iPhone 17 Weaker demand for Air and fold

[JPack]

Let's reverse the math then. If you're saying Air is 13.5 million units for 2025... and now we are only making 10% of that, that means there will only be 1.35 million Air units in 2025, right?

That seems to account for 3% of the total sales of iPhones this year.

So Apple will only sell 45 million units of all possible iPhones in 25H2?

How is that 15% more than iPhone 16 lineup, which shipped 90 million units in 24H2?

So it's either we are mathing wrong or someone is reporting bogus numbers.

No of course not. You're assuming 90 million represents all iPhones sold. That number only represents iPhone 17/Air produced in 2H'25. A good 40-50% right now being produced and sold are still iPhone 16 and older. Apple is still making and carriers are still selling iPhone 14 even.

90 million represents only 17/Air series, which weren't even available for sale until late September.

 

[bill-p]

No of course not. You're assuming 90 million represents all iPhones sold. That number only represents iPhone 17/Air produced in 2H'25. A good 40-50% right now being produced and sold are still iPhone 16 and older. Apple is still making and carriers are still selling iPhone 14 even.

90 million represents only 17/Air series, which weren't even available for sale until late September.

Yeah, but even with the math, it's 1.35 millions of Air units sold this year, which equates to 45 millions of iPhone 17 lineup overall.

That's a sharp 50% drop of sales of 17 lineup over 16, not a 15% increase. You're admitting it yourself: perhaps a lot of the sales are coming from 16 units. But then no one should be claiming that iPhone 17 is selling 15% better than iPhone 16.

So that's why a 90% production drop does not add up. It makes the 15% increase statement nonsensical. Unless then we also want to further claim that iPhone Air accounts for only 1.5% of total iPhone 17 sales, but we both know demand is not that weak.

 

[JPack]

Yeah, but even with the math, it's 1.35 millions of Air units sold this year, which equates to 45 millions of iPhone 17 lineup overall.

That's a sharp 50% drop of sales of 17 lineup over 16, not a 15% increase. You're admitting it yourself: perhaps a lot of the sales are coming from 16 units. But then no one should be claiming that iPhone 17 is selling 15% better than iPhone 16.

So that's why a 90% production drop does not add up. It makes the 15% increase statement nonsensical. Unless then we also want to further claim that iPhone Air accounts for only 1.5% of total iPhone 17 sales, but we both know demand is not that weak.

What "15% increase" are you talking about?

We have no idea how many units of Air are sold or even produced this year. We only have production target numbers.

Apple could have only assembled 1 million, 3 million, 8 million Airs since August. We don't know the ramp rate.

 

[Retro Rider]

New to the thread (to lazy to read all the previous replies lol) but i got opinions haha.

I mean I don't think that the reason the Air hasn't had that much demand is just because most people don't really care about having the thinniest and lightest phone as much as they want one that works day to day. I mean some people will, but I think most people will either just be looking at the regular 17 or the pro(s). Especially when it's about the same price as those, and has less features just to be thin and light.

However, I think that the upcoming fold will be a different story. Now, ofc I don't have a crystal ball or anything, but I can say what i think.

I think a lot more people will want to have a iPad Air in thier pocket rather than something that claims to be thin and light. I mean, theres a lot of talk about folds, at least the vertical flip phones, so i think a iPhone model of that will be good. Probably not sell as well as the 18/18 Pro, at least since it'll be like 2x the price, but I think it'll get some traction.

I mean, personally, the Air is really not that eye-turning, but i am so excited for the fold. But now I have a dillema, I'm not sure if I should get the 18, or wait another year for the 20th year anniversary (and complete the anniversary phones with my previous ownership of the iPhone X)

 

[bill-p]

What "15% increase" are you talking about?

We have no idea how many units of Air are sold or even produced this year. We only have production target numbers.

Apple could have only assembled 1 million, 3 million, 8 million Airs since August. We don't know the ramp rate.

My mistake. It was precisely 14%. Here:

Apple’s New iPhone Outsells Previous Model by 14% in US, China

Apple Inc.’s latest generation of iPhones is off to a faster start than usual, with its most basic model surging in popularity.

www.bloomberg.com

This has been widely reported.

If the trend keeps up, meaning iPhone 17 lineup sells 14% better than iPhone 16 lineup, and assuming we are also taking into account the 90% drop of production of Air, it means Apple is projecting Air to be less than 2% of total sale of 2025.

That would make it definitively the worst selling iPhone, even below the Mini line.

 

[JPack]

My mistake. It was precisely 14%. Here:

Apple’s New iPhone Outsells Previous Model by 14% in US, China

Apple Inc.’s latest generation of iPhones is off to a faster start than usual, with its most basic model surging in popularity.

www.bloomberg.com

This has been widely reported.

