Why does smaller have to mean subpar?

[C DM]

Of course. It's just one of several bits of evidence, but overall they do paint a picture.

What I mean is that it might not really be really all that connected.

 

[joeblow7777]

The fact that when the latest 4" model became two years old without a replacement, iPhone sales started falling for the first time is significant in my view.

iPhone sales haven't started falling, just growing by less than they used to. It's a plateau effect.

Of course. It's just one of several bits of evidence, but overall they do paint a picture.

You're interpreting a lot of things to support your opinion. But just tell me this; if the a 4" phone is what the majority has been waiting for, why is it coming midcycle with the last flagship's specs instead of being the iPhone 7 in September? Apple is appeasing a niche here. A significant niche, but not the majority. Do you expect the se to outsell the larger models?

 

[LiveM]

You call two-and-a-half years mid cycle? You call the iPad Pro mid cycle?

It's indisputable that the majority of 4" iPhone owners will not change to a bigger model.

Apple tried two series of big phones and finally conceded that they had to continue with the 4" line, just as they had to release a stylus and keyboard cover.

Now that the 4" line has been updated, we will see people coming back to it while some will also try the bigger phone. One would expect the bigger phones to dominate sales because of the popularity of Android, the needs of Asian users and the number of models and accessories, plus some additional features.

 

[C DM]

You call two-and-a-half years mid cycle? You call the iPad Pro mid cycle?

It's indisputable that the majority of 4" iPhone owners will not change to a bigger model.

Apple tried two series of big phones and finally conceded that they had to continue with the 4" line, just as they had to release a stylus and keyboard cover.

Now that the 4" line has been updated, we will see people coming back to it while some will also try the bigger phone. One would expect the bigger phones to dominate sales because of the popularity of Android, the needs of Asian users and the number of models and accessories, plus some additional features.

It's certainly a good assumption, and to some degree it can certainly apply, but with the way iPhone 5 and 5s (and even 4s) have been performing, quite typical users have been keeping them around longer, and with them being lower priced as the newer phones have come out, they appealed to even more people to buy as entry level and basically cheaper devices as well. Basically quite a few more considerations in there than simply not liking a larger sized screen (which might not even apply to many people still using smaller phones).

 

[joeblow7777]

You call two-and-a-half years mid cycle? You call the iPad Pro mid cycle?

The iPhone upgrade cycle is September to September. We're right in the middle of the cycle from one flagship (6s/6s+) to the next (7/7+). The se is a new midcycle addition to the lineup. It will probably have it's own upgrade cycle which will continue next March with a se2 that matches the specs of the previous year's 7.

It's indisputable that the majority of 4" iPhone owners will not change to a bigger model.

Apple tried two series of big phones and finally conceded that they had to continue with the 4" line, just as they had to release a stylus and keyboard cover.

Now that the 4" line has been updated, we will see people coming back to it while some will also try the bigger phone. One would expect the bigger phones to dominate sales because of the popularity of Android, the needs of Asian users and the number of models and accessories, plus some additional features.

It's not indisputable. How can you possibly state that as fact? If larger iPhone continue to dominate it's because iOS users want them. If it was just because of the popularity of Android you would figure most people would just stay with Android. Or if not, there should be a notable shift in market share.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see how the se sells. If you're right, and 60% of iPhone users have been holding out for this it should be the fastest selling iPhone yet!