Alright, enough messing about and I'll make a serious post.
I understand that the first round is usually random and impersonal. I don't begrudge anyone for that, and that's why I've been making light of it with my posts.
The power of the villagers lies in the voting record. mscriv pointed that out brilliantly last game when he picked the three wolves out early based on voting record alone before we foolishly lynched him, with me at the head of the charge. I also kept my vote for Rodimus Prime despite his threat, when mscriv pointed out that it was better to back off and keep caution. While you may regard me as calculating, you have to admit I am prone to impulsiveness. Consider that moving forward when I discuss the reason behind my vote.
First, let's consider how the vote started off in my favor.
Mexbearpig voted first, claiming random.org:
I vote for chrmjenkins. His number(11) was the first double that came up on random.org n
iBookG4user followed up a mere 22 minutes later, also claiming random.org. The odds of two people landing on the same person are 1 in 20. For instance, say Mexbearpig got anyone randomly. The probability iBook gets the same person is the probability someone gets any one person independent of all other random votes, since they are essentially both the same independent process. Now, pick out a single player and consider the odds of two people getting that
particular person. That's (1/20)^2,
1/400.
I will vote for chrmjenkins, his number was the first number generated by random.org.
Now, while improbable, that's perfectly possible. So, it's not exactly fair to use that as ammunition without motive and a more detailed analysis. Does he have motive to vote for me? Sure he does. He was a bad guy last game and said himself that he feared my abilities late on in the game:
https://forums.macrumors.com/posts/10926610/
iBookG4user said:
(The power is out, so I'm on my iPhone. I'll post more thorough thoughts on the game once the power comes back on)
Anyways, that was a fun game. It only took me seven games to become a special and have an interesting role . I do believe that you played very well, chris, I was worried for a while! I was considering stating that either SilentPanda or you was a werewolf. Ravenvii even pm'ed me and said that would be hilarious, but I thought that I would be a bit more cautious. In a way I underestimated you a tad, but luckily it worked out in the end.
Now, we return back to the voting record. What have people been complaining about in this thread? People abusing random.org and it leading to little progress. However, if you notice, we're not able to blame anyone person, because everyone does it. Thus, that blame cannot turn into a vote, because it never has focus. What better cover than a direct attack for the people you fear other than the guise of a random vote? iBook could have easily punched the button until he got my number and posted it to show "proof" of his impartiality. It's the perfect way to out a high profile player early on without drawing suspicion to yourself.
Does he have an accomplice? I think so.
philbeeney. He posted a
mere 3 minutes after iBook, and for guess who? Me. Why didn't he use random.org too? Because 1/8000 is just bat**** crazy.
Decisions, decisions. chrmjenkins as he was the first random person to post after ravenvii started the game.
But hey, you may ask "Isn't it possible he just wanted to vote for the wave and used that logic to fluff his post?"
Sure, I'll concede that. But why, then, would he outright lie about my role in previous games?
With regards to chrmjenkins, he does have a way with words, but if you go back through his posts on previous games, there are subtle differences in the way he communicates when he has either a good or bad role to play in the game.
Sorry, but I've never been a bad guy in previous games. Check the first post for the links. In the first simple game, I was a villager. In the first complex game, I was a villager. In the last two complex games, I've been the undertaker. I've never had anything but the interest of the village at heart. Why would you make such a careless post about me unless you were trying to shore up your buddy's logic?
To sum it all up, I don't necessarily suspect Mex. I think ibook may have simply jumped on his actual random vote as an excuse to vote for me.
So, there you have it. You can jump on the random bandwagon and vote for me, or you can test my logic and see if it's right. Just consider this, we have enough substance in this drawn-out vote process to actually have some content to use against people before the first round of voting even closes. If you side with me and I turn out to be wrong, then just lynch me next round. If I'm really that nefarious, you get a bad guy in the first two rounds either way. That's an excellent start.
At the very least, I hope the seer is paying attention. iBook, myself, philbeeney, mscriv; we all deserve scans. Whether it be we are high profile players or there is reasonable guilt, you have some good targets.
