Will Vision Pro be a success

[MrMacintoshIII]

It’s an amazing piece of tech for sure. But crucially it doesn’t solve a problem. Smart phones solved problems, tablets solved problems, AirPods, laptops, solved problems.

Vision Pro allows people to see things in a cool funky medium, but it’s still not changing their productivity, it doesn’t allow them to achieve more, just different.

Vision Pro will be easier for people who feel pain to use than ANYTHING ELSE (in computing, obviously…) right now.

If you can’t sit, or stand, or use your hands or arms much on a keyboard/tablet… what can you use to be productive??

Your bull**** eyes.

Before any smartalec comments what I can do if I can’t sit or stand; I can stay in motion, or I can lie down. Wow! Vision Pro excels at these modes of existence where all other devices fail miserably, tell me more! No really, because unlike the rest of you, I’m so physically tired of holding things like this phone in my hands.

I work all day with my hands, when I’m ready to be an artist I’m too exhausted to use anything but my eyes.

Vision Pro is for ME and others like me!

 

[MrMacintoshIII]

It's highly unlikely it'll be a massive flop given Apple's place in the tech world nowadays. Now will it do big numbers, no it's a first gen product that's silly. But given time and future generations we'll see the Vision product lineup be a noticeable chunk of the Apple pie.

The bigger question is, how long do we have to wait for consumer models?

Good news!! Consumer models arrive in less than a month!!

 

[tomtad]

It's highly unlikely it'll be a massive flop given Apple's place in the tech world nowadays. Now will it do big numbers, no it's a first gen product that's silly. But given time and future generations we'll see the Vision product lineup be a noticeable chunk of the Apple pie.

The bigger question is, how long do we have to wait for consumer models?

I'm not sure I buy the too big to fail mantra. I agree it's hard to exactly define what is a success or not, but then again I wouldn't exactly call HomePod or even Apple TV as successes, more they are maintained and exist to have a product in those spaces. I feel this is where the Vision Pro will end up, just something people don't talk about much.

 

[Spaceboi Scaphandre]

I'm not sure I buy the too big to fail mantra. I agree it's hard to exactly define what is a success or not, but then again I wouldn't exactly call HomePod or even Apple TV as successes, more they are maintained and exist to have a product in those spaces. I feel this is where the Vision Pro will end up, just something people don't talk about much.

Apple TV has been doing great what? Back during Jobs era Apple TV was kinda meh since it was just a glorified Plex box, but under Tim Cook it's now the best streaming box in town.

HomePod carved a niche with the Mini for it's sound quality but the flagship HomePod itself yeah it sucks

Good news!! Consumer models arrive in less than a month!!

As for Vision Pro, we gotta remember the second half of it's name: Pro. This is the Pro model, designed and marketed to the highest end. Eventually (and hopefully soon) there will be a non-Pro model that will be a lot cheaper than the Pro model. They're already scrubbing all the Vision Pro mentions from visionOS and replacing them with just a blanketed Apple Vision, so hopefully we won't have to wait long for the non-Pro model. Though from rumors we heard the non-Pro model won't be out until the second half of 2025 at the earliest.

 

[justin216]

With having 400k units on-hand (or whatever the official number ends up being), they'll almost certainly sell all of them. True success will be measured in device longevity, adoption, and ultimately, future product cycles.

Other new product launches -- phone, tablet, watch -- had a mix of excitement and panning at first, but ultimately jumped significantly in usability and popularity over time.

The only product line that I'd say has "failed", or perhaps not reached its potential, is the HomePod line. Beloved for some, but came in too high compared to its competition that was "good enough" in some ways and "great" in others. Feels like AVP could be that same thing.

Love the premise, I'll likely pick one up, but my expectations are tempered. Bare minimum, if it does sell out, hype and resale on them will make it a viable gamble to try out, can always resale it.

 

[Spaceboi Scaphandre]

With having 400k units on-hand (or whatever the official number ends up being), they'll almost certainly sell all of them. True success will be measured in device longevity, adoption, and ultimately, future product cycles.

