Yes, I know people will jump on this and flame me. But this is a prediction and we will see if I am right or wrong over time.
I predicted the AVP would fail because it was obvious: it was worse at many things compared to other device types like smartphones and laptops and desktops. That it didn’t have much of a reason to exist.
Same too for the Fold. It is worse at several things compared to non-folding smartphones, laptops, desktops… and doesn’t have much of a reason to exist.
- Unfolded or folded, the Fold has seams since effectively 2 slabs are sandwiched onto each other and with a hinge. It will always therefore be design compromised compared to a non-folding smartphone.
- Because of the folding capability, and this is a big deal, it has to have a PLASTIC SCREEN. Plastic is noticeably inferior to glass from an optics standpoint, including reflections, and it will have a crease. And over time, we can see that the crease gets more pronounced with other Foldables. So on this, it will have a worse screen than non-folding products like an iPhone or MacBook or iPad.
- Fragility and processing power: it will be more fragile because they have to make each slab as thin as possible and there is a hinge, which is subject to breaking and failure. And the thermals suffer which can compromise performance.
- Very few use cases: the Fold turns into a tablet… but people buy and use non-folding smartphones precisely because of its form-factor: pocketable, one handed use, simple interfaces in software, etc. They aren’t asking for something to turn into a tablet, it doesn’t fit the use cases. And the stats support people not wanting Folds: Foldable smartphones after several years on the market still only have less than 5% of the total smartphone marketshare.
You don’t and won’t see people standing in line at a grocery store with one basket of food in one hand and an unfolded smartphone in the other hand. One handed device use is one of the main use cases of non-folding smartphones.
And for people who also like and want a tablet, it comes down to the problem of the fold being inferior across a set of things to a non-folding iPad.
I don’t see, therefore, how an iPhone Fold can be successful for Apple. Will some people buy it? Yes. How is failure defined? For Apple, it would be not leading in marketshare in the category and not capturing enough customers to make it a viable category to continue developing. Apple needs relatively large markets and scale, and that is not going to happen with the Fold is my prediction.
Go ahead and attack me, and for anyone wanting this device on day 1, that’s great. I don’t think foldables will not exist, but a device that doesn’t have much of a reason to exist is nothing more than a niche market device at best.
