iPhone Duo Why the iPhone Fold will Fail [MERGED] [MEGA THREAD]

[Pbwallstreet]

iPhone Fold won't fail, the Samsung's haven't failed they've found a solid chunk of the market. Totally different to the AVP.

And even if it remains a niche, still not a failure.

The mini phones, Plus phones and possibly even the Air if it gets a second version then nothing more, I wouldn't say a failure either. Sales not meeting Apple's wishes are still sales numbers large enough to sustain entire companies... naturally they focus on bigger more popular models.

AVP is in real trouble but they can probably afford to shoulder that until the rest of the world catches up, a luxury unique to a company of Apple's size.

don't make the mistake into thinking you know better than modern Apple. I wouldn't even trust other million/billionaire or huge firm CEOs opinions on Apple, so no disrespect, why would I trust yours. Sounds more like you hope it fails.

Apple knows best! I’ll continue making “mistakes” because they have turned out to be correct.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

These assertions (of the OP) may be true, but the problem with this hot take is that it ignores all of the other factors that go into the decision to launch any product.

Apple’s phenomenal success is based on the iPhone and the downstream (and highly profitable) services-based rundle lock in iPhones invite.

I have no idea what the uptake for foldables currently is. But if it is 5% of market like bandied about in this thread, Apple cannot afford to ignore the segment any longer. It’s a similar motivation for big mobile operators to also offer MVNOs with reversed economics - they don’t want to lose those customers and the rundles of cash they come with.

I’ve only seen one foldable outside of a store in the US. That’s not the case elsewhere where they are already quite common. I suspect the same trend to wash over the once gleaming shores of the US, too, which is pretty clearly no longer the cultural juggernaut it once was.

The deeper and more intellectually interesting question is how does a multi trillion dollar company maintain an edge in the face of increasingly intense competition, plateauing technical options for their most prominent product, waning interest and even aversion to technology, all in an environment of uncertain economic (inflation, tariffs) and market headwinds (parts availability.)

I’m 98% certain the Fold will fail, but of course I could be wrong. While it is a different topic not for this thread, for Apple to compete moving forward, it’s all about AI, an area they are still lacking in.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

I don't think anyone is claiming that foldables will be a tremendous chunk of the market share. But, there really aren't all that many of them available. Obviously Apple making one available offers them to nearly a quarter of smartphone users that absolutely wouldn't consider one otherwise. Motorola, Xiaomi, and others(?) have this exact form factor coming out soon.

Is anyone talking about using a foldable phone, unfolded, with one hand? Why would this ever be something you would do or even try? If you want to use it one-handed, fold it up and use the smaller screen. As you say, unfolded, it's for two-handed use and/or media consumption.

Ultimately, this is a device for a small subsection of users. Maybe that subsection is big enough to make this thing a "success", maybe not. I do think it's telling that almost every manufacturer is making an almost identical form factor. If everything you say is true about this being an awful form factor that nobody wants, why is every company making one?

My point is that there is generally a primary use case for a product to have a reason to exist. People buy and use non-folding smartphones precisely because some of the main use cases are that it is pocketable and can be used with one hand.

When another function like a tablet gets built in, that isn’t in service of its primary purpose, it’s effectively useless and compromises the design and primary function.

A lawnmower with wings.

 

[4sallypat]

I’m 98% certain the Fold will fail, but of course I could be wrong. While it is a different topic not for this thread, for Apple to compete moving forward, it’s all about AI, an area they are still lacking in.

Let's see what happens today.

I am getting ready for the event to unveil itself without being interrupted.

This is my first retirement viewing which is amazing because I don't have to sneakily watch while at work and my Mac devices are no longer bothering me every minute (work emails, texts, group chat, Teams meeting reminders, vendor notifications, phone calls, etc)...

 

[Ctrlos]

Ya it is. The crease gets more pronounced over time, the plastic scratches more easily. Manufacturers like Samsung state in their documentation not to use screen protectors on Folds because they can adversely affect the plastic layer. And also may affect the crease.

The difference is on non-folding phones, screen protectors are temporary and replaceable, but the plastic layer on Folds is permanent.

The plastic layer is a pre-installed screen protector. Feedback from Reddit, normally a bastion of negativity does see to suggest that the fragility of the folds has been greatly exaggerated.

