People who believe self-driving cars will happen have never driven through Seattle on a grey drizzly day. No amount of computation power can plan for how terrible it is.
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Volkswagen CEO Skeptical About Apple Car, Believes in CarPlay-Only Approach
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I guess the point is that if Apple keeps giving away CarPlay (or licenses it cheaply to car manufacturers), what will be left to make an iCar stand out in the competition and cause people to actually pay a premium to buy it? The evolution of CarPlay is a dead giveaway that Apple is not planning an iCar - because such a car would have to compete with itself in other brands who have the "Apple experience" via CarPlay.
Lol because the CEO said something negative about your favorite company?
Self-driving cars will happen eventually... Maybe not in our lifetime, but they will get there eventually.
The reason you can drive through a chaotic scene in Seattle is because you can anticipate the uncertainties and take appropriate precautions; that only requires ability to identify your surroundings (i.e. perception), experience (i.e. data) and the ability to react in time (i.e. computation).
We will get there eventually; if you know a thing or two about computers this much should be obvious to you. Computation won't be the limitation, if anything it'll be the ability to perceive the relevant pieces in the surroundings.
I'm honestly not sure that Apple *ever* planned to bring an entire car to market. Remember when all the analysts and spies were saying Apple was going to make a TV, then they made a set top box called the AppleTV instead? I think this situation is really similar. Would it be neat if Apple did, in fact, manufacture a car? Absolutely. I think it would be amazing. But you can count on one hand the number of successful startup auto manufacturers there are in the world, and even they are having a really hard go of it. I'm perfectly happy to be proven wrong, but I just don't envision a world where Apple has entire buildings full of people designing suspension systems, and transmissions, and rear differentials, and doing crash tests.
Apple replacing the role that, say, Johnson Controls sort of occupies now in the automative space (and they do much more than head units, screens, and software) is a more logical target. They have done similar things over and over by studying an existing market, targeting one or two of its top players, and building better but more niche versions of their products. Remember Rio? Remember Pebble? Remember Nokia? Neither does anyone else. Apple learned everything about these companies and out-designed and out-engineered them. They can certainly do the same to the auto divisions at Honeywell, Siemens, Bosch, or Johnson Controls.
Here is my call on all this. Apple will offer a complete replacement for every CAN bus powered part of an automobile—anything that can be controlled by software, which is a lot now—to any auto manufacturer who wants to work with them. They may even partner with a few companies on vehicles that are completely powered by this experience. Volkswagen is likely one of them, as they are in an arms race right now with Tesla and want to replace their entire product line with EVs by 2030 or something. Apple may even develop battery systems since they have a ton of knowledge built around those now, maybe second only to Tesla.
The pitch to car manufacturers is that they no longer have to develop these systems in house anymore, or hope that Johnson Controls or similar has a part they can use off the shelf that will rapidly go out of date. (Have you sat in a car from just 5 years ago without a screen in the center stack? It's weird. This stuff moves *fast* and car companies cannot keep up.) They can concentrate on whatever they're best at, and let Apple turn their cars into giant iPhones with OTA updating, new features via subscription, and on and on. For any car company not planning to or capable of competing with Tesla, Fisker, or Rivian Apple Car would mean the ability to leapfrog back into relevance. To a small extent this can also extend the life of cars, as they can stay current and "on trend" for longer—because all their best features won't, to paraphrase Steve Jobs, be "fixed in plastic" that can't be easily changed when the new hotness gets invented.
Think of Apple Car as an iPhone, and the car makers are wireless networks. Apple likely even thinks of them in the same way: slow, late to innovate, hobbled by old tech and tied up by regulation. Again, I think the whole Apple Car thing was always a play to own an increasingly large chunk of the systems powering cars made by others, and not an attempt to build a car from the ground up. And again, I would be happy to be wrong.
Apple replacing the role that, say, Johnson Controls sort of occupies now in the automative space (and they do much more than head units, screens, and software) is a more logical target. They have done similar things over and over by studying an existing market, targeting one or two of its top players, and building better but more niche versions of their products. Remember Rio? Remember Pebble? Remember Nokia? Neither does anyone else. Apple learned everything about these companies and out-designed and out-engineered them. They can certainly do the same to the auto divisions at Honeywell, Siemens, Bosch, or Johnson Controls.
Here is my call on all this. Apple will offer a complete replacement for every CAN bus powered part of an automobile—anything that can be controlled by software, which is a lot now—to any auto manufacturer who wants to work with them. They may even partner with a few companies on vehicles that are completely powered by this experience. Volkswagen is likely one of them, as they are in an arms race right now with Tesla and want to replace their entire product line with EVs by 2030 or something. Apple may even develop battery systems since they have a ton of knowledge built around those now, maybe second only to Tesla.
