So, I'm basing this off of last years delivery. Maybe I'm wrong but I see a lot of posts in the carrier threads about people who are just going to sign the print out from apple.com and leave it out for UPS So the driver can leave their iPhones somewhere outside (steps, side door). I live in a very safe neighborhood and fed ex, UPS, USPS have all left packages for me. UPS left a new iMac (no brown box) for me with no problems. Last year, they would leave the iPhone 6 plus as they said too many phones are stolen on launch day since everyone knows they are being delivered that day. When I missed the first delivery, they said I could try and get home for the 2nd attempt or they could hold it at the end of the day at the nearest distributing center. This year, I know I can just change the delivery to the UPS store a town over and pick it up whenever I want to. They wouldn't even deliver last year to my office, since they won't leave the new phone with security or in the mail room, and can't sit around and wait for me to come down to the front.
YMMV