Waiting for the 2018 MBP

[Falhófnir]

Putting one port on each side would require a logic board redesign - or at least a pretty long cable - since there's only one TB3 controller chip in the nTB MBP, instead of one on each side in the TB model. I highly doubt this would happen. I also doubt they would bring additional ports to the cheaper model. In my opinion, the nTB model either stays like it is, or gets discontinued in favor of a cheaper 12"/13" MacBook, maybe coupled with a cheaper starting price for the TB model.

If they added a third (or even dropped one on one side) if it was just USB C and not TB, they wouldn't need a controller (though then you have the confusion over two can do XY while one can only do Y). Yes I think it's a good bet they will start slowly reducing the price of the TB model back towards where the 2015 models were, and have a 13" MB slotting in below it.

Could be. Or else the non-TB is just rebranded.

Possibly they share a design because there weren't the resources to work on three completely separate models concurrently - so the nTB is in effect a stopgap that serves dual purpose of keeping the price of entry of the 13" pro from shooting up ridiculously high and also is attractive to the 13" air audience (in so far as the 2015 model already was). If that's the case I'd expect it to disappear once the 13" MB shows up, and if it sticks around I guess it's there as a permanent option.

When I bought my 13-inch MacBook Pro with Retina display back in 2013 I selected the top option for everything without knowing why, I just wanted the best one.

That was only a 2.8GHz i7 with 8GB RAM and a 1TB SSD. It runs as good today as it did back then. That maxed out price was just £1,732.50

I'm looking to get the 2018 version when it is delivered, but the current 13-inch Macbook Pro with Retina display is £2,799.00 with the top option selected for everything (with TB) just 5 years later. The RAM has doubled and the processor is quicker, but it comes with a 1TB SSD also.

Do we think this trend can continue with mac prices? Surely mobile components should get cheaper over time, not more expensive...?

To a degree the price in GBP is influenced by the rate when they last set the exchange rate prices (October 2016 when the £ was trading at about $1.22) now that it's recovered I would expect to see a modest drop in the price even without a change in the USD base price, and a more substantial drop if they do also start bringing the USD prices back down to earth.

 

[AdamA9]

To a degree the price in GBP is influenced by the rate when they last set the exchange rate prices (October 2016 when the £ was trading at about $1.22) now that it's recovered I would expect to see a modest drop in the price even without a change in the USD base price, and a more substantial drop if they do also start bringing the USD prices back down to earth.

But even so, over £1,000 more expensive for the top model 13-inch now. Staggering. Are other computer prices increasing like this?

 

[CodeJoy]

But even so, over £1,000 more expensive for the top model 13-inch now. Staggering. Are other computer prices increasing like this?

I don't believe they are. RAM prices have been a bit up and down over the past few years, but not nearly enough to explain the difference.

 

[Falhófnir]

But even so, over £1,000 more expensive for the top model 13-inch now. Staggering. Are other computer prices increasing like this?

I agree MB pricing is definitely ludicrous outside of the US and pretty eye watering even there - MacBooks have never been value for money and probably won’t be, but this is almost to the point of pricing themselves out of the market currently. I was just saying a portion of that price increase was down to factors outside Apple’s control, though they should have shaved a little off of the price of the 2017 models as the exchange rate didn’t stay in the low $1.20s for very long at all and the forward guidance has been upwards for quite some time now (currently suggesting about $1.47 by years end). At the end of the day Microsoft are equally bad on pricing (though you could argue the surface books offer more for your money, and they aren’t even trying to price competitively)

 

[han_del_]

iBooks can’t even run 2 GB RAM. In 1999 they came with 32-64 MB. You could unofficially add up to another 512 MB for a max total of 576 MB.

The last iBook maxed out at 1.5 GB, but that was in 2005.

In fact, I woke up thinking I had gotten that wrong. The first thing I did this morn was look it up. Indeed, the first iBook came with an option for 32 or 64MB RAM. I had 32. I remember having trouble playing videos on Quicktime, always blamed the RAM. Do you think it was that or some other reason? Probably hard to say. Anyhow, thanks for the correction.