 

[Dirk Pieters]

My position is that the AVP failing had nothing to do with price and everything to do with it being a relatively useless product for most people.

No, I don't think that's true. The perception of relatively useless could be right but pricing was *definitely* involved. Because that's what people do, right? They buy on a combination of both.

Something insanely useful that is too expensive: "I want that and wish I could afford that"

Something insanely useful for a decent price: "I'm going to buy that, no doubt"

Something relatively useless for a decent price: "I might just try one for fun"

Something relatively useless that is too expensive: "Not buying that"

That's why I said that at $499 it would have been an impulse buy for more people. Because you can sort of defend a relatively useless purchase at $499. Not so at $3500.

Just like there is a market for impulse buyers for Neo, because it's cheap(ish) and there's a range of people who aren't rich by any means but can afford toys like that.

As I have said before, you could give 100 random people an AVP and most of them would try it once, and then put it up for sale…

Could be. We'll never know.

 

[henkie]

Never said I liked the AVP.

If you read my subsequent post, I said I returned the AVP in a week after using it because my iPhone would not sync to it, making it a useless pair of foggles (we use in aviation).

AVP was just the example. Even if you like something, it can still be considered a flop. And vice versa: you might have a great dislike of Taylor Swift, it does not mean she is not a success (measured by review response, number of fans or revenue). It seems some people take it personal if someone predicts product X to fail and then feel offended somehow. On topic: AVP was doomed from the get go because of price. Here, if the fold can turn into a true productivity machine (ie on par with an iPad), there might be a success. On the other hand: not sure how many people feel comfortable lugging a clearly 2000+ phone with them. And you probably can get a mb Neo, iPhone and iPad for the price of 1 foldable phone…And have money to spare. My prediction: probably early sell like hot cakes, and after 2-3 months a huge decrease because influencers have stopped buying. But compared to AVP, the foldable might turn into a more default form factor in the next few years. Especially when it can be bought for less than what it would cost to buy an iPhone and iPad combined. Might turn into something of a sleeper hit over the years.

 

[Ctrlos]

My point is that there is generally a primary use case for a product to have a reason to exist. People buy and use non-folding smartphones precisely because some of the main use cases are that it is pocketable and can be used with one hand.

When another function like a tablet gets built in, that isn’t in service of its primary purpose, it’s effectively useless and compromises the design and primary function.

A lawnmower with wings.

Would you argue the same about an eraser on a pencil? 😉

Having multiple funcitonality built into the same device can be very useful. For example on the Z Fold 8 I shoot lots of images in raw, but editing in Lightroom on a small screen is a pain so I unfold. Ditto Lumafusion and videos. Ditto playing Dreamcast games on the front display.

Not having to carry a tablet or a laptop when travelling is a godsend on my back. I can unfold on the train, prop it up and unfold a bluetooth keyboard. If I need a bigger screen still I can plug into a TV for gaming and even hook up extra controllers. I carry over the same save data, no cloud needed.

When I need to do some proper computing stuff I can DeX into a monitor. Android has a lot of flexibility. Can an iPhone rip a CD?

 

[macaron35]

Samsung already has 6 years of experience. Foldable smartphones are all fragile and not durable, the iPhone Duo won't be the exception.

 

[ayephoner]

My point is that there is generally a primary use case for a product to have a reason to exist. People buy and use non-folding smartphones precisely because some of the main use cases are that it is pocketable and can be used with one hand.

When another function like a tablet gets built in, that isn’t in service of its primary purpose, it’s effectively useless and compromises the design and primary function.

A lawnmower with wings.

This doesn't feel like a genuine interaction. It feels like you are sticking with your side of the argument no matter what, as if this is an assignment for a debate club rather than an honest opinion. I am questioning your true motivation for many of your posts.

When folded, this device is still pocketable for many, and can still be used with one hand. I'm not sure why you continue to post that this isn't the case.

Smartphones don't have a single primary function. Very far from it. There are plenty of functions that a tablet sized screen makes more sense for.

A lawnmower with wings is a terrible analogy.

 

[4sallypat]

No, I don't think that's true. The perception of relatively useless could be right but pricing was *definitely* involved. Because that's what people do, right? They buy on a combination of both.

