a decade horizon with products worked on 3 years in advance and new product categories developed for far longer than that.

You can trace this to the development of new categories like the iPhone which started as an iPad first in development in 2002 and became the iPhone released in 2007. The iPad itself released 3 years later in 2010. That cadence has continued in modern Apple with Vision Pro starting development in 2015 and released 9 years later.

Apple was the CEO in 2011 when he died, hence there was a standard 8-10 year long roadmap that he envisioned because he was CEO and that he would've executed on but he died so that was his final roadmap.

Nobody is saying he left a literal map specifically written in gold leaf for Tim Cook knowing he was going to die. In fact, Steve told Cook to be his own CEO. But Steve's at the time current roadmap at Apple was the final guidance for Apple's future. How much of that Cook executed on, we don't know but we do know that Steve's last big move was acquiring Siri and implementing it in the iPhone4S, released on October 4, 2011. Steve Jobs died October 5th. Tim Cook either decided to throw out Steve's intentions for Siri, or didn't understand them. Either of those have proven a terrible decision.
just for clarity cause you made some typo - Cook was CEO a few months before Jobs passed, handpicked by Jobs.
And yes, timeline for new products can be spanning a decade in some cases.

Assuming that Jobs had a "vision" or "intention" for Siri - we do not know. He also famously said "I cracked the TV" and nothing meaningful came out of that "vision".

Jobs was unique, clearly had a vision for products and part of that are also some "dumb visions", got to take risks. But he's gone for a long time and a lot of things have changed. I know how people here continue to "miss" him, but the whole industry hasn't really innovated much, eg, laptops are the same concept as 30+ years ago, a screen, a keyboard with some input device too, all the details (processor, screen resolution etc) are technical evolutions, nothing earth shattering, smartphones the same in 20 years or so ...
Name anyone similar to Jobs in the tech industry ,I can't really think of anyone ...

Referencing Jobs is living in the past, not where the future lies.
 
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AI in general hallucinates a lot, i don't which version you are using. The best AI's aren't even AI's but pre programmed bots with set instructions, and phone systems.
 
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The Macintosh was a flop as well, the Apple II drove the company's finances until the very early 1990s.

Fortunately, Apple didn't listen to big brain analysts and media types who called for Apple to dump the Mac and focus on the II.
What? By 1988 Mac sales (Mac SE, SE30, Mac II, Mac Portable, Mac IIx) exceeded Apple II sales. I still have a 1985 //c and it still works, amazingly. The Apple II line sold in the millions.
 
Vision Pro may have been a flop but that’s what happens when you bring a product that no one asked for to market. Technologically and engineering wise, the Vision Pro team delivered, something the Siri team under Giannandrea has been unable to do for over a decade.

Like iPod... (who asked for a thousand songs in your pocket?)
iPhone with a non-mechanical keyboard (who asked for that?)
iPad... it's just a big iPhone (nobody asked for that)
Watch... who asked for that? If I want to know the time, I'll just look at my iPhone.
 
I've lost confidence in Tim Cook. It's not like he didn't know that Giannandrea's demo was bogus and that the product couldn't ship when promised. Or if he in fact did not know those things, that's arguably worse. And while this is Apple's mot high-profile failure, it's far from the only one in recent years.

Apple needs a CEO who is a product visionary and who can re-instill highly exacting standards at Apple. Moving executives around below the CEO level won't fix what's really wrong with Apple.
The Facetime reactions popup is blocking the button for boardmembers to be able to fire Tim.
 
I have to disagree here

The below quote from the Vanity Fair piece, and the lead up in the article about the "years building to this point" (paraphrasing that a bit) really paints a different picture from Apple from the launch time period.

Tim is speaking about AVP like "this is it" ... "we've gotten there after years and years"

Yes, it's referred to as the "first one", but nothing about the way it was all spoken about feels like it was meant to be this much of a hyper niche thing.

You don't do Vanity Fair pieces for that type of release.


"What Cook didn’t know is how his engineers were going to take this thing that needs a supercomputer in another room, and fans and multiple screens, and shrink it down to the size of a pair of goggles that weighs a little more than a box of spaghetti. “I’ve known for years we would get here,” Cook told me. “I didn’t know when, but I knew that we would arrive here.”

