Macs are for developers (Apple has millions enrolled, and depends on them for App Store revenue). And developers need Macs that can run Xcode and compilers, and that can test and debug any code. And Xcode allows anyone to run any code that they can compile on their Mac. So no lockdown is possible unless Apple is willing to shut down the App stores. Since it's a billion $$$ business for Apple now, ridiculously unlikely.
I
absolutely hope so. Apple would obviously face a revolt.
But if they did lock down their system like iOS, but one which also runs Xcode for Mac-based apps, I also suspect many people would defend it. "Steve Jobs said PCs are trucks and this is better because it's a tailored, curated experience. It's safer…"
Would developers complain? Obviously, it would backstab open-source. But commercial developers who had a massive, captured audience who had no alternative to installing open-source software? Would they play along if meant they made money?
I
have been vocal in my revolt at the idea of an iPad as a "laptop replacement." Well, no. You can't
really code. You can't
really do whatever you want on it. Only what apps you can get through iOS. And you're tracked like a collared bear. Microsoft was hated and sued in the 90s for making far-less proprietary systems. Apple reserves the right to kick anybody off their platform. I don't dispute this right. It is a closed, proprietary system. They use their right to keep a closed system.
I already think iCloud in Catalina is extremely annoying at how it pops up everywhere and won't take no for an answer.
Many big brains and serious developers would
absolutely ditch the Mac platform if they decided to keep it closed to non-app code. Who does Apple benefit from, though? 95% of their base will not ditch the Mac for GNU/Linux on PCs.
But if Apple Silicon runs well
and the platform allows them to compete on cost? They might expect to double their Mac user base. In which case they know the developers will play along to make money, no matter what.
"If you want to whine about installing what you want, go buy a Clevo and put Arch on it! Good luck with that!"