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iPhone 17 Weaker demand for Air and fold
- Thread starter gadget123
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IIRC the MacBook Air didn't sell so hot either when it was introduced. So I really hope Apple will continue to refine it and to not give up on it. That being said, I was at the ATT store getting a new sim and playing around with it I get the impression that it is a solid build phone that looks great. I can probably live the with camera, but the speakers sounded like a Temu phone. There are limits to what type of speakers that will work on it due to the thinness, but Apple would need to redesign the speakers or give us an equalizer in the settings for later iterations. I was very close to returning my iPPM4 due to how bad the speakers sounded initially but with the latest update they sound acceptable, still not as good as the IPP it was replacing, but acceptable. I am assuming they did something with the sound profile or I just got used to it.
Anybody who read that tweet and thinks “yeah, this makes sense” clearly failed elementary school math. Don’t be lazy, at least try the numbers in your head. Don’t just accept it. You don’t need a calculator.
Nikkei’s info is iPhone Air represents 10-15% out of 85-90 million units of the entire 2025 lineup during its lifetime.
If Air parts will be cut down to 10% starting November, how can Air possibly reach 20 million? It wasn’t even 20 million before the cut.
Total Air production over its lifetime is expected to be less than 2 million.
There are a lot of people who are just happy. I don’t want an Air. I don’t criticise it either, it’s a feat of engineering but not for me. And I really don’t want a folding phone (or at least not on the vertical axis). I’m sure I’m not alone.
Yeah I’ll trust Max over the gossip rag that also claimed the iPhone X was flopping and Apple cut orders due to lack of demand lol
Apple sells like 200+ million phones a year (232 million in 2023, if what I am looking at is correct). Where are you getting 85-90 million units for the 2025 lineup? Obviously some are going to be "last year's model" but not 135-140 million of them.
10-15% of 200-230 million works out to 20 million pretty easily.
Let's say those numbers for 85-90 million units are for 2H'25 only.
Air is 15% of 90 million, which is 13.5 million units.
Air has been cut down to 10% starting November. There's no way it was 20 million before the cut.
But they don’t know that because the Air has the same A19 Pro Chip and same 12gb ram as the 17 Pro Max. So how would they know without testing it out for 2 weeks.
By the way games play excellent on the iPhone Air. It just drains the battery because the Air battery capacity is way smaller.
iPhone Air Battery: 3,100 mAh 🪫
iPhone 17 Pro Max Battery: 5,000 mAh🔋
To be clear, I am not claiming the tweet is accurate, because I have no earthly idea, but unless I am missing something (and I very well may be, it's been a day) "Apple was planning to make ~21-22 million iPhone Airs over the product's lifetime, cut it by 10% and and is now planning to make ~19-20 million iPhone Airs" absolutely tracks with a universe where Apple is planning to sell say, 220 million 2025-series iPhones this year.
I Sell phones for a living. I have several returns and full inventory. As soon as people hear there is 1 camera, lesser battery life and a singular speaker, the nail gets driven right the Air's coffin.
My dad bought an Air and loves it. He is not into technology and is 59. Target market right there.
You are sort of proving my point. You are referencing people looking at a spec sheet vs hands on use. Obviously that is a real problem for Apple considering most people probably order their phones so only look at specs.
First, the cut is by 90% according to Nikkei, so the resulting target is now only 10% of previous. That random tweet assumes a 5% drop with no source.
Let's walk through the numbers.
Assume 85-90 million units are for 2H'25 only. They represent the 17/Air series.
If 15% is the proportion of Air, then it means 13.5 million units of Air this calendar year. We divide by 5 months since we know ramp up must begin by August for stock to hit shelves in September. That means on average, 2.7 million units of Air are assembled per month.
If August, September, October is 2.7M each, we have 8.1 million total units produced today. November and after, production would only be 0.27M each month. That means 2.7M total from November 2025 to August 2026.
New total lifetime is 10.8M units of Air.
