Waiting for the 2018 MBP

[Falhófnir]

According to Intel Cannonlake is on track for early 2018. See updated article
https://www.extremetech.com/computing/256127-rumors-imply-intel-pushed-10nm-cannon-lake-back-2018

I don’t believe cannonlake is going to have any SKUs suitable for the MacBook Pro, I think Ice Lake in 2019 will be the first 10nm chips in the U and H series lineups. 8th gen U series look to come under ‘Kaby lake refresh’ and I assume H series will still be ‘Coffee Lake’ - both still on 14nm. So we’re really looking for confirmation they can scale up production to these types of chip on schedule

 

[Populus]

@aldenh Thank you!!

Quoting from ExtremeTech:

Intel has reached out to ET with the following comment: “We’ll be shipping our first 10-nanometer products near the end of the year beginning with a lower volume SKU followed by a volume ramp in the first half of 2018

Ok, now definitely I'm going to wait.
Intel is now under pressure due to AMD Ryzen, and upcoming Ryzen 2

 

[Poki]

The 15W Cannonlake chips which were released last month seem to be quite a bit faster than I expected, reaching Geekbench multicore scores of up to 15.000. It seems like it's not unrealistic to expect the next high end 13 inch MBP to outperform the current 15" MBP in CPU intensive tasks, while the 15 inch might get a sizeable boost in performance too, going from four to six cores. After ruling out the smaller MBP for years due to not offering the processing power I need, I finally might have the option to go for the smaller, more portable notebook.

For the 2018 update, all the parts seem to fall into place in an amazing way. After what feels like ages, Intel is able to deliver quad core chips powerful and efficient enough to be considered to be used in a 13" MacBook Pro. External Thunderbolt 3 GPU's are now officially supported, and should be readily available by the time the new models are released. And since the I/O is already extremely fast, all that is left is for Apple to create a model offering 512 GB of storage and 16 GB of RAM for a decent price (say, €2000 or so). The last part might be wishful thinking though.

Seems like my 2009 15" MacBook Pro just needs to keep working another 6 – 9 months before it can finally retire. More than 3000 days of use is a nice run I'd say. But I have to say, I'm looking forward to getting a notebook with a screen that doesn't show magenta lines in all bright areas, with a battery that lasts more than 30 minutes and with a form factor and weight that I'd actually want to lug around.

So yeah, the waiting game might be almost over!

 

[unobtainium]

Hmm, I thought Cannonlake chips suitable for the MBP wouldn't be released, and that MBPs were likely to get a Kaby Lake refresh instead. Either way, I'm guessing we see a spec bump around March.

 

[Naimfan]

I just hope they get the keyboard sorted out and shrink the trackpad. The 2016 I have is getting shipped off on Wednesday to have the top case replaced; per the service person, Apple is likely to use a 2017 model top case, which I've read here has an improved keyboard mechanism. One can only hope.

 

[Tuff Gnarl]

What can we expect from Coffee Lake and Cannonlake with regards to the nTB 13" (provided that it remains in the lineup)? And what would be the main reasons for holding on until next year's refresh?

Coffee Lake could introduce a quad-core 13", with the drawback of having a GT2 GPU and worse single-core performance? Given that the Cannonlake processors are released in time, Apple might skip Coffee Lake and go straight to Cannonlake. What could this introduce to the 13" (other than LPDDR4) in terms of iGPU and CPU? Would it be unreasonable to expect a Cannonlake quad-core with equal single-core performance to that of the i5's used in today's 13" (eg. a 2.3 GHz quad-core) together with GT3e?

 

[Poki]

Yes, the 28W and 45W chips suitable for the TB 13“ MBP and the 15“ MBP will be Coffee Lake and Kaby Lake refresh, respectively. However, after seeing the benchmarks of the 15W Cannon Lake chips, I‘m optimistic. These chips sacrifice just a little single core performance for a roughly 40% multicore boost.

The bad news is that the 13“ nTB model will probably lose GPU performance, going from the Iris Plus 640 to the UHD620. I still expect the TB model to keep the more powerful iGPU, since there‘s a lot of power headroom compared to the 15W chips. Considering the way the turbo boost works, I expect the other models to keep comparable graphics performance and single core CPU performance, while gaining significantly in multicore performance.