Something insanely useful that is too expensive: "I want that and wish I could afford that"

Something insanely useful for a decent price: "I'm going to buy that, no doubt"

Something relatively useless for a decent price: "I might just try one for fun"

Something relatively useless that is too expensive: "Not buying that"

That's why I said that at $499 it would have been an impulse buy for more people. Because you can sort of defend a relatively useless purchase at $499. Not so at $3500.

Just like there is a market for impulse buyers for Neo, because it's cheap(ish) and there's a range of people who aren't rich by any means but can afford toys like that.



Could be. We'll never know.

Well said and true but not about wealth or affordability when it came to the Neo:

I was one of the first to jump on the Neo when it first came out and got it on launch day to replace my 12" rMB I had been travelling with.

Then my wife seeing how amazing it is, got one for her too.

Now she loves it over the awful Intel 16" MBP that she had been complaining about for years.

 

[ayephoner]

Samsung already has 6 years of experience. Foldable smartphones are all fragile and not durable, the iPhone Duo won't be the exception.

Despite months and months of rumors to the contrary?

 

[Dirk Pieters]

Well said and true but not about wealth or affordability when it came to the Neo:

I was one of the first to jump on the Neo when it first came out and got it on launch day to replace my 12" rMB I had been travelling with.

Then my wife seeing how amazing it is, got one for her too.

Now she loves it over the awful Intel 16" MBP that she had been complaining about for years.

Absolutely. I had no intention to make it seem like every Neo was an impulse buy.

I wanted to post to the OP that Vision Pro could/would have had more sales had it been priced like Neo. $3500 for VP was downright crazy.

 

[4sallypat]

Absolutely. I had no intention to make it seem like every Neo was an impulse buy.

I wanted to post to the OP that Vision Pro could/would have had more sales had it been priced like Neo. $3500 for VP was downright crazy.

Oh you are so right about the AVP !

If it was priced at a modest $999 then it would have had a chance.

I was one of the first to jump in and get one as soon it released; but was seriously disappointed when it did not "sync" with my iPhone, artificial AR/VR camera vision was awful, battery life was poor and the fit was too stressful on my head with tons of facial marks.

When I decided to return it, it was the first Apple device that I felt "thank god" I don't have to put up with such a useless device unless I was in the hospital and bedridden....

 

[MayaUser]

Despite months and months of rumors to the contrary?

Yes, physics and chemistry not even apple can walk around and that is not a rumor, the rest are
Iphone duo will be more fragile than any iphone in the last decade

 

[ayephoner]

Yes, physics and chemistry not even apple can walk around and that is not a rumor, the rest are
Iphone duo will be more fragile than any iphone in the last decade

There have been plenty of rumors that mention Apple reworking the hinge to be different than any other on the market (with magnets?). There have been plenty of specific ideas mentioned that would be different than anything else. I guess we will see.

 

[MayaUser]

There have been plenty of rumors that mention Apple reworking the hinge to be different than any other on the market (with magnets?). There have been plenty of specific ideas mentioned that would be different than anything else. I guess we will see.

Hope this is true but that will fix the visible crease to a degree not the fact that the inner display will be far more fragile than the outer display

 

[Jkeith85]

Samsung foldables prove that they will sell, obviously not going to come anywhere close. If the market was not there, Samsung would not be making the foldable still.

With that being said, I want one, but I will not be buying the first version.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

No, I don't think that's true. The perception of relatively useless could be right but pricing was *definitely* involved. Because that's what people do, right? They buy on a combination of both.

Something insanely useful that is too expensive: "I want that and wish I could afford that"

Something insanely useful for a decent price: "I'm going to buy that, no doubt"

Something relatively useless for a decent price: "I might just try one for fun"

Something relatively useless that is too expensive: "Not buying that"

That's why I said that at $499 it would have been an impulse buy for more people. Because you can sort of defend a relatively useless purchase at $499. Not so at $3500.

Just like there is a market for impulse buyers for Neo, because it's cheap(ish) and there's a range of people who aren't rich by any means but can afford toys like that.



Could be. We'll never know.

It’s useless to most people, even if it’s free, my position is people won’t use it. Wearing ski goggles to do computing stuff was never going to work out well…

We’ve seen from Oculus that many were bought but collecting dust. Seems now the main use case is just gaming.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

Would you argue the same about an eraser on a pencil? 😉

Having multiple funcitonality built into the same device can be very useful. For example on the Z Fold 8 I shoot lots of images in raw, but editing in Lightroom on a small screen is a pain so I unfold. Ditto Lumafusion and videos. Ditto playing Dreamcast games on the front display.