If the trend keeps up, meaning iPhone 17 lineup sells 14% better than iPhone 16 lineup, and assuming we are also taking into account the 90% drop of production of Air, it means Apple is projecting Air to be less than 2% of total sale of 2025.

That would make it definitively the worst selling iPhone, even below the Mini line.

Not only are the sources different (Nikkei vs. CIRP via Bloomberg), but the metrics are entirely different.

Bloomberg is reporting CIRP data sell out data for U.S. and China only. CIRP tries to read tea leaves. This data doesn't even include China iPhone Air availability, which wasn't until yesterday, October 22, 2025.

Nikkei is reporting on direct global production forecasts and targets dictated by Apple to their suppliers.

 

[Wanted797]

A lot of the general public only care about cameras and battery life. The Air is solid in both of those, but a narrative came up even before the phone was released that it couldn't possibly have usable battery life and that only a single camera is simply ridiculous in this day and age. That narrative hasn't helped. Apple's lack of marketing the phone hasn't helped. The price hasn't helped relative to others released this year.

The narrative was exaggerated, but at the end of the day, the camera is less versatile than the 17 and 17 Pro, and the battery is not going to last as long as those same phones, all while being close in price to the Pro, and 25% more expensive than the 17. The only thing that could get it over the hump is a serious marketing push, which they aren't doing at all... yet. 🤷‍♂️

It was the same with the iPhone mini line.

The price wasn’t much cheaper. For only $100 get a bigger screen in the same footprint of phone. You’re already dealing with the footprint why not add more screen.

Then before it came out battery life concerns. Why for $100 compromise your battery life compared to your existing phone. Sure the 12 mini wasn’t stellar but its price for the average consumer made the standard 12 the logical choice.

I use a 13 mini and honestly don’t understand how people complain about battery. Wtf are you doing on your phone that much? I’d wouldn’t call myself a light phone user. But my mini has always got me through a day.

I think the worst I had was 6pm 20% warning.

And another day where I used maps and music and was at 40% at 2pm. Big whoop I just plugged into a charger for 30mins and was good.

 

[ps4db]

There seems to be a massive disconnect between people who have used/own the Air and the rest of the internet. The biggest anti Air people are the ones that have never used one.

The biggest anti air sentiments are echoed by the product itself rather than the people on the internet.

In today’s world of rising prices, people expect to get what they pay for : they want better battery, better cameras etc. The price point that the Air has, tech savvy people can probably cough up the money and take it but the average person will not.

Even for the tech savvy people, it’s often the self limiting argument that they use to justify the purchase: don’t need more cameras or my battery is perfect, which might be to them but not to others. To each, their own.

Either way, people vote with their wallet and the way things are going, there might not be another Air.

 

[ipsedixit]

The Air is an overpriced fashion statement.

The Fold? An answer to a question no one asked.

 

[JPack]

The biggest anti air sentiments are echoed by the product itself rather than the people on the internet.

In today’s world of rising prices, people expect to get what they pay for : they want better battery, better cameras etc. The price point that the Air has, tech savvy people can probably cough up the money and take it but the average person will not.

Even for the tech savvy people, it’s often the self limiting argument that they use to justify the purchase: don’t need more cameras or my battery is perfect, which might be to them but not to others. To each, their own.

Either way, people vote with their wallet and the way things are going, there might not be another Air.

Very well said.

You read all these red herring excuses: you've never used one (how do you even know?), there's no advertising (somehow base model sells well), reviewers were unfair (globally, really?), etc. But the elephant in the room is ignored: value proposition and features.

If iPhone Air existed in a vacuum and it was 2017, it might have sold well. But it's 2025 and people are used to having more.

 

[The-Real-Deal82]

I think the Air is a nice looking iPhone, but is priced bizarrely considering the standard 17 offers more in terms of features for £200 less. Then you have the Pro which is not that much more expensive. I think its for light users who don't really care about photos and battery life. It fits nicely in the pocket and has a shiny frame, but most seem to put their phones in a case anyway, its a niche.

On the rumoured fold, I think that too will be a niche. There will of course be more excitement for it on enthusiast sites like this, much like a vocal contingent who love the Air, but that as we know, does not represent the wider market. If the fold comes along, it will be perhaps close to £2k, much like Samsung have priced theirs, and I don't know many average people who will drop that sort of money on a mobile phone, especially if they don't have to.