 

[CodeJoy]

I agree MB pricing is definitely ludicrous outside of the US and pretty eye watering even there - MacBooks have never been value for money and probably won’t be, but this is almost to the point of pricing themselves out of the market currently. I was just saying a portion of that price increase was down to factors outside Apple’s control, though they should have shaved a little off of the price of the 2017 models as the exchange rate didn’t stay in the low $1.20s for very long at all and the forward guidance has been upwards for quite some time now (currently suggesting about $1.47 by years end). At the end of the day Microsoft are equally bad on pricing (though you could argue the surface books offer more for your money, and they aren’t even trying to price competitively)

I often see the argument that MB pricing is so much higher in Europe. And then follows a bunch of misinformation. Currently, a maxed out 13" MBP is $2899 in the US and £2799 in the UK. In the UK, this is including 20% VAT, while in the US I believe the price is excluding any sales tax. To normalise, add 20% to the US price and you're at $3479. Rewind back to May when then conversion rate was around 1.297 USD per GBP. (I don't know when Apple would fix their prices, but May would seem reasonable to me.). This gives an imagined comparison price of £2682. Actual price is £2799, so around 4% higher. Given that Apple fixes prices for 9-12 months at a time, and given that warranty and many other things are different -- I could imagine that a 4% added cost for currency risk etc. is maybe warranted. I think there's a lot to be said about Apple's policy on warranty, repairs, durability etc in general, but that's not the point here. The point is that a 4% higher price given the different market conditions is not... well, not first on my list of what I'd prefer to see changed, even though it would be nice.

I've done the same calculation for some other European countries, and get roughly the same result.

One could ask why prices would be relative to USD at all when Apple's production costs are in China. But they most certainly do internal accounting in USD, so I would assume that it's a relevant comparison.

This isn't to say that I want to defend Apple pricing. I think all of us in this forum are fine with paying a premium for a premium product. The issue occurs when it's a premium price for a non-premium product. What I think many see is that Apple tax has been increasing, while things like utility, fit for purpose, durability, serviceability, etc have been decreasing. Certainly the case for me, where I'm in business for a new laptop, but cost vs performance with Apple has just crept enough outside of the envelope to keep me holding off and considering my options.

 

[AdamA9]

When I bought my 13-inch MacBook Pro with Retina display back in 2013 I selected the top option for everything without knowing why, I just wanted the best one.

That was only a 2.8GHz i7 with 8GB RAM and a 1TB SSD. It runs as good today as it did back then. That maxed out price was just £1,732.50

I'm looking to get the 2018 version when it is delivered, but the current 13-inch Macbook Pro with Retina display is £2,799.00 with the top option selected for everything (with TB) just 5 years later. The RAM has doubled and the processor is quicker, but it comes with a 1TB SSD also.

Do we think this trend can continue with mac prices? Surely mobile components should get cheaper over time, not more expensive...?

Sorry, I've quoted the pre-tax receipt value. It was £2,079 after tax. So comparable is £2,079 > £2,799

 

[Poki]

I often see the argument that MB pricing is so much higher in Europe. And then follows a bunch of misinformation. Currently, a maxed out 13" MBP is $2899 in the US and £2799 in the UK. In the UK, this is including 20% VAT, while in the US I believe the price is excluding any sales tax. To normalise, add 20% to the US price and you're at $3479. Rewind back to May when then conversion rate was around 1.297 USD per GBP. (I don't know when Apple would fix their prices, but May would seem reasonable to me.). This gives an imagined comparison price of £2682. Actual price is £2799, so around 4% higher. Given that Apple fixes prices for 9-12 months at a time, and given that warranty and many other things are different -- I could imagine that a 4% added cost for currency risk etc. is maybe warranted. I think there's a lot to be said about Apple's policy on warranty, repairs, durability etc in general, but that's not the point here. The point is that a 4% higher price given the different market conditions is not... well, not first on my list of what I'd prefer to see changed, even though it would be nice.

