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iPhone 17 Weaker demand for Air and fold
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I've said this in another thread, but not only will there be another iPhone Air, it'll be the "standard" phone next year. The Air isn't a test run for the foldable, it's getting people ready for it being the "main" option next year.
Multiple rumors say the mainline "iPhone 18" is coming out in Spring 2027, not Fall 2026. I predict the lineup next year:
This allows Apple to raise prices without raising prices. Air 2 stays the same price, but the cheapest phone you can buy in the fall will start at $100 more than it did this year. And if people are worried about battery life or whatever and get upsold to an 18 Pro, that's great from Apple's perspective.
- iPhone Ultra (Foldable) - $1999+
- iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max - $1099/$1199
- iPhone Air 2 (now with second camera, second speaker, and maybe improved battery) - $999
- iPhone 18 replaces the "e" line, comes out in spring - $799 ($699 option goes away)
Feel free to bookmark and come back and laugh at me in 11 months if I'm wrong
The big problem with that theory is we knew about split launches all the way back in 2019. So it can’t possibly have anything to do the with iPhone Air.
Split launches were already planned for 2021 because Apple introduced four devices in 2020. There was a Pro/Max and mini/base line up. Apple would launch Pro stuff first then regular models in the spring. But one leg of the table failed - the iPhone mini.
Today, we finally have four stable legs again iPhone Pro/Max, iPhone base, and annual launches of iPhone E. The iPhone Air has nothing to do with split launches. How could it, given its apparent commercial failure?
Analyst: Apple to Release Four iPhones in Fall 2020 With 5G Connectivity and OLED Displays
Apple will release four new iPhone models during its fall update cycle, all of which will support 5G connectivity, according to JPMorgan analyst...
www.macrumors.com
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First of all I prefaced with IIRC(If I recall correctly, in this case I can admit I wasn't correct), I never stated that it was a matter of fact. I'd just assume that it sold worst than the White/Black and Pros at the time simply because when I was in college I never saw one. Second I never said that THIS Air was ready for primetime. And the speakers are terrible, junk. And it needed at least a 2nd camera with a macro function.No, MacBook Air sold very well.
MacBook Air aflutter: demand stays strong, sold out often
Thintresting move, Steve! Be it marketing or design, the MacBook Air is hotter …arstechnica.com
MBA compromises made sense because the weight difference was very noticeable. It was 1-2 lbs lighter.
iPhone Air - we're talking only a 2 oz. difference, which for the compromises make no sense to most buyers.
I think my theory makes a lot more sense than just pushing back the 18 to the spring because we're also releasing the foldable. Especially if the Air 2 has a second camera, second speaker, and no competition with the 18 because it hasn't been released yet. The battery life is already equivalent per testing (I think the base 17 got 10 minutes more battery life than the Air in the video I watched), it just doesn't look like it on the spec sheet.The big problem with that theory is we knew about split launches all the way back in 2019. So it can’t possibly have anything to do the with iPhone Air.
Split launches were already planned for 2021 because Apple introduced four devices in 2020. There was a Pro/Max and mini/base line up. Apple would launch Pro stuff first then regular models in the spring. But one leg of the table failed - the iPhone mini.
Today, we finally have four stable legs again iPhone Pro/Max, iPhone base, and annual launches of iPhone E. The iPhone Air has nothing to do with split launches. How could it, given its apparent commercial failure?
Analyst: Apple to Release Four iPhones in Fall 2020 With 5G Connectivity and OLED Displays
Apple will release four new iPhone models during its fall update cycle, all of which will support 5G connectivity, according to JPMorgan analyst...
But check back in 11 months! I'll happily admit I was wrong if I am.
Can’t find the video, as I side-clicked on it yesterday while watching something else. He was a white English-speaking guy, probably in his late 20s - early 30s, but I think I have remembered all of his main comments well.
Split launches are expected as the lineup grows. Does MacBook Pro launch at the same time as MacBook Air?
Additional features on the Air are a big "if." And at $999, consumers are likely cross shopping between Air and $1,099 Pro, not $799 base.
I'm happy to revisit in 12 months to see the outcome. But we've heard of this split launch rumor for a long time and it started way before Air or even Plus existed.
I was thinking about this earlier today - is cost even a main factor in purchase decisions these days given the vast majority of consumers (in the US at least) aren't buying iPhones outright? We're talking about the cost of a coffee or two per month in payments to go from a base 17 to a 17 PM. I think this is partially why the Pro line sells so well. "So I can get all the best features for $X more per month? I'll take that one."
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I think you’ve hit the nail on the head. It’s the same here in the UK and presumable mainland Europe: most people just tank the cost over a 36 month contract, at which point an extra £3 doesn’t make much difference.
With regards to some of the above posts, the 16e and the SE before it sit at a valuable price point for Apple: corporate sales. They’ll be selling these by the pallet-load to businesses who want to issue staff phones who don’t want the security compromises of Android. Everyone at my workplace with a work phone has an SE2. They may not sell many to consumers but that’s not the point of its existence.
It would be a shame if the Air turns out to be a one-off. All you’re going to get for the next decade from owners like me is ‘why did they kill such a great device?!’. But it also might be an A/B test to see if the public cares more about design or utility. This will directly influence whether the iPhone 20 is a kitchen sink or a living room vase.