Granted, that‘s not the huge upgrade Intel is promising for years, and the lacking support of LPDDR4 hurts. But for me, this update finally pushes the TB 13“ MBP in a performance class I can work with. If Intel doesn‘t screw up again, that is.

 

[kiranmk2]

Yes, the 28W and 45W chips suitable for the TB 13“ MBP and the 15“ MBP will be Coffee Lake and Kaby Lake refresh, respectively. However, after seeing the benchmarks of the 15W Cannon Lake chips, I‘m optimistic. These chips sacrifice just a little single core performance for a roughly 40% multicore boost.

The bad news is that the 13“ nTB model will probably lose GPU performance, going from the Iris Plus 640 to the UHD620. I still expect the TB model to keep the more powerful iGPU, since there‘s a lot of power headroom compared to the 15W chips. Considering the way the turbo boost works, I expect the other models to keep comparable graphics performance and single core CPU performance, while gaining significantly in multicore performance.

Granted, that‘s not the huge upgrade Intel is promising for years, and the lacking support of LPDDR4 hurts. But for me, this update finally pushes the TB 13“ MBP in a performance class I can work with. If Intel doesn‘t screw up again, that is.

I don't think we'll see Cannon Lake for the MBPs. the '8th generation' of Core processors consists of Cannon Lake, Coffee Lake and Kaby Lake R. Cannon Lake will likely only come to the MB, probably bringing a big performance boost in CPU power and battery life (haven't heard anything about GT2 GPU compared to KL), the 13" MBP will get Coffee Lake quad core chip and GT3e GPU (likely Iris 740 for nTB and Iris 750 for TB - again I haven't heard anything about GPU performance) and the 15" MBP will get hexacore CPU and GT3e (plus discrete GPU). There's no real news about clockspeed of the quad and hexacore chips with GT3e but we'll probably find out in a few months time.

The MBP will finally get 10 nm chips (along LPDDR4 support) with the 9th generation Core chips in 2019.

 

[Populus]

The MBP will finally get 10 nm chips (along LPDDR4 support) with the 9th generation Core chips in 2019.

And that's when I'll buy my new MacBook Pro 13" nTB. Hopefully there will be non touchbar models, by then...

Yes, the Back to School promo just ended today, and I didn't purchased the MacBook Pro.
One or two years more with my 2010 MacBook Pro... I don't know if I made the right choice...

 

[preppy]

And that's when I'll buy my new MacBook Pro 13" nTB. Hopefully there will be non touchbar models, by then...

Yes, the Back to School promo just ended today, and I didn't purchased the MacBook Pro.
One or two years more with my 2010 MacBook Pro... I don't know if I made the right choice...

I'm in the same boat with my mid-2010....just not sure if I am doing the right thing each year holding out...but it keeps on kicking and pulling through anything I am throwing at it...

 

[Sgt93]

I'm still using a mid 2009 13" MBP. I will pick up a 2018 only because the OS cannot be updated any further. This MBP will be missed, but will still be used my my youngest.

 

[Populus]

I will use mine as a seed box, and media centre.

By the way, do you expect your next MacBook Pro to last another 8-10 years? That's my intention, but sadly, I think that won't be the case...

 

[benface]

I will use mine as a seed box, and media centre.

By the way, do you expect your next MacBook Pro to last another 8-10 years? That's my intention, but sadly, I think that won't be the case...

I never expected any MacBook Pro to last 8-10 years. The longest I’ve had one is 3 years, although I plan on keeping this one another year so it’ll be 4.

 

[kiranmk2]

I didn't expect my late 2008 MB to last this long. I was planning on getting a 2013/4 MBP, but they were too expensive at launch and now they are a bit too outdated in terms of features (HEVC support, new form factor, USB-C, ultrafast SSD) to be worth the costs they are going for on eBay.

I think the older models had such a long lifespan as they could be upgraded - mine started with 2 GB Ram and a 160 HDD and now has 8 GB Ram and a 256 GB SSD - if upgrades weren't possible it would have been out the door years ago. I would hope to get 6-7 years out of a laptop, but these days I think that will mean maxing out the RAM and probably upping the SSD from stock.

 

[ugru]

I think the older models had such a long lifespan as they could be upgraded - mine started with 2 GB Ram and a 160 HDD and now has 8 GB Ram and a 256 GB SSD - if upgrades weren't possible it would have been out the door years ago.

