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Other Why the iPhone Fold will Fail

surferfb said:
As I replied to you when you posted this thread last year, that “2%” marketshare is without Apple offering a foldable.

I am not saying the iPhone foldable is guaranteed to be a mass hit (in fact, I don’t expect it to be anywhere close to the most popular iPhone sold), but it's not as simple as "only 2% to date, so no wants one."

Apple has a global market share of something like 67% of phones sold over $1000 USD. Which means, to date, roughly 2 out of every 3 people potentially interested in a foldable would have to switch OSes to get one, and most people won't consider switching OSes.

If only 10% of iPhones sold are foldables (which is a few percentage points higher than estimates for the iPhone Air that everyone says has flopped), that would increase the global rate to something like 5% of all phones sold being foldables. It's also highly possible that the fact that Apple makes a foldable (and presumably advertises it heavily) draws attention to the product category and the share of Android foldables rises as well.

And remember, the revenue on these is going to sky high. Let’s assume 10% of iPhones sold are foldable.At a $2000 average selling price (and ASP will be higher than that), that's like $20-30 billion in additional revenue a year. Which could match all Macs sold (~$30b) or all iPads (~$28 billion). It’s like getting a decent percentage of your best customers to buy one-and-a-half to two iPhones instead of one.

It's still serious revenue if we drop that to 5% of iPhones sold (less than iPhone Air) - $10-$15 billion in additional revenue - so a little less than Apple Watch annual revenue. Even if you are right, and Apple just matches the 2% market share Android foldables have to date, it's an extra $5 billion in revenue.

No one is arguing the foldable will be the #1 selling iPhone, but I think you're seriously underestimating how few (relatively speaking) they have to sell for it to be very worthwhile for Apple.
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I predict the global foldable smartphone marketshare after iPhone Fold launches to be 2.7% on the year.
 
MR giving us a secret preview of the "9 iPhone Event!"
Screenshot 2026-09-08 at 10.40.45 PM.png

There was never an iPhone 9! This can only mean Apple is finally going to release an iPhone 9. Maybe we will get an iPhone 2 after that!
 
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Pbwallstreet said:
I predict the global foldable smartphone marketshare after iPhone Fold launches to be 2.7% on the year.
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I predict 1/3 of the current 2% foldable market (0.66) will switch to Apple. Net new sales will come in at (0.48) making for a 3.14% total foldable market on the year.
 
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@Pbwallstreet why not let the announcement happen, let the chips fall, and take it from there. Oh that's right you're a troll who wants to create unnecessary arguments to annoy people. Well I hope for your sake the Ultra or Duo or whatev is a total flop so you can return right here to this regardlessly pointless thread you created and lord that over all of us. We will all be waiting to bow down to your stupidity I mean superiority I mean honestly who the F cares.
 
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I feel more like that: iphone air flopped because it was compared to its siblings. But its a good phone in general. If i got it, i would have loved it.
I think the same will happen with the foldable device. It will be a good device in general tho.
 
surferfb said:
As I replied to you when you posted this thread last year, that “2%” marketshare is without Apple offering a foldable.

I am not saying the iPhone foldable is guaranteed to be a mass hit (in fact, I don’t expect it to be anywhere close to the most popular iPhone sold), but it's not as simple as "only 2% to date, so no wants one."

Apple has a global market share of something like 67% of phones sold over $1000 USD. Which means, to date, roughly 2 out of every 3 people potentially interested in a foldable would have to switch OSes to get one, and most people won't consider switching OSes.

If only 10% of iPhones sold are foldables (which is a few percentage points higher than estimates for the iPhone Air that everyone says has flopped), that would increase the global rate to something like 5% of all phones sold being foldables. It's also highly possible that the fact that Apple makes a foldable (and presumably advertises it heavily) draws attention to the product category and the share of Android foldables rises as well.

And remember, the revenue on these is going to sky high. Let’s assume 10% of iPhones sold are foldable.At a $2000 average selling price (and ASP will be higher than that), that's like $20-30 billion in additional revenue a year. Which could match all Macs sold (~$30b) or all iPads (~$28 billion). It’s like getting a decent percentage of your best customers to buy one-and-a-half to two iPhones instead of one.

It's still serious revenue if we drop that to 5% of iPhones sold (less than iPhone Air) - $10-$15 billion in additional revenue - so a little less than Apple Watch annual revenue. Even if you are right, and Apple just matches the 2% market share Android foldables have to date, it's an extra $5 billion in revenue.

No one is arguing the foldable will be the #1 selling iPhone, but I think you're seriously underestimating how few (relatively speaking) they have to sell for it to be very worthwhile for Apple.
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Pretty much mike drop. F that guy.
 
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Jeweller said:
Pretty much mike drop. F that guy.
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Why do you and people like you have what looks like an emotional response to someone talking about how they think a potential Apple product will fail? What is it that got you to take time out of your busy life to engage in a discussion I started?
 
4sallypat said:
So you are saying I have a 33% chance of switching from my Pixel Pro Fold to the Apple Folding ??
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I’ve followed your posts for some time here, @4sallypat and I’d say if you’re living the good life in retirement, flying your plane, traveling the world, and rocking a Neo AND a new Mac Studio, then there’s a 33% chance you’ll buy one in addition to your Pixel! 😉
 
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Pbwallstreet said:
Why do you and people like you have what looks like an emotional response to someone talking about how they think a potential Apple product will fail? What is it that got you to take time out of your busy life to engage in a discussion I started?
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now that's a question. I just want to sleep tbh
 
Pbwallstreet said:
Yes, I know people will jump on this and flame me. But this is a prediction and we will see if I am right or wrong over time.