That's in the UK, it's worse in Europe though. A fully loaded 13" MBP is € 3.349 here, which translates to US 3.142 once you consider the exchange rate of last June and remove 20% VAT. That's an 8% premium, even before you consider the now much stronger Euro. Once you take the current exchange rate, that translates to US 3.426 without tax, or a hefty 18% premium. Considering the already very high prices of Macs, this is just a little much.

 

[EugW]

In fact, I woke up thinking I had gotten that wrong. The first thing I did this morn was look it up. Indeed, the first iBook came with an option for 32 or 64MB RAM. I had 32. I remember having trouble playing videos on Quicktime, always blamed the RAM. Do you think it was that or some other reason? Probably hard to say. Anyhow, thanks for the correction.

Which OS? If OS 9, I wouldn’t know because I refused to buy a Mac in the OS 9 era.

My first iBook was a 2001 G3 600 and it came with 128 MB. Also, I think I almost immediately upgraded it to 384 MB. I ran it with OS X 10.1. (It shipped dual boot OS 9 and 10.1.)

If you ran OS X it had to have more than 32 GB since OS X didn’t run on 32 GB.

BTW, the 1999 iBooks were horrendously slow for OS X IIRC. I only lasted a year with my 2001 G3 600 but the 1999 iBook started at half that clock speed. I got a G4 1 GHz TiBook a year later in 2002, and ran it with 768 GB RAM.

 

[snortpig]

That would undermine the sales of the TB model. For the same reason they'll never make the TB optional in the higher-specced models - it would be embarrassing if it turned-out that it was only selling well because people weren't given the choice.

It's not like they're forced to publish that info though. They could keep it under their hat, along with the respective repair rates of the 2015, 2016 and 2017 keyboards.

 

[CodeJoy]

That's in the UK, it's worse in Europe though. A fully loaded 13" MBP is € 3.349 here, which translates to US 3.142 once you consider the exchange rate of last June and remove 20% VAT. That's an 8% premium, even before you consider the now much stronger Euro. Once you take the current exchange rate, that translates to US 3.426 without tax, or a hefty 18% premium. Considering the already very high prices of Macs, this is just a little much.

"in Europe"...... you must be talking about one of Austria, Estonia, France or Slovakia. Those are the only countries that both have 20% VAT and also use the Euro. What I'm sure you know, but others may not, is that "Europe" is 30 countries, and all have different market conditions, different currencies although many use EUR, different VAT rates, different tax systems in general, different postal services, logistics, etc etc etc. As much as one might want to, it's not a unified market, not unified conditions, and it doesn't really make sense to say "in Europe" anything unless you say specifically what and where you're talking about.

Which of course applies to my post as well. I've calculated only a few cases, and you'd really have to go much deeper to say anything conclusive. And you still probably wouldn't, without knowing more about Apple internals. (than I do)

I think it's fair to be unhappy with current prices. Or if you want Apple to update prices more often because of currency fluctuations, then that's maybe also fair. But that isn't really the problem. Mac products seem to have a price premium of somewhere between 30-50% over comparable products, and that appears (to me) to be a fairly global issue. That's Apple asking for something like a 3x profit margin compared to other manufacturers. That's imo where you should be focusing, not on whether it's temporarily 4% more in one country or other.

 

[gadgetfreaky]

I agree MB pricing is definitely ludicrous outside of the US and pretty eye watering even there - MacBooks have never been value for money and probably won’t be, but this is almost to the point of pricing themselves out of the market currently. I was just saying a portion of that price increase was down to factors outside Apple’s control, though they should have shaved a little off of the price of the 2017 models as the exchange rate didn’t stay in the low $1.20s for very long at all and the forward guidance has been upwards for quite some time now (currently suggesting about $1.47 by years end). At the end of the day Microsoft are equally bad on pricing (though you could argue the surface books offer more for your money, and they aren’t even trying to price competitively)

I was in Istanbul when my MBP broke. Looked at replacement cost- it was something insane over US prices. Like more than 40% higher when converted to dollars or more. Doesn't make much sense.