That is why they (not only Apple, but others do it also) put glue everywhere and solder RAM and SSD. It's planned obsolescence at it's finest.

I have a 2010 MacPro and I changed every relevant piece inside: CPU, GPU, RAM, Opticals, USB3. I plan to keep it for as long as possible. Guess I am not the ideal client for ...

 

[MBX]

Coffee Lake just launched. Possible end of year specs bump for MBP's?

 

[doitdada]

Coffee Lake availability is scarce and may be like Broadwell, a show off piece before Cannonlake and Icelake will be released with 10nm transistors. It's more of a PR move to show that Intel isn't loosing ground to AMDs offensive with more cores. It actually got pushed earlier out, and I guess the next revision will happen at WWDC since they are releasing Cannonlake in the second half of 2018.

The single core clock performance is the almost identical, it is more a bump in cores, it will probably just drain more battery in a laptop chassis. It is good for desktops, but I guess Icelake especially will be the refined revision we are all waiting for. Right now I would just buy a MBP 2016 baseline refurbed for cheap and wait until you get the reports from 10nm CPUs coming out next year.

Kaby Lake and Skylake was available from launch, but Broadwell was an almost invisible CPU on the market, if history will rhyme this time Coffee Lake will just be a enthusiastic novelty.

 

[yukari]

That is why they (not only Apple, but others do it also) put glue everywhere and solder RAM and SSD. It's planned obsolescence at it's finest.

I have a 2010 MacPro and I changed every relevant piece inside: CPU, GPU, RAM, Opticals, USB3. I plan to keep it for as long as possible. Guess I am not the ideal client for ...

Just curious, how did you change CPU and GPU?
I would love to change them on my 2011 MPB to keep it going

 

[Populus]

Just curious, how did you change CPU and GPU?
I would love to change them on my 2011 MPB to keep it going

Well, he said Mac Pro, it is possible to upgrade an old Mac Pro even it's CPU and GPU.

That's impossible for a MacBook Pro.

 

[Sgt93]

I'm going to give my mid-09 13" MBP to my 11 year old when I replace it with a 2018. I wish I could upgrade the OS from El Capitan, but as a whole, it still runs and operates great! I will go with a 15" this time as my eyes are not getting any younger.

 

[CmdrLaForge]

And that's when I'll buy my new MacBook Pro 13" nTB. Hopefully there will be non touchbar models, by then...

Yes, the Back to School promo just ended today, and I didn't purchased the MacBook Pro.
One or two years more with my 2010 MacBook Pro... I don't know if I made the right choice...

Did you change the hdd to ssd? Then yes you made the right choice. You wouldn’t see a lot of performance improvement and the old keyboard and connectivity is a lot better.

 

[ugru]

Just curious, how did you change CPU and GPU?
I would love to change them on my 2011 MPB to keep it going

I was talking in general about older Macs, in particular about my MacPro as an example.

Older MBP, pre retina era, could be upgraded too. You could swap the battery, since it was removable; you could add RAM, you could swap the optical drive for a SSD and/or the HD for a SSD.

But the CPU and GPU on a laptop AFAIK were soldered.

 

[jsnuff1]

Still can't believe we probably wont see 32GB of ram until 2019...thats 8 years after 16GB ram on 2011 MBPs.

Nearly a decade to double the ram on a top of the line consumer laptop?? Man...Moores law is definitely over...

Thank god i got the 2012-2017 MBP upgrade for "free" and can easily wait it out till 2019 now.

 

[simonmet]

I'm going to give my mid-09 13" MBP to my 11 year old when I replace it with a 2018. I wish I could upgrade the OS from El Capitan, but as a whole, it still runs and operates great! I will go with a 15" this time as my eyes are not getting any younger.

And the newer retina screens let you change the apparent “looks like” resolution via scaling so you can make it look very zoomed if you want.

The screen quality on recent models is so far ahead of pre 2012 models it’ll be like you have a new pair of eyes!

 

[Sgt93]

And the newer retina screens let you change the apparent “looks like” resolution via scaling so you can make it look very zoomed if you want.

The screen quality on recent models is so far ahead of pre 2012 models it’ll be like you have a new pair of eyes!

I'm excited for the improvements for sure. Thanks for the info.