iPhone Duo Why the iPhone Fold will Fail [MERGED] [MEGA THREAD]

[Populus]

If I still bought iPhones and travelled as much as I used to on public transport, the iPhone fold would have been a day one order for me (depending on price). I love being able to do all my business work whilst on the move. I used to buy lots of Watch apps too, to try and keep in touch and answer queries whilst on the beach etc. Use cases are different for everyone.

Yeah, I like to use the commute time at the bus or train exactly for that, and that’s what I use my 11” iPad for.

 

[4sallypat]

Hey, OP!

I know this may seem like a flame thread as you said, but given that a great device such as the iPhone Air haven’t sold too much, the same that happened to the iPhone mini or iPhone plus… it could certainly happen.

I’d say that right now it is difficult, if not impossible, to predict how the market will react, and that there are like 50% of chances for it to succeed and 50% for it to fail. We don’t know.

Too many factors to take into consideration: how well implemented is the multi-window system for the big screen, the snappiness and stability of the software, the durability of the hinge, the resilience of the central crease (nail resistant)… and the usability of the phone itself, both folded and unfolded.

All of that is still unknown. And even if different form factors such as the mini, the plus, or the Air, had poor sales, The iPhone Duo is going to be different enough that any prediction at this point is difficult to make.

Agree, the iPhone Air is a niche product that stands on it's own and probably the test bed for this new folding iPhone being announced today.

I for one, love my Air - it's the best iPhone since the start of bar style phones.

 

[Populus]

Oh that's so funny how we are very similar!

I got the first gen iPad Pro (still have it) but it's my wife's photobooth business device so I never use it.

As for the Mini, I will be getting the Mini w/ cellular as a celebration gift to myself when (and if) I pass my solo & checkrides and get my private pilot's certificate for VFR flights.

Mini will be my first "avionics tech" to start learning how to fly on instruments (IFR) and GPS.

Currently, only my flight instructor uses his Mini to watch for air traffic separation, weather, and airspace notifications because I have a tendency to fly into restricted airspace and busy airport airspaces while practicing flight.

Looking at using Garmin Pilot or Foreflight for the Mini:

A bit off topic but man, I’d love to learn to fly a plane…

 

[Man on the moon]

I wouldn’t go as far as say it will fail. It’s something different from Apple and people want something different than the same phone since iPhone 8GB.

But the plastic screen I did not think of, maybe this is why I was underwhelmed by fold 8 at Verizon. Screen looked not as sharp as my current iPhone and the display also looked as lower resolution.

 

[4sallypat]

A bit off topic but man, I’d love to learn to fly a plane…

It's been on my bucket list forever.

I wish I learned how to fly earlier when I was younger and had the health for it.
Right now at my senior age, I am struggling with maintaining and keeping my 3rd class FAA medical certificate which is required for a private pilot or instructor.

But then the expensive part of flight school is not so much an issue nowadays compared to when I was younger living paycheck to paycheck....

 

[Pbwallstreet]

By that logic the iPhone shouldn’t have a camera because the primary use case is to be a communication device.

The idea that there’s no use case for the fold is silly. You personally may not have a use case for it, or see the value, but that doesn’t mean it’s not there for others. And at Apple’s scale, it doesn’t take that many others for the device to be profitable.

I’ve recently changed jobs, but if I was still in my last one I’d almost certainly be getting the foldable because I spent a lot of time in networking receptions where I didn’t want to have to carry a briefcase or backpack around but would often need to edit documents while going to, attending, or leaving the reception. In a job before that, I had to travel with two laptops (company laptop and client laptop) and there was no way I was going to add an iPad to my carry on, but it’d be nice to watch a movie on a big screen on a long flight. The “compromised” iPad that fits in my pocket while I’m traveling is much more useful than the “better” iPad setting at home on my desk.

To be clear, I’m unlikely to get one, but the idea that because it has an “extra” feature it’s “useless” is just silly.

Now you have some seriously flawed logic and strawman capabilities. I said the primary function of a smartphone is portability. Having cameras, a cellular modem, etc. that are features does not change that in a way that converting a smartphone into a tablet does.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

i am asking for a bigger tablet like screen....

Yes, and there are people like you who will buy this. I never said foldable smartphones won’t exist. Just that they will end up being too niche.

 

[surferfb]

Now you have some seriously flawed logic and strawman capabilities. I said the primary function of a smartphone is portability. Having cameras, a cellular modem, etc. that are features does not change that in a way that converting a smartphone into a tablet does.