Other new product launches -- phone, tablet, watch -- had a mix of excitement and panning at first, but ultimately jumped significantly in usability and popularity over time.

The only product line that I'd say has "failed", or perhaps not reached its potential, is the HomePod line. Beloved for some, but came in too high compared to its competition that was "good enough" in some ways and "great" in others. Feels like AVP could be that same thing.

Love the premise, I'll likely pick one up, but my expectations are tempered. Bare minimum, if it does sell out, hype and resale on them will make it a viable gamble to try out, can always resale it.

This is why I keep saying Vision Pro feels like a paper launch, moreso to sell the idea rather than the product, and the non-pro model will be the real launch once there's a healthy app library and more mass produced headset that is considerably cheaper. They'll have the early adopters buy it, love it, and others try it at the Apple Store, get disappointed that they love it but can't afford it, and then a year later boom the consumer model arrives that's over half the cost of the Vision Pro, so those who wanted one when they tried it at the Apple Store now can jump in. It's the same strategy they used with iPhone and it worked wonders there.

 

[VPsmith]

With having 400k units on-hand (or whatever the official number ends up being), they'll almost certainly sell all of them. True success will be measured in device longevity, adoption, and ultimately, future product cycles.

Other new product launches -- phone, tablet, watch -- had a mix of excitement and panning at first, but ultimately jumped significantly in usability and popularity over time.

The only product line that I'd say has "failed", or perhaps not reached its potential, is the HomePod line. Beloved for some, but came in too high compared to its competition that was "good enough" in some ways and "great" in others. Feels like AVP could be that same thing.

Love the premise, I'll likely pick one up, but my expectations are tempered. Bare minimum, if it does sell out, hype and resale on them will make it a viable gamble to try out, can always resale it.

Apple has all of the skills in-house to really make these headsets take off. And Apple this time will be number one due to the extreme cost and tight hardware software integration that uniquely only Apple has right now.

 

[Bromeo]

Like most of you, I’ve not experienced Vision Pro. I have dabbled with Google Daydream (sadly discontinued) and enjoyed a commercial VR headset experience. Both deeply intrigued me.

Many new products have a “default” use case. The iPhone was at least a fantastic cell phone. The Apple Watch was at least a compelling watch. The iPad was at least a sit-back reader (web, books, videos), as Steve Jobs so aptly demonstrated on stage. That these devices could do so much more was eventually their path, and in many cases they developed “can’t live without it” niche applications (pilots using iPads in the cockpit to replace reams of paper manuals and charts).

So what is the Vision Pro’s default use case that at least it does well? Perhaps that is watching movies, or spreading out virtual monitors. Because it can do virtual monitors so well, that could be a more durable default use case that could make it an indispensable tool for some. Someone on the road a lot might find it incredibly useful for working instead of sitting at a hotel room confined to a laptop screen. Imagine editing confidential contracts in a public space such as an airplane with the privacy and focus benefits of VP. Right now I use my iPad as a second screen when on the road. The VP could greatly expand on that idea.

Beyond the default, of course there are other great use cases for both the consumer and the professional. I especially like the idea of a home planetarium… lie down and gaze up at the stars anytime you want. Experiencing other locales could be a great way to meditate or even drift off to sleep. If I am editing a photo in VP, it would be neat to have handoff work in reverse, so I could easily display the image on a colleague’s iPad just by using some magic gesture and touching their iPad… Vision Drop.

Will Vision Pro be a success? I hope so. I’d like to see how Apple iterates on it.

 

[MrMacintoshIII]

So what is the Vision Pro’s default use case that at least it does well?

Music composition for those with chronic pain. I can hardly imagine a better tool for it.

 

[Eso]

I work all day with my hands, when I’m ready to be an artist I’m too exhausted to use anything but my eyes.

You need to tap your index finger and thumb together to “click”, then move them around to drag/scroll. There is going to be a lot of wrist movement with the AVP. Your gaze alone is just the mouse cursor/hover capability.