Now that time is finally here. The first Vision Pro, in a perfect white cube the size of a large shoebox, will arrive in stores on Friday, with tens of thousands of Apple obsessives and early adopters already having preordered it. Of course, the niche crowd is easy. What Cook and his army of executives know is that the company still has to convince everyone else that, in their own daily lives, for work or entertainment or meditating or capturing the most surreal family memories, or all of the above, they need to spend $3,500 on a spatial computer"




I really think people are retconning this situation a bit

I'm quite aware of the "wow" of VR and the types of experiences, as I've owned many of the headsets for at least some time period over the years. Very little of what's being done with AVP is going to move this anywhere into the mainstream, and certainly not with this anemic level of support from the first party (especially on courting developer interest)

If we want to revert back to "the next one will be it" .. ok, I suppose ... fair game.

But think it's time to be honest about how absolutely "not it" the AVP v1 has been.
More time is not needed for AVP1 -- this is what it is.

Some short new concert or experience content every so often isn't doing a single thing to the overall picte here

Also from the article:

It’s largely this question that will determine if the Apple Vision Pro will be a financial success. While Apple execs would only tell me “we’re excited” about the sales numbers so far, Wall Street analysts believe the company sold around 180,000 units in the opening weekend of online preorders. Morgan Stanley anticipates that sales will ramp up to 2 million to 4 million units a year over the next five years, and it will become a new product category for the company. But others, like Ming-Chi Kuo, an Apple supply chain analyst, thinks it’s going to remain a niche product for some time. Almost all the analysts I spoke with believe it will eventually get there. “We think a few years from now it’ll resemble sunglasses and be less than $1,500,” Dan Ives, a senior analyst at the investment firm Wedbush Securities, told me.
Nah, Apple and the market had much lower expectations from the outset and for the initial ramp-up. It's amazing how so many people on this forum forget that most of Apple's "hits" aren't instant hits and how they can armchair QB this now garguntuan ship to perennial success. Apple is going to guess wrong on some of its bets, like the car and AI. Strategically, they were probably planning to use much of the same tech that would branch off in different ways. That strategy worked for OS X and Apple Silicon. But that also means they aren't as agile as a narrowly-focused VC-backed startup. I have some of friends who worked for SRI (the parent of Siri when it was spun-off) when Apple acquired Siri. The friends weren't in the Siri division and used Android phones so they had little knowledge of the project. I don't know how much of the original Siri team is still at Apple. Some probably stayed for a while, others went into other opportunities in the then-burgeoning machine learning market. As far as ML goes, Apple got much of what it wanted out of Siri. They weren't prepared for the coming AI storm and Siri wasn't either, so Apple should've quickly acquired someone else more in that vein. Vision Pro wasn't going to be an instant hit except for early adopters. With enough care, feeding, and price drops, it'll become a hit.
 
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Like iPod... (who asked for a thousand songs in your pocket?)
iPhone with a non-mechanical keyboard (who asked for that?)
iPad... it's just a big iPhone (nobody asked for that)
Watch... who asked for that? If I want to know the time, I'll just look at my iPhone.

Nothing like any of those products honestly.

They all sold more than a million in their first quarter of availability.
 
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And…a lawsuit was filed in district court in San Joe accusing Apple of false advertising over Apple Intelligence:

"Apple's advertisements saturated the internet, television, and other airwaves to cultivate a clear and reasonable consumer expectation that these transformative features would be available upon the iPhone's release," the suit reads.

  • "This drove unprecedented excitement in the market, even for Apple, as the company knew it would, and as part of Apple's ongoing effort to convince consumers to upgrade at a premium price and to distinguish itself from competitors deemed to be winning the AI arms race."
  • "Contrary to Defendant's claims of advanced AI capabilities, the Products offered a significantly limited or entirely absent version of Apple Intelligence, misleading consumers about its actual utility and performance. Worse yet, Defendant promoted its Products based on these overstated AI capabilities, leading consumers to believe they were purchasing a device with features that did not exist or were materially misrepresented."
 
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