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iPhone Duo Why the iPhone Fold will Fail [MERGED] [MEGA THREAD]

If the rumors are true and they call a phone with three screens (*) a "Duo" I suspect there will be some pushback.

(*) Yes, three. One outside, and two side-by-side on the interior, separated by a crease the marketing people will fervently deny exists, running an OS optimized for running two apps side-by-side, one on each of the two interior screens. I sure hope the "Duo" thing is an internal codename and something different will be announced in a few minutes.
 
Pbwallstreet said:
Crushing it to such an extent that the latest marketshare figures are that foldables are 2% of the total smartphone market.

Let me fix the headline: “Non-folding smartphones are Pulverizing it.”
Click to expand...
We're not talking about regular cell phones those options are always going to be there you're always going to have options for slab phones, this is a perfect time for Apple to come in at a time when foldables have matured and introduce their product and hopefully push it along.
 
OP of this thread fighting off all those who disagree about the Fold rn:

IMG_0334.jpeg
 
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Pbwallstreet said:
Yes smartphones have a primary function: portability. Main use cases are that they fit in a pocket and can be used/held with one hand. Tablets are larger screens that aren’t as portable. They don’t fit in a pocket and generally can't be used with one hand. And they need some adjustments to software interfaces to make the extra screen size make sense: interacting with that larger screen is generally less efficient as well.

Going around in circles sort of here. The point is that bolting on another 'device', in this case, a tablet, compromises the primary function. It will have seams when folded and unfolded. It is more fragile and byzantine with hinges that bend and a screen that scratches more easily than non-folding smartphones. It has creases on the screen, etc.

What the flaw is in people's analysis is thinking that the user is wanting and asking for a larger tablet like screen and is also willing to suffer the design compromises. The reality is as I see it is that people are not asking for a larger tablet like screen, anymore than a person is asking for a lawnmower to have wings so it can fly.

So again, my point is that the unfolded state of these foldables has limited use cases for people to the point where they will not buy this, no matter the price. Because they don't want it. They don't need it. It makes no sense just like it makes no sense for most people to have a lawnmower with wings.

Yes I could be wrong, but I don't think so.

One foldable area I think has some promise is the flip phone style. That has a practical purpose because it enables a smartphone to be even more portable than it is to start with. Not interested in it myself because of issues with foldables, but I can see the appeal here for some.
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The primary function of a smartphone is communication, not portability. All sorts of objects are portable, from a Moleskin to a Casio Watch to a Gameboy but it is not their primary function but an additional selling point. If the Gameboy didn’t play games nobody would have bought it. Would you buy a Casio if it couldn’t tell the time?

Smartphones are inherently multifunctional. They are torches and web browsers and games consoles and cameras. Their entire USP is the convergence of lots of other gadgets into one singular Swiss army tech. If becoming a tablet is another natural step on its path as the everygadget then what does it matter?
 
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4sallypat said:
Oh that's so funny how we are very similar!

I got the first gen iPad Pro (still have it) but it's my wife's photobooth business device so I never use it.

As for the Mini, I will be getting the Mini w/ cellular as a celebration gift to myself when (and if) I pass my solo & checkrides and get my private pilot's certificate for VFR flights.

Mini will be my first "avionics tech" to start learning how to fly on instruments (IFR) and GPS.

Currently, only my flight instructor uses his Mini to watch for air traffic separation, weather, and airspace notifications because I have a tendency to fly into restricted airspace and busy airport airspaces while practicing flight.

Looking at using Garmin Pilot or Foreflight for the Mini:
IMG_3843-scaled.jpg
Click to expand...

Nice! The mini looks the perfect size for your cabin 😊
 
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Think some people will buy it for vanity reasons. No one else will be interested. It’ll be over represented as a success and then canned 3 years down the line after they wrote off the development costs of the iPhone Fold 2.

If they did a <$500 phone that’d be a game changer and actually bring more revenue in.
 
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Pbwallstreet said:
Foldables are 2% of the smartphone market after 7 years.
Click to expand...
As others have pointed out, but you conveniently ignore, the 2% is total global smartphone market (which includes majority budget devices). Due to inherently higher price, foldables occupy the ultra-premium category. Among smartphones costing over $1000, foldables actually comprise 10-15% of the market and will increase with the foldable iPhone.
 