Regarding the mix of old and new models, even at the tail end of the cycle, the current models typically represent about 2/3 of sales. About 1/3 will be n-1 or n-2.
Alright, I did clearly miss something! I read "cut 10%", not "cut to 10%". (Told you it's been a day 😂 ) Carry on.
You recall correctly. There were hair-on-fire reports following its release of it lacking features, being a flop in the first few months, that Jobs had lost it by sacrificing function for form, etc. Fast forward ~decade and it became THE Apple laptop. It is now their best selling computer and when you say MacBook to the overwhelming majority of people it is the one they think of.
Will the Air become THE iPhone? I doubt it as I think many people overestimate their need for battery/camera/speaker. I also think until you hold and use it, even for a bit, you don't "get it". Time will of course tell, but I have little doubt that they will iterate on this model and we will see an Air II, III, and hopefully beyond.
All that said, I'm off to hike with my dogs and enjoy the freeing feeling of basically not having a phone in my pocket at all 😉
Ya! Everyone I know and myself included watches videos with Air Pods or headphones...why on earth would you want to watch videos using external speakers when you can use Air Pods which are a much better experience for you and anybody around you who doesn't want to hear your videos. So no, I don't think the average Joe cares too much about speakers. Plus have you heard the speaker on the Air, it's really not that bad.
Here's the truth about average joes (I prefer the term non-techies or normies). They might be persuaded by a salesperson that they need multiple cameras but then they will end up using only the default camera. Both sides of the above debate are not mutually exclusive.
No, MacBook Air sold very well.
MacBook Air aflutter: demand stays strong, sold out often
Thintresting move, Steve! Be it marketing or design, the MacBook Air is hotter …
arstechnica.com
MBA compromises made sense because the weight difference was very noticeable. It was 1-2 lbs lighter.
iPhone Air - we're talking only a 2 oz. difference, which for the compromises make no sense to most buyers.
The only real issue I'm having with the air is that it's top heavy, I've dropped it way more than I did the heavier pro phones of the past, fortunately only the glass screen protector broke, but I'm not liking the overall trend of phones weight shifting like this rather than in a more uniform way. Android phones are doing it too.
It really comes down to what you prioritize. There is no way though that you can hold a 17 PM or virtually any other model iPhone in one hand and the Air in the other and not notice a pretty dramatic difference. That matters a great deal to some and not at all to others. This is a case where numbers on a screen or spec sheet don’t even come close to telling the tale.
Uh, let's actually do the math then.
If Air is 10% of 85 million units, which... you have seen is the underside of the numbers by Nikkei, makes it 8.5 million units.
...barely one month after release.
We have 2 months left before the end of the year. If demand for Air remains... as weak as it is right now, safe estimate it can meet 20 million units this year, right? Or are we still failing math? Or are you saying demand will sharply drop right now and absolutely no one in the entire world will ever purchase a single iPhone Air past this point?
Where is this 20 million coming from?
Nikkei's estimate of 85-90 million was for the entire 17/Air lineup for 2H'25. This is consistent with estimates from Morgan Stanley and Kuo.
15% of that 90 mil imputes 13.5 million units for calendar year 2025. That assumes zero production cuts, which we now know are happening in November 2025. That cut is by 90%.
Air demand is extremely weak right now. Some people thought China would be Air's savior. It's widely available across all 50 stores in China regardless of color or storage.
Again, I'm sure they wish it was selling better, but I also believe it's an acceptable loss to them as it's bringing people into the store (a new iPhone model gets lots of free media impressions) to check it out; people who are then perhaps buying iPhone 17s or iPhone 17 Pros.
Let's reverse the math then. If you're saying Air is 13.5 million units for 2025... and now we are only making 10% of that, that means there will only be 1.35 million Air units in 2025, right?
That seems to account for 3% of the total sales of iPhones this year.
So Apple will only sell 45 million units of all possible iPhones in 25H2?
How is that 15% more than iPhone 16 lineup, which shipped 90 million units in 24H2?
So it's either we are mathing wrong or someone is reporting bogus numbers.