 

[LacrosseChic]

I think the Air is a nice looking iPhone, but is priced bizarrely considering the standard 17 offers more in terms of features for £200 less. Then you have the Pro which is not that much more expensive. I think its for light users who don't really care about photos and battery life. It fits nicely in the pocket and has a shiny frame, but most seem to put their phones in a case anyway, its a niche.

On the rumoured fold, I think that too will be a niche. There will of course be more excitement for it on enthusiast sites like this, much like a vocal contingent who love the Air, but that as we know, does not represent the wider market. If the fold comes along, it will be perhaps close to £2k, much like Samsung have priced theirs, and I don't know many average people who will drop that sort of money on a mobile phone, especially if they don't have to.

This is exactly it for me - it is priced so bizarrely. It is right between the regular and the pros so you can either save money and get MORE (maybe not in terms of design - the Air really is beautiful), or spend a little bit more and get 3 cameras. Even if the regular person doesn't use all those features, I think most people have the mindset that they want the most bang for their buck.

 

[Ctrlos]

New to the thread (to lazy to read all the previous replies lol) but i got opinions haha.

I mean I don't think that the reason the Air hasn't had that much demand is just because most people don't really care about having the thinniest and lightest phone as much as they want one that works day to day. I mean some people will, but I think most people will either just be looking at the regular 17 or the pro(s). Especially when it's about the same price as those, and has less features just to be thin and light.

However, I think that the upcoming fold will be a different story. Now, ofc I don't have a crystal ball or anything, but I can say what i think.

I think a lot more people will want to have a iPad Air in thier pocket rather than something that claims to be thin and light. I mean, theres a lot of talk about folds, at least the vertical flip phones, so i think a iPhone model of that will be good. Probably not sell as well as the 18/18 Pro, at least since it'll be like 2x the price, but I think it'll get some traction.

I mean, personally, the Air is really not that eye-turning, but i am so excited for the fold. But now I have a dillema, I'm not sure if I should get the 18, or wait another year for the 20th year anniversary (and complete the anniversary phones with my previous ownership of the iPhone X)

We're probably at the point of the phone market properly maturing alongside its products. People aren't overly concerned with YouTubers complaining about a 'lack of innovation' because when their 3-year upgrade window appears they just want the latest version of what they already have.

Youtubers need to keep drumming up ennui and excitement to keep their viewing figured up. Forumites like us have turned the tech news cycle into a form of entertainment. In reality people don't really care.

 

[topbin]

I'm not really into the tech side or arguments side - everyone will have their own cases for why they pick their phone.

The only thing I know is that having bought the Air, every time I pick up a 'normal' sized iPhone (standard or Pro) it feels so old and clunky compared to the Air. I'd find it hard to go back now to holding something I hold for 2-3 hours a day (I know) feeling so big/bulky in comparison.

I so rarely need more than 6-8 hours battery that I'm happy bringing a charging pack along for any time that could be an issue (you don't need the £99 Apple one, a £15 Anker one gives you 60-65%).

I'm aware my usage needs are different to most people - I work at a desk with a charger, I don't go on long hikes, I drive with a charger, if I'm out for the day I usually have a backpack anyway to drop a charging block/cable in.

 

[MarkX]

Kuo: Apple is scaling back iPhone Air production capacity

The iPhone Air has failed to gain significant traction, at least for now. Renowned Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has joined a growing stream of analysts...

m.gsmarena.com

Not doing too well then!

 

[Moonjumper]

Yeah you're probably right, but it's definitely not helping that there's been literally no advertising for it so far.

Same happened with the Mini.

 

[Kjabean]

They probably never really wanted it to really take off, it is probably the most expensive phone for them to produce and has no other siblings like it in design to offset costs. It was a design test bed and did exactly what they wanted. I don’t even understand why people care how well it sold.. it is a super niche phone, why do you care? To me, the real question is that I wonder if Apple is done using titanium and glass now? I think the unibody construction is very telling of the future designs and I wonder what materials they are looking into. It would be cool to see a carbon fiber unibody or something.

 

[one more]

I have watched a YouTube video the other day, but cannot find a link now, unfortunately, but I will recap from memory.

Basically, the YouTuber was saying that Apple banked on the least important feature (thinness) for Air, while compromising on the top ones - cameras and battery life. This is what most people, apparently, want in a new phone today. Further, to benefit from being thin and light, one needs to use Air without a case, and there are not so many brave souls willing to go iPhone nude with their 1K device. Repairing that thing is costly too and AC+ aggravates the expenses further.

Even for not technically savvy, it is obvious that two or three cameras are better than one, no matter how Apple spins it. Add to it a mono speaker, that was last seen on an iPhone some nine (!) years ago and Air is pretty much done for.