So let me make sure I understand your argument. “Portability” is the “primary feature” of an iPhone, but an iPhone with a larger screen in a more portable form factor is useless?

 

[poorcody]

I predict Apple will easily sell the 10 million units they ordered. My prediction like others is worthless, so ignore it.

Obviously price will limit sales. Although when you think about it, if you really wanted the fold, you just could upgrade half-as-frequently and end up spending the same amount of money.

The only turn-off to me is missing the telephoto, but with a 50 megapixels, the 3x-5x zoom shots I've seen on the Fold 8 are good enough for me. The truth is the cameras have been good enough for me since maybe the 8+. It's great they are improving them, but for just amateur shots they are almost overkill for me anyway.

What problem does it solve? Open a desktop-version of a random website on a Pro Max. Not a great experience. Turn it on its side it's a little better but short. Open that site on an iPad mini, and it just crosses the threshold to now be a good experience. If you use your phone for TikTok and Instagram, probably not worth the cost. If you read books, website articles, etc., it is an exciting upgrade to be able to do these things on a device in your pocket.

Comprise? Actually, the opposite. You get a a roughly iPhone-mini sized phone with an iPad-mini sized tablet. Best of both worlds in my view. Yes, more delicate. But also I no longer have to deal with the awkward sized Pro Max in my pocket and hand.

But I also look at the intangibles. I was surprised how different the Fold 8 fit in my hand. Felt more like the old days of phone sizes, and the experience of unfolding is exciting. I've watched a lot of YouTube reviews on it, and a lot of people liked it even when they didn't expect to. And many of them switched to it which they didn't expect to. And six weeks later, a lot of follow-up videos confirm they are still liking it.

Plastic screen? I had a plastic screen protector on my iPhones for years. Switching to glass -- I don't even remember noticing a difference.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

So let me make sure I understand your argument. “Portability” is the “primary feature” of an iPhone, but an iPhone with a larger screen in a more portable form factor is useless?

The iPhone in a screen size that approaches an iPad Mini screen size is a tablet. So yes, my position is it’s a useless function for most people because it passes a threshold of why people use smartphones.

 

[surferfb]

The iPhone in a screen size that approaches an iPad Mini screen size is a tablet. So yes, my position is it’s a useless function for most people because it passes a threshold of why people use smartphones.

That doesn’t make any sense to me at all, but I guess that’s why we see this differently. We’ll see what happens. Cheers!

 

[Bkdodger]

At the end of the day there is a use case for all the products right now and there will be one for the foldable.

 

[East India Company]

How much money have they made? Also yes, other brands have been selling them for 8 generations now. The total percentage of the smartphone market globally that foldable smartphones have is 2%.

Interesting discussion. The main point is evidently what we will qualify as success or failure. In the meantime, maybe a good way to judge the overall market would be to compare the proportions of pro/high end phone to foldables and see if that grows or not.
Foldables will surely not capture market shares from mid-low end phones but rather from the other high end phones.

 

[Bkdodger]

Galaxy Z Fold 8 Series Is Crushing It in the US — Samsung Shared the Numbers

The Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 8 series is crushing sales in the US, and the Galaxy Z Fold 8 is especially popular.

www.androidheadlines.com

 

[kp98077]

will this be like their "VR" which I believe is a flop?

 

[Cape Dave]

I wonder which will sell better, this or the new iPad mini?

 

[unkl bob]

OP said:

The iPad with magic keyboard is a lawn-mower with wings:

Could not agree more.

 

[ibRckr]

You know that the only thing that is needed for an Apple product to be successful is the logo on the back right?
That’s it.

 

[serpico007]

In all the years I’ve never seen a Samsung foldable in the wild and never seen the iPhone Air. As others have stated, this must be a small niche group who own these products. A rich niche group.

 

[deconstruct60]

Global Foldable Shipments to Hit 100-million Cumulative Milestone by End of 2026

Cumulative global foldable smartphone shipments are set to surpass 100 million units by the end of 2026. Foldables are currently in their eighth generation since the emergence of the category in 2019.

counterpointresearch.com

Apple is entering a market that is far from being brand new. The number of foldable sold has gone up every year.
The larger ones are more expensive than the single slab phones so the unit volume is not super high but ‘millions’ is something the AVP did not do.

the $2K process is an issue but the base price of all cellphones is going up . So the price gap isn’t getting any bigger.


There is hard quantativd data out there that shows there are a substantive number of buyers in this market. Apple.s entry is likely to be mostly expansive to the market ( I.e., add iOS users who would like one more so them pulling older Android users out of Android foldable options. )

You don’t and won’t see people standing in line at a grocery store with one basket of food in one hand and an unfolded smartphone in the other hand. One handed device use is one of the main use cases of non-folding smartphones.

