iPhone Duo Why the iPhone Fold will Fail [MERGED] [MEGA THREAD]

[Dirk Pieters]

How does this “affect” in a positive way the customer? It will not bend at your fingernails pressure? The crease is not visible? I think this is a spec false hype for the normal people, facts never lie, the inner display remains more fragile than the outer one

Indeed, admitting that this foldable glass needs a plastic layer on top just shows how fragile that glass really is. The fact that the same plastic layer can be easily scratches makes the entire concept a bit strange. The solution to the problem creates a problem of its own.

 

[Ctrlos]

I think this folding iPhone (Ultra or Duo, who cares…) will work like a timebomb for John Ternus. This absolutely bizarre idea belongs to Tim Cook, who got inspired by some people who liked foldable phones in Asia. But Asia is no America, and no Europe for sure.

I don’t believe people are eager to have even larger phones or folding phones at all, as well as we are getting to the point of big economic crisis and “right turn” for whole Europe, including UK, which will start around next year and will get to the tipping point around 2029. In this political and economic landscape NO ONE will need more foldable phones, no matter from Apple, Samsung, Google or even Lenovo-Motorola. They are super expensive and impractical, just like AVP. And people will only be getting poorer.

Though I am worried how it is gonna influence Apple stocks, I don’t like these “innovative” experiments because of how volatile stock price can become. Apple needs to stick to what sells, not to what “theoretically sells less but gives more $$$”

The market for foldables has slowly but surely grown over the last 8 years. Nice they may be (largely due to price) but I have seen more and more of them around as time has gone on. I live in the suburbs in a UK city of around 600k people and I regularly see them on hand on public transport, the hairdressers, the school run and more besides. Ditto the iPhone Air actually. The same applies when I travel around, Europeans always being more embracing of new ideas.

Apple command about 50% of the UK phone market and Samsung sit at 30% (overall, not of just Android). Apple launching a foldable is a big deal and will only serve to make them more uniquitous. The local Apple Store has a heck of a lot more footfall than any of the phone shops so exposure is important.

The price isn't really an issue. Most people just tack it onto their monthly bill and split the difference. A folding iPhone would just be an extra £10 a month not accounting for network deals.

 

[Ctrlos]

Indeed, admitting that this foldable glass needs a plastic layer on top just shows how fragile that glass really is. The fact that the same plastic layer can be easily scratches makes the entire concept a bit strange. The solution to the problem creates a problem of its own.

But how many people take their regular phone and stick it in a case and put a screen protector on top? Its not really any more fragile than any other phone hitting concrete in a naked state.

 

[Dirk Pieters]

But how many people take their regular phone and stick it in a case and put a screen protector on top? Its not really any more fragile than any other phone hitting concrete in a naked state.

Not sure, but I think the bending part is more fragile towards the glass unlike a slab phone, which has no moving parts in the glass department. Did some reading and a lot of it seems to be about micro fractures in the folding glass which could lead to failure eventually. That's what the plastic layer does to the folding glass.

I have my iPhone in a cover, so the back is protected. That cover sits about 1mm higher compared to the glass at the front, so I can place the phone front down on a table without touching. I've never used a screen protector on my phones for that reason.

 

[ChantyBinx]

iPhone Fold won't fail, the Samsung's haven't failed they've found a solid chunk of the market. Totally different to the AVP.

And even if it remains a niche, still not a failure.

The mini phones, Plus phones and possibly even the Air if it gets a second version then nothing more, I wouldn't say a failure either. Sales not meeting Apple's wishes are still sales numbers large enough to sustain entire companies... naturally they focus on bigger more popular models.

AVP is in real trouble but they can probably afford to shoulder that until the rest of the world catches up, a luxury unique to a company of Apple's size.

don't make the mistake into thinking you know better than modern Apple. I wouldn't even trust other million/billionaire or huge firm CEOs opinions on Apple, so no disrespect, why would I trust yours. Sounds more like you hope it fails.

 

[naturalguy]

You couldn’t be more wrong, they are going to sell a TON of these

 

[D-a-a-n]

Yes, I know people will jump on this and flame me. But this is a prediction and we will see if I am right or wrong over time.