Not having to carry a tablet or a laptop when travelling is a godsend on my back. I can unfold on the train, prop it up and unfold a bluetooth keyboard. If I need a bigger screen still I can plug into a TV for gaming and even hook up extra controllers. I carry over the same save data, no cloud needed.

When I need to do some proper computing stuff I can DeX into a monitor. Android has a lot of flexibility. Can an iPhone rip a CD?

Hmmm, why don’t you start a business that designs and makes convertible laptops.

For fun, you could throw in a cool watch that is also a cupholder.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

This doesn't feel like a genuine interaction. It feels like you are sticking with your side of the argument no matter what, as if this is an assignment for a debate club rather than an honest opinion. I am questioning your true motivation for many of your posts.

When folded, this device is still pocketable for many, and can still be used with one hand. I'm not sure why you continue to post that this isn't the case.

Smartphones don't have a single primary function. Very far from it. There are plenty of functions that a tablet sized screen makes more sense for.

A lawnmower with wings is a terrible analogy.

Yes smartphones have a primary function: portability. Main use cases are that they fit in a pocket and can be used/held with one hand. Tablets are larger screens that aren’t as portable. They don’t fit in a pocket and generally can't be used with one hand. And they need some adjustments to software interfaces to make the extra screen size make sense: interacting with that larger screen is generally less efficient as well.

Going around in circles sort of here. The point is that bolting on another 'device', in this case, a tablet, compromises the primary function. It will have seams when folded and unfolded. It is more fragile and byzantine with hinges that bend and a screen that scratches more easily than non-folding smartphones. It has creases on the screen, etc.

What the flaw is in people's analysis is thinking that the user is wanting and asking for a larger tablet like screen and is also willing to suffer the design compromises. The reality is as I see it is that people are not asking for a larger tablet like screen, anymore than a person is asking for a lawnmower to have wings so it can fly.

So again, my point is that the unfolded state of these foldables has limited use cases for people to the point where they will not buy this, no matter the price. Because they don't want it. They don't need it. It makes no sense just like it makes no sense for most people to have a lawnmower with wings.

Yes I could be wrong, but I don't think so.

One foldable area I think has some promise is the flip phone style. That has a practical purpose because it enables a smartphone to be even more portable than it is to start with. Not interested in it myself because of issues with foldables, but I can see the appeal here for some.

 

[surferfb]

My point is that there is generally a primary use case for a product to have a reason to exist. People buy and use non-folding smartphones precisely because some of the main use cases are that it is pocketable and can be used with one hand.

When another function like a tablet gets built in, that isn’t in service of its primary purpose, it’s effectively useless and compromises the design and primary function.

A lawnmower with wings.

By that logic the iPhone shouldn’t have a camera because the primary use case is to be a communication device.

The idea that there’s no use case for the fold is silly. You personally may not have a use case for it, or see the value, but that doesn’t mean it’s not there for others. And at Apple’s scale, it doesn’t take that many others for the device to be profitable.

I’ve recently changed jobs, but if I was still in my last one I’d almost certainly be getting the foldable because I spent a lot of time in networking receptions where I didn’t want to have to carry a briefcase or backpack around but would often need to edit documents while going to, attending, or leaving the reception. In a job before that, I had to travel with two laptops (company laptop and client laptop) and there was no way I was going to add an iPad to my carry on, but it’d be nice to watch a movie on a big screen on a long flight. The “compromised” iPad that fits in my pocket while I’m traveling is much more useful than the “better” iPad setting at home on my desk.

To be clear, I’m unlikely to get one, but the idea that because it has an “extra” feature it’s “useless” is just silly.

 

[Jkeith85]

Yes smartphones have a primary function: portability. Main use cases are that they fit in a pocket and can be used/held with one hand. Tablets are larger screens that aren’t as portable. They don’t fit in a pocket and generally can't be used with one hand. And they need some adjustments to software interfaces to make the extra screen size make sense: interacting with that larger screen is generally less efficient as well.