The pitch to car manufacturers is that they no longer have to develop these systems in house anymore, or hope that Johnson Controls or similar has a part they can use off the shelf that will rapidly go out of date. (Have you sat in a car from just 5 years ago without a screen in the center stack? It's weird. This stuff moves *fast* and car companies cannot keep up.) They can concentrate on whatever they're best at, and let Apple turn their cars into giant iPhones with OTA updating, new features via subscription, and on and on. For any car company not planning to or capable of competing with Tesla, Fisker, or Rivian Apple Car would mean the ability to leapfrog back into relevance. To a small extent this can also extend the life of cars, as they can stay current and "on trend" for longer—because all their best features won't, to paraphrase Steve Jobs, be "fixed in plastic" that can't be easily changed when the new hotness gets invented.
Think of Apple Car as an iPhone, and the car makers are wireless networks. Apple likely even thinks of them in the same way: slow, late to innovate, hobbled by old tech and tied up by regulation. Again, I think the whole Apple Car thing was always a play to own an increasingly large chunk of the systems powering cars made by others, and not an attempt to build a car from the ground up. And again, I would be happy to be wrong.
My belief is Apple will make the software and license it to auto makers that pay for it. For Apple to just walk in and start taking over the automotive industry is a tough task, and ultimately; in my opinion, a failing one. The largest auto makers in the world basically built modern nations, and have their grasp of control a lot deeper than vehicles. They own politicians, cities, factories, supply chains, etc. This isn't an emerging technology sector run by passive and stubborn individuals like Blackberry. IF Apple were to make a full fledged automobile for the masses, it will need to cozy up to the power structure in the automobile industry, and I don't think the people that make Apple, "Apple" will want to do that. Be careful what type of Apple you wish for.
Too bad! I really like Volkswagen cars,
But when this tech is available, I will want it, and I will go for whatever brand has it.
They took the longest out off all automakers to support CarPlay in Brazil, they added wireless CarPlay this year.
I will buy a new car in 3 years, whatever brand has full CarPlay support will get my money.
But when this tech is available, I will want it, and I will go for whatever brand has it.
They took the longest out off all automakers to support CarPlay in Brazil, they added wireless CarPlay this year.
I will buy a new car in 3 years, whatever brand has full CarPlay support will get my money.
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"Continue to struggle" ??? I did not know that Apple was manufacturing cars. The rest of the news, back to earth. Apple does NOT manufacture cars and DID NOT announce any news related to it.
Whatever it takes, Apple clearly will not rest until intuitive, muscle-memory-friendly physical buttons and dials are completely extinct in automobile cabins.
I don't think anyone intends the final product to look like what Apple showed off at WWDC. Rather, I think the intent is to show how CarPlay could be expanded across every screen in a car, and how it could be used for everything controllable now by the car's own interface. Actual implementations will be customized by the manufacturers, as BMW (for example) is already doing.
I'd love to see a VW/Apple partnership as I like both brands. They are both focused on tasteful and simple design. So many other car brands are so focused on shiny, tacky design - I just can't stand them.
I'm also a fan of real buttons. However, I see them going away in the future in most cars since a screen with software is a lot cheaper than physical button assemblies.
Yeah... I have wireless Carplay in by BMW. The simple benefit is: just get in the car and keep your iPhone in your pocket.
It's nice to have when doing short distances (up until 15 mins orso) as it does drain the battery.
But 95% of the time I do connect the iPhone to USB when driving simply to charge it. So, I agree.
Right because that's soooooooo similar....life long consumer electronics company produces.....new consumer electronic product vs. the entirely different world of automobiles.
Wireless CarPlay sucks anyway. It completely takes over the wireless signal of your phone, so you can't use WiFi. Makes using HomeKit features from the driveway nearly impossible unless you have good cellular signal, and makes it literally impossible to use any in-vehicle WiFi.
And producing a production vehicle for the road is maybe 1/100th technology related.
Not sure I am excited about an Apple car. Even if becomes true, it might be so expensive that it would be out of reach for most folks. I'm still hoping Tesla can come up with a $30k car that after all the taxes/fees/etc is no more than $37k.
I suppose if people really wanted to make the iPhone comparison here, the real thing they’d need to do is find a quote from a CEO who claimed that Apple would never make their own phone but would continue with just partnering with other phone companies, a la their collaboration with Motorola that produced the ROKR.