 

[MrMacintoshIII]

You need to tap your index finger and thumb together to “click”, then move them around to drag/scroll. There is going to be a lot of wrist movement with the AVP. Your gaze alone is just the mouse cursor/hover capability.

Wrist is fine, it’s arm strength I most end up lacking.

 

[throAU]

Many new products have a “default” use case. The iPhone was at least a fantastic cell phone. The Apple Watch was at least a compelling watch. The iPad was at least a sit-back reader (web, books, videos), as Steve Jobs so aptly demonstrated on stage. That these devices could do so much more was eventually their path, and in many cases they developed “can’t live without it” niche applications (pilots using iPads in the cockpit to replace reams of paper manuals and charts).

Agreed and worth noting is that for most of Apple's hit products, the "default" use case is no longer the most common and valuable use case.

Who even uses the iPhone as a Phone any more? It's a security token, an internet banking device, a web browser, messenger and entertainment device.

The watch was never so focused on fitness, but has later become its niche.

The iPad was a web browser/photo viewer and has now become essentially a more secure ultrabook or more versatile drawing tablet.

We don't actually know what the Vision Pro or any other new platform will "be for" until it has been available for a few years and people have time to experiment, experience, dream up new purposes and write software for it.

Another poster in this very thread indicated it would be awesome for people who can't move much, but can control the device with their eyes (and maybe voice, etc.).

It will open up new ways of computing, and also enable more people to use computers, if nothing else.

 

[throAU]

You need to tap your index finger and thumb together to “click”, then move them around to drag/scroll. There is going to be a lot of wrist movement with the AVP. Your gaze alone is just the mouse cursor/hover capability.

I'm sure apple will enable an option to use your voice to select things eventually. Or even a blink that takes more than the typical subconscious blink of an eye. left blink for X, right blink for Y...

 

[G5isAlive]

I agree it's hard to exactly define what is a success or not, but then again I wouldn't exactly call HomePod or even Apple TV as successes, more they are maintained and exist to have a product in those spaces.

I think you are painting too dark of a picture here. Most companies other than Apple would consider the HomePod or AppleTv as a great success. They don't sell like the iPhone, but really what does? There is a strong core of people that love both their AppleTv's and HomePods. I have 4 AppleTVs, actually travel with one, and more HomePods (mini and full-size) than I can remember.

 

[jclardy]

It’s an amazing piece of tech for sure. But crucially it doesn’t solve a problem. Smart phones solved problems, tablets solved problems, AirPods, laptops, solved problems.

Vision Pro allows people to see things in a cool funky medium, but it’s still not changing their productivity, it doesn’t allow them to achieve more, just different.

Hence it may be around for a while, but just like 3D TV and curved screens, it’s appeal will be limited.

You are speaking with the power of hindsight. All these things "solved problems" that didn't exist for the majority of people at the time. IE The car phone - why would you want a phone in the car? Just call them when you get there? The cell phone - Why would I carry this giant brick around with me just to make a phone call when there are payphones on every corner and anyone would let me use their house phone if I just knock on the door? What if they just stopped building the 12"x3" cell phones because people thought they had no use? Then we never have the iPhone.

Also what "problem" does a tablet solve in your mind? Drawing? I can do that with a wacom tablet on my mac 10 years before the iPad! By your own definition iPad should be put in with the 3D TV & Vision Pro because it "isn't allowing them to achieve more, just different" There isn't a single task that can be done on an iPad that couldn't be done on a mac years earlier.

 

[Realityck]

There isn't a single task that can be done on an iPad that couldn't be done on a mac years earlier.

Interesting choice of words "single task".
iPadOS which is an extended adaption of iOS, has less app interface depth then the same application interface depth on a AS Mac. Neither is the best iPad Pro a true multitasking environment, you can have some things in split screen windows running as multitasking, but in MacOS it is floating windows for each app running many processes all at the same time. You cannot launch 20 to 30 apps all at once and see them all open in so many seconds.