 

[Falhófnir]

I often see the argument that MB pricing is so much higher in Europe. And then follows a bunch of misinformation. Currently, a maxed out 13" MBP is $2899 in the US and £2799 in the UK. In the UK, this is including 20% VAT, while in the US I believe the price is excluding any sales tax. To normalise, add 20% to the US price and you're at $3479. Rewind back to May when then conversion rate was around 1.297 USD per GBP. (I don't know when Apple would fix their prices, but May would seem reasonable to me.). This gives an imagined comparison price of £2682. Actual price is £2799, so around 4% higher. Given that Apple fixes prices for 9-12 months at a time, and given that warranty and many other things are different -- I could imagine that a 4% added cost for currency risk etc. is maybe warranted. I think there's a lot to be said about Apple's policy on warranty, repairs, durability etc in general, but that's not the point here. The point is that a 4% higher price given the different market conditions is not... well, not first on my list of what I'd prefer to see changed, even though it would be nice.

I've done the same calculation for some other European countries, and get roughly the same result.

One could ask why prices would be relative to USD at all when Apple's production costs are in China. But they most certainly do internal accounting in USD, so I would assume that it's a relevant comparison.

This isn't to say that I want to defend Apple pricing. I think all of us in this forum are fine with paying a premium for a premium product. The issue occurs when it's a premium price for a non-premium product. What I think many see is that Apple tax has been increasing, while things like utility, fit for purpose, durability, serviceability, etc have been decreasing. Certainly the case for me, where I'm in business for a new laptop, but cost vs performance with Apple has just crept enough outside of the envelope to keep me holding off and considering my options.

With due respect I think it's a bit much to accuse my post of 'misinformation' and then go on to broadly make the same points but in greater detail Re-read my post and you will see I was pointing out the exchange rate was a large part of the reason for the surge in Apple's prices at the end of 2016. The reason the prices are nonetheless ludicrous, is that despite the fact the $/£ variance isn't as great as it would seem most people in the UK didn't get an automatic pay increase to compensate for the devaluation, so in constant terms, the prices now are still hugely overinflated. Again I point out this is out of Apple's control, but what is in their control is model pricing and configurations. By June of 2017, the exchange rate had recovered and steadied enough they should really have been looking to knock £50 off the middle range products (£1,600-£2,100) and £100 off the more expensive ones (£2,100+) if combined with a few adjustments to USD prices now the production lines have settled in and the R&D must be mostly paid off, this could have led to some reasonable savings.

That's in the UK, it's worse in Europe though. A fully loaded 13" MBP is € 3.349 here, which translates to US 3.142 once you consider the exchange rate of last June and remove 20% VAT. That's an 8% premium, even before you consider the now much stronger Euro. Once you take the current exchange rate, that translates to US 3.426 without tax, or a hefty 18% premium. Considering the already very high prices of Macs, this is just a little much.

In fairness, the Euro has traditionally been a much more volatile currency than the pound, and even taking recent events into consideration there is still much more scope for 'big move' events to dramatically move the Euro's value relative to USD compared to the pound. I think that is why Apple prefer to keep a larger cushion for the Euro than they do for the Pound which traditionally is quite inert against the USD, tracking slowly in one direction for a long period of time, and not reacting as violently to economic news or political events. You can see that even now with all the Brexit uncertainty going on - it's nowhere near as volatile as you'd expect, there was just the single large devaluation event and it's now back to the old patterns of tracking slowly towards an equilibrium value...

 

[mendosasenemy]

@AdamA9

I think the next, standard configured top spec MacBook Pro will break the £3,000 mark. Pretty scary. I baulked at paying £2,649 (had a credit of £50.00). However, I know this will give me 5 plus years of use, based on my previous upgrade. That’s the only way I could justify such a cost!!

 

[CodeJoy]

With due respect I think it's a bit much to accuse my post of 'misinformation' and then go on to broadly make the same points but in greater detail

I didn't intend to accuse your post of anything. Sorry if it read that way. I mostly agree with what you wrote, and wanted to add actual numbers that people can either verify and agree with, or find gaps and point them out.

Another post just referred to 40% higher prices or more when compared to dollars, and I've just not seen any evidence of that myself, and I can't quite figure out how one would calculate to reach that conclusion.