I predicted the AVP would fail because it was obvious: it was worse at many things compared to other device types like smartphones and laptops and desktops. That it didn’t have much of a reason to exist.

Same too for the Fold. It is worse at several things compared to non-folding smartphones, laptops, desktops… and doesn’t have much of a reason to exist.

• Unfolded or folded, the Fold has seams since effectively 2 slabs are sandwiched onto each other and with a hinge. It will always therefore be design compromised compared to a non-folding smartphone.
• Because of the folding capability, and this is a big deal, it has to have a PLASTIC SCREEN. Plastic is noticeably inferior to glass from an optics standpoint, including reflections, and it will have a crease. And over time, we can see that the crease gets more pronounced with other Foldables. So on this, it will have a worse screen than non-folding products like an iPhone or MacBook or iPad.
• Fragility and processing power: it will be more fragile because they have to make each slab as thin as possible and there is a hinge, which is subject to breaking and failure. And the thermals suffer which can compromise performance.
• Very few use cases: the Fold turns into a tablet… but people buy and use non-folding smartphones precisely because of its form-factor: pocketable, one handed use, simple interfaces in software, etc. They aren’t asking for something to turn into a tablet, it doesn’t fit the use cases. And the stats support people not wanting Folds: Foldable smartphones after several years on the market still only have less than 5% of the total smartphone marketshare.

You don’t and won’t see people standing in line at a grocery store with one basket of food in one hand and an unfolded smartphone in the other hand. One handed device use is one of the main use cases of non-folding smartphones.

And for people who also like and want a tablet, it comes down to the problem of the fold being inferior across a set of things to a non-folding iPad.

I don’t see, therefore, how an iPhone Fold can be successful for Apple. Will some people buy it? Yes. How is failure defined? For Apple, it would be not leading in marketshare in the category and not capturing enough customers to make it a viable category to continue developing. Apple needs relatively large markets and scale, and that is not going to happen with the Fold is my prediction.

Go ahead and attack me, and for anyone wanting this device on day 1, that’s great. I don’t think foldables will not exist, but a device that doesn’t have much of a reason to exist is nothing more than a niche market device at best.

I think it will be a moderate success, because unlike the AVP, the fold already has a market. Also 2K is less then 3.5K. People will buy it for the novelty.

 

[riverfreak]

These assertions (of the OP) may be true, but the problem with this hot take is that it ignores all of the other factors that go into the decision to launch any product.

Apple’s phenomenal success is based on the iPhone and the downstream (and highly profitable) services-based rundle lock in iPhones invite.

I have no idea what the uptake for foldables currently is. But if it is 5% of market like bandied about in this thread, Apple cannot afford to ignore the segment any longer. It’s a similar motivation for big mobile operators to also offer MVNOs with reversed economics - they don’t want to lose those customers and the rundles of cash they come with.

I’ve only seen one foldable outside of a store in the US. That’s not the case elsewhere where they are already quite common. I suspect the same trend to wash over the once gleaming shores of the US, too, which is pretty clearly no longer the cultural juggernaut it once was.

The deeper and more intellectually interesting question is how does a multi trillion dollar company maintain an edge in the face of increasingly intense competition, plateauing technical options for their most prominent product, waning interest and even aversion to technology, all in an environment of uncertain economic (inflation, tariffs) and market headwinds (parts availability.)

 

[ayephoner]

I always find this interesting that some people seem to think that people want a larger screen such as a double size jumbo smartphone screen X2. People are not asking for this. Some people like it. Some people have bought into foldable smartphones. But after 7 years, it is still only 2% of the global smartphone marketshare. That's reality.

I don't think anyone is claiming that foldables will be a tremendous chunk of the market share. But, there really aren't all that many of them available. Obviously Apple making one available offers them to nearly a quarter of smartphone users that absolutely wouldn't consider one otherwise. Motorola, Xiaomi, and others(?) have this exact form factor coming out soon.