Going around in circles sort of here. The point is that bolting on another 'device', in this case, a tablet, compromises the primary function. It will have seams when folded and unfolded. It is more fragile and byzantine with hinges that bend and a screen that scratches more easily than non-folding smartphones. It has creases on the screen, etc.

What the flaw is in people's analysis is thinking that the user is wanting and asking for a larger tablet like screen and is also willing to suffer the design compromises. The reality is as I see it is that people are not asking for a larger tablet like screen, anymore than a person is asking for a lawnmower to have wings so it can fly.

So again, my point is that the unfolded state of these foldables has limited use cases for people to the point where they will not buy this, no matter the price. Because they don't want it. They don't need it. It makes no sense just like it makes no sense for most people to have a lawnmower with wings.

Yes I could be wrong, but I don't think so.

One foldable area I think has some promise is the flip phone style. That has a practical purpose because it enables a smartphone to be even more portable than it is to start with. Not interested in it myself because of issues with foldables, but I can see the appeal here for some.

i am asking for a bigger tablet like screen....

 

[RecentlyConverted]

If I still bought iPhones and travelled as much as I used to on public transport, the iPhone fold would have been a day one order for me (depending on price). I love being able to do all my business work whilst on the move. I used to buy lots of Watch apps too, to try and keep in touch and answer queries whilst on the beach etc. Use cases are different for everyone.

 

[Populus]

Yes, I know people will jump on this and flame me. But this is a prediction and we will see if I am right or wrong over time.

I predicted the AVP would fail because it was obvious: it was worse at many things compared to other device types like smartphones and laptops and desktops. That it didn’t have much of a reason to exist.

Same too for the Fold. It is worse at several things compared to non-folding smartphones, laptops, desktops… and doesn’t have much of a reason to exist.

• Unfolded or folded, the Fold has seams since effectively 2 slabs are sandwiched onto each other and with a hinge. It will always therefore be design compromised compared to a non-folding smartphone.
• Because of the folding capability, and this is a big deal, it has to have a PLASTIC SCREEN. Plastic is noticeably inferior to glass from an optics standpoint, including reflections, and it will have a crease. And over time, we can see that the crease gets more pronounced with other Foldables. So on this, it will have a worse screen than non-folding products like an iPhone or MacBook or iPad.
• Fragility and processing power: it will be more fragile because they have to make each slab as thin as possible and there is a hinge, which is subject to breaking and failure. And the thermals suffer which can compromise performance.
• Very few use cases: the Fold turns into a tablet… but people buy and use non-folding smartphones precisely because of its form-factor: pocketable, one handed use, simple interfaces in software, etc. They aren’t asking for something to turn into a tablet, it doesn’t fit the use cases. And the stats support people not wanting Folds: Foldable smartphones after several years on the market still only have less than 5% of the total smartphone marketshare.

You don’t and won’t see people standing in line at a grocery store with one basket of food in one hand and an unfolded smartphone in the other hand. One handed device use is one of the main use cases of non-folding smartphones.

And for people who also like and want a tablet, it comes down to the problem of the fold being inferior across a set of things to a non-folding iPad.

I don’t see, therefore, how an iPhone Fold can be successful for Apple. Will some people buy it? Yes. How is failure defined? For Apple, it would be not leading in marketshare in the category and not capturing enough customers to make it a viable category to continue developing. Apple needs relatively large markets and scale, and that is not going to happen with the Fold is my prediction.

Go ahead and attack me, and for anyone wanting this device on day 1, that’s great. I don’t think foldables will not exist, but a device that doesn’t have much of a reason to exist is nothing more than a niche market device at best.

Hey, OP!

I know this may seem like a flame thread as you said, but given that a great device such as the iPhone Air haven’t sold too much, the same that happened to the iPhone mini or iPhone plus… it could certainly happen.

I’d say that right now it is difficult, if not impossible, to predict how the market will react, and that there are like 50% of chances for it to succeed and 50% for it to fail. We don’t know.

Too many factors to take into consideration: how well implemented is the multi-window system for the big screen, the snappiness and stability of the software, the durability of the hinge, the resilience of the central crease (nail resistant)… and the usability of the phone itself, both folded and unfolded.

All of that is still unknown. And even if different form factors such as the mini, the plus, or the Air, had poor sales, The iPhone Duo is going to be different enough that any prediction at this point is difficult to make.