Your are just not to standing in the right store in the right neighborhood. 😀


2024 …
“…. global shipments of foldable phones reached 15.9 million units in 2023, marking a 25% YoY increase and accounting for approximately 1.4% of the overall smartphone market. In 2024, shipments are expected to rise to about 17.7 million units, growing by 11% and slightly increasing the market share to 1.5%. However, this growth rate remains below market expectations, with the segment’s share predicted to exceed 2% only by 2025.
… “

Global Foldable Phone Shipments to Reach 17.7 Million in 2024, Yearly Increase Slows to 11%, Says TrendForce

TrendForce reports that global shipments of foldable phones reached 15.9 million units in 2023, marking a 25% YoY increase and accounting for approximately 1.4% of the overall smartphone market.

www.trendforce.com

Go ahead and attack me, and for anyone wanting this device on day 1, that’s great. I don’t think foldables will not exist, but a device that doesn’t have much of a reason to exist is nothing more than a niche market device at best.

Not every iPhone users needs an Apple Watch … doesn’t mean Apple shouldn’t sell them. This prediction sound like much of the moaning and groaning around the Apple Watch for first 2-3 … it is a fail.. the unit volumes aren’t as high as iPhone … my < insert Swiss watch vendor name here > watch tells time …

 

[ChantyBinx]

Apple knows best! I’ll continue making “mistakes” because they have turned out to be correct.

sure, but don't conflate the AVP with this, totally different products / markets / attempts at something

 

[Pbwallstreet]

Galaxy Z Fold 8 Series Is Crushing It in the US — Samsung Shared the Numbers

The Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 8 series is crushing sales in the US, and the Galaxy Z Fold 8 is especially popular.

www.androidheadlines.com

Crushing it to such an extent that the latest marketshare figures are that foldables are 2% of the total smartphone market.

Let me fix the headline: “Non-folding smartphones are Pulverizing it.”

 

[ayephoner]

A lawnmower with wings.

Since all other efforts just seem to be OP talking in circles, I'll point out that while it doesn't have wings, the hover lawnmower is a useful piece of equipment.

 

[deconstruct60]

.

• Because of the folding capability, and this is a big deal, it has to have a PLASTIC SCREEN. Plastic is noticeably inferior to glass from an optics standpoint, including reflections,

This is not true . If want to make a cheap as possible foldable plastic becomes more of the only option. But it is not necessarily if budget is higher. glass can be cut thin.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

Global Foldable Shipments to Hit 100-million Cumulative Milestone by End of 2026

Cumulative global foldable smartphone shipments are set to surpass 100 million units by the end of 2026. Foldables are currently in their eighth generation since the emergence of the category in 2019.

counterpointresearch.com

Apple is entering a market that is far from being brand new. The number of foldable sold has gone up every year.
The larger ones are more expensive than the single slab phones so the unit volume is not super high but ‘millions’ is something the AVP did not do.

the $2K process is an issue but the base price of all cellphones is going up . So the price gap isn’t getting any bigger.


There is hard quantativd data out there that shows there are a substantive number of buyers in this market. Apple.s entry is likely to be mostly expansive to the market ( I.e., add iOS users who would like one more so them pulling older Android users out of Android foldable options. )




Your are just not to standing in the right store in the right neighborhood. 😀


2024 …
“…. global shipments of foldable phones reached 15.9 million units in 2023, marking a 25% YoY increase and accounting for approximately 1.4% of the overall smartphone market. In 2024, shipments are expected to rise to about 17.7 million units, growing by 11% and slightly increasing the market share to 1.5%. However, this growth rate remains below market expectations, with the segment’s share predicted to exceed 2% only by 2025.
… “

Global Foldable Phone Shipments to Reach 17.7 Million in 2024, Yearly Increase Slows to 11%, Says TrendForce

TrendForce reports that global shipments of foldable phones reached 15.9 million units in 2023, marking a 25% YoY increase and accounting for approximately 1.4% of the overall smartphone market.

www.trendforce.com

Not every iPhone users needs an Apple Watch … doesn’t mean Apple shouldn’t sell them. This prediction sound like much of the moaning and groaning around the Apple Watch for first 2-3 … it is a fail.. the unit volumes aren’t as high as iPhone … my < insert Swiss watch vendor name here > watch tells time …

Foldables are 2% of the smartphone market after 7 years.