I have yet to see enough VisionOS demonstrations to judge how it fares in between iPadOS and MacOS.

 

[soulreaver99]

Hardware might be great, but adoption based on price is a lot for something that is still a novelty so it will be interesting how many app developers will support this full time

 

[bushman4]

Success or Failure? Depends what you’re expecting. Keep in mind its a first iteration of a new category which will have many improvements as we go along
If you don’t expect to much you won’t be disappointed and it will only get better

 

[Bodhitree]

I think it will sell out, there will be a shortage and long lead times and Apple will call it a success…

 

[Realityck]

Apple still has to beware of the Osborne Effect* when marketing Vision Pro. A majority of consumers realize that this technology is far from ideal to utilize yet.

It cannot really be compared to the development of the smart phone industry which is about a single telecommunications/computer device, highly mobile, and minuscule enough to be taken everywhere in one's pocket.

We all know that weight reduction and increased mobility are likely in the future. It's also possible an another class of mixed reality devices might render current implementations less desirable. It's difficult to predict this industry's future given how the quickly this competitive industry changes each year.

*While the company had wanted to keep the new products hidden from the general public until closer to its launch, customers heard of the upcoming machine's capabilities and mass-canceled their orders of the existing Osborne 1, leaving the company with an overflow of stock despite repeatedly lowering the price of the machine. The company would eventually file for bankruptcy in September of that year, giving origin to the term "Osborne Effect"

 

[vinegarshots]

Music composition for those with chronic pain. I can hardly imagine a better tool for it.

I can't imagine a person with chronic pain enjoying the sensation of over 1lb of glass and metal attached to their face for long periods of time, though

 

[Realityck]

A article touching upon this topics theme

Don't be so quick to judge Apple Vision Pro–even when it sells out

The spatial computing device is the hardest sell Apple has ever had to make.

www.macworld.com

• Success is not assured
• This new product is not like the others
• We can’t just measure sales (yet)
• Influence matters, but influence can wane
• The success of Apple Vision Pro will be measured by its successor

All valid considerations

Apple is desperate not to be compared to the several years worth of mixed reality products on the market already, going out of its way to use “Spatial Computing” to describe the product and insisting developers avoid terms like AR, VR, MR, and so on.

Thats an interesting observation. Apple does try to avoid allowing a product description to invite comparisons by using word play, using their own made up words against technology.

 

[Crow_Servo]

If I had to choose between predicting it as a success or dud, with nothing in between, I see it starting as a mild success that will grow over time.

 

[zakarhino]

Yes, Apple would not release this product unless they were confident in the long term success of the Vision platform. This is no HomePod or AirPower, it's not an accessory, it's very obviously Apple's declaration of "this is the future of our company." Vision Pro might have some issues technically as a first generation product and the price may be offputting for many but there's no stopping the train.

 

[Abazigal]

It’s an amazing piece of tech for sure. But crucially it doesn’t solve a problem. Smart phones solved problems, tablets solved problems, AirPods, laptops, solved problems.

Vision Pro allows people to see things in a cool funky medium, but it’s still not changing their productivity, it doesn’t allow them to achieve more, just different.

Hence it may be around for a while, but just like 3D TV and curved screens, it’s appeal will be limited.

The problem with AR right now is that you have to hold up your device, and even then, are forced to consume it via a small display. Imagine being able to play Pokemon Go through the Vision Pro, hands free, rather than be confined to your iPhone screen.

Also, not everything is about productivity, or at least, the very narrow definition of it being confined to content creation. My iPad allows me to review my teaching material on a larger screen compared to a smartphone or even a laptop (since I can hold it in portrait mode). With the Vision Pro, I now have a screen theoretically as large as my field of view. Does one not see the promise it holds compared to an 11" or even 13" iPad? And this is a pair of goggles that can be slipped into a handbag when it's time to pack up and go. Something you can't do with an external display or even a larger iPad.

Sometimes, simply being able to do something differently is enough, especially when the "old way" wasn't the best way to begin with.