Pbwallstreet said:
Yes, I know people will jump on this and flame me. But this is a prediction and we will see if I am right or wrong over time.

I predicted the AVP would fail because it was obvious: it was worse at many things compared to other device types like smartphones and laptops and desktops. That it didn’t have much of a reason to exist.

Same too for the Fold. It is worse at several things compared to non-folding smartphones, laptops, desktops… and doesn’t have much of a reason to exist.

  • Unfolded or folded, the Fold has seams since effectively 2 slabs are sandwiched onto each other and with a hinge. It will always therefore be design compromised compared to a non-folding smartphone.
  • Because of the folding capability, and this is a big deal, it has to have a PLASTIC SCREEN. Plastic is noticeably inferior to glass from an optics standpoint, including reflections, and it will have a crease. And over time, we can see that the crease gets more pronounced with other Foldables. So on this, it will have a worse screen than non-folding products like an iPhone or MacBook or iPad.
  • Fragility and processing power: it will be more fragile because they have to make each slab as thin as possible and there is a hinge, which is subject to breaking and failure. And the thermals suffer which can compromise performance.
  • Very few use cases: the Fold turns into a tablet… but people buy and use non-folding smartphones precisely because of its form-factor: pocketable, one handed use, simple interfaces in software, etc. They aren’t asking for something to turn into a tablet, it doesn’t fit the use cases. And the stats support people not wanting Folds: Foldable smartphones after several years on the market still only have less than 5% of the total smartphone marketshare.
You don’t and won’t see people standing in line at a grocery store with one basket of food in one hand and an unfolded smartphone in the other hand. One handed device use is one of the main use cases of non-folding smartphones.

And for people who also like and want a tablet, it comes down to the problem of the fold being inferior across a set of things to a non-folding iPad.

I don’t see, therefore, how an iPhone Fold can be successful for Apple. Will some people buy it? Yes. How is failure defined? For Apple, it would be not leading in marketshare in the category and not capturing enough customers to make it a viable category to continue developing. Apple needs relatively large markets and scale, and that is not going to happen with the Fold is my prediction.

Go ahead and attack me, and for anyone wanting this device on day 1, that’s great. I don’t think foldables will not exist, but a device that doesn’t have much of a reason to exist is nothing more than a niche market device at best.
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I agree with your points about the downsides of a foldable phone, however, there are, unfortunately, many people who buy Apple products as a status symbol and thus don’t care much about the products’ downsides.

The greedy bean-counting CEO Tim Cook tried to poise Apple products as fashion accessories, which is precisely why he hired former Burberry CEO Angela Arhends who, at the time, was Apple’s highest-paid executive.

By positioning Apple products as fashion accessories, Cook could carry out his favorite pastime, which is raising prices and maximizing profits.
 
Bkdodger said:
We're not talking about regular cell phones those options are always going to be there you're always going to have options for slab phones, this is a perfect time for Apple to come in at a time when foldables have matured and introduce their product and hopefully push it along.
Click to expand...
With all of these posts like this, nobody explains WHY people want it.
Ctrlos said:
The primary function of a smartphone is communication, not portability. All sorts of objects are portable, from a Moleskin to a Casio Watch to a Gameboy but it is not their primary function but an additional selling point. If the Gameboy didn’t play games nobody would have bought it. Would you buy a Casio if it couldn’t tell the time?

Smartphones are inherently multifunctional. They are torches and web browsers and games consoles and cameras. Their entire USP is the convergence of lots of other gadgets into one singular Swiss army tech. If becoming a tablet is another natural step on its path as the everygadget then what does it matter?
Click to expand...
It is portability. If it wasn’t, then people would pack their desktops in a briefcase. Communications is a feature common to all modern computing devices. What separates smartphones from laptops, desktops and tablets is portability.
 