As with iPhone mini a while back (which, by the way, offered the same set of features as its bigger counterparts), of course we will have some people saying we can get by with Air compromises, but it still would not sell well. We can hope, however, that all the marvellous engineering work done on Air will not go wasted and its future models (if any) will manage to improve on all its current shortcomings. Just think of the first ever MacBook Air, which was also expensive for what it was, but improved drastically within 2-3 years and today sells like hotcakes. Time will tell…

 

[surferfb]

I've said this in another thread, but not only will there be another iPhone Air, it'll be the "standard" phone next year. The Air isn't a test run for the foldable, it's getting people ready for it being the "main" option next year.

Multiple rumors say the mainline "iPhone 18" is coming out in Spring 2027, not Fall 2026. I predict the lineup next year:

• iPhone Ultra (Foldable) - $1999+
• iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max - $1099/$1199
• iPhone Air 2 (now with second camera, second speaker, and maybe improved battery) - $999
• iPhone 18 replaces the "e" line, comes out in spring - $799 ($699 option goes away)

This allows Apple to raise prices without raising prices. Air 2 stays the same price, but the cheapest phone you can buy in the fall will start at $100 more than it did this year. And if people are worried about battery life or whatever and get upsold to an 18 Pro, that's great from Apple's perspective.

Feel free to bookmark and come back and laugh at me in 11 months if I'm wrong

 

[ab2c4]

If the demand is actually weaker its probably due to the type of phone it is. Its the sports car of iphones and while many people would like a sports car its not usually practical for them. Much like vehicles, most people need an SUV or minivan due to children or work. Unlike a sports car there is nothing fancy about those vehicles, not going to turn anybody's head, not going to offer a spirited driving experience nor exceptionally fun to drive, but they can haul more stuff and people. Think about it. People with children are usually buying a minivan or SUV because they need the extra room. People with children are constantly saying they need the extra cameras for their children, you read about that daily. People that want the "sports car" phone because they want the wow experience get the Air, but the majority of people are not in the position to be able to do that.

I was thinking about it, what Toyota for example is the equivalent of each iphone. I would say:

Iphone 17: Corolla Cross
Iphone 17 Pro: RAV4
Iphone 17 Pro Max: 4Runner
Iphone Air: GR Supra

I didn't look up Toyota sales numbers but I am guessing they sell way more SUV's than sports cars.

When I was looking on the Toyota site the Pro Max does kinda look like the phone version of the 4Runner and the Air really does look like the phone version of the GR Supra.

 

[Geert76]

Many people are too focused on what they will get instead what they really used

 

[mattopotamus]

The biggest anti air sentiments are echoed by the product itself rather than the people on the internet.

In today’s world of rising prices, people expect to get what they pay for : they want better battery, better cameras etc. The price point that the Air has, tech savvy people can probably cough up the money and take it but the average person will not.

Even for the tech savvy people, it’s often the self limiting argument that they use to justify the purchase: don’t need more cameras or my battery is perfect, which might be to them but not to others. To each, their own.

Either way, people vote with their wallet and the way things are going, there might not be another Air.

I cannot argue with any of that. I just know that size/looks/feel of the phone are an important factor to a lot of people. Personally, I haven't felt the lack of performance on a phone in a long time, so I value the size/look/feel very much. I do not currently own the air, but it is the only phone that would feel "different" than my current 15 pro. That also seems to be a common theme with many reviewers. The air is the only phone that "feels" like a new product. That carries value, IMO.

 

[James6s]

Even for not technically savvy, it is obvious that two or three cameras are better than one, no matter how Apple spins it. The fact that it has the exact the same sensor as in iPhone 16e does not help either. Add to it a mono speaker, that was last seen on an iPhone some nine (!) years ago and Air is pretty much done for.

Agree with some of your other comments. But the sensor comment is incorrect as the camera and sensor used in the Air is not the same as the 16e.

 

[one more]

Agree with some of your other comments. But the sensor comment is incorrect as the camera and sensor used in the Air is not the same as the 16e.

This means the YouTuber was wrong, sorry about that. I have corrected my post. 🖐️

 

[Krabba]

The only thing I know is that having bought the Air, every time I pick up a 'normal' sized iPhone (standard or Pro) it feels so old and clunky compared to the Air. I'd find it hard to go back now to holding something I hold for 2-3 hours a day (I know) feeling so big/bulky in comparison.

I'm right there with you. I picked up my wife's 16 Pro Max and daughter's 15 Pro (both sans cases) last night and honestly thought "this feels like 10-year-old tech". It's been 5 weeks today using the Air and I can't see going back. Hopefully they continue to make it but if not I'll just be "stuck" with this one for years to come.