 

[Poki]

In fairness, the Euro has traditionally been a much more volatile currency than the pound, and even taking recent events into consideration there is still much more scope for 'big move' events to dramatically move the Euro's value relative to USD compared to the pound. I think that is why Apple prefer to keep a larger cushion for the Euro than they do for the Pound which traditionally is quite inert against the USD, tracking slowly in one direction for a long period of time, and not reacting as violently to economic news or political events. You can see that even now with all the Brexit uncertainty going on - it's nowhere near as volatile as you'd expect, there was just the single large devaluation event and it's now back to the old patterns of tracking slowly towards an equilibrium value...

You're probably right. If Apple continues this trend and adds 8% to the current exchange rate at the time of launch, it should still be roughly 10% cheaper in Euro countries, given a similar US price. Since the US price might be just a little lower this time (maybe that's just wishful thinking), this could easily translate to savings north of €300 - not too bad.

Having said that, I'd pay whatever they charge anyway. I'm quite happy with the course they took the MacBook Pro, and even though it's a lot more expensive than some comparable Windows-based notebooks, I'm okay to pay their prices.

 

[afir93]

That would undermine the sales of the TB model. For the same reason they'll never make the TB optional in the higher-specced models - it would be embarrassing if it turned-out that it was only selling well because people weren't given the choice.

Not necessarily. Right now, the reason why the TB 13" is 300€ more expensive than the nonTB 13" isn't solely the TB, but also because it has 2 more ports, a much different cooling architecture with different fans and therefore a more powerful CPU/GPU. I believe even if you max out the nonTB 13", you'll pay more than for the base TB 13" but still have a less powerful CPU than the TB 13".

Let me preface this by saying that I don't expect it to happen... but if Apple were to make the inclusion of the TB independent of the rest of the specs, a lot of people would still buy it because it would be a much cheaper upgrade than it is now. Say the TB model is only 50-100€ more expensive than a nonTB model with otherwise equal specs. I sure would spend that additional 50-100€ on top of a 1500-3000€ laptop to get a multitouch Retina OLED screen with tons of customizability on my MBP instead of the function keys which I never use, and I'd imagine many people would do the same. But everyone who prefers fn keys could still get the exact configuration he wants without sacrifices in CPU/thermal architecture. It would be a win-win for everyone.

Do many people choose the 2TB MacBook Pro configuration? Or do many people choose to get 4TB on the iMac Pro? Probably not, but the option is still there for those who need/want it. This fundamentally wouldn't be any different if the TB was a simple "spec" update that you could configure.

 

[Falhófnir]

I didn't intend to accuse your post of anything. Sorry if it read that way. I mostly agree with what you wrote, and wanted to add actual numbers that people can either verify and agree with, or find gaps and point them out.

Another post just referred to 40% higher prices or more when compared to dollars, and I've just not seen any evidence of that myself, and I can't quite figure out how one would calculate to reach that conclusion.

Oh sorry, mea culpa - I read it as you'd seen a lot of misinformation like what I'd written! Yes broadly prices are out of Apple's control (outside of setting USD prices and configurations) unless they were to take a loss on many of their products sold abroad (in which case I expect they wouldn't remain the world's most valuable company very long!). Personally my biggest hope is a cheaper 15 inch MacBook of some description - I like having the bigger screen and I like to indulge myself on a mac, but what I use it for doesn't make any real use of a dGPU, ultra fast SSD, etc. so if not cheaper overall I'd prefer to prioritise money into having a larger SSD over other features that will largely sit idle.
[doublepost=1522945599][/doublepost]

You're probably right. If Apple continues this trend and adds 8% to the current exchange rate at the time of launch, it should still be roughly 10% cheaper in Euro countries, given a similar US price. Since the US price might be just a little lower this time (maybe that's just wishful thinking), this could easily translate to savings north of €300 - not too bad.

Having said that, I'd pay whatever they charge anyway. I'm quite happy with the course they took the MacBook Pro, and even though it's a lot more expensive than some comparable Windows-based notebooks, I'm okay to pay their prices.