NeonNights said:
As others have pointed out, but you conveniently ignore, the 2% is total global smartphone market (which includes majority budget devices). Due to inherently higher price, foldables occupy the ultra-premium category. Among smartphones costing over $1000, foldables actually comprise 10-15% of the market and will increase with the foldable iPhone.
Click to expand...
Little evidence it’s higher price. My position is that it’s useless to most people and they won’t go for it, no matter the price. That is my prediction.
 
Pbwallstreet said:
With all of these posts like this, nobody explains WHY people want it.

It is portability. If it wasn’t, then people would pack their desktops in a briefcase. Communications is a feature common to all modern computing devices. What separates smartphones from laptops, desktops and tablets is portability.
Click to expand...
There are plenty for me, a more comfortable phone folded to my pocket and carry while lightweight, ease to quick view and reply on the go including one handed mode. Unfolded media consumption for watching movies or shows and YouTube, multitasking with multiple windows opened along with rotate mode for reading. Options ! That's why
 
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For the price they should have matched competitors with all 3 back cameras (including 18 pros new features) and Face ID (also if rumors are true, the front facing camera seems to be a downgrade)
 
Pbwallstreet said:
Yes, I know people will jump on this and flame me. But this is a prediction and we will see if I am right or wrong over time.

I predicted the AVP would fail because it was obvious: it was worse at many things compared to other device types like smartphones and laptops and desktops. That it didn’t have much of a reason to exist.

Same too for the Fold. It is worse at several things compared to non-folding smartphones, laptops, desktops… and doesn’t have much of a reason to exist.

  • Unfolded or folded, the Fold has seams since effectively 2 slabs are sandwiched onto each other and with a hinge. It will always therefore be design compromised compared to a non-folding smartphone.
  • Because of the folding capability, and this is a big deal, it has to have a PLASTIC SCREEN. Plastic is noticeably inferior to glass from an optics standpoint, including reflections, and it will have a crease. And over time, we can see that the crease gets more pronounced with other Foldables. So on this, it will have a worse screen than non-folding products like an iPhone or MacBook or iPad.
  • Fragility and processing power: it will be more fragile because they have to make each slab as thin as possible and there is a hinge, which is subject to breaking and failure. And the thermals suffer which can compromise performance.
  • Very few use cases: the Fold turns into a tablet… but people buy and use non-folding smartphones precisely because of its form-factor: pocketable, one handed use, simple interfaces in software, etc. They aren’t asking for something to turn into a tablet, it doesn’t fit the use cases. And the stats support people not wanting Folds: Foldable smartphones after several years on the market still only have less than 5% of the total smartphone marketshare.
You don’t and won’t see people standing in line at a grocery store with one basket of food in one hand and an unfolded smartphone in the other hand. One handed device use is one of the main use cases of non-folding smartphones.

And for people who also like and want a tablet, it comes down to the problem of the fold being inferior across a set of things to a non-folding iPad.

I don’t see, therefore, how an iPhone Fold can be successful for Apple. Will some people buy it? Yes. How is failure defined? For Apple, it would be not leading in marketshare in the category and not capturing enough customers to make it a viable category to continue developing. Apple needs relatively large markets and scale, and that is not going to happen with the Fold is my prediction.

Go ahead and attack me, and for anyone wanting this device on day 1, that’s great. I don’t think foldables will not exist, but a device that doesn’t have much of a reason to exist is nothing more than a niche market device at best.
Click to expand...
Yeah okay we get it - you hate folding phones because … reasons. And you think Apple is doomed to failure no matter what they do because they had one product flop after a decade of bestselling hits.
 
iPod2001 said:
Personally seeing it now on the keynote while it’s not for everyone this is the very best foldable on the market .
Just looking at it you can tell a lot of thought has gone into everything , just looking at the software it shows how much they have been working on it
Click to expand...
although the lack of a SIM slot will be a shame
 
I am watching the Apple Presentation. The iPhone Duo will NOT fail. I love the versitality of this device, and it surprised me how much I like it. It is out of my budget for the time being, plus I bought a new iPhone 17e last spring, but I would love to have a Duo much more than I ever wanted an iPhone Pro. I am a fan of the iPad Mini, as I still use a Mini 5, so I already love that form factor. I may not be able to buy it right now, but there will be others who will want it and will buy it after it is released.
 
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