I predicted the AVP would fail because it was obvious: it was worse at many things compared to other device types like smartphones and laptops and desktops. That it didn’t have much of a reason to exist.

Same too for the Fold. It is worse at several things compared to non-folding smartphones, laptops, desktops… and doesn’t have much of a reason to exist.

  • Unfolded or folded, the Fold has seams since effectively 2 slabs are sandwiched onto each other and with a hinge. It will always therefore be design compromised compared to a non-folding smartphone.
  • Because of the folding capability, and this is a big deal, it has to have a PLASTIC SCREEN. Plastic is noticeably inferior to glass from an optics standpoint, including reflections, and it will have a crease. And over time, we can see that the crease gets more pronounced with other Foldables. So on this, it will have a worse screen than non-folding products like an iPhone or MacBook or iPad.
  • Fragility and processing power: it will be more fragile because they have to make each slab as thin as possible and there is a hinge, which is subject to breaking and failure. And the thermals suffer which can compromise performance.
  • Very few use cases: the Fold turns into a tablet… but people buy and use non-folding smartphones precisely because of its form-factor: pocketable, one handed use, simple interfaces in software, etc. They aren’t asking for something to turn into a tablet, it doesn’t fit the use cases. And the stats support people not wanting Folds: Foldable smartphones after several years on the market still only have less than 5% of the total smartphone marketshare.
You don’t and won’t see people standing in line at a grocery store with one basket of food in one hand and an unfolded smartphone in the other hand. One handed device use is one of the main use cases of non-folding smartphones.

And for people who also like and want a tablet, it comes down to the problem of the fold being inferior across a set of things to a non-folding iPad.

I don’t see, therefore, how an iPhone Fold can be successful for Apple. Will some people buy it? Yes. How is failure defined? For Apple, it would be not leading in marketshare in the category and not capturing enough customers to make it a viable category to continue developing. Apple needs relatively large markets and scale, and that is not going to happen with the Fold is my prediction.

Go ahead and attack me, and for anyone wanting this device on day 1, that’s great. I don’t think foldables will not exist, but a device that doesn’t have much of a reason to exist is nothing more than a niche market device at best.
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I don’t think you’re wrong. Not an expert on newer folding phones but I have been a longtime loyal new iPhone annually customer. I have zero interest in a foldable phone for many of the reasons you indicated. I have been hoping for this first year lots of folks fall for the gimmick factor and opt for the Fold which will just help ensure I get whatever phone is my preference more easily. 🤣
 
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I think subjectivity and perceptions are within the hearts and minds of tigers everywhere.

My honest thoughts...

The folding phone era, has been interesting. Years ago ,when I was with Mobile service provider "3" in (Australia), I had a folding phone, beautiful phone, limited data obviously and 3G. I loved it though, because it was small enough to fill in my pocket.

Looking at Android's folding phone stuff from Samsnung etc , I have been somewhat okay with what I am saying from Android in that regard. Now Apple probably may make the folding factor "cool" again, but how it is designed and how it will be seen as two main critical issues for me. I already know that I won't be buying it, because it would seem redundant to own an Apple fold that folds into a bigger screen , when I have an foriPad "work" (i use that with air quotes, lol)" and entertainment on the bigger screen. My iPhone has literally just become a doormat for phone calls, texting and whatsapp communitcation with family across Australia.

I certainly will wait to see what they come up with. People will buy it, and people buy it blindly, and then there are people who cannot afford to buy it. (Complaining about the so called high price - If it's so high for you then it is not aimed for you).
 
Lounge vibes 05 said:
Which is pretty much the opposite of a folding phone.
Even if someone purchases one and doesn’t return it within the return window, they have to use it.
Because guess what? It’s their phone. And most people don’t have multiple phones. At least not multiple personal phones.
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Pretty much love you at this point
 
I'll lead with I have no desire for a folding phone, nor one of the huge slabs that others seem to prefer. However, I can remember a time when I bought all manner of expensive Sony products back in the 80s and 90s that I coveted, didn't need, and ended up rarely using because they were finicky, fragile or they were quickly left in the dust by the next coveted thing.

I have no idea what Apple considers a successful product, but considering that they take about 50% of the revenue in the entire mobile phone industry, 75% of the operating Profit and do that selling only about a quarter of the phones sold, they have more leeway to figure it out.

One note on the original post, Apple has invested Billions in Corning, and they make incredibly flexible VtG ion-exchange glass so I doubt this thing will have a plastic screen.
 
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darkridedp said:
I'll lead with I have no desire for a folding phone, nor one of the huge slabs that others seem to prefer. However, I can remember a time when I bought all manner of expensive Sony products back in the 80s and 90s that I coveted, didn't need, and ended up rarely using because they were finicky, fragile or they were quickly left in the dust by the next coveted thing.

I have no idea what Apple considers a successful product, but considering that they take about 50% of the revenue in the entire mobile phone industry, 75% of the operating Profit and do that selling only about a quarter of the phones sold, they have more leeway to figure it out.

One note on the original post, Apple has invested Billions in Corning, and they make incredibly flexible VtG ion-exchange glass so I doubt this thing will have a plastic screen.
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you seem grumpier than my lmao.
 
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