I've done usability studies on smartphones and tablets. There is a threshold of screen size where something starts to breakdown in terms of convenience and efficiency. One handed use pretty much becomes impossible with a large sized unfolded smartphone. That is not what people are wanting in many applications they use their smartphone for. They are using a standard smartphone precisely because it allows one handed use with interfaces that work for that use case. As soon as that screen size grows like to an iPad Mini size, the user not only needs to generally use two hands to keep the device held steady, they have to deal with user interfaces where the hit targets (e.g., buttons) are farther away, so the arms and fingers and hands have longer distances to travel. This is where it's less efficient in straightforward use cases.

Tablets are good at consumption when it comes to reading books, news, browsing the Internet for shopping, and things like this. For productivity, larger screen sizes generally afford more productivity, and foldable smartphones are limited here. The Trifold is interesting, but absurd in terms of three effective smartphones sandwiched together.

Is anyone talking about using a foldable phone, unfolded, with one hand? Why would this ever be something you would do or even try? If you want to use it one-handed, fold it up and use the smaller screen. As you say, unfolded, it's for two-handed use and/or media consumption.

Ultimately, this is a device for a small subsection of users. Maybe that subsection is big enough to make this thing a "success", maybe not. I do think it's telling that almost every manufacturer is making an almost identical form factor. If everything you say is true about this being an awful form factor that nobody wants, why is every company making one?

 

[gadget123]

Isn’t it well documented it will fail? I read they are hardly producing any of them. If I was going to buy a foldable the Google models look better as they are taller.

 

[surferfb]

Isn’t it well documented it will fail? I read they are hardly producing any of them. If I was going to buy a foldable the Google models look better as they are taller.

How could a prediction of the future be “well documented?”

 

[gadget123]

How could a prediction of the future be “well documented?”

Well it’s never going to replace Pro Max sales or become standard model.

 

[PandaPunch]

The market for foldables has slowly but surely grown over the last 8 years. Nice they may be (largely due to price) but I have seen more and more of them around as time has gone on. I live in the suburbs in a UK city of around 600k people and I regularly see them on hand on public transport, the hairdressers, the school run and more besides. Ditto the iPhone Air actually. The same applies when I travel around, Europeans always being more embracing of new ideas.

Apple command about 50% of the UK phone market and Samsung sit at 30% (overall, not of just Android). Apple launching a foldable is a big deal and will only serve to make them more uniquitous. The local Apple Store has a heck of a lot more footfall than any of the phone shops so exposure is important.

The price isn't really an issue. Most people just tack it onto their monthly bill and split the difference. A folding iPhone would just be an extra £10 a month not accounting for network deals.

Personally, I didn't have a strong opinion either way about foldable phones and where I live, I haven't seen too many foldable smartphones (at least, I don't think so) and I'm unlikely to get a foldable smartphone since much like laptops, I'm not really the biggest fan of smartphones in general but I can see foldable phones being more and more popular as time goes on.

 

[Luftkopf]

Well it’s never going to replace Pro Max sales or become standard model.

"Selling as much as the Pro Max" is not the pass mark by which we can judge the success or failure of the folding iPhone. It could sell in the same numbers as the iPhone Air, and be a success!

One of the big problems in this thread is that everyone has their own private metric to judge the sales of the folding iPhone by, but none of us know Apple's. Given the price and market position, I don't believe Apple is expecting it to sell anywhere near Pro Max numbers.

 

[ayephoner]

Isn’t it well documented it will fail? I read they are hardly producing any of them. If I was going to buy a foldable the Google models look better as they are taller.

Operating system is going to guide decision making infinitely more than which device is taller.

 

[surferfb]

Well it’s never going to replace Pro Max sales or become standard model.

I don’t think anyone thinks it’s going to do that. The Pro Max consistently sells fewer units than the base model, and the Pro sells consistently fewer units than the Pro Max, and we don’t consider them failures. So why would we say “it’s a failure if it’s not the number one selling phone?”

As I noted above, if the foldable sells 2-3% better than the Air, which everyone considers a flop, it will likely produce more revenue for Apple than the iPad or Mac. Once you get into iPhone volumes and prices over $2k, it doesn’t take a lot of sales to start being serious money.

 

[fj_doebz]

App developer Steve Troughton-Smith agrees with your skepticism OP

Whoever he is.. I’d rather listed to the opinion of Jony Wannacode. LOL

 

[fj_doebz]

I had the same discussions with people when I predicted the AVP would fail. The AVP didn’t even meet Apple’s internal, paltry sales expectations and then they scaled production back.

You didn’t need a crystal ball or more than one brain cell to predict that. 🙄

 

[4sallypat]

To be fair, knowing you (a bit) and your purchases (a bit) ... that might actually be close.

You're sort of tempted but you want to see it first, right?

Right? 😉

You are reading me correctly! 😉

I am hoping to be swayed into switching out from my Google Pixel pro fold today.

Will see in a few hours.... 🫢

 

[ascender]

If I still had to commute in to an office every day, I could see me buying a folding iPhone, especially as the tech has come on leaps and bounds this last while. Add in the rumoured Pencil support and I can see why this device will appeal to some people.

New models of folding phones are still being produced all the time, so there's clearly more than just a niche market for these.

Its not for me, but I wouldn't write it off as being a success.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

Not sure how you missed the news that ultra-thin bendable glass has been a primary component in better foldable smartphone displays for years. Here's a good primer:

https://www.androidcentral.com/phones/how-does-glass-bend

Sure the topmost layer will be some type of plastic, and there are plastic layers on which the illuminated image layer and the touch-sensitive layer are applied (since applying those to the glass layers runs the risk of those layers cracking, but not because the glass will crack, since it won't), but the plastic layers aren't the only ones in the screen, they're part of a sandwich of layers that together add up to the whole screen. The glass layers are there to provide rigidity, a more solid feel, optical flatness, and some crease reduction. The topmost plastic layer is there to provide at least partial protection for the glass layer under it from simple scratches that could weaken the glass. Unfortunately it's true that the plastic layers are what's mainly responsible for the crease that can get worse over time. Maybe that problem will be fixed over time with better plastic formulations.

Why are you stating what is known? I already addressed this.

The outer screen surface is generally plastic. Samsung, for instance, explicitly identifies its foldable protective film as PET plastic.

 

[ayephoner]

If I still had to commute in to an office every day, I could see me buying a folding iPhone, especially as the tech has come on leaps and bounds this last while. Add in the rumoured Pencil support and I can see why this device will appeal to some people.

New models of folding phones are still being produced all the time, so there's clearly more than just a niche market for these.

Its not for me, but I wouldn't write it off as being a success.

I completely agree that commuters would be the main segment of the population I see wanting one of these. Some occupations, like maybe realtors or inspectors of some sort, that need to do bigger, more office-like tasks on the go might also really like something like this.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

To be fair: no one asked for a touchscreen when Apple released the first iPhone. We were all used to Blackberries and similar phones.

I'm not in the market for a an Ultra/Duo or whatever it will be called so I'm not defending it. I would just like to point out that "people not asking for something" means very little.

I do wonder exactly what (if anything) people are asking for in the current range of iPhones? Very little I think. It's a mature product. You have the world's data on a screen in your hand and you can query it from pretty much anywhere. That's why the yearly upgrades are often limited to a slightly better camera, a color and a faster chip.

What else is there to add?

Actually, people were wanting touchscreen phones when the iPhone 1 came out.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

My guess is that price was a huge part in AVP not taking off. In this day and economy a device that expensive is out of range for most people. Judging by the initial success and sales of Neo, I think we can conclude that a huuuuuuuge part of the market doesn't have AVP money to spare.

I know it's impossible, but if AVP had been $499 then it would have been an impulse buy for many customers. $499 you can recover from if you don't like it. $3499 is a completely different ballpark.

My position is that the AVP failing had nothing to do with price and everything to do with it being a relatively useless product for most people. As I have said before, you could give 100 random people an AVP and most of them would try it once, and then put it up for sale…

 

[Pbwallstreet]

But how many people take their regular phone and stick it in a case and put a screen protector on top? Its not really any more fragile than any other phone hitting concrete in a naked state.

Ya it is. The crease gets more pronounced over time, the plastic scratches more easily. Manufacturers like Samsung state in their documentation not to use screen protectors on Folds because they can adversely affect the plastic layer. And also may affect the crease.

The difference is on non-folding phones, screen protectors are temporary and replaceable, but the plastic layer on Folds is permanent.