I'm much the same, as I have said in an above post, my usage could quite reasonably be accommodated by a 12" macbook or nTB pro, or even an alternative PC but I pony up the cash for the 15 because I like the screen size and I like MacOS to work on. C'est la vie I suppose!

 

[CodeJoy]

Personally my biggest hope is a cheaper 15 inch MacBook of some description - I like having the bigger screen and I like to indulge myself on a mac, but what I use it for doesn't make any real use of a dGPU, ultra fast SSD, etc.

I was hoping for something similar and a modest price drop too, until I realised that 2 more cores and Vega Mobile are nearly mandatory, and knowing Apple, that might not end up decreasing the price at all...

 

[snortpig]

Not necessarily. Right now, the reason why the TB 13" is 300€ more expensive than the nonTB 13" isn't solely the TB, but also because it has 2 more ports, a much different cooling architecture with different fans and therefore a more powerful CPU/GPU. I believe even if you max out the nonTB 13", you'll pay more than for the base TB 13" but still have a less powerful CPU than the TB 13".

Let me preface this by saying that I don't expect it to happen... but if Apple were to make the inclusion of the TB independent of the rest of the specs, a lot of people would still buy it because it would be a much cheaper upgrade than it is now. Say the TB model is only 50-100€ more expensive than a nonTB model with otherwise equal specs. I sure would spend that additional 50-100€ on top of a 1500-3000€ laptop to get a multitouch Retina OLED screen with tons of customizability on my MBP instead of the function keys which I never use, and I'd imagine many people would do the same. But everyone who prefers fn keys could still get the exact configuration he wants without sacrifices in CPU/thermal architecture. It would be a win-win for everyone.

Do many people choose the 2TB MacBook Pro configuration? Or do many people choose to get 4TB on the iMac Pro? Probably not, but the option is still there for those who need/want it. This fundamentally wouldn't be any different if the TB was a simple "spec" update that you could configure.

This would be great. Now that the touchbar is established and a bit more mature, maybe it has enough momentum to be an optional upgrade. Like you said, people who want top specs but also the function keys do exist (I am one) and this would be the best of both worlds.

 

[EugW]

This would be great. Now that the touchbar is established and a bit more mature, maybe it has enough momentum to be an optional upgrade. Like you said, people who want top specs but also the function keys do exist (I am one) and this would be the best of both worlds.

If they make the Touch Bar an optional upgrade, it will fail miserably, considering it still hasn't really "succeeded" in my opinion.

 

[Falhófnir]

If they make the Touch Bar an optional upgrade, it will fail miserably, considering it still hasn't really "succeeded" in my opinion.

It's the sort of thing they have to eventually go all in on or else drop entirely imo - for there to be enough incentive for developers to really make the most of it in their apps. Being on just their (I would imagine) two lowest volume laptops will probably keep it a niche feature, and making it optional would probably kill it (particularly if it is an extra cost option).

 

[Gata]

I think if they made like the level of modularity that something like BetterTouchTool offers standard, then the Touch Bar could really shine.

 

[afir93]

I think if they made like the level of modularity that something like BetterTouchTool offers standard, then the Touch Bar could really shine.

That's what I'm thinking aswell. A lot of the criticism towards the current TB is about what it can't do (yet) or that it doesn't have so many useful applications. And these things can be improved.

The TB is one of the areas where I think that the Apple Developer Guidelines are a bit hindering, because they forbid a lot of interesting stuff that one can put on the TB with 3rd party apps like BetterTouchTool. If Apple allows a bit more freedom here and gives developers some more tools to make it easier implementing good features for the TB, then the common counter-argument that "there aren't many apps that take full advantage of it" could easily fade away over time. Add some hardware improvements on top of that like a higher resolution or haptic feedback lie with the trackpad, and the TB could easily become more widely accepted and useful.

 

[Poki]

Damn, just stumbled across Dell's website, and that new XPS 13 is much thinner, smaller, lighter, faster and offers a larger battery compared to a TB 13" MBP - and that at just a little over half the price for the 512GB / 16GB configuration. Not that I'm going to buy that thing, but no matter which PC brand website I look at, it makes waiting for Apple's MacBook Pro update harder and harder.