Like how Tesla made their first adopter guinea pigs, having them collect data for self driving.
Apple can not only be testing out their software, but maybe loaning their self driving software, collecting data. And once they release their on vehicles all the initial data collection and troubleshooting is done.
Apple can not only be testing out their software, but maybe loaning their self driving software, collecting data. And once they release their on vehicles all the initial data collection and troubleshooting is done.
I will say this: After numerous extremely frustrating experiences with manufacturer infotainment systems in various rental cars, I am fed up. I have spent too much time in parking structures, at stop lights and on the side of the road trying to figure out things that should just be intuitive. I will not buy a car without Apple CarPlay, and once brands start coming out with Apple Car I will be standing in the lobby with a suitcase full of cash.
I do think it will be a lot of work, but some brands will want to differentiate themselves by adopting it.
I have zero problem with ditching every physical button on the dash board if the digital interface is reliable, performant, ergonomic, intuitive and self-descriptive. And beautiful.
Regarding full self-driving cars: They are coming. While AutoPilot and similar systems have had their accidents, humans are BY FAR the weakest link in the driving system. The drunk driver, the texting teenager, the distracted soccer mom, the rubber necker, the aggressive jerk, etc. are all much more dangerous. Tesla publishes their safety statistics every quarter, and in the most recent they had 1 crash every 4.31 million miles when AutoPilot was engaged and 270% more crashes (1 in every 1.59 million miles) with humans driving. They published the histogram of how well AutoPilot keeps the car centered in the lane and it blows away the wandering characteristics of human drivers (just think of all those times you've been snuggly in your lane and the monster truck next to you drifts 20 inches in your direction). And there's argument to be made that Tesla's AutoPilot isn't even the safest system out there because of the lack of LIDAR and additional digital radar sensors.
I do think it will be a lot of work, but some brands will want to differentiate themselves by adopting it.
I have zero problem with ditching every physical button on the dash board if the digital interface is reliable, performant, ergonomic, intuitive and self-descriptive. And beautiful.
Regarding full self-driving cars: They are coming. While AutoPilot and similar systems have had their accidents, humans are BY FAR the weakest link in the driving system. The drunk driver, the texting teenager, the distracted soccer mom, the rubber necker, the aggressive jerk, etc. are all much more dangerous. Tesla publishes their safety statistics every quarter, and in the most recent they had 1 crash every 4.31 million miles when AutoPilot was engaged and 270% more crashes (1 in every 1.59 million miles) with humans driving. They published the histogram of how well AutoPilot keeps the car centered in the lane and it blows away the wandering characteristics of human drivers (just think of all those times you've been snuggly in your lane and the monster truck next to you drifts 20 inches in your direction). And there's argument to be made that Tesla's AutoPilot isn't even the safest system out there because of the lack of LIDAR and additional digital radar sensors.
Been telling people for a year that their goal was never to build a car, but to control the entirety of the in car experience.
Level 3 autonomy, maybe level 4 in the future. Plus a more seamless in car experience across all screens like they showed at WWDC.
By next year, it’s feasible that almost any car can become an apple car on the software side.
Level 3 autonomy, maybe level 4 in the future. Plus a more seamless in car experience across all screens like they showed at WWDC.
By next year, it’s feasible that almost any car can become an apple car on the software side.
I think the preview of this carplay was the tell that the physical Apple Car is canceled.
If software experience is key to Apple’s competitive advantage, why would they give the experience to every car manufacturer and then make their own car with the same experience? And will car manufacturers continue to include ANY version of CarPlay once Apple is a direct competitor?
Zero chance.
Instead, I think this interface is what they intended for their own car. And then, like AppleTV, they realized it was better to have Apple software on everyone's TV no matter the breand and sell subscriptions, than to get into the commodity tv display market where people upgrade every 7-10 years.
Much better to have Apple as the primary interface in everyone’s car. This is a vastly superior platform strategy.
Apple Titan 2014 - 2022
If software experience is key to Apple’s competitive advantage, why would they give the experience to every car manufacturer and then make their own car with the same experience? And will car manufacturers continue to include ANY version of CarPlay once Apple is a direct competitor?
Zero chance.
Instead, I think this interface is what they intended for their own car. And then, like AppleTV, they realized it was better to have Apple software on everyone's TV no matter the breand and sell subscriptions, than to get into the commodity tv display market where people upgrade every 7-10 years.
Much better to have Apple as the primary interface in everyone’s car. This is a vastly superior platform strategy.
Apple Titan 2014 - 2022
Tesla's build quality is already horrible, imagine what it will